Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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[German government formation, 2017:] Minority government; Left and AfD in opposition ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-03-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.
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Democrats to gain control of US Senate in 2018 elections ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2018-11-07.
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SpaceX to beat Boeing in their informal space race (first boots on Mars). ( 80% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-12-12; known on 2022-01-16.
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Brazilians will elect Geraldo Alckmin as president in 2018 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by brunoarine on 2017-12-12; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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BTC price lower on Dec 11 00:00 than on Dec 9 00:00 PST. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-12-09; known on 2017-12-12; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2017-12-12.
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There will be a news story on Ethereum on https://www.1tv.ru before 2018 ( 60% confidence )
Created by leftblank on 2017-12-08; known on 2018-01-01.
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Paul Nehlen is banned or suspended from twitter (temporary or permanent either way) ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-12-07; known on 2018-06-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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BTC Will fall below 12k before dec 8th ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-12-06; known on 2017-12-08; judged wrong by leftblank on 2017-12-08.
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Public demonstration of an AI that can learn the rules of, and play at a superhuman level, most board/card games without supervision, just watching many games and being told who won, in 2018 or 2019. ( 64% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-12-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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Public demonstration of an AI that can learn the rules of, and play at a superhuman level, most board/card games without supervision, just watching many games and being told who won, in 2018. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-12-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-20.
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we will get a gym slot (at least 3 times before march) ( 32% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2018-01-05.
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snowman will still be identifiable next year ( 38% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2018-01-03.
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c has a crafts group ( 18% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-19; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-14.
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et shows mind change ( 18% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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Sc will be blegh ( 8% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2018-02-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2018-02-05.
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et po >= 15 ka before next year ( 12% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2018-01-03.
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La at least 2 prints ( 91% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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a thinks astro legit ( 4% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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print m ( 19% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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print a ( 68% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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print n ( 30% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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print lu ( 9% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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print j/a 2 ( 7% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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print j/a ( 76% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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print la ( 93% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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party j ( 12% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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party c ( 68% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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party A ( 64% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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party l ( 91% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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get mail from pa ( 57% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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et gives example of changing mind ( 18% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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The United States Senate Alabama election will be won by Roy Moore ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-12-04; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-12-13.
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The answer is “semantics” ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-12-04; known on 2017-12-04; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-12-04.
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Les Miles will be named head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers ( 75% confidence )
Created by RobertLumley on 2017-12-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2017-12-07.
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Btc below 7k USD before 2018 ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-12-03; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by objclone on 2018-01-01.
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Btc below 9k usd before 2018 ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-12-03; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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[Crypto predictions:] Augur will go up from $30.56 ( 70% confidence )
Created by owenshen24 on 2017-12-03; known on 2017-12-10.
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[Crypto predictions:] Raiden Network will go up from $3.63 ( 60% confidence )
Created by owenshen24 on 2017-12-03; known on 2017-12-10.
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[Crypto predictions:] Stellar will go up from $0.9 ( 60% confidence )
Created by owenshen24 on 2017-12-03; known on 2017-12-10.
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CarMax doesn’t negotiate is a better price ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30.
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There are mechanics in Las Vegas for electric cars ( 99% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30.
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Next term there will be a democratic president in America ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2020-12-04; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-12-04.
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CarMax extended warranty doesn’t cover battery for electric cars ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30.
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Created by lavalamp on 2017-11-30; known on 2020-12-31.
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Roy Moore to win senate special election ( 65% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2017-12-15; judged wrong by objclone on 2017-12-13.
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BFR to launch before 2022. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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SLS to be cancelled outright or to launch at least once before 2025. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known in 6 days.
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Falcon Heavy to launch (whether or not successful) before June 15, 2018 ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2018-06-16; judged right by enolan on 2018-06-08.
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On GivingTuesday 2017, Facebook/Gates Foundation will increase their $2 million in matching funds after it runs out. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-27; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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The 2017 TIME Person of the Year will be related to #MeToo, Harvey Weinstein, and/or the broader anti-sexual harassment movement. ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-26; known on 2017-12-07; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-06.
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Kahneman (or whoever controls his email) will give an actual response to the question I sent him via an email ( 50% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-11-25; known on 2017-12-26; judged right by crabman on 2017-11-25.
