Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
-
Sasha will come with me to Ms Cupcake in Brixton tomorrow ( 90% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-29.
-
Ms Cupcake will be selling red velvet cupcakes tomorrow ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-29.
-
Ms Cupcake will be selling red velvet cookie sandwiches tomorrow ( 65% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-29.
-
Upon telling the next group of friends I meet in person, they will find it appropriate, or not incongruent with my general persona, why I've been labelled a 'guilty crush'. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-28; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-29.
-
I won't get the math tutor position. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by azax1 on 2015-04-29.
-
Rockets beat the Mavs ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-29.
-
The Emory REU will reject me. ( 80% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-02-23; judged right by azax1 on 2015-04-29.
-
That verse on No Diggity was done by a female MC ( 40% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
-
Duration of Mortal Man is 14:10 in the music player ( 34% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
-
Duration of Mortal Man is 14:06 in the music player ( 17% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
-
He says something along the lines of 'It only takes one to rek me' by 02:00 ( 22% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
-
One or more of Abbey Road, White Album, Sgt Pepper has a Metacritic critic score ( 61% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
-
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
-
Roger Ebert directed Beyond the Valley of the Dolls, conditional on it existing ( 39% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-28.
-
She says 'Yes' or similar that LGBT won lots of awards ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-28.
-
I will finish ahead of Nathan this game ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-28.
-
We will win this game on BGO (provided Nathan's internet remains on) ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-28.
-
TrikeApps will merge my PredictionBook API pull request within a week. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-28.
-
Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 25 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27.
-
I will make sure to read through some Less Wrong articles today! ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.
-
that is a guy ( 75% confidence )
Created by TheBlackFox on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by TheBlackFox on 2015-04-27.
-
My hair will be complimented next time I go clubbing ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-05-21; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-27.
-
I will do 50 sit-ups before I go to sleep ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-27.
-
My money will come through by the end of tomorrow ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-27.
-
Synaptitude will make it into YC S15 batch. Our application: http://synaptitude.me/blog/our-ycombinator-s15-application/ On average a 3% acceptance rate. ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2015-03-26; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by lettergram on 2015-04-27.
-
A's song is Billionaire ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-27.
-
A's song is Billionaire ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-27.
-
I will clean up my room tomorrow. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.
-
I will beat my lane opponent in this game of league. ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.
-
We will win this game of league. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.
-
I will get the lane I want in the next game of league. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.
-
'I Believe I Can Fly' or whatever was originial to Space Jam ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27.
-
'I Believe I Can Fly' or whatever was originial to Space Jam ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27.
-
A's song is Billionaire ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-27.
-
T's song is larger than life ( 47% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27.
-
FMK will talk to me by or on 26/04 ( 8% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27.
-
Total World population will begin stagnating around the late 2040s after relatively weak growth throughout the next 20 years, with most of that growth coming out of Africa and South-East Asia ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by OferBaratz on 2015-04-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by timujin on 2015-04-27.
-
I will do extensive revision for at least two of my modules by the time I go to sleep tonight ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-27.
-
Wizards beat the Raptors ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-27.
-
Jake will go to Ohio State. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-15; known on 2015-02-15; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-26.
-
Cavs beat the Celtics ( 98% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-26.
-
I will not burn my Pizza tonight. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26.
-
Fiona Apple – Paper Bag on Sunfly karaoke website catalogue ( 35% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-26.
-
Roman will be on league of legends when I log in. ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26.
-
That Friend Request is from Toaff ( 55% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-26; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-26.
-
The temperature for today, when I check BBC weather, will be around 17-18c. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-26; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26.
-
Warriors beat the Pelicans ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-26.
-
I will do at least 40 pushups today ( 85% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-25; known on 2015-04-26; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26.
-
DN will drink tonight ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-25; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-04-25.
-
H.A. will not schedule the test today. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-25.