Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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I will go to the gym every day this week (Mon-Fri) ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dgoodlad on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-05; judged wrong by dgoodlad on 2009-12-05.
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I will get at least one paid freelance design or programming job in the next two weeks. ( 20% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-28; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-05.
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Oliver will share a meal, or, while consuming a meal, company with both Zach and Ruchi on at least two occasions before his birthday. ( 95% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-12-06; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-05.
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The current (10/21/09) predictionbook UI, with the right/wrong/unknown above the certainty/comments section, will still be sufficiently similar (and similarly bad) by 12/01/2009 that people mistakenly judging predictions will still happen at least three t ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-22; known on 2009-12-03; judged right by NineteenHalves on 2009-12-03.
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This site will have a feature to hide other people's prediction results until after one has voted. This will be implemented at most within two weeks. ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kess3r on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-28; judged wrong by anonym on 2009-12-03.
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saints win Superbowl ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by hoodoo2 on 2009-11-18; known on 2010-02-07; judged right by hoodoo2 on 2010-02-09.
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Integration with a certain financial package will cause pain on K by the end of next week ( 80% confidence )
Created by blorh on 2009-11-25; known on 2009-12-03; judged right by blorh on 2009-12-02.
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LW Meetup Locator's map and input form functionality will functioning and in production by the end of November. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-12-01; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-01.
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I'll see Eric Li in person on two separate days before the end of November. ( 30% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-12-01; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-01.
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Kando will be live first of december ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tom on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-12-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-12-01.
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The DSL modem will arrive today ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dgoodlad on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-11-30; judged wrong by dgoodlad on 2009-11-30.
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Our TV will be set up (connected to a server, some kind of status report) til the end of the week ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tom on 2009-11-22; known on 2009-11-28; judged right by Tom on 2009-11-29.
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PlanDeliver retail site content will be finished by the end of the week ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Wes on 2009-11-24; known on 2009-11-27; judged wrong by Wes on 2009-11-29.
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During the next two weeks, at least half of my experimental data will be unusable for our presentation on Dec. 2, 2009. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ledflyd on 2009-11-16; known on 2009-11-27; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2009-11-28.
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I will eat Thanksgiving dinner at my Aunt's house AND will not ingest any Turkey. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ledflyd on 2009-11-16; known on 2009-11-26; judged right by ledflyd on 2009-11-27.
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I will have automated the rollout of a ruby site by the end of the week. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jon on 2009-11-22; known on 2009-11-27; judged wrong by jon on 2009-11-27.
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I will go to bed (and fall asleep) before 5AM every day next week, which I'll say starts Sunday. ( 20% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-21; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-26.
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Claire and I will go to the Met Museum of Art sometime on 2009-11-20. ( 20% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-21; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-26.
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There will be no heat in my lab for at least half the days over the next week and a half ( 65% confidence )
Created by ledflyd on 2009-11-16; known on 2009-11-25; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2009-11-25.
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All actions on PD (allocation related) will be handled in JS only ( 75% confidence )
Created by Tom on 2009-11-22; known on 2009-11-24; judged right by Tom on 2009-11-25.
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Cannabis will be legalized throughout the USA. ( 78% confidence )
Created by said on 2009-11-18; known on 2037-08-31; judged wrong by COng on 2010-02-10.
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I will finish planning lessons before I go to bed ( 90% confidence )
Created by brownguy22 on 2009-11-23; known on 2009-11-23; judged right by brownguy22 on 2009-11-23.
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saints win Superbowl ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by hoodoo2 on 2009-11-18; known on 2010-02-07; judged right by hoodoo2 on 2010-02-09.
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Cannabis will be legalized throughout the USA. ( 78% confidence )
Created by said on 2009-11-18; known on 2037-08-31; judged wrong by COng on 2010-02-10.
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There will be a flood event that kills more than 200 people between 14 October and 14 November 2009. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-11-14; judged wrong by Arenamontanus on 2009-11-17.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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I will get frustrated with at least one of my co-workers today ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ledflyd on 2009-11-16; known on 2009-11-16; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2009-11-16.
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Oliver will share a meal, or, while consuming a meal, company with both Zach and Ruchi on at least two occasions before his birthday. ( 95% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-12-06; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-12-05.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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Paddy will give me or have had prepared a check payable to me by the end of today. ( 52% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-15; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-16.
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I will still be at my current job on Nov. 17, 2009. ( 96% confidence )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-11-17; judged right by anonym on 2009-11-15.
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My mother or father will call me today. ( 20% confidence )
Created by popojala on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-15; judged wrong by popojala on 2009-11-15.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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I'll make it on time (within 7 minutes of 15:00 UTC, by Sprint Mobile network time) to the OB/LW NYC meetup on 2009-11-14. ( 50% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-14; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-14.
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I will be in New York City by noon today. ( 80% confidence )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-14; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-14.
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I'll fall asleep before 5AM today. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2009-11-14; judged wrong by olimay on 2009-11-14.
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Bell/Carry sites will be live by Friday. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Matt on 2009-11-02; known on 2009-11-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-11-14.
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DC practices management improvement job will be complete by Friday ( 60% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2009-11-02; known on 2009-11-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-11-14.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 99% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.
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FOX will not pick up the show “Dollhouse” for a third season. ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-11-15; judged right by Jack on 2009-11-12.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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The President of the Czech Republic will sign the Lisbon Treaty before the end of June, 2010. ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by Cyan on 2009-11-10.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 99% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.