PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Apple will launch an ~4 inch iphone in the next 18 months, that has the same full screen display of the newer models and 5-7nm CPUs ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lettergram on 2019-01-09; known on 2020-06-10; judged right by lettergram on 2020-04-15.

[Politics] Centre Party (Keskerakond) to remain in government after the 2019 Estonian elections. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-03-04; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-24.

Estonia to be elected to the UN Security Council for the 2020-2021 period. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-09-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-25.

[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Two-Sided Laplace (Sophisticated) ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-21.

[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Two-Sided Laplace (Naïve) ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.

[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] One-Sided Laplace ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.

[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Reach (Sophisticated) ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.

[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Reach (Naïve) ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.

[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Betting Odds ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.

US & China to announce end to trade war in Q1 2019. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

One of {Uber, Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook, Magic Leap, Coinbase} will collapse. ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known in 8 days.

Between 2019 and 2030 the price of bitcoin will rise above 15000$ per bitcoin ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2030-01-01.

The biggest federated social network will have at least 10 times more users than the biggest federated social network on 2019-01-01. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2030-01-02.

At least 20 of the top 100 websites (Alexa rank) will only be usable (core functionality) after having paid a fee ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2030-01-02.

UK – Drone sighting over Heathrow on 2019-01-08 leads to an arrest before or on 2019-01-15. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-01-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-23.

UK – Drone sighting over Heathrow on 2019-01-08 fails to be substantiated (reinforced by other evidence and authorities describe as credible) before or on 2019-01-15. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-01-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-23.

I have sex at least once in the next 3 months ( 50% confidence )

Created by playablecharacter on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-04-06; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2019-04-06.

[Personal] I will go to the gym 12x in the remaining 24 days in January. ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-23.

[Books] I will finish Vogel's biography of DXP by February EOM. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-18.

[Books] I will finish reading “Restless Empire” by January EOM. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-01.

“We will not discover a way to create even small worlds (e.g. a house-sized world)” ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-07; known on 2101-01-01.

“We will not be able to simulate a Eukaryotic cell (2^46-2^47 atoms) with high-fidelity classical physics at more than 0.1% of real time” ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-07; known on 2101-01-01.

I will move to another city by the end of 2019. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

Politics, UK – Fitch, Moody's, or S&P next downgrade the United Kingdom's long-term local or foreign currency issuer ratings on or before the 31st of July 2019. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-08-05.

Politics, UK – Fitch, Moody's, or S&P next downgrade the United Kingdom's long-term local or foreign currency issuer ratings before the 30th of March 2019. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known on 2019-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-30.

Politics, US – Trump declares a state of emergency prior to the 1st of February 2019. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-02-08.

Randy Fitchner doesn't get fired ( 95% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2019-03-05.

Mike Tomlin doesn't get fired ( 70% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2019-03-05.

Keith Butler gets fired ( 50% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2019-03-05.

The Steelers don't continue with Antonio Brown ( 70% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2019-03-05.

The Steelers don't pick up Dupree's $9M option ( 80% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2019-07-16.

The US government shutdown will end before April 1, 2019. ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.

The US government shutdown will end before March 1, 2019. ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.

The US government shutdown will end before February 1, 2019. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.

I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-04). ( 15% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-01-11; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-11.

WTI forward curve to be upsloped for all of 1Q19. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-28.

All charges against Meng Wanzhou to be dropped in Q1 2019. ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

I will leave the country at least once before March 1. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-28.

I will finish “Stories of the Sahara” in January. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-01.

Donald Trump to be impeached in 2019 ( 24% confidence; 25 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-19.

[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] greater than $70/barrel ( 14% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] between $60 and $70/barrel ( 51% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-01.

[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] between $50 and $60/barrel ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] less than $50/barrel ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

I will move before 2020 ( 20% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.

I will visit Japan before 2020 ( 94% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-07.

TSLA Q2 2019 net income will be $150M or less. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2019-08-03.

Same-sex marriage to be legalized in at least one more EU member in 2019. ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.

Brent crude to remain above WTI throughout 1Q19 ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-04-05; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-01.

Brent crude to be above $60/barrel by end of January ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-01.

Gillespie to beat Medeiros at UFC Fight Night 143 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-01-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-20.

Hernandez to beat Cerrone at UFC Fight Night 143 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-20.

VanZant to beat Ostovich at UFC Fight Night 143 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-01-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-20.

Dillashaw to beat Cejudo at UFC Fight Night 143 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-20.

The US 10y-1y yield curve will invert in 2019. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-03.

South Korea to sign a peace treaty with North Korea in 2019. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.

[Fighting] UFC 245 to occur in 2019 ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-17.

I will read one book per month until the end of 2019 (regardless of book length). ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by avi on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by avi on 2019-02-13.

[I (Bruno Parga) have been a major contributor to at least this many new features on Predictionbook] 3+ ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.

[I (Bruno Parga) have been a major contributor to at least this many new features on Predictionbook] 2 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.

[I (Bruno Parga) have been a major contributor to at least this many new features on Predictionbook] 1 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-11.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly positive ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately positive ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly positive ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] neutral/meh/don't care/his government didn't last long enough for me to have an opinion ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly negative ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately negative ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly negative ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.

The Belgian federal government formation takes at least three months from the date of the election ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-09-11; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-09-11.

The African National Congress wins the South African presidential elections ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-09-11; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.

The Taliban control most of Afghanistan including Kabul ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

Mauricio Macri is re-elected President of Argentina ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-12-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-03.

The Chavista regime rules Venezuela ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

Bulgaria has applied to join ERM-II (a prerequisite for adopting the euro) ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.

Personal: I still read reddit frequently ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.

Personal: I still actively use Facebook and follow friends ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.

[My total days exercised this year:] 170 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-03.

[My total days exercised this year:] 180 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-03.

[My total days exercised this year:] 190 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-03.

[My total days exercised this year:] 200 ( 80% confidence )