Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Hawks beat the Wizards ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-16.
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Israel does not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-16.
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Brazil, 2014: The federal government will announce that an official, mandatory rationing of electricity use will be imposed on a system-wide basis. ( 25% confidence )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2014-02-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-16.
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Lubos will not respond to Scott Aaronson's recent article or blog post before May 2nd. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-25; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-16.
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The two sections of the exam I have revised for will both come up. ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-13; known on 2015-05-15; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-15.
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The Rust programming language will reach version 1.0.0 by April 4, 2015 (the first six-week cycle after the scheduled beta1). ( 67% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-04-04; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-05-15.
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See CC in there by 14:05 ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-14; known on 2015-05-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-05-14.
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See CC in there by 14:05 ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-14; known on 2015-05-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-05-14.
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That female vocalist on Ab Soul – Double Standards is Anna Wise ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-14.
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See CC in there by 14:05 ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-14; known on 2015-05-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-05-14.
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Real Madrid will advance to the finals of the 2015 Champions League ( 90% confidence )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-05-13; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2015-05-13.
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Real Madrid will win the 2015 Champions League ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-06-06; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-13.
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Every bonus question on the exam will have at least one student get it right. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13.
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No student will get all the bonus questions on the exam. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-14; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13.
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Of my 140 students, at least 5 students will score above 90% on their Calc I final. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-14; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13.
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Bayern Munich will advance to the finals of the 2015 Champions League ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-05-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2015-05-13.
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Bayern Munich will win the 2015 Champions League ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-06-06; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2015-05-13.
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I will get attacked on Tera while leveling because people are cunts. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-11; known on 2015-05-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-12.
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I will reach level 17 on Tera, learn some Python and watch a few episodes of Anime ALL before I go sleep tonight. ( 55% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-11; known on 2015-05-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-12.
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Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-11; known on 2015-05-12; judged right by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-12.
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I predict that Raahul_Kumar will troll this site like he does other ones. ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by BharatSucksUS on 2015-05-11; known on 2015-05-10; judged right by BharatSucksUS on 2015-05-11.
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IEA: US to become world's top oil producer in 5 years ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-05-11.
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Ukip will have over 20 seats after the next UK general election ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-06-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-10.
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Bicyclist fatalities in the US increase from 2012 to 2013 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-10.
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Distracted driving fatalities in the US increase from 2012 to 2013 ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-10.
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I will use all the beansprouts I bought before their use-by date ( 10% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-10.
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By May 8, 2015, my chess rating on the iPhone app will increase to 850. Don't hate on my fantastic rating ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-22; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-05-09.
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My plane will be delayed longer than 30 minutes ( 30% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-09; known on 2015-05-10; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-05-09.
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My flight will be delayed longer than “fifteen minutes”. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-09; known on 2015-05-10; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-05-09.
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The /r/theButton will expire in 2 weeks ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by VoidChronos on 2015-04-25; known on 2015-05-09; judged wrong by VoidChronos on 2015-05-09.
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Rory would have heard of E.S. Posthumus. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-08; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-09.
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I win money in total after all my May 7th bets close ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Following the 2015 UK general election, no party will hold a majority; however, it will be possible for two parties combined to hold a majority. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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The average of the big seat predictions overstates Tory seats ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-05-07; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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I agree with the statement “there was no shy Tory effect” ( 90% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-05-07; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Conservatives win Thanet South at next election ( 40% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-06; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Nick Clegg will still be leader of the Lib Dems a week following the UK GE ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-01; known on 2015-05-14; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-08.
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Tories win >325 seats ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08; known on 2015-05-09; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-08.
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The finnish government that is formed after the scheduled elections on 2015 will have exactly 2 parties that each have enough members of parliament to force the government mp number to lower than 100 and the government is formed before midsummer. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2015-03-27; known on 2015-06-19; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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Israeli Election: Benjamin Netanyahu will be the next prime minister ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Rigulel on 2015-03-07; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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The next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom will be Ed Miliband ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-14; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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Following the 2015 UK general election, a single party will hold a majority in the House of Commons. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-05-08; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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Following the 2015 UK general election, no party will hold a majority; furthermore, no two parties combined will hold a majority, with the exception of a 'grand coalition' between Labour and the Conservatives. ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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The government following the next UK election will not be a formal coalition. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-06; known on 2015-05-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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The next government will be a coalition ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-01; known on 2015-05-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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The UK will have another coalition government after the election in 2015 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RogerE on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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The Labour party gain an absolute majority in the next British general election ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by a0c4a123f7 on 2013-11-13; known on 2015-05-09; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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I will get a distinction at grade 8 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-06-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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I will get a merit or above at grade 8 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-06-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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I will pass my grade 8 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.