PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I have exercised 50 days this year. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-11; known on 2018-04-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.

Theresa May UK PM throughout 2018 ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

I will drop out of my PhD in 2018 ( 2% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2019-01-16.

Still in a relationship with E by end of 2018 ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-12-12.

E and I will break up before planned holiday together in July ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2018-07-28; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-08-28.

I will consider myself vegan at any point in 2018 ( 30% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2019-01-16.

I will have a major haircut in 2018 ( 10% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2019-01-16.

I will not do any real computer work for more than an hour tomorrow ( 98% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-08; known on 2018-01-09; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-09.

Saints will win the Wild Card playoff game against the Panthers. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Lissy on 2018-01-08; known on 2018-01-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-08.

Trump will leave office early instead of being impeached. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Dr K on 2018-01-07; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.

the [how to solve common life problems] wiki linked below will help >10 people with at least one life problem after 60 days http://bring-me-to-life.wikia.com/wiki/Common_life_problems_Wiki ( 30% confidence )

Created by Somni on 2018-01-05; known on 2018-03-06; judged wrong by Somni on 2018-03-16.

All HLS classes canceled 1/4 ( 10% confidence )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-03; known on 2018-01-04; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-01-03.

Personal – I am routinely (at least briefly for at least 5 out of 7 days of the last week spent fully at my apartment) wearing ankle or wrist weights at the end of March 2018. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-01-03; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-03-28.

Kim Jong Un is leader of North Korea on 12/31/18 ( 90% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-03; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

I will finish 6 or more books this year ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jach on 2018-01-02; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by Jach on 2019-01-01.

I will not change employers in the year 2018 ( 80% confidence )

Created by imaxwell on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-12-31.

My relationship with L. will still be ongoing as of the end of June 2018 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by imaxwell on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by imaxwell on 2018-06-30.

Current Iranian regime is overthrown by April 2018 ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by ioannes on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-04-02.

[The monarch of the United Kingdom on 12/31/18 is] Elizabeth II ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

[The monarch of the United Kingdom on 12/31/18 is] Charles ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.

Voters Not Politicians anti-gerrymandering MI constitutional amendment will be approved via ballot initiative on election day 2018 ( 37% confidence )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.

[The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will be won by a Democrat ( 52% confidence )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-11-18; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.

[The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will have Bill Schuette as the Republican nominee ( 93% confidence )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-11-18; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.

[The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will be won by a Republican ( 48% confidence )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-11-18; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.

[The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will have Gretchen Whitmer as the Democratic nominee ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-11-18; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.

Bitcoin would have hit an ATH in the last ~38 days ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Nve on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by Nve on 2018-04-01.

In February, Bitcoin prices will hit an ATL. And also rise to within $3800 of the ATH ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by Nve on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-03-01.

Bitcoin prices will be subdued for January 2018, never rising above it's ATH ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Nve on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.

Debbie Stabenow to win MI Senate seat in 2018 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.

North Korea will test-detonate a nuclear weapon in 2018 ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] ≥40.1% ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.

[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 30.1%–35% ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.

[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] ≤30% ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.

[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 37.6%–40% ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.

[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 35.1%–37.5% ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.

Francis is still Pope on 1/1/19 ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

Trump to end 2018 with ≥40% approval rating as aggregated by 538. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

UM to win Outback Bowl ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.

New Carly Rae Jepsen album announced in Q1 2018 ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-04-01.

We make it to Alexs moms in our electric car ( 75% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-01-01.

Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf to win the Ibrahim Prize ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-12-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-21.

Tech – Digital Combat Simulator World 2.5 is released before the end of January 2018 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-02-05.

Episode 4 will end in a “don't trust technology, follow the heart” type ending ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

Violent act resulting in at least 2 deaths in Times Square between now and 2 AM 1/1/19 Eastern Time ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.

Tillerson will be SoS on 12/31/18 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-30; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

I think that I will still be using this site in a month. That is, I will have made at least two more serious predictions in the next month. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Enzar on 2017-12-30; known on 2018-01-30; judged right by Enzar on 2018-01-20.

VR technology will be available to middle-class consumers for home entertainment use by 2020 ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Ardenlk on 2017-12-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.

A democrat will win the SF mayoral special election. ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Ardenlk on 2017-12-30; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

North Korea will bomb someone before 2020 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Ardenlk on 2017-12-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2020-01-02.

