PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

The Socceroos will make it through the first round of the World Cup. ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by predicted on 2010-03-21; known on 2010-06-23; judged wrong by Danni on 2010-06-29.

The Socceroos will make it through the first round of the World Cup. ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by predicted on 2010-03-21; known on 2010-06-23; judged wrong by Danni on 2010-06-29.

The Socceroos will make it through the first round of the World Cup. ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by predicted on 2010-03-21; known on 2010-06-23; judged wrong by Danni on 2010-06-29.

The Socceroos will make it through the first round of the World Cup. ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by predicted on 2010-03-21; known on 2010-06-23; judged wrong by Danni on 2010-06-29.

Iowa Hawks win National Wrestling Tournament by 20 points ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by cmayer on 2010-03-19; known on 2010-03-20; judged right by cmayer on 2010-03-21.

Australia will not compete in the 2010 Commonwealth games ( 60% confidence )

Created by jimbob7 on 2010-02-17; known on 2010-02-17; judged wrong by Chris31 on 2010-03-20.

Australia will change drinking age to 21 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by kassey on 2010-02-10; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.

Hugo is the chosen one because he is the only one who sees Jacob! ( 60% confidence )

Created by guru on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-05-27; judged right by juju on 2010-03-18.

i will end up going on a holiday ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NATASHA on 2010-03-18; known on 2010-05-16; judged right by NATASHA on 2010-03-18.

Prediction book will get some desperately needed moderation. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jack on 2010-02-15; known on 2010-03-15; judged wrong by al3xal3x on 2010-03-18.

tomorrow will be sunny? ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by kristian on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-18; judged right by kristian on 2010-03-18.

The “LessWrong Singularity article” will be accepted for publication. http://lesswrong.com/lw/1fz/a_less_wrong_singularity_article/ ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Pavitra on 2009-11-25; known on 2010-03-15; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2010-03-17.

'Demons' will defeat 'Hawks' in Round 1 ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-27; judged wrong by rennie on 2010-03-24.

'Demons' will defeat 'Hawks' in Round 1 ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-27; judged wrong by rennie on 2010-03-24.

'Demons' will defeat 'Hawks' in Round 1 ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-27; judged wrong by rennie on 2010-03-24.

Twitter will disappear by the end of the year. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by DianneD on 2010-03-03; known on 2010-03-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-01-21.

Cannabis will be legalised within Australia by 2012 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.

Melbourne Victory will win the A league championship ( 80% confidence )

Created by guru on 2010-03-09; known on 2010-03-21; judged right by akavc15 on 2010-03-16.

Lara Bingle and Michael Clarke will split up in the next three months ( 100% confidence )

Created by d403 on 2010-03-01; known on 2010-06-01; judged right by harmonix on 2010-03-16.

Lot of Australian cricket players will decide to play in this season's Indian Premier League (IPL) ( 97% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by thechadisgreat on 2010-02-23; known on 2010-03-12; judged right by mktg2010 on 2010-03-14.

Roxanne Parlour's 3rd Birthday this friday night will be messy. ( 99% confidence )

Created by mark.p on 2010-03-08; known on 2010-03-13; judged right by mark.p on 2010-03-14.

I get into MIT ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PotatoDumplings on 2010-01-05; known on 2010-06-05; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings on 2010-03-14.

I get into MIT ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PotatoDumplings on 2010-01-05; known on 2010-06-05; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings on 2010-03-14.

I get into CalTech. ( 2% confidence )

Created by PotatoDumplings on 2010-01-05; known on 2010-06-05; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings on 2010-03-13.

Brad Pitt will come out of the closet. ( 60% confidence )

Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2010-03-07; judged wrong by Jack on 2010-03-10.

i will leave work by 1 o'clock to go eat lunch ( 51% confidence )

Created by ledflyd on 2010-03-09; known on 2010-03-09; judged right by ledflyd on 2010-03-09.

I will log onto prediction book again tomorrow ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by ledflyd on 2010-03-08; known on 2010-03-09; judged right by ledflyd on 2010-03-09.

Carey Mulligan will win Best Actress ( 60% confidence )

Created by wednesday on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-03-07; judged wrong by wednesday on 2010-03-09.

chris lee will leave the class to take a phone call in the next 10 minutes.. again. ( 90% confidence )

Created by mark.p on 2010-03-09; known on 2010-03-09; judged right by mark.p on 2010-03-09.

7th of march will be the best day ever ( 90% confidence )

Created by tiffany on 2010-02-28; known on 2010-03-08; judged wrong by guru on 2010-03-09.

Barack Obama will be shot by American white-supremist extremists within the next two weeks ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2010-03-14; judged wrong by Kyrisch on 2010-03-08.

Human seer Yudkovsky will have a revelation about friendly AI. Yudkovsky will keep it to himself. ( 76% confidence )

Created by cointelligence on 2010-03-01; known on 2011-03-01; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2010-03-08.

Jeff Bridges will win an Oscar for Best Actor in 2010 ( 98% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by mavmetropolis on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-03-07; judged right by mavmetropolis on 2010-03-08.

Sky Burial in the WA ( 86% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by cointelligence on 2010-03-01; known on 2010-03-07; judged right by cointelligence on 2010-03-03.

japanese people will be replaced by their own robots ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by reymartfc on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by reymartfc on 2010-03-03.

Stefan Pernar will not appear out of his own navel ( 99% confidence )

Created by cointelligence on 2010-02-28; known on 2010-03-01; judged right by cointelligence on 2010-03-01.

The US will come in the top 5 in total number gold medals won at the 2010 Winter Olympics ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by AJF on 2010-02-12; known on 2010-02-28; judged right by d403 on 2010-03-01.

Canada will win Olympic ice-hockey gold medal; points leader Sidney Crosby ( 95% confidence )

Created by harmonix on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-28; judged right by d403 on 2010-02-28.

Skinny jeans will last for no more than 18 months ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Lina on 2008-08-26; known on 2010-02-26; judged wrong by cointelligence on 2010-02-28.

pretty sure that dani is the greatest. ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by dani on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by cointelligence on 2010-02-28.

I get into MIT ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PotatoDumplings on 2010-01-05; known on 2010-06-05; judged wrong by PotatoDumplings on 2010-03-14.

Replacing the PSU on my gaming machine will fix all the problems I've been suffering for over a year. ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by beriukay on 2010-02-18; known on 2010-02-25; judged right by beriukay on 2010-02-25.

foul words such as “fuck, shit, whore” will be used in this site (u r so ful o' bull crap) ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by chacha22 on 2010-02-23; known on 2010-02-23; judged right by chacha22 on 2010-02-23.

Asian gangs in Melbourne will not cause trouble this weekend ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )