Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Google wave will be a new always open tab in my browser. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-28; known on 2010-01-06; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-25.
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I like smoked gouda ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by senile on 2010-01-21; known on 0139-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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I like smoked gouda ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by senile on 2010-01-21; known on 0139-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Investling site will be live ( 70% confidence )
Created by Wes on 2010-01-19; known on 2010-01-20; judged right by Wes on 2010-01-20.
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This website's statistics will show that people pick percentages with a '2' in them anomalously often- presumably due to priming from the 'my 2 cents' ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Larks on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-01-16; judged wrong by Larks on 2010-01-16.
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The paper I'm reading about the implications of an infinite number of people in every situation in the universe will conclude that we can still be ethical ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KatjaGrace on 2010-01-15; known on 2010-01-17; judged right by KatjaGrace on 2010-01-16.
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KD is K D P/L ( 95% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2010-01-08; known on 2010-01-08; judged wrong by nomadphase on 2010-01-11.
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KD is K D P/L ( 95% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2010-01-08; known on 2010-01-08; judged wrong by nomadphase on 2010-01-11.
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Chicago Bears will make playoffs. ( 57% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Philo on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-01-04; judged wrong by Philo on 2010-01-04.
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The statistical plot of sitewide predictions will approach a horizontal line, 50% accuracy, as the usage base increases ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-01; known on 2009-11-11; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.
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We'll find a human-based way to fix integration with MYOB or opt for a different accounting solution. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by captainpete on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-30; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.
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There will be no new PD clients till the end of the year :( ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tom on 2009-12-13; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-03.
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Someone (likely a tall German) will have an Xbox plugged into the Trike TV before New Year's Day. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2009-12-22; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.
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Australia will have a double-dissolution election in 2009 due to the Liberal party blocking changes to the private health insurance rebate. ( 5% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged right by Lina on 2010-01-02.
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Australia will have a double-dissolution election in 2009 due to the Liberal party blocking changes to the private health insurance rebate. ( 5% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged right by Lina on 2010-01-02.
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Kevin Rose will have a date with Jennifer Aniston by the end of the year. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Lina on 2009-06-10; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by Lina on 2010-01-02.
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Google will buy Twitter by 2010 ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by thephilosiraptor on 2010-01-01.
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I won't directly pay any doctor, doctor's office, or hospital any amount of money for medical services rendered to me for the rest of this year. ( 80% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged right by olimay on 2010-01-01.
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I'll make at least $500 from now until the rest of the year. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by olimay on 2010-01-01.
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I will order food from a restaurant with the word “Chinese” somewhere on its printed menu no fewer than 3 times before the end of this year. ( 80% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged right by olimay on 2010-01-01.
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I will have read all the science fiction works of Iain M. Banks (those published with 'M.' in both UK and USA) by end of 2009. ( 80% confidence )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by anonym on 2010-01-01.
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A significant number of people will comment here that they modify initial self-predictions of greater than 50% upwards to account for anticipation of putting extra effort into it because it was judged more likely than not. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by anonym on 2010-01-01.
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montgomery will defeat petterb in both of their dailygammon.com error rate tournament matches. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by refragable on 2009-10-28; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by refragable on 2010-01-01.
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I will drink at least 40 different beers before the end of the year ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ledflyd on 2009-11-16; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by ledflyd on 2010-01-01.
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Lily Allen will return to twitter before the year end ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by pre on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by pre on 2009-12-31.
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more than 4 chavs will get on my bus before I get off ( 65% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-30; known on 2009-12-30; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-31.
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I will not become a theist before the end of 2009. ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2009-05-01; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Pablo on 2009-12-30.
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I will track more than 4 hours of useful work before 6pm tomorrow ( 75% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-28; known on 2009-12-29; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-29.
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My visitors will not arrive before 12pm ( 70% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-27; known on 2009-12-28; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2009-12-28.
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PredictionBook will implement tagging for predictions in the next two months. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-12-15; judged wrong by Jack on 2009-12-28.
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The world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams ( 99% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2009-12-28; judged right by rwallace on 2009-12-28.
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Plan Deliver website will be available at its proper home before the Christmas break ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Wes on 2009-12-21; known on 2009-12-23; judged right by Wes on 2009-12-23.
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I will have saasu set up by end of Friday this week ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fionajohnston on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-05; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-12-22.
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50% of Trike staff will be drunk @ the christmas party… ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tom on 2009-12-13; known on 2009-12-19; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-12-20.
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We will have K open to the 7 friendly dentists by the end of the week ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dgoodlad on 2009-12-13; known on 2009-12-18; judged wrong by dgoodlad on 2009-12-20.
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I will need 6 hours to implement the K feature 1895261 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Tom on 2009-12-16; known on 2009-12-17; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-12-16.
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The 10 dentists will use Kando by the end of the week… ( 40% confidence )
Created by Tom on 2009-12-06; known on 2009-12-11; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-12-13.
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Tansel will be @ the doctor at least once this week ( 90% confidence )
Created by Tom on 2009-12-06; known on 2009-12-11; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-12-13.
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The weather will get hot and sunny again for the weekend (30+ degrees) ( 25% confidence )
Created by dgoodlad on 2009-12-06; known on 2009-12-12; judged wrong by dgoodlad on 2009-12-13.
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I will make it to the Saturday 2009 Dec 12th OBLW meetup. ( 60% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-12-12; known on 2009-12-12; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-12.
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Total deaths from the swine flu this year will be less than the deaths from normal seasonal flu. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by stupidrobots on 2009-11-17; known on 2010-03-16; judged wrong by dakyne on 2009-12-09.
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combined iphone app sales for November > 250 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2009-11-02; known on 2009-12-07; judged right by Frank on 2009-12-07.
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We'll find a human-based way to fix integration with MYOB or opt for a different accounting solution. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by captainpete on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-30; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.
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We'll find a human-based way to fix integration with MYOB or opt for a different accounting solution. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by captainpete on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-30; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.
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Kando will be ready (in respect to the features) to get the 10 dentists on ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tom on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-03; judged right by Tom on 2009-12-06.
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i will be able to stand on a surf board for more than 5 sec after this weekend ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tom on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-06; judged right by Tom on 2009-12-06.
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Zach was looking at Newark, DE because there is no second “Newark in New Jersey near the Pennsylvania border”. ( 99% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-12-05; known on 2009-12-06; judged right by olimay on 2009-12-06.
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I will write and publish one complete short story on the internet (public internet) before my birthday. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-12-06; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-06.
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I will weigh less than 170 lbs on my birthday and in my birthday suit. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-12-06; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-06.
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I'll publish at least 15 (different) posts on False Symmetry before my birthday. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-12-06; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-06.