PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

'I Believe I Can Fly' or whatever was originial to Space Jam ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27.

'I Believe I Can Fly' or whatever was originial to Space Jam ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27.

'I Believe I Can Fly' or whatever was originial to Space Jam ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27.

'I Believe I Can Fly' or whatever was originial to Space Jam ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27.

'I Believe I Can Fly' or whatever was originial to Space Jam ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27.

There will not be a thunderstorm when I go running. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-04-23; known on 2015-04-24; judged right by btrettel on 2015-04-24.

DN will relapse and continue to smoke tobacco within a week ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-23; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-04-23.

I have at least 1 cavity. ( 90% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-04-22.

I will end up going out tonight ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-22; known on 2015-04-22; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-22.

I will fall asleep on the Megabus journey back to London ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-21; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-22.

I will receive a written warning at the disciplinary meeting ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-22.

By Wednesday my piece on the Great Filter on Less Wrong will be at at least +12 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-22; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22.

I will receive a written warning at the disciplinary meeting ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-22.

I get a fine of £250 at the disciplinary meeting ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-04-21.

I get a fine of £200 or greater at the disciplinary meeting ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-04-21.

I get a fine of £100 or greater at the disciplinary meeting ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-22; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-04-21.

I don't get a fine tomorrow at the disciplinary meeting ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-21.

They make a recommendation to the university secretary that the case is heard be the vice chancellor ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-21.

The first train when I'm next travelling back from Canada Water will go straight where I want it to go ( 45% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-21.

I will go out when I get back on Monday ( 50% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-21; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-21.

I will not arrive at Victoria at or before 21:45 ( 70% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-21.

IV will successfully DTHFM before 11:59pm CST today (20 Apr 2015). ( 35% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2015-04-21.

RE will still be in the office at 6:30 ( 60% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2015-04-20.

Today, I will return from the gym before RK returns from his thing. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2015-04-20.

My achilles will be better (enough for me to start running) within 2 more weeks. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-06; known on 2015-04-20; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-20.

I will visit Spain before 2015. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-20.

I will be working as a software developer before 07/01/2015. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-11-17; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-20.

The order of the Wu-Tang given in that Mirror article is the same as on their Wikipedia article ( 70% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-20.

I will make 200 bones on NBA and NFL combined next season ( 75% confidence )

Created by TimmyDurkin on 2014-04-30; known on 2015-04-20; judged right by TimmyDurkin on 2015-04-20.

I will end up showering for longer than 30 minutes. ( 90% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-20; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-20.

I will be able to code a Random Name Generator by the end of the week. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-20.

Someone will ask about packing tomorrow ( 50% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-19; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-20.

FMK will talk to me by or on 19/04 ( 2% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-20; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-04-20.

I will get my favourite seat on the bus ( 62% confidence )

Created by TheBlackFox on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-20; judged wrong by TheBlackFox on 2015-04-20.

I will get my favourite seat on the bus ( 62% confidence )

Created by TheBlackFox on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-20; judged wrong by TheBlackFox on 2015-04-20.

Center party will gain or tie for most seats in Finnish parliamentary election 2015. ( 85% confidence )

Created by kuudes on 2014-11-14; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-04-19.

I will enjoy gymnastics today ( 70% confidence )

Created by FoxyFox21 on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged wrong by FoxyFox21 on 2015-04-19.

My mussel linguine will taste good ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-19.

If I use mussels tonight, I will successfully incorporate them into a good tasting meal ( 50% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-19.

Dad will be in when I wake up ( 33% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-19; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-19.

Everyone will have awoken by the time I get out of bed tomorrow ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-19.

Elder Scrolls Online will sell over 10 million copies within a year of release (across all platforms), becoming the worlds largest MMORPG ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lettergram on 2014-02-09; known on 2015-04-04; judged wrong by jasticE on 2015-04-19.

I will accidentally kill Rory in this BGO game… ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19.

We will win this BGO game. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-19.

I will get over 100 rupees in this BGO game. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19.

I will die at least once in this BGO game. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-19.

I will get a double dice roll at least once in this BGO game. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19.

I will be happy with the amount of revision I've done today ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-18; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-18.

Someone will mention packing up tomorrow ( 50% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-18; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-18.

I will receive a message in the next hour stating how someone is happy to be friends with me. ( 5% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-18.

Statistics

Judged Predictions