Jeff Sessions will be AG on 12/31/18 ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-29; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

Democrat to win MI-11 in 2018 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-29; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.

UK is still, and has continuously been, a full member state of EU during this prediction. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kuudes on 2017-12-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2020-03-31.

Elizabeth Warren will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-27; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.

Christopher Nolan directs Bond 25 ( 70% confidence )

Created by gallerdude on 2017-12-26; known on 2019-11-08; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2018-05-08.

Rian Johnson’s new Star Wars trilogy takes place before the Prequel Trilogy. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gallerdude on 2017-12-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

Jonathan will meditate for X minutes every day until Monday, January 1st. ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Lemmih on 2017-12-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Lemmih on 2018-01-02.

[SSBM] UCF will not be used at The Big House 8, Evo 2018, GENESIS 5, or any tournament with over 1750 entrants in 2018 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ambisinister on 2017-12-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by ambisinister on 2018-12-28.

Ari Paul's $50k strike Bitcoin calls will expire in the money ( 5% confidence )

Created by ambisinister on 2017-12-24; known on 2018-12-28; judged wrong by ambisinister on 2018-12-28.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2019 ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2019 ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-08-14.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2020 ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-06-11.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2020 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2018 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-08-27.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2021 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2022 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2022 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2021 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2018 ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-15.

Wade will have more than 3 alcoholic drinks on the 27th. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Hindenburg on 2017-12-23; known on 2017-12-28; judged wrong by Hindenburg on 2017-12-28.

Falcon Heavy to launch (successfully or not) in January 2018. ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-02.

Kid Rock will not run for Senate in Michigan in 2018 ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-11-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.

Donald Trump will not be impeached throughout his first term. ( 65% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Verres on 2017-12-21; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-12-31.

Pineapple Fund donation to (another, not including SENS) widely-recognized EA charity by 1/1/19 ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2017-12-27.

My car has trouble starting every time I get gas, and only then; my mechanic said it’s a coincidence and me getting gas can’t be causing the starting issue. I think he’s wrong. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Verres on 2017-12-21; known on 2017-12-23; judged right by Verres on 2017-12-22.

At least one of the four coordinated EA charities (GD, AMF, FHI, THL) receives a Project for Awesome grant. ( 82% confidence )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-01-16.

Charity Science: Health becomes (or creates) a GiveWell top charity by giving season 2019 ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.

The GOP will hold 49 or fewer Senate seats after 2018 midterms. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-04; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05.

Bernie Sanders will win the 2020 Dem. Presidential nomination ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.

Trump will be President on 12/31/18 ( 85% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

The Democratic Party will control the House after 2018 midterms. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-03-01.

Al Franken will not be a US Senator on 3/31/18. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-04-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02.

Nancy Pelosi will be Democratic Leader on 12/31/17. ( 97% confidence )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.

Hillary Clinton will not face federal charges by the end of 2017. ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.

Trump will win the Presidency in 2020 ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-11-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.

Elizabeth Warren will run for President in 2020 ( 62% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.

President Trump will be impeached by 12/31/18 ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

President Trump will be impeached by 12/31/17. ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.

Paul Ryan will be Speaker of the House on 12/31/17. ( 99% confidence )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.

Assuming he competes, Novak Djokovic will win the 2018 Australian Open ( 70% confidence )

Created by gurgus on 2017-12-19; known on 2018-01-29; judged wrong by gurgus on 2018-01-29.

Personal – I reach the 12GB data allowance on my phone before I return home from travel, such that I buy more or curtail my usage. ( 10% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-12-19; known on 2018-01-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.

Hillary Clinton will announce candidacy for the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by peter_hurford on 2017-12-19; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.

My baby will be crawling by his first birthday ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by taryneast on 2017-12-18; known on 2018-03-31; judged right by taryneast on 2017-12-19.

My baby will be crawling by the end of 2017. ( 90% confidence )

Created by taryneast on 2017-12-18; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by taryneast on 2017-12-19.

c0rw1n “there are >= 10k universities in the US” ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by c0rw11 on 2017-12-14; known on 2017-12-14; judged right by bendini on 2018-02-15.

[German government formation, 2017:] Minority government; Left and AfD in opposition ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )