PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Smash for Switch will support 8-player smash. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-27.

Smash for switch will support the use of Gamecube controllers, either on release or within 18 months of release. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2020-06-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-07-09.

There will be a story mode in Smash for Switch. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-27.

There will be no Smash Tour minigame in Smash for Switch. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by gallerdude on 2018-12-10.

Another smash ballot will be announced by the end of 2019. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2020-01-01.

Another Smash Ballot will be announced in 2018. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-02-22.

Another character from Breath of the Wild will be added in Smash for Switch, either on release or within 18 months of release. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2020-12-07.

Another character from the Metroid series will be added in Smash for Switch either on release or within 18 months of release. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2020-06-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-07-09.

[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Robin ( 55% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.

[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Lucina ( 53% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.

[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Baby Bowser ( 55% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.

[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Cloud ( 80% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.

[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Charizard ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.

[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Ryu ( 75% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.

[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Dark Pit ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.

[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Wii Fit Trainer ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.

[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Duck Hunt Duo ( 65% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.

[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Pacman ( 65% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.

[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Bayonetta ( 80% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Mewtwo ( 50% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Marth ( 20% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Diddy Kong ( 15% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Fox ( 10% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Donkey Kong ( 58% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Bowser ( 55% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Kirby ( 75% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Zelda ( 80% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Dr Mario ( 80% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Samus ( 55% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] King Dedede ( 75% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Jigglypuff ( 72% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Ike ( 65% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Ganondorf ( 69% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Sheik ( 15% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Captain Falcon ( 40% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Falco ( 55% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Rob ( 65% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Link ( 45% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Inkling ( 50% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

I will end up as one of the drivers on Tuesday or Wednesday. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2018-03-21; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-03-22.

PP will defeat Hbox in 2018. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by fairfax on 2018-03-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by ambisinister on 2018-12-28.

Getting an abandon on the CS:GO game I was playing at lunch time before a powercut. The score was 14-11. ( 70% confidence )

Created by shardo on 2018-03-15; known on 2018-03-15; judged right by shardo on 2018-03-15.

UK will expel Russia's ambassador by 18 March 2018. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by fkovacs on 2018-03-14; known on 2018-03-19; judged wrong by fkovacs on 2018-03-19.

Team of England will not participate to Work Cup 2018. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by fkovacs on 2018-03-14; known on 2018-06-19; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.

When I check my phone, it will still have some battery life left. ( 99% confidence )

Created by OperaPhantom on 2018-03-13; known on 2018-03-13; judged right by OperaPhantom on 2018-03-13.

Effective assistance will not be granted in time or at all. ( 99% confidence )

Created by OperaPhantom on 2018-03-13; known on 2018-03-16.

I can trust my amore. ( 75% confidence )

Created by OperaPhantom on 2018-03-13; known on 2018-03-16.

Serious (personal) failure within the next few days. ( 95% confidence )

Created by OperaPhantom on 2018-03-13; known on 2018-03-16.

Vector to delay their first commercial launch past end of July. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-12; known on 2018-08-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.

Politics, UK – It is alleged by a government official that a significant possibility exists that the man restrained by police who later died in Lewisham on 2018-03-09 was subject to excessive force before the end of the 9th of April 2018. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-03-12; known on 2018-04-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-04-25.

Tech – Tesla unveils a home battery by the end of April, a possibly-estimated price range is announced, and the top-end of the price range is greater than $10,000. ( 35% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-03-11; known on 2018-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-05-05.

Tech – Tesla unveils a home battery by the end of April, a possibly-estimated price range is announced, and the bottom-end of the price range is greater than $10,000. ( 20% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-03-11; known on 2018-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-05-05.

Politics, UK – Spokesperson for UK government department states that their official view is that the Russian government was likely involved in attack on former spy by end of 2018-04-08. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-03-11; known on 2018-04-09; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-15.

At least 814 docking stations of public bike sharing service Velib to be installed in Paris by June 1, 2018. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-03-11; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-06-06.

Donald Trump will have a face-to-face meeting with Kim Jong-un “by May”. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-03-09; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-30.

I won't make an accurate prediction ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bmalcolmson on 2018-03-09; known on 2018-03-09; judged wrong by bmalcolmson on 2018-03-09.

Trump meets Kim ( 72% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by playablecharacter on 2018-03-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-06-12.

I will have a haircut on Friday and be pleased with the result. ( 65% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-08; known on 2018-03-09; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-09.

I will have a haircut on Friday. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-08; known on 2018-03-09; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-09.

