Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Magnus Carlsen will officially accuse Hans Niemann of cheating in an over the board tournament ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 142 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-09-22; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-29.
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Jeremy Corbyn will become PM by 2022. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by missbethann on 2017-10-26; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2023-01-05.
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Boris Johnson PM in Jan 2023 ( 20% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nathanpmyoung on 2022-07-06; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by nathanpmyoung on 2023-01-05.
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I will travel to New York in September 2022. ( 65% confidence )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2022-10-01; judged wrong by peterbarnett on 2023-01-04.
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I will move to New York in 2022. Where “move” means that I have a bed which is mine in New York. ( 40% confidence )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by peterbarnett on 2023-01-04.
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COVID – A single strain that circumvents immunity from earlier infections causes more than 10M infections globally by end of 2021. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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World – Russia successfully invades Ukraine and China invades Taiwan by the end of 2022. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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COVID – There is a new dominant strain of COVID replacing Omicron by end of 2022, and it is derived from Omicron. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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World – A country not currently known to have nuclear weapons tests a functioning nuclear warhead in 2022 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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[Covid origin:] Definitive evidence will be found concerning an accidental lab escape by 2023 ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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World – Will any new country become members of NATO in 2022? ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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Politics, Finland – Finland starts process to join NATO by end of 2022 ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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Dad gets a seat on the Otago Regional Council. ( 65% confidence )
Created by peterbarnett on 2022-08-02; known on 2022-12-08; judged right by peterbarnett on 2023-01-02.
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Copyright on Steamboat Willy will be extended in some manner past 2023. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-30; known on 2023-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2023-01-02.
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There will be no more lockdown due to Covid in Paris before the end of 2022. ( 66% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tot on 2023-01-02.
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I will travel to Japan in 2022. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tot on 2023-01-02.
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Le premier clip de Cent-quatorze sera fini en 2022. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Tot on 2022-01-21; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by Tot on 2023-01-02.
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China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. ( 7% confidence; 23 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2023-01-02.
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The Californian 2021 fire season will burn more than 4,257,863 acres (as reported by a CalFire page such as https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/ or https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2020/) ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lithp on 2021-04-14; known on 2022-02-01; judged wrong by lithp on 2023-01-02.
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No open source Minecraft client before 2023 ( 57% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2023-01-01.
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Elon Musk goes full Howard Hughes within five years ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-05; known on 2027-06-05; judged right by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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Twitter will suffer a large scale (global or multi-continent) outage lasting more than 1 hour on or before March 31, 2023 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-11-20; known on 2023-04-01; judged right by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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One British Pound (£1 GBP) will trade for less than One US Dollar ($1 USD) before the end of 2022 ( 95% confidence )
Created by arrowinthedark on 2022-08-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2023-01-01.
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Alaska bill SB140, which “would ban trans girls and women from participating in sports in accordance with their gender identity” will pass in 2022. ( 75% confidence )
Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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Joe Rogan will not lose his Spotify podcast (e.g., Spotify will not ask him or force him to step away) in 2022. ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-12-31; judged right by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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There will be a total of less than 5 school shootings in 2022, according to the NBC school shooting tracker. (see: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/school-shooting-tracker-n969951=2019&how-we-count=undefined) ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by adanvers on 2022-04-01; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-01.
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There will be a total of less than 5 school shootings in 2022, according to the NBC school shooting tracker. (see: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/school-shooting-tracker-n969951=2019&how-we-count=undefined) ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by adanvers on 2022-04-01; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-01.
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World of Warcraft will be shut dow before 2023 ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by silacoid on 2015-08-05; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by drakino on 2023-01-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2022 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2022 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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US will have universal health care system by 2022 ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by amadeu on 2018-11-12; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately negative ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly negative ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly negative ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] neutral/meh/don't care/his government didn't last long enough for me to have an opinion ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly positive ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately positive ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly positive ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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A Star Wars movie is released in December 2022 ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2022-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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an impeachment resolution against Biden is introduced before 2023 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technillogue on 2021-01-14; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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The USA military will use force to remove or help remove the USA government (troops in the streets or the capitol or some other institutions). ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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Mind Management, Not Time Management will cross the 25,000-copies-sold threshold by the end of 2022. ( 70% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2022-10-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by kadavy on 2023-01-01.
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The number of school shootings on the NBC tracker for 2022 exceeds 9 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-01.
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There will be a total of less than 5 school shootings in 2022, according to the NBC school shooting tracker. (see: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/school-shooting-tracker-n969951=2019&how-we-count=undefined) ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by adanvers on 2022-04-01; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-01.
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Magnus Carlsen will officially accuse Hans Niemann of cheating in an over the board tournament ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-09-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-01.
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Vladimir Putin become a defendant in the International Criminal Court before 2023 ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-20; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-01.
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'Avatar: The Way of Water' will domestically gross more than $650 million by January 31, 2023 (inclusive) ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-01; known on 2023-01-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-01.
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Ethereum price will reach a new all time high in 2022 ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-05; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-01.
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I have visible lower abs by new year 2023 ( 45% confidence )
Created by Mckiev on 2022-06-24; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Mckiev on 2023-01-01.
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Open AI will announce a new language model at least 100x bigger than GPT-3 (175Gb) in number of parameters before the end of 2022 ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by razcle on 2021-07-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.