Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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In a few weeks, Dota Allstars 6.67c Ai will be released… ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mario1 on 2010-05-01; known on 2010-05-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Military style big bang this winter ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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South Africa will lose to Mexico in the opening match of the 2010 World Cup ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by World_Cup_predictor on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-06-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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France will defeat Uruguay ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by World_Cup_predictor on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-06-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Argentina will defeat Nigeria ( 80% confidence )
Created by World_Cup_predictor on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-06-13; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Slovenia will defeat Algeria ( 60% confidence )
Created by World_Cup_predictor on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-06-13; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Chile will defeat Honduras ( 65% confidence )
Created by World_Cup_predictor on 2010-05-09; known on 2010-06-16; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Mexico and Uruguay will tie. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by vhistory on 2010-06-22; known on 2010-06-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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South Africa will beat France ( 55% confidence )
Created by vhistory on 2010-06-22; known on 2010-06-22; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Spain will win the world cup 2010 ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by deaz on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Australia Vs Italy in World Cup Final ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by skinnyasianbitch on 2010-02-15; known on 2010-07-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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There will be a public option in the upcoming health reform ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-19; known on 2010-07-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Australia will at least make the quarter finals of the 2010 World Cup ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Pie4Life on 2010-06-01; known on 2010-06-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The Palm Pre will be an iPhone killer ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-31; known on 2010-05-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The recession will end this year ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Jon & Kate Plus 8 – The show will go on, in some capacity ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-23; known on 2009-12-23; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Jon & Kate Plus 8 – Jon & Kate will get back together within a year ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-23; known on 2010-06-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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George Lucas is my father! ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by al3xal3x on 2010-03-18; known on 2010-04-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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I predict Stanley McChrystal will keep his job until at least July 22. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by vhistory on 2010-06-22; known on 2010-07-22; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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A federal government run health insurance plan will not be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Spring on 2016-02-10.
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An announcement will be made before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that 10,000+ additional troops will be sent to Afghanistan ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Mark Sanford will not depart as Governor of South Carolina before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 ( 79% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Labour party will not win next UK General Election ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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One or more persons will be charged with the manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael Jackson before the end of the year. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Osama Bin Laden will not be captured or neutralized before the end of June, 2010. ( 80% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The Australian Interest rate will increase to 4.5% by the end of 2010. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2011-01-05; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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none of our boxes shipped home will go missing ( 85% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2010-04-26; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by Frank on 2010-07-26.
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I will pass my Mods ( 99% confidence )
Created by Larks on 2009-10-18; known on 2010-07-16; judged right by Larks on 2010-07-22.
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Dow jones breaking through 12000 before end july ( 30% confidence )
Created by Conbruce on 2010-07-18; known on 2010-07-31; judged wrong by koenfucius on 2010-07-21.
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Dow jones breaking through 12000 before end july ( 30% confidence )
Created by Conbruce on 2010-07-18; known on 2010-07-31; judged wrong by koenfucius on 2010-07-21.
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Will crack 100,000 visits in June ( 60% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2010-05-29; known on 2010-07-16; judged wrong by Frank on 2010-07-16.
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Lebron to play for the New York Knicks in the 2010-2011 season. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Jack on 2010-07-07; known on 2010-07-09; judged wrong by Jack on 2010-07-16.
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Lebron James will sign a contract with a team that is not the Cleveland Cavaliers for the 2010-11 season. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-01; judged right by Jack on 2010-07-16.
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Lebron James will sign a contract with a team that is not the Cleveland Cavaliers for the 2010-11 season. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-01; judged right by Jack on 2010-07-16.
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Germany will be governed by a CDU + FDP coalition during april, may, and june of 2010. ( 90% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Drahflow on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by JFE on 2010-07-02.
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I will be able to run 20km in under 2 hours by July 1st ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-26; known on 2010-07-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2010-07-02.
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Neither USA nor Israel will execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before 30 Jun 2010 ( 79% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-06-30; judged right by rwallace on 2010-06-30.
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Paul Manoukian will get facebook. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by kassey on 2010-03-22; known on 2010-06-18; judged wrong by Danni on 2010-06-29.
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The Socceroos will make it through the first round of the World Cup. ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predicted on 2010-03-21; known on 2010-06-23; judged wrong by Danni on 2010-06-29.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.
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reach 600 facebook fans by June 25th ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Frank on 2010-05-17; known on 2010-06-26; judged wrong by Frank on 2010-06-26.
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That one of my best friends will get married in june this year! ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Olivia on 2010-03-22; known on 2010-06-16; judged wrong by aklyatne on 2010-06-22.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.
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Greece will Defeat Korea ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by World_Cup_predictor on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-06-13; judged wrong by maskath@hotmail.com on 2010-06-19.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.
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Lakers will win NBA Finals ( 85% confidence )
Created by maskath@hotmail.com on 2010-06-19; known on 2010-06-19; judged right by maskath@hotmail.com on 2010-06-19.
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I will graduate from college in May of next year. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jack on 2009-12-02; known on 2010-06-01; judged right by Jack on 2010-06-16.
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The University of Kentucky Men's basketball team will not win the 2010 NCAA Division 1 Championship. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Jack on 2010-01-26; known on 2010-04-06; judged right by Jack on 2010-06-16.
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The Cavs will not win the NBA championship in the 09/10 season ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nicolas on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-06-16; judged right by Jack on 2010-06-16.