Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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I will reach level 12 on Duolingo by June ( 80% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-02; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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Tories win >316 ( 80% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08; known on 2015-05-09; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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It will snow before March ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-08; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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I will make another sling by March ( 90% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-03; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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I will read Winning Ways by March ( 60% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-03; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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More than 3 RDGers will watch WWRY (not including me, or N) ( 70% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-14; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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I will buy a Oneplus ( 40% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-20; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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I will overtake J in Duolingo points by the end of March. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-07; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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I will get into the UNIQ summer school for CS. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-12; known on 2015-04-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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I will get into the UNIQ summer school for Maths. ( 10% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-12; known on 2015-04-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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Ukip will get the highest amount of seats next General Election ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-04; known on 2015-06-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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No party will achieve an overall majority in the House of Commons in the May 2015 general election ( 83% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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At least one English or Welsh incumbent currently on >10% majority will be unseated at the election. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Lib Dems win at most 5 MPs at the next election. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-10-12; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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UKIP wins at least 9 MPs at the next election ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-10-12; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Lib Dems win Cambridge at next election. ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-06; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Ukip will have five or less seats following the UK general election. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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The Labour Party will have the largest number of seats following the UK GE. ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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The Conservative Party will have the largest number of seats following the UK GE. ( 37% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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UKIP will have more seats than the Liberal Democrats following the next UK general election ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Labour will win the most seats in the next UK general election. ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-06; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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My bus will arrive by 11:45 ( 50% confidence )
Created by TheBlackFox on 2015-05-08; known on 2015-05-08; judged right by TheBlackFox on 2015-05-08.
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Nathan will like Peep Show ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-21; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-08.
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The next UK general election will be held on 7 May 2015 ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-07.
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He replies something like, 'just the end?' or 'whole course tbh' on Twitter by midnight ending 2015-05-06 ( 38% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-07.
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We will win the game on BGO ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-06; known on 2015-05-06; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-06.
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I will feel confident after the exam tomorrow ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-06; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-06.
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I will arrive at the exam on time tomorrow ( 90% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-06; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-06.
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The contract gets signed tomorrow ( 60% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-06; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-06.
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Lee is telling the truth ( 10% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-05; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
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Jo is telling the truth ( 65% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-05; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
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David is telling the truth ( 15% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-05; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
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Paul is telling the truth ( 20% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-05; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
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Paul is lying ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-05; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
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Chelsea will win the premier league ( 25% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-06; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
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Juventus will win this game ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-05; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
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My curry will taste good ( 80% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-05; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
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I will do all the revision tasks I have set for myself in the next working day ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
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George Galloway will not appear in the main televised debates in the run up to the general election. ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-03; known on 2015-05-16; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05.
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Nick Clegg will remain in the cabinet until the next general election. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-06; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05.
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Ed Miliband will lead the Labour party to the next general election. ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05.
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Nick Clegg will lead the Lib Dems into the next general election. ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05.
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Any Lab>UKIP defection this parliament ( 30% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05.
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I will move onto the next section of Python, in this online course, by the end of today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04.
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My cat will have food in his bowl when I go to check. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04.
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I will read some more Less Wrong articles by the end of today. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04.
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I will have completed more than 40% of the Python course by the end of today. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04.
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I will have completed more than 40% of the Python course by the end of today. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04.
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I will redownload Tera today, hopefully it will have no problems. ( 75% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04.
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Spurs beat the Clippers ( 75% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-04.