PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term ( 86% confidence; 15 wagers )

Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-21.

[Baseball] The New York Mets will win the World Series in 2019 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2019-10-30; judged wrong by rei5025 on 2019-11-11.

[Baseball] The New York Mets will make it to The World Series in 2019 ( 10% confidence )

Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2019-10-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-09.

[Baseball] The New York Mets will make the playoffs in 2019 ( 60% confidence )

Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

Having an agw for myself. ( 80% confidence )

Created by shardo on 2019-02-14; known on 2020-02-14; judged wrong by shardo on 2020-02-14.

Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2019 ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.

Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2020 ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.

Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2021 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.

[Personal] I will finish at least 52 books in 2019. ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

Personal – I suffer malaria symptoms before the end of the clinical trial. ( 40% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-13; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-03-05.

Artie Lange is dead before the end of the year ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-11.

Donald Trump is still president ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers )

Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

Darksydephil loses his house (or begins an unavoidable slide in that direction) ( 75% confidence )

Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31.

Saudi Arabia misses key financial targets ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31.

Bitcoin finishes year < $10k USD ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.

Business income grows by at least 10% ( 70% confidence )

Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-21.

No new NK nuclear weapon tests in 2019 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.

I will have read 100 books ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-21.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] All three models to outperform chance ( 20% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] Exactly two of the three models to outperform chance ( 25% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] Exactly one of the three models to outperform chance ( 30% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-18.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] None of the three models to outperform chance ( 25% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] “Reach” to perform best ( 20% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] “Laplace” to perform best ( 30% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] “Market” to perform best ( 50% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-18.

Kosovo has <117 diplomatic recognitions ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-02-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

No new states adopt the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-02-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2019-03-18.

I will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X>=4 ( 5% confidence )

Created by dmwit on 2019-02-11; known on 2019-03-11; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-03-02.

I will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X=3 ( 5% confidence )

Created by dmwit on 2019-02-11; known on 2019-03-11; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-03-02.

I will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X=2 ( 30% confidence )

Created by dmwit on 2019-02-11; known on 2019-03-11; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-03-02.

I will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X=1 ( 45% confidence )

Created by dmwit on 2019-02-11; known on 2019-03-11; judged right by dmwit on 2019-03-02.

I will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X=0 ( 15% confidence )

Created by dmwit on 2019-02-11; known on 2019-03-11; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-02-26.

Living thylacine specimen to be confirmed in 2019 ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

The Brexit Party to come first in Britain in the 2019 European Parliament elections ( 64% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-02-09; known on 2019-05-27; judged right by stepan on 2019-05-27.

I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-02-08). ( 18% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-09; known on 2019-02-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-16.

PP will defeat Hbox in 2019 ( 100% confidence )

Created by fairfax on 2019-02-07; known on 2020-01-01.

Trump will not be impeached ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by bklorimer on 2019-02-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-08-13.

[Politics] At least one of the eight current main candidates for 2020 Democratic presidential nominee to withdraw within the next three months ( 34% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.

[Commodities] US inventories of propane/propylene to be HIGHER at end of March than at end of February 2019 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-04.

[Commodities] US inventories of propane/propylene to be HIGHER at end of April than at end of March 2019 ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.

[Politics] Theresa May to lose a vote of no confidence in 2019 H1 ( 32% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] December 11 FOMC meeting ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.

[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] October 30 FOMC meeting ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.

[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] September 18 FOMC meeting ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.

[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] July 31 FOMC meeting ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.

[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] June 19 FOMC meeting ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in March for which data are published ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in April for which data are published ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in May for which data are published ( 60% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-03.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in June for which data are published ( 70% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in July for which data are published ( 62% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in August for which data are published ( 57% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-09-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in September for which data are published ( 58% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in October for which data are published ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in November for which data are published ( 55% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in December for which data are published ( 43% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.

Insects can feel pain and suffer ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by xdxdxd on 2019-02-02; known on 2050-03-01.

I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-02-01). ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-02-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-09.

[Politics] Canada to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[Politics] The EU to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

[Politics] The EU to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[Politics] The US to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

[Politics] Canada to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

[Politics] The US to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[Prizes] A Chinese citizen to win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-12.

China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q3 EOQ ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.

China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 EOY ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 14 books ( 1% confidence )