Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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The USA government will be removed before the end of 2022 (according to Wikipedia). ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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China attempts a full scale invasion of Taiwan in 2022. ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atzeje on 2022-03-16; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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NATO will have more than 30 full member states before January 1, 2023, ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-09; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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'Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care' by 2022 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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The ITER fusion reactor will have first plasma by the end of 2022. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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BFR to launch before 2022. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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New Glenn to fly in 2022. ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-02-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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SpaceX to declare bankruptcy by end of 2022 ( 2% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-03; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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SpaceX to have a large-scale government bailout by end of 2022. ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Paper on total difference labeling published in journal by end of year. ( 64% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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No Blue state to be in the top 5 for per a capita deaths from Covid on January 1, 2023. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-28; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Starship to do a full-stack launch by end of 2022. ( 59% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-08-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Bolsonaro manterá o mandato presidencial até o final do período para o qual foi eleito. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2019-03-28; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2023-01-01.
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It is legal and possible to anonymously buy recreational Cannabis in Germany by December 31 2022 (at least one actual legal shop/seller, can be online) ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by M on 2021-11-30; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2023-01-01.
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The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023 ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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I will weigh an average of 67 kg in the last quarter of 2022. Currently 74.4kg ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2022-01-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-12-31.
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I will complete studying general relativity to my satisfaction by end 2022. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2022-01-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-12-31.
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I will start studying quantum field theory by end 2022 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2022-01-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-12-31.
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I will have at least 50 followers on Mastodon by December 31. ( 25% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-18; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2022-12-31.
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60% of the worlds combustion engines will run on Biofuels by the end of 2022 ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-31.
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Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 ( 6% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-31.
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PE; shock ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by reblocke on 2022-12-26; known on 2022-12-26; judged wrong by reblocke on 2022-12-26.
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SBF extradited from the Bahamas to the US ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-14; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-23.
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Twitter ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-19; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-31.
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Twitter ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-19; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-31.
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'Avatar: The Way of Water' will domestically gross more than $175 million on its opening weekend (Dec 16-18) ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-01; known on 2022-12-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-19.
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Zhongguo will be a high income country by 2022 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-28; known on 2022-12-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-18.
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Twitter will be online on the 15th of December 2022. On that date, I will be able to post a tweet and other people will be able to see it. ( 89% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-18; known on 2022-12-15; judged right by danielfilan on 2022-12-15.
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The climate book will contain 1 sentence devoted to how challeging it will be to solve how we produce reliable electrical energy. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ElliotDavies on 2022-10-29; known on 2022-11-05; judged wrong by ElliotDavies on 2022-12-15.
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Lula will not name a liberal Treasure secretary ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by DanCoimbra on 2022-12-13.
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Sam Bankman-Fried will be arrested before January 1, 2024, on charges related to the (as of 2022-11-10) liquidity crunch at FTX. ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pmberg on 2022-11-10; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-13.
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Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. ( 48% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-08; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by elecnix on 2022-12-10.
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CME Group will claim the video of their CEO stating that he bribed a CFTC regulator was digitally manipulated. ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-11-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-07.
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PRC ends Zero-Covid Policy ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-11-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-07.
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I get a job offer from Reddit ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-09-22; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2022-12-05.
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Reddit gives me an interview ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-08-12; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2022-12-05.
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A team signs Antonio Brown | football season not cancelled ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-12-16; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2022-12-05.
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At least 120 people will apply for Effective Altruism @ GT's Spring 2022 seminar programs ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-02-05; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-12-05.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2021. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-09; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-05.
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New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022. ( 21% confidence; 20 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-03-05; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24.
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I will meet Miss Piano in person again. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by niplav on 2022-11-22; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by niplav on 2022-12-04.
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I will run semi-supervised Cityscapes-Vistas experiments by 2022-12-2, 20:30. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Ivan on 2022-11-26; known on 2022-12-02; judged wrong by Ivan on 2022-12-04.
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I will test negative for covid the morning of 12/2 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dmz on 2022-12-01; known on 2022-12-02; judged right by dmz on 2022-12-02.
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I will test negative for covid around noon on 12/1 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dmz on 2022-11-30; known on 2022-12-01; judged wrong by dmz on 2022-12-01.
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I will test negative for covid the morning of 11/30 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dmz on 2022-11-29; known on 2022-11-30; judged wrong by dmz on 2022-11-30.
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I'm about to test negative for covid ( 25% confidence )
Created by dmz on 2022-11-29; known on 2022-11-29; judged wrong by dmz on 2022-11-29.
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in december 2021, I'll be above 1150 since 2 consecutive months in my elo chess rating ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Amaru on 2020-12-24; known on 2021-10-16; judged wrong by Amaru on 2022-11-29.