Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Based on age, Jacqueline Susann committed suicide according to Wikipedia ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-15.
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Based on age, Jacqueline Susann died from chronic or acute substance abuse, ingestion, or similar, according to Wikipedia ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-15.
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I will have a matrixeqtl result for the Myers data by tomorrow night. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-04-13; judged wrong by Porejide on 2015-04-13.
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QPR will beat Chelsea ( 15% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-12; known on 2015-04-12; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-13.
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I will complete all revision tasks to my satisfaction tomorrow ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-12-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-12.
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I will stay in tomorrow ( 90% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-12-04; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-12.
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We will “win” Escape the Room tonight. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-04-12; judged wrong by Porejide on 2015-04-12.
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QPR will beat Chelsea ( 15% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-12; known on 2015-04-12; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-13.
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Chelsea will beat QPR ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-12; known on 2015-04-12; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-12.
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The QPR-Chelsea match will end in a draw ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-12; known on 2015-04-12; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-12.
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My next Facebook notification will be from a group ( 90% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-11-05; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-12.
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The Facebook message will be from Nathan ( 80% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-04-12; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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The Facebook message will be from Ryan ( 10% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-04-12; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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The Facebook message will be from Kat ( 10% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-04-12; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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The shower will be fixed by tomorrow ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-11-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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I will not run into Kat tomorrow ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-11-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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I will see Ryan tomorrow ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-11-04; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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I will be on time to meet Nathan tomorrow ( 80% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-11-04; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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Jacquelyn K. will Skype me sometime in the next 3 weeks (or will try to do so, but will be constrained by factors which are my responsibility). ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-21; known on 2015-04-10; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-04-10.
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I will meet Felix before 8 o'clock tomorrow ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-07; known on 2015-09-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-09.
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Molly will be with Felix when I arrive ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-07; known on 2015-09-04; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-09.
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Boston Marathon bombing perpetrated by ethnically white male. ( 61% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-04-09.
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'The Internet has a greater reach than television' by/during 2014 (America) ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by supinf on 2015-08-05.
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'The Internet has a greater reach than television' by/during 2014 (America) ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by supinf on 2015-08-05.
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They'll hire me. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ThetaAurigae on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by ThetaAurigae on 2015-04-08.
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The mitten will still be there on my next run. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-04-08; known on 2015-04-08; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-04-08.
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Wisconsin will beat Duke ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-06; known on 2015-04-07; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-07.
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will.i.am feat. Cody Wise – It's My Birthday in Sunfly karaoke website catalogue ( 75% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-06; known on 2015-04-06; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-06.
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There will be 4 people or more (including myself) at the first meeting of the Chicago rationality group. ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-04-04; known on 2015-04-06; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-04-06.
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There will be 4 people or more (including myself) at the first meeting of the Chicago rationality group. ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-04-04; known on 2015-04-06; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-04-06.
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There will be between 6 and 15 people at the first meeting of the Chicago rationality group. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-04-04; known on 2015-04-05; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-04-06.
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I will get out of bed at or before 7:00 tomorrow. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-04-04; known on 2015-04-05; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-04-05.
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She says there isn't a KFC in Winchester ( 70% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-05; known on 2015-04-05; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-05.
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/r/thebutton does not get to zero before midnight BST 4th/5th April ( 60% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-04-03; known on 2015-04-05; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-04-05.
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McDonald's open at 5AM today ( 75% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-04; known on 2015-04-04; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-05.
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31 or more people will attend the SF EA dinner conspiracy event (https://www.facebook.com/events/759621220789885/) ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dusk on 2015-03-13; known on 2015-03-20; judged right by dusk on 2015-04-05.
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Alastair Roche will return to Melbourne from his San Francisco trip convinced to stay there. Convinced means on asking 'you should probably go to live in San Francisco permanently soon', he says 'yes', where the only alternative is 'no' and 'maybe' is not ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RyanCarey on 2013-10-19; known on 2013-12-11; judged wrong by dusk on 2015-04-05.
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I will see Ryan this week ( 90% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-04-05; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-04.
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Sam will wake up before I leave. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-04-03; known on 2015-04-04; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-04-04.
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/r/thebutton does not get to zero before midnight BST 3rd/4th April ( 80% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-04-03; known on 2015-04-04; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-04-04.
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/r/thebutton does not get to zero before midnight BST 3rd/4th April ( 80% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-04-03; known on 2015-04-04; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-04-04.
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I will download 3-6 Android apps in the next month. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2015-02-02; known on 2015-03-02; judged wrong by Calien on 2015-04-04.
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I will download 2-10 Android apps in the next month. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2015-02-02; known on 2015-03-02; judged wrong by Calien on 2015-04-04.
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HP MOR : The source of magic stores “souls” (brain states) long term and is able to simulate them, but only those of non-Muggles. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2015-02-02; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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HP MOR : The source of magic stores “souls” (brain states) long term and is able to simulate them, but only those of non-Muggles. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2015-02-02; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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The highest HIV prevalence in that table is over 10% ( 48% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-04; known on 2015-04-04; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-04.
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R says that A of A&P is a wrap up job ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-04; known on 2015-04-04; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-04.
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R says that P of A&P is a wrap up job ( 30% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-04; known on 2015-04-04; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-04.
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Now that Goodreads has been acquired by Amazon, “I doubt it will survive in its current form for more than 2 years.” — Joey Hess ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-04-01; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2015-04-04.
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Caro Emerald – A Night Like This in the Sunfly karaoke website catalogue ( 54% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-03; known on 2015-04-03; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-03.