Max and I will finish DIR Miniproject “music” on 08.03.2018. ( 35% confidence )

Created by JasperGeh on 2018-03-08; known on 2018-03-08; judged wrong by JasperGeh on 2018-03-08.

Max allows me a 5 am alarm to wake up Insa. ( 40% confidence )

Created by JasperGeh on 2018-03-07; known on 2018-03-07; judged right by JasperGeh on 2018-03-07.

No satellites massing less than 500kg to be launched in March. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-06; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-03-12.

I will require new glasses. ( 74% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-05; known on 2018-03-09; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-09.

My vision will have further deteriorated, as judged by my optician. ( 96% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-05; known on 2018-03-09; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-09.

I will have to schedule another appointment for further treatment following my dentist appointment this Friday. ( 4% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-05; known on 2018-03-09; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-03-09.

My teeth will require major scraping at the dentist on Friday. ( 35% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-05; known on 2018-03-09; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-03-09.

My teeth will require minor scraping at the dentist on Friday. ( 87% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-05; known on 2018-03-09; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-03-09.

Tiger Woods will win another PGA tournament before he turns 50. ( 90% confidence )

Created by sh33lz3bub on 2018-03-05; known on 2025-12-30.

The Facebook group, 'Effective Egoism', will have between 100 to 190 members by March 31st 11:59 pm Pacific timezone. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by dchristie on 2018-03-04; known on 2018-04-01; judged right by dchristie on 2018-04-01.

Brexit will successfully have take place by August 2019 ( 32% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Finma on 2018-03-03; known on 2019-01-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-02.

Conor McGregor will return to the UFC by the end of 2018 ( 70% confidence )

Created by Finma on 2018-03-03; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2019-01-01.

One or more of Cipriani et al will respond to Scott Alexander's article on their new paper ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by enolan on 2018-02-27; known on 2018-03-27; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-03-27.

Oprah Winfrey will run for president in 2020. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by iCrown on 2018-02-26; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2020-11-01.

In it's Fighter X program to replace a fleet of Boeing F-18 fighters with modern aicraft, Finland will choose to purchase an amount of 50-70 JAS Gripen-E fighters from Saab, augmented by 5-10 F35 jets on a lease deal to reduce operating costs. ( 70% confidence )

Created by viissataa on 2018-02-26; known on 2021-01-01.

The market capitalization of Ethereum (ETH) will overtake the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) before the end of January 2019. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Anidrania on 2018-02-26; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-02-01.

We will vote to watch Redline on Friday. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-26; known on 2018-03-02; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-05.

Fewer than 63 'ThinSats' from Twiggs Space Lab will be launched on the Autumn Antares in 2018. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-26; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-27.

My baby will be walking independently (first steps) by age 16 months ( 80% confidence )

Created by taryneast on 2018-02-23; known on 2018-07-21; judged right by taryneast on 2018-10-10.

My baby will be walking independently (first steps) by age 14 months ( 55% confidence )

Created by taryneast on 2018-02-23; known on 2018-05-21; judged right by taryneast on 2018-10-10.

My baby will be walking independently by age 12 months ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by taryneast on 2018-02-23; known on 2018-03-21; judged wrong by taryneast on 2018-10-10.

My baby will be walking independently by age 18 months ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by taryneast on 2018-02-23; known on 2018-09-21; judged right by taryneast on 2018-10-10.

SpinLaunch launches no payloads (test or otherwise, suborbital or other) by 2030. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.

complete 000004 22Feb18 ( 68% confidence )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-24.

I finish 000003 22Feb18 ( 10% confidence )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-24.

000002 completed 22Feb18 ( 5% confidence )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-24.

000001 takes longer than 1 hour ( 10% confidence )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-24.

000001 completed 22Feb18 ( 65% confidence )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-24.

000000 takes longer than 3 hours to complete ( 50% confidence )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23.

I finish 000000 22Feb18 ( 10% confidence )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-24.

A second Falcon Heavy launch by the end of 2018 ( 85% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-02-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.

WFIRST is not completely cancelled in 2018. ( 63% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-22.

[I will have finished the deep learning course by] March 25 ( 5% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-31.

[I will have finished the deep learning course by] March 18 ( 1% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-25.

[I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 8 ( 20% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-09.

[I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 22 ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-27.

[I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 1 ( 10% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-01.

[I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 15 ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-16.

[I will have finished the deep learning course by] May 6 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-05-13.

[I will have finished the deep learning course by] June 3 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-06-08.

[I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 29 ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-05-02.

Statistics

Recent Predictions