Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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shafer wins lt gov primary ( 90% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-30; known on 2018-07-30; judged wrong by elephantower on 2018-07-30.
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McBath wins GA-07 Dem primary ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-30; known on 2018-07-30; judged right by elephantower on 2018-07-30.
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david kim wins primary in ga-07 ( 30% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-19; known on 2018-07-26; judged wrong by elephantower on 2018-07-30.
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Leslie Roy “Les” Moonves is accused of sexual harassment/assault by at least one woman ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2018-02-11; known on 2020-02-11; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-07-28.
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HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the “tear apart the very stars in heaven” phrase in the prophecy was referring to. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-28; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-31.
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UK Politics: Another cabinet resignation this week ( 56% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-07-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-07-25.
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I am currently doing the “Convict Conditioning” training program. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-07-26; known on 2018-07-21; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2018-07-23.
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Sankar is currently less than 10 posts into the book ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by shardo on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by shardo on 2018-07-23.
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Kawhi Leonard will be on the Spurs as of September 2019 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-24; known on 2019-09-01; judged wrong by davatk on 2018-07-19.
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dc min wage referendum passes ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2018-07-17; known on 2018-07-17; judged wrong by elephantower on 2018-07-17.
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I lose weight (current weight @ 170) ( 60% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-07-16.
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Germany to win the World Cup ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-20; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-07-16.
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Results about my two unjudged wagers to remain unannounced in through June EOM. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-06-19; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2018-07-16.
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Results about my two unjudged wagers to remain unannounced in through June EOM. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-06-19; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2018-07-16.
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Iran to win the World Cup ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-07-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-07-16.
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Iran to formally exit JCPOA in 2018 H1 ( 30% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-07-16.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2018 ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2018-07-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-07-15.
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Politics, US – Former FBI Deputy Andrew McCabe charged for lying under oath by end of June 2018. ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-02; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by max on 2018-07-11.
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Russia will win the world cup ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by max on 2018-06-15; known on 2018-07-16; judged wrong by max on 2018-07-11.
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The July 7th post on Aaron's Polls will get 40 responses or more. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aarongertler on 2018-07-07; known on 2018-07-10; judged right by aarongertler on 2018-07-10.
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UK Police will have the ability to scan people's faces from their cars as they drive past, as they do with License plates ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-07-10.
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No new US tariffs on Chinese goods to go into effect on July 6. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-06-19; known on 2018-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-07-10.
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Boris Johnson will not be sacked over recent Brexit issues within the next year. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-10-03; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-07-09.
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Another character from the Metroid series will be added in Smash for Switch either on release or within 18 months of release. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2020-06-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-07-09.
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Smash for switch will support the use of Gamecube controllers, either on release or within 18 months of release. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2020-06-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-07-09.
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Personal, Productivity – I finish my ML course before 2018-07-09 9:00 UTC ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-07-08; known on 2018-07-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-07-09.
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Personal, Goals – I successfully complete Andrew Ng's Machine Learning course on Coursera by the end of the 27th of August 2018. ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-03; known on 2018-07-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-07-09.
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I'll be using Shiny Umbrella to reduce my typing by at least half in 3 months ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2018-04-08; known on 2018-07-08; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-07-09.
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Violent crime in the US is, on the whole, decreasing with time. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by geofleur on 2018-07-04; known on 2018-07-04; judged right by geofleur on 2018-07-07.
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Politics – Trump claims that the North Koreans were not serious/deceptive about the meeting between him and Kim Jong Un at some point before the end of June 2018. ( 39% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-10; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-07-07.
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Violent crime in the US is, on the whole, decreasing with time. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by geofleur on 2018-07-04; known on 2018-07-04; judged right by geofleur on 2018-07-07.
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My June 30th post on my personal Facebook polling group will get more than 30 responses. https://www.facebook.com/groups/293306464388556/ ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by aarongertler on 2018-06-30; known on 2018-07-04; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2018-07-07.
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Politics, EU – Article 13 of the Copyright Directive passes before the end of June 2018. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-10; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-07-06.
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Personal – I decide to move at least 10% of my EA donation budget to an organisation in the animal welfare cause area before June 2018. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-07-06.
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Personal – I identify as nonbinary or a woman by the end of June 2018. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-25; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-07-06.
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Violent crime in the US is, on the whole, decreasing with time. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by geofleur on 2018-07-04; known on 2018-07-04; judged right by geofleur on 2018-07-07.
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Hillary Clinton will be indicted for the sale of Uranium to Russia ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-07-02.
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For the rest of the month, I will spend less than $75 on food that is NOT from grocery stores. Alcohol and coffee and things like that are counted. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dnti808 on 2018-06-14; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by dnti808 on 2018-07-02.
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The Topps Company will keep the Shadowrun license until at least July 1st, 2018 ( 90% confidence )
Created by DaFranker on 2016-11-30; known on 2018-07-02; judged right by DaFranker on 2018-07-02.
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We will go to war with North Korea ( 17% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by futurulus on 2018-07-01.
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My relationship with L. will still be ongoing as of the end of June 2018 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by imaxwell on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by imaxwell on 2018-06-30.
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Akshat Shrivastava will drop out of the University of Washington ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-06; known on 2018-06-30; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-06-30.
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Germany will win the 2018 FIFA World Cup. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ldor_11 on 2018-06-18; known on 2018-07-15; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2018-06-29.
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Politics, UK – Arrests made in connection to an investigation into the Grenfell Tower fire before 15th of June 2018. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-15; known on 2018-06-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.
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Tech – Apple announces a system for developing applications working on both macOS and iOS at WWDC. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-06-10; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.
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Tech – Apple announces multi-user FaceTime call support at WWDC in 2018. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-06-10; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.
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Tech – Apple announces sleep tracking support for watchOS at WWDC in 2018. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-06-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.
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Tech – TSB has restored online banking access to all its customers by end of 2018-06-10. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.
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Allison Mack (actress) gets arrested within two years ( 55% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2018-03-29; known on 2020-03-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-06-25.
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I will still be using NixOS in three months ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2018-03-23; known on 2018-06-23; judged right by enolan on 2018-06-24.