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[ Brazil's next president will be] A yet unknown outsider (Huck, Joaquim Barbosa, Meirelles, Doctor Rey, or other clown) ( 40% confidence )
Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-10-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[ Brazil's next president will be] A conservative like Ronaldo Caiado or Joao Amoedo ( 5% confidence )
Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-10-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[ Brazil's next president will be] A permanent political class shill (Alckmin, Marina Silva, Ciro Gomes, Alvaro Dias, Joao Doria, other crooks) ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-10-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-28.
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[ Brazil's next president will be] Bolsonaro or someone who espouses his law and order/anti-establishment platform ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-10-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-28.
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Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2027-11-25.
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[If Lula goes unpunished, Brazil will balkanize herself] The capital city will be moved elsewhere from Brasilia. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2027-11-25.
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[If Lula goes unpunished, Brazil will balkanize herself] A junta will take over after a military coup. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2027-11-25.
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[Brazil's next president will be] Ciro Gomes ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lucasmafaldo on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[Brazil's next president will be] Lula ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lucasmafaldo on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[Brazil's next president will be] Bolsonaro ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lucasmafaldo on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-11-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-28.
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[Brazil's next president will be] Alckmin ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lucasmafaldo on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Facebook will match at least $1,000,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $500,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $250,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $125,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $64,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $32,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $16,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $8,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $4,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $2,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 86% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $1,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 86% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match 100% of my donations made between the hours of 8:00 AM EST and 8:10 AM EST on #GivingTuesday ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-01.
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By the end of 2018, the all-time peak value for “Total IPv6 adoption” in https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html will exceed 25%. ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-24; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2019-01-02.
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By the end of 2018, the all-time peak value for “Percentage of pages loaded over HTTPS in Chrome by platform” on Windows will exceed 75%. ( 74% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-24; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2019-06-23.
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By the end of 2018, the all-time peak value for “Percentage of pages loaded over HTTPS in Chrome by platform” on Mac will exceed 85%. ( 71% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-24; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2019-01-02.
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Bitcoin will reach USD 10k before 31/12/2017 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-11-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix on 2017-11-29.
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World population passes 8 billion mark by mid 2023. (UN estimate). ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ekr on 2017-11-22; known on 2023-06-30; judged right by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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AMD crosses 25% cpu market share by end of 2018. (according to Passmark Cpu Benchmarks) ( 35% confidence )
Created by ekr on 2017-11-22; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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Hardkernel releases a new Odroid SBC before June 30th 2018. (they've been postponing the release of a roadmap since June 2017: https://forum.odroid.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=18002&start=250#p200485). ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ekr on 2017-11-22; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by ekr on 2018-03-23.
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Either Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal will finish ATP year-end number 1 in 2018 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gurgus on 2017-11-22; known on 2018-11-20; judged right by gurgus on 2018-11-20.
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Novak Djokovic will finish year-end ATP number 1 in 2018 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gurgus on 2017-11-22; known on 2018-11-20; judged right by gurgus on 2018-11-20.
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RM Team switch by 18 Nov 2018. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by amrav on 2017-11-19; known on 2018-11-18.
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My baby will be crawling within the month ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2017-11-18; known on 2017-12-18; judged wrong by taryneast on 2017-12-18.
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Godot 3.0 will have a stable release by the end of the year ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jach on 2017-11-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Jach on 2018-01-02.
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In 5 years programmers will be expected to write formally proven programs to the same or more extent as they're expected to write tests today ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jach on 2017-11-17; known on 2022-11-17; judged wrong by crabman on 2022-11-17.
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US dollar becomes an asset-backed currency under Trump's first term ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jach on 2017-11-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Someone who is not a war veteran and not a member of ZANU-PF (excluding Tsvangirai) ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Patrick Zhuwayo (Robert Mugabe's nephew) ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Some other veteran of the War of Independence ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Constantino Chiwenga ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Ignatius Chombo ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Saviour Kasukuwere ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Grace Mugabe ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Emmerson Mnangagwa ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-24.
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Morgan Tsvangirai ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-16.
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[Crisis in Zimbabwe] Something other than a Mugabe restoration, an army-supported takeover, or unrest/civil war ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2017-12-17; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-12.
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[Crisis in Zimbabwe] Mr and Mrs Mugabe and/or other factions dispute power with the generals; violence erupts, no single clear de facto leadership in the country ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2017-12-17; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-12.
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[Crisis in Zimbabwe] Generals back down; Mugabe is freed and goes back to de facto ruling the country. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2017-12-17; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-24.