PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

FMK will talk to me by or on 03/05 ( 14% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-05-04; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-05-04.

I will geht at least 30xp playing Space Alert tonight. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Chri on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-04; judged right by Chri on 2015-05-04.

Wie will only play Space Alert tonight. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Chri on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-04; judged right by Chri on 2015-05-04.

Amanda Knox will be found guilty by the Italian Supreme Court. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by adbge on 2014-01-31; known on 2018-01-31; judged wrong by CarlShulman on 2015-05-04.

Floyd Mayweather will defeat Manny Pacquiao. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-05-01; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by btrettel on 2015-05-03.

I will complete everything on my revision list before I leave the library ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-03.

Area of a regular n-gon is ns^2/(4tan(pi/n)) ( 46% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03.

My thread on the League Forums has likely been downvoted. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02.

The temperature for today will be 14-15c when I check BBC weather. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02.

The /r/theButton will expire in a week ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by VoidChronos on 2015-04-25; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by timujin on 2015-05-02.

I will go to the library today ( 90% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-02.

I go to P this week/c 2015-04-27 Monday ( 70% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.

I will get hired as a full employee (non-contractor) by a software company within a week from now. ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-05-02.

I will end up disputing a claim Edmund makes before I go home ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-01; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-02.

Moises will make a Facebook status with the word 'haha' or some laughter variant before the end of the day ( 70% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-01; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-02.

I finish first read-through of the Topology notes by midnight ending this Friday ( 45% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.

Action Ronson – Baby Blue (ft Chance the Rapper) on Sunfly Karaoke website catalogue by 2nd May 2015 or thereabouts (conditional on checking 'thereabouts' as judged by me) ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.

Drake 5'7" or shorter conditional on sensible consensus ( 50% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.

Drake 5'8" or shorter conditional on sensible consensus ( 60% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.

Drake 5'9" or shorter conditional on sensible consensus ( 70% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.

Hawks beat the Nets ( 95% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-02.

I will not run into any of the LSE people I met at Molly's today ( 80% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-01; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-02.

HP MoR: any superintelligent or FOOMing AGI/AI will appear as a character/device in the story ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-05-01.

My team in the Good Judgment Project (PredictionBook on steroids) will finish in the top 5 of the 29 total teams. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-07-30; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-05-01.

Nosek’s project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=60% of them are failed replications ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by lweismantel on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by hedges on 2015-05-01.

Nosek's project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=30% of them are failed replications. ( 73% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by lweismantel on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by hedges on 2015-05-01.

Jacquelyn K. will Skype me sometime in the next 3 weeks (or will try to do so, but will be constrained by factors which are my responsibility). ( 10% confidence )

Created by EliTyre on 2015-04-10; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-05-01.

I will meet up with Felix in London prior to exams ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-06; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-01.

I will do 75 sit-ups before I go to sleep tonight ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-01.

I will be awarded the NSF GRFP this year. ( 30% confidence )

Created by spicedpiano on 2014-08-01; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by spicedpiano on 2015-05-01.

Survivor will have an all winners season for season 30 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by mad on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by mad on 2015-05-01.

I would have made over 100 predictions by the end of this month. ( 90% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-01.

Tesla motors' next product release will be a home battery ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OisinMoran on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by OisinMoran on 2015-05-01.

I go to M this week/c 2015-04-27 Monday ( 62% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-01.

I'll go to the Southgate student thing ( 70% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-01.

My calibration will be better than Rory's. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-01.

Bulls beat the Bucks ( 95% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-01.

Rory will attain 300 achievement points on BGO before the end of the month. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-30.

THIS ANIME I LOVE WILL HAVE ITS LATEST EPISODE RELEASED WHEN I GO TO CHECK. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-30.

In the next book in the Twenty-Sided Sorcererss series It will turn out that there is some connection between Jade and dragons. ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-30.

Tim Cook will be ousted as Apple CEO within the next 2 years. ( 31% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by andrevan on 2013-04-27; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by krazemon on 2015-04-30.

Grizzlies beat the Blazers ( 60% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-30.

Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2006-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 76% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.

Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2005-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 70% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.

Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2004-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )