Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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“Dow above current value of 25000” ( 51% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Bitcoin above Ethereum” ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Bitcoin above 5000” ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Bitcoin above 3000” ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Bitcoin above 1000” ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Ginsberg [sic!] still alive” ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Trump’s approval rating below 40” ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Trump’s approval rating below 50” ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Polls show more people support the leading Democrat than the leading Republican” ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by amadeu on 2020-03-17.
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“Trump is still leading in prediction markets to be Republican nominee” ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Beto O’Rourke leads the Democratic field” ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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“Joe Biden leads the Democratic field” ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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“Kamala Harris leads the Democratic field” ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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“Bernie Sanders leads the Democratic field” ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-04-09.
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Tom Brady is under 40. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-26; known on 2019-01-26; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-26.
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China will increase their cap on solar production in 2019 to at least 20 GW before the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2019-01-26; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-03-23.
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Within one month, MD will have concluded that JQ worked out ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2019-01-25; known on 2019-02-25; judged right by peter_hurford on 2019-04-09.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-25). ( 15% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-25; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-02.
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AR gives us the okay for publishing our project on CC-PA ( 80% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2019-01-24; known on 2019-02-08; judged right by peter_hurford on 2019-02-11.
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[Personal] I will leave the country this weekend. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2019-01-28; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-28.
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[Politics] Trump will choose not to run for a second term in 2020. ( 14% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by KangaRookie on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-04.
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[Politics] Donald Trump to publicly express support for Taiwanese independence in 2019 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Commodities] US crude oil inventories to be lower as of 2019-01-25 relative to 2019-01-18 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2019-01-30; judged wrong by tony77 on 2019-01-31.
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[Commodities] US crude oil inventories to be lower as of 2019-01-18 relative to 2019-01-11 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2019-01-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-28.
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[Fighting] Khabib Nurmagomedov to fight Conor McGregor in 2019 ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Dominick Cruz to fight in 2019 ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Personal] I will get out of this city this weekend ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2019-01-28; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-28.
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I will do eight hours of productive work today. ( 20% confidence )
Created by dmwit on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-01-22; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-01-22.
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I will attend go club today. ( 30% confidence )
Created by dmwit on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-01-22; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-01-22.
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I will do six hours of productive work today. ( 90% confidence )
Created by dmwit on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-01-22; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-01-22.
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The winner of the 2019 World Snooker Championship to be British ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-05-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-07.
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Emperor Akihito to abdicate as scheduled on 2019-04-30 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-30.
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Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 H1 ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 Q1 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump's next meeting, should it occur before February EOM, to take place in Vietnam ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-28.
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[Politics] Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump to meet by February EOM ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-28.
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[Fighting] Khabib Nurmagomedov's next fight to be against Tony Ferguson, and to happen in 2019 H1 ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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My donation will arrive in time for me to be included in the CEA donor lottery ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2019-01-20; known on 2019-01-24; judged right by enolan on 2019-01-23.
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My date proposal will be rejected ( 75% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2019-01-20; known on 2019-01-21; judged right by enolan on 2019-01-21.
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“Global carbon emissions will increase” ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018” ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“DeepMind will release an AlphaZero update, or new app, capable of beating humans and existing computer programs at a task in a new domain” ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“Fully autonomous self-driving cars will not be commercially available as taxis or for sale” ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain” ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018” ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“No additional countries will adopt a universal basic income” ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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“Malaria deaths will decrease” ( 85% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“Neither India nor China will enter a recession” ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Narendra Modi will continue as Indian prime minister after the 2019 elections” ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-06-20.
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“The United Kingdom will leave the European Union” ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“US homicides will decline” ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“Congress will not authorize funding for a full-length border wall” ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by HonoreDB on 2020-01-02.
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“The US will not enter a recession” ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019” ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Donald Trump will still be in office” ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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I'll go through my decision-making process and score capitol hill as the best place for me to live ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bill on 2019-01-19; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Bill on 2019-01-20.
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I will work for at least 8h today ( 55% confidence )
Created by KatjaGrace on 2019-01-19; known on 2019-01-19; judged right by KatjaGrace on 2019-01-19.
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[Personal] I will set a bench weight PR today. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-18; known on 2019-01-19; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-20.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-18). ( 10% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-18; known on 2019-01-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-25.
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[Personal] All documents to be approved and returned by tomorrow EOD ( 80% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-17; known on 2019-01-19; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-18.
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Personal – I will still be employed by my current employer at the end of 2019 ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.
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Personal – I will be able to complete one unassisted pull-up at least once in 2019 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.
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Personal – I will squat 150lbs at least once in 2019 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.
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Personal – I will bench press 100lbs at least once in 2019 ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.
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Personal – I will deadlift 200lbs at least once in 2019 ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.
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Personal – I will have dated or be dating someone with the intent to make it a long-term relationship (considering marriage) by the end of 2019 ( 95% confidence )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.
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Personal – My mother will undergo transplant surgery before the end of 2019 ( 63% confidence )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.
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Personal – My mother will be called about the possibility of donor organs before the end of 2019 ( 71% confidence )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.
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1 or more “CRISPR babies” will be announced before the end of 2019 ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Trump will remain president as of January 1st, 2020 ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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USD cash outperforms SPY during 01/15/19 to 07/15/19 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by objclone on 2019-01-16; known on 2019-07-15; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-07-27.
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[Personal] I will set a deadlift volume PR today. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-16; known on 2019-01-17; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-17.
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[Commodities] US crude oil production in 2019-01 to exceed production in 2018-12 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-16; known on 2019-02-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-13.
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[Politics] Either Juan Guaidó or Nicolás Maduro to flee Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] Nicolás Maduro to resign as president of Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Personal] We will successfully settle on a book to read today. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known on 2019-01-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-16.
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[Economy] S&P 500 to outperform Shanghai Stock Index in 2019 ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 H1 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 Q1 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Commodities] US crude oil production in 2018-12 to have exceeded production in 2018-11 ( 90% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-01-16; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-16.
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[Fighting] Cain Velasquez to beat Francis Ngannou at UFC on ESPN 1 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Jon Jones to beat Anthony Smith ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-03-03; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-03-03.
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[[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Ben Askren to beat Robbie Lawler ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-03-03; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-03-03.
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[[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Tyron Woodley to beat Kamaru Usman ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-03-03.
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[Personal] I will travel to a different city this weekend. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-01-21; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-21.
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[Fighting] At least one more change to the UFC Fight Night 143 fight card to be announced (i.e., other than Mario Bautista, Karl Roberson, and Dwight Grant replacing John Lineker, Ion Cutelaba, and Randy Brown) ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-01-21; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-15.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-11). ( 15% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-11; known on 2019-01-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-18.
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NASA ISS Expedition 59 to successfully launch on February 28 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-01.
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North Korea to test a nuclear weapon in 2019 ( 26% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[Politics] Eesti 200 to win at least one seat in the Estonian election. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-11; known on 2019-03-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.
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[Fighting] Rose Namajunas to beat Jessica Andrade at UFC 237 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2019-05-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-12.
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[Fighting] Daniel Cormier to fight Jon Jones in 2019 ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Fighting] Conor McGregor to fight in a discipline other than MMA in 2019 ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[Fighting] Diaz and Masvidal to fight at UFC 235. ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.
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[Fighting] Bader to beat Emelianenko at Bellator 214. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2019-01-27; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-28.
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[Personal] I will go to the cinema before Monday. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2019-01-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-14.
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[Personal] I will see the opera on Saturday. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2019-01-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-14.
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$AMZN 2019 end of year price >= $2100 ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by objclone on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.