[I will have finished the deep learning course by] March 18 ( 1% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-25.

[Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] 2 ( 33% confidence )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-03-13.

[Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] ≥5 ( 1% confidence )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-03-13.

[Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] 4 ( 5% confidence )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-03-13.

[Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] 1 ( 5% confidence )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-03-13.

JF will attend dinner tonight ( 35% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-17; known on 2018-02-17; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-02-18.

HLSGives generates 30 career 1FTW pledges ( 60% confidence )

Created by Mjreard on 2018-02-15; known on 2018-05-25; judged wrong by Mjreard on 2018-05-26.

Bitcoin will end 2018 above $50,000 USD ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by daedalus_21 on 2018-02-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

Vector will complete multiple successful orbital launches in 2018. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-15; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.

Launcher One to launch commercial payloads in 2018. ( 22% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-14; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.

India's General Election for 2019 will take place after May 2019 ( 45% confidence )

Created by Nve on 2018-02-13; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by Nve on 2019-04-06.

India's 2019 General Elections will be held before April 2019 ( 20% confidence )

Created by Nve on 2018-02-13; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Nve on 2019-04-06.

In February 2018, Bitcoin prices will trade below $11k. And also rise to within $3800 of the ATH ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Nve on 2018-02-13; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by Nve on 2018-03-14.

I will attend Syndicate 2018. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-12; known on 2018-09-20; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-02-22.

Politics, US – Deal struck before 5th of March 2018 that curbs family reunification and provides “Dreamers” with protection from deportation or a path to such. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-02-10; known on 2018-03-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-03-05.

Politics, UK – A power-sharing executive is established in Stormont by the end of the 10th of March 2018. ( 34% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-02-10; known on 2018-03-11; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-03-11.

Politics, UK – The Department for International Development announces it is halting or suspending some funding for Oxfam due to sexual misconduct allegations against aid workers before the start of April 2018. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-02-10; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-04-01.

Israeli troops on the ground in foreign country (not Gaza or West Bank) by end of 2018 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2018-02-10; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2019-01-01.

Two more Falcon Heavy launches in 2018. ( 62% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-07; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.

One more Falcon Heavy launch in 2018. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-07; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.

GLAAD poll suggesting that LGBQ acceptance is down will mostly not be borne out by further research. ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.

Trump’s approval rating lower than 40% at end of year ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

Some sort of major immigration reform legislation gets passed. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2019-01-13.

PredictIt shows Bernie Sanders having highest chance to be Dem nominee at end of 2018. ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-02.

Mueller’s investigation gets cancelled (eg Trump fires him). ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

Democrats take control of the Senate in midterms. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

[Star Trek: Disco] Gur svanyr perngrf be qvfpbiref n gvzryvar jurer gur riragf bs gur cvybg bppheerq qvssreragyl. ( 40% confidence )

Created by HonoreDB on 2018-02-05; known on 2018-02-12; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2018-02-14.

SoftBank (SFTBY)'s market cap will cross $100B this FY , before 31st Mar 2018 ( 100% confidence )

Created by hara on 2018-02-05; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-04-08.

Stellar (XLM) is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 ( 15% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-01-02.

NEO is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-01-02.

Cardano (ADA) is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-01-02.

Ripple (XRP) is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.

At least 1 SpaceX Falcon 9 mission in 2018 is a failure with payload damage or loss. ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by kuudes on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.

German Humanist Party will get at least one seat in the European Parliament 2019 ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ZeitPolizei on 2018-02-04; known on 2019-05-27; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2019-05-27.

The New England Patriots will win Super Bowl LII ( 55% confidence )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-02-02; known on 2018-02-05; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-05.

Luna (dating on blockchain) will have more than 200 000 users (created accounts) by the end of 2018 ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by leo_grint on 2018-01-31; known on 2019-07-02; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-07-06.

Amazon will choose either Miami or Boston as their HQ2 (me) ( 50% confidence )

Created by workbean on 2018-01-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

LTC cryptocurrency litecoin will hit $400 by 3/1/18 ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by DanMotorcycleGuy on 2018-01-29; known on 2018-03-02; judged wrong by DanMotorcycleGuy on 2018-03-02.

No Google Lunar X Prize finalists to soft-land on the Moon in 2018. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-01-26; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.

A commercial Falcon Heavy launch to take place before the end of 2018. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-01-25; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-01-20.

“By end of year Ripple will be LOL-ing above 1 trillion market cap.” https://twitter.com/JohnyQi/status/956083850928640000 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

I will keep the laptop I ordered ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-21; known on 2018-02-21; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-02-22.

I will not fall behind on my fitness goal this quarter. Meaning, specifically, that I will not have to lie to Beeminder twice in a row. ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Enzar on 2018-01-20; known on 2018-03-23; judged wrong by Enzar on 2018-02-13.

North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2022-01-01.

BTCUSD will exceed 20000 during 2018 ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sjy on 2018-01-17; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-12-31.

For at least one full hour in 2018, Ethereum will have a total market capitalization of $250B or more, as judged by coinmarketcap.com (or a commonly accepted alternative if coinmarketcap.com no longer exists) ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

Hillary Clinton is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-01.

The US Republican Party ends the legislative filibuster in the Senate by the end of 2018 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-01-02.

Jared Kushner is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

The US Democratic Party wins a majority in the US Senate after the 2018 Midterm elections ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.

Legislation renewing DACA is signed into law by the end of April 2018 ( 20% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2018-05-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-05-02.

I have a conversation with a colleague in Chinese in 2018 ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Temeraire on 2018-01-14; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2019-01-05.

The RWBY Wiki entry for Cinder Fall lists her as “Deceased” at the conclusion of Volume 6. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-14; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-01.

Satoshi Nakamoto will have at one point been the world's richest person by 11:59 pm, December 31st, 2019. ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by dchristie on 2018-01-12; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by dchristie on 2020-01-01.

I fully complete all four projects in the RP project space by the end of March ( 30% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-11; known on 2018-03-31; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-04-10.