Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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'Saints' will defeat 'Swans' in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-27; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Lions' will defeat 'Eagles' in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-27; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Eagles' will defeat 'Lions' in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Hawks' will defeat 'Demons' in Round 1 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-27; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Bombers' will defeat 'Cats' in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Blues' will defeat 'Tigers' in Round 1 ( 50% confidence )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-25; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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They will never cure cancer in our lifetimes. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by james on 2010-04-02; known on 2010-04-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Channel 9's pathetic tribute to murdered murderer Carl Williams will rate obscenely well. ( 80% confidence )
Created by chrisknows on 2010-04-19; known on 2010-04-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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YES!, THE ALBUM WILL BE A HIT! ( 99% confidence )
Created by mela23 on 2010-03-31; known on 2010-04-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Mohsin Malik better stay video than Jay Sean ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by akavc15 on 2010-04-19; known on 2010-05-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Carlton will make 2010 Afl Finals ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by maskath@hotmail.com on 2010-03-27; known on 2010-06-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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L'OM sera-t-il champion de France en 2010 ? ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Faiste on 2009-06-23; known on 2010-06-23; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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the wind in melbourne will cause damage to properties and injure many ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by reymartfc on 2010-02-21; known on 2010-02-21; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Australia will win 5-0 against west indies ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by imNOTafob on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Marketing will become one of the most popular course to study ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Monec on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Melbourne Victory to win A-Legue season 2009-2010 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by rosy on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-01-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Q4 stocks will falter and the markets will pull back. Gold and silver will move up greatly in proportion to how much the market indexes fall. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by CRNewsReports© on 2009-06-17; known on 2009-12-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The US Dollar will drop to 1.75 against the Brazilian Real by the end of October 2009. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by marcio on 2009-10-01; known on 2009-10-30; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Q4 stocks will falter and the markets will pull back then gold and silver will move up greatly! ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by CRNewsReports on 2009-06-15; known on 2009-06-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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I like smoked gouda ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by senile on 2010-01-21; known on 0139-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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There will be a market crash of a combined magnitude (perhaps over a few days) of around 10%. ( 90% confidence )
Created by marquisdetrade on 2009-04-30; known on 2009-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The mind body problem will not be solved. ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tobias_M on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-19; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Notre Dame will beat BC ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by josephlawler on 2009-10-22; known on 2009-10-24; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Apophis will not hit earth ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Gerrit on 2008-08-25; known on 2029-05-16; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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John Farnham will have another come back tour in Australia within 2 years. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Miyo on 2008-08-27; known on 2010-08-27; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Despite Federal takeover, ‘Fannie Mae’ and ‘Freddie Mac' will become insolvent, and ultimately bankrupt ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-08; known on 2009-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Extremist confusionists will not be able to prevent LHC collisions – even given they now have until our Autumn next year ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-24; known on 2009-11-09; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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There will not be a 2009 season of 'Make Me a Supermodel' ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-16; known on 2009-11-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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US GDP will not decline by 10.0% or more from its peak value between Q4 2008 and Q4 2009 (inclusive) ( 95% confidence )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Created by magic on 2010-02-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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I won't get the swine flu during this year. ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by popojala on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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is going to have sex with herself cos of phil ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by melmel on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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A new social networking site will overtake Facebook as the most used website by October 2010 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Khloe Kardashian is pregnant ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Holly on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Katy Perry and Russel Brand will have a baby boy in October 2010 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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whaling aint gonna be prohibited because japanese people will build a large aquarium for them whales to breed ( 1% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by reymartfc on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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men will continue to forget about valentine's day ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by vivaladam on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-10; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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American president obama will screw up politically ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by melmel on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-02-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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CITCON Europe 2010 will happen in Prague ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by elefevre on 2009-11-12; known on 2010-03-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Cointelligence will get bored and quit ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by cointelligence on 2010-03-01; known on 2010-03-08; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Spencer Tunick will be charged with mass-scale indecent exposure ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2010-03-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Mark Webber will crash out Australian F1 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by thechadisgreat on 2010-03-24; known on 2010-03-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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'Cats' will defeat 'Bombers' in Round 1 ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by AFL_Predictor on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-03-26; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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i predict i won't use this site again. ( 75% confidence )
Created by ally on 2010-03-20; known on 2010-03-27; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Alonso will win the Australian F1 Grand Prix ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by p1 on 2010-03-22; known on 2010-03-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Pamela Anderson willl win Dancing with the stars! ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by saralehman on 2010-04-01; known on 2010-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Travel to Europe will be delayed for a week due to Volcanic ash. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by predicted on 2010-04-19; known on 2010-04-02; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Kevin Rudd will resign in April 2010. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by thdurp on 2010-03-17; known on 2010-05-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Bright and tight will light up this winter. ( 80% confidence )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-04-21; known on 2010-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Shogun Rua will defeat Lyoto Machida at UFC 113 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by predicted on 2010-04-21; known on 2010-05-08; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.