PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Any film to outgross “Captain Marvel” in 2019 ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-29.

A non-Marvel film to outgross “Captain Marvel” in 2019 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-02.

A film not produced by Disney or a Disney subsidiary to be the top-grossing 2019 film ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include fewer than five Americans in the top 10 ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.

[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include at least 7 Americans in the top 10 ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.

[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include at least six Americans in the top 10 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.

[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include at least five Americans in the top 10 ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.

[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to give an American top spot ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.

[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to give Angela Merkel top spot ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.

[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to give Theresa May top spot ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.

[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include anyone from mainland China in top 10 ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.

[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.

[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include Estonia Reform Party leader Kaja Kallas ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.

[Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] end of production cuts ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2019-07-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-10.

[Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration but reducing scale (i.e., cutting less than 1.2 MMbpd) ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2019-07-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-10.

[Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration and deepening of cuts (i.e., cutting more than 1.2 MMbpd) ( 27% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2019-07-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-10.

[Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration of present cuts but no change in scale from 1.2 MMbpd ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2019-07-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-10.

Abrams runs for president in 2020 ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-02-05.

I will get to 67kg by EOY 2019 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2019-03-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2020-01-01.

No Brexit by EOY 2019 ( 37% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by waveman on 2019-03-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2020-01-01.

The web page had different behavior before a recent code change. ( 75% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-16.

I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-15). ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-15; known on 2019-03-22; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-22.

Soyuz MS-14 to launch as scheduled on August 22, 2019 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-15; known on 2019-08-22; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-22.

Soyuz MS-13 to launch as scheduled on July 6, 2019 ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-15; known on 2019-07-06; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-09.

Beto O'Rourke becomes the 2020 Democratic nominee ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-22.

[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2025 ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01.

[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2024 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01.

[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2023 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01.

[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2022 ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01.

[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2021 ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.

[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2020 ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-02.

[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] GBPUSD (i.e., the pound will weaken) ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-03.

[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Ethereum (Coinbase) ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-02.

[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Bitcoin (Coinbase) ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-02.

[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] VIX ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-03.

[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] gold (LBMA 10:30 am) ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-02.

[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Brent crude oil ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-02.

[Personal] I will be able to 100 consecutive push-ups six weeks from now ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-24.

Blackout in Venezuela continues through Monday, 3/18/2019 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-03-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-16.

[Politics] A Democratic candidate other than Yang to propose UBI before the second debate ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-18.

[Commodities: EIA's April forecast relative to March forecast will be higher for] 2020 US crude oil production ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-10.

[Commodities: EIA's April forecast relative to March forecast will be higher for] 2019 US crude oil production ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-10.

Taiwan to participate in World Health Assembly in May 2019 (observer status counts) ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to meet in March 2019 ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

[Fighting] Max Holloway to beat Dustin Poirier at UFC 236 ( 70% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-15.

[Politics: Israel's 2019 legislative election] to see Likud gain seats (from current 30) ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-10.

[Politics: Israel's 2019 legislative election] to be held as scheduled on April 9, 2019 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-09.

[Politics: Indonesia's 2019 general election] to re-elect Joko Widodo as president ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-18; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.

[Politics: Indonesia's 2019 general election] to be held as scheduled on April 17, 2019 ( 94% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-18; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-17.

The Urbit network will never have >50.000 users over the span of a month. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-03-12; known on 2100-01-01.

Blackout in Venezuela continues through Friday ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-12; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-16.

Libyan crude oil production to average above 1 MMbpd for 2019 Q4 ( 72% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-12; known on 2020-01-15; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-15.

Libyan crude oil production to average above 1 MMbpd for 2019 Q3 ( 67% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-12; known on 2019-10-15; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-10.

Libyan crude oil production to average above 1 MMbpd for 2019 Q2 ( 56% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-12; known on 2019-07-15; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-10.

Maduro ousted before end of 2019 ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.

Blackout in Venezuela continues through Wednesday ( 66% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-10; known on 2019-03-14; judged right by pranomostro on 2019-03-14.

Guaido invokes Article 187 on the Venezuelan constitution before Jan 1, 2021 ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-11.

Blackout in Venezuela continues through Monday ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-10; known on 2019-03-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-12.

I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-08). ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-09; known on 2019-03-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-15.

Hungrybox will not a drop a set in Melee in 2019 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by wheat on 2019-03-08; known on 2020-01-01.

The Independent Group (TIG), or its successor party, to win more than 10 seats in a 2019 general election ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-08; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.

Air Jordan 1 UNC Off-White X Nike collaboration sneakers will increase in value to at least $1000 in the next 9 months ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by prophetofprofit on 2019-03-07; known on 2019-12-07.

Someone to climb Uluru within three months after doing so is banned on October 26, 2019 ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-07; known on 2020-02-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.

Number of human truck drivers in the US to fall by 50% by 2024 EOY ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-07; known in 8 days.

Donald Trump Jr. (Donald John Trump Jr.) (born December 31, 1977) has more than five children that he admits paternity of within ten (10) years ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-03-06; known on 2029-03-06.

[Commodities] Palladium price at end of September 2019 to be lower than 1510 USD per troy ounce ( 58% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Matt Schnell to beat Louis Smolka ( 70% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-10.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Sergio Moraes to beat Anthony Martin ( 70% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-10.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Alex White to beat Dan Moret ( 75% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-10.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Tim Means to beat Niko Price ( 75% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-10.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] EZdS to beat Curtis Millender ( 75% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-10.

[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] between 26,000 and 30,000 ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-01.

[Politics] 10 or more candidates to qualify for first Democratic primary debate ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.

[Politics] 10 or more candidates to qualify for second Democratic primary debate ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-01.

[Politics] Singapore to hold general election in 2019 ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[Politics] Singapore to hold general election by 3Q19 EOQ ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.

[IPO] Didi IPO in 2019 ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.

[IPO] Didi IPO in 2019 H1 ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[IPO] Crowdstrike IPO in 2019 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-13.

[IPO] Crowdstrike IPO in 2019 H1 ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-13.

[IPO] Airbnb IPO in 2019 ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[IPO] Airbnb IPO in 2019 H1 ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[IPO] Palantir IPO in 2019 ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[IPO] Rackspace IPO in 2019 H1 ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[IPO] Rackspace IPO in 2019 ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[IPO] Pinterest IPO in 2019 H1 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-17.

[IPO] Pinterest IPO in 2019 ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-17.

[IPO] Cloudflare IPO in 2019 H1 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[IPO] Cloudflare IPO in 2019 ( 64% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-12.

[IPO] Slack IPO in 2019 H1 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[IPO] Slack IPO in 2019 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[IPO] Palantir IPO in 2019 H1 ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

Uber IPO valuation bigger than Lyft's, conditional on 2019 IPOs ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-13.

[Fighting] A UFC champion to move to a different promotion (e.g., ONE or Bellator) ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[Fighting] No more UFC “numbered events” to be canceled or rescheduled in 2019 ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-02.

[Fighting] Namajunas and Andrade to fight at UFC 237 as scheduled ( 80% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-05-12; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-12.

[Fighting] Namajunas vs. Andrade to be the main event at UFC 237, conditional on their bout not being canceled/postponed ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-05-12; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-12.

[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 2019 EOY ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 3Q19 EOQ ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-01.

[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 2Q19 EOQ ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.

Statistics

Recent Predictions