PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

No Cast Lead style bombing/invasion of Gaza in 2017 ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

No major intifada in Israel in 2017 (ie > 250 Israeli deaths, but not in Cast Lead style war) ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.

Assad will remain President of Syria throughout 2017 ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

I get banned from GoodReads ( 75% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-09; known on 2021-01-10; judged unknown by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average will exceed 20,000 for the first time in history during January 2017 ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sjy on 2017-01-09; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by sjy on 2017-01-25.

No human beats the best Go AI in an unhandicapped competitive game by 2020 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by mortehu on 2017-01-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.

I will continue to use (in any form, on any machine) tmux in 2025 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-08; known on 2026-01-01.

At least one article Vipul Naik pays to create on the English Wikipedia will have good article or featured article status by the end of 2025 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-08; known on 2026-01-01.

I will meet anyone in-person via okcupid, before 2018 ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

I will finish with the article before got to sleep ( 70% confidence )

Created by whaf on 2017-01-07; known on 2017-01-07; judged wrong by whaf on 2017-01-14.

I go on an OKC date by February 15, 2017 ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by ioannes on 2017-01-07; known on 2017-02-15; judged right by ioannes on 2017-02-15.

I go on an OKC date next week ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ioannes on 2017-01-07; known on 2017-01-18; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-19.

Tomorrow I will finish exporting the Quora questions I follow ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-07; known on 2017-01-08; judged right by Issa Rice on 2017-01-08.

I will be on University of Washington Seattle campus on January 20, 2017 ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-07; known on 2017-01-21; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2017-01-21.

“Timeline of digital preservation” on the English Wikipedia will be over 100,000 bytes by the end of 2017 https://goo.gl/RMJbcs ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-01.

Crimea still effectively occupied by/part of Russia ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-06; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sjy on 2021-01-05.

Aaron will choose Angelina's for lunch today. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Rob Bednark on 2017-01-06; known on 2017-01-06; judged wrong by Rob Bednark on 2017-01-07.

I will complete part 3 of week 5's assignment tonight, by midnight. ( 90% confidence )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2017-01-06; known on 2017-01-07; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2017-01-06.

By 2030 there will be fewer than 1,600,000 people employed as Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (occupation code 53-3032) in the US as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2017-01-06; known on 2030-01-16.

Benfica will win the Portuguese Football Championship in the 2016/17 season ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jscc on 2017-01-06; known on 2017-05-16; judged right by jscc on 2017-05-16.

Donald Trump will repeal Obamacare in his first term ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by npcuck on 2017-01-06; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.

I will work for Unity Technologies within a year of graduation from University of Washington ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by npcuck on 2017-01-06; known on 2019-06-01.

Akshat Shrivastava will drop out of the University of Washington ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-06; known on 2018-06-30; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-06-30.

Israel annexes new land in 2017 ( 16% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

Issa Rice source code (in its entirety) will be put into new hardware this year ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

Vipul Naik will pay more (“payments due”) for contract work in 2017 than he did in 2016 https://contractwork.vipulnaik.com/ ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

The University of Washington will move up from its current ranking of 15 in ARWU before 2021 ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

Bryan Caplan's The Case Against Education will have a Wikipedia page about it within one month of publication, and the page will not be deleted for one year after publication of the page. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-05; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-16.

Myself and a certain close friend will visit Japan during 2017 ( 9% confidence )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

I will experience a blackout while/after drinking alcohol during 2017 ( 86% confidence )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

I will suicide before 2021 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2021-01-03.

At least one current core researcher at MIRI will turn to terrorism in order to buy more time for MIRI/others to save humanity ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2039-01-01.

A certain close friend of playablecharacter will commit suicide this year ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Dapple on 2017-01-05; known on 2020-11-08.

I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2024 US Presidential Election ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Dapple on 2017-01-05; known on 2024-11-08.

Yahoo will cease to exist by 2026 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-05; known on 2026-01-01.

Oakland's total homicide count is greater than 88 in 2017. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by adbge on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

At least one non-redirect page I created on the English Wikipedia during 2016 will be deleted through an AfD in 2017 ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.

I will run >2500 miles in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by tstelzig on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by tstelzig on 2018-03-05.

Z-Cash Market Cap will be above $18m (Value on 1/3/17) at the end of 2017 ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.

Z-Cash will be above $50 (Price on 1/3/17) at the end of 2017 ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.

Ethereum will be above $20 at the end of 2017 ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

Ethereum will be above $10 at the end of 2017 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.

There will be a major bug found and exploited in Lightning Networks / Segwit during 2017 (Conditional on deployment before June) ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.

Lightning Networks AND Segwit will be fully deployed before the end of 2017 ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.

Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000 ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

I will finish (in the sense of it being usable) my prediction app by end of June 2017 ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Chri on 2017-01-04; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by Chri on 2017-07-05.

lvl 3 in January 2017 ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ioannes on 2017-01-03; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-31.

Issa Rice will write down a new prediction each day on PredictionBook for the next month ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-03; known on 2017-02-03; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-02-03.

By the end of 2020, gwern will write a new article for the English Wikipedia and Vipul Naik will pay for the work https://contractwork.vipulnaik.com/ ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2021-01-01.

I will finish my dissertation before March 30, 2017 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-05-19.

I will read at least 20 substantive books during 2017 (not reread, excluding light fiction) ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.

I will read at least 30 substantive books during 2017 (not reread, excluding light fiction) ( 50% confidence )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.

The stock market will go down under President Trump (Conditional on him having a 4 year term, Inauguration-Inauguration) ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.

There will be a Republican primary challenger getting >10% of the primary vote in 2020 (conditional on Trump running) ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2020-11-01.

Republicans will maintain control of the House of Representatives in 2018 elections ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-11-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.

There will be no war involving more than one of the US, Russia, China, or any member of the EU on different sides started before 2020 (Measure: Total eventual casualties above 100) ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.

There will be no war involving more than one of the US, Russia, China, or any member of the EU on different sides started in 2017 (Measure: Total eventual casualties above 100) ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2020-11-01.

Given an Obamacare repeal, a full replacement will be passed before the end of 2017 ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.

Repeal of Obamacare, including at least the individual mandate OR minimum coverage rules signed in to law before end of 2017 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.

2017 Annual US GDP Growth < 2% ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-03-23.

2017 Annual US GDP Growth < 4% ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-03-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-03-23.

I will finish 6 or more books this year ( 70% confidence )

Created by Jach on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-03; judged right by Jach on 2018-01-02.

Polygamy is legal in the UK (ie. Marriages between more than two people are permitted to take place within the country) ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by penten on 2017-01-03; known on 2037-01-03.

MSJapan will make an edit on the English Wikipedia in 2017 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Contributions/MSJapan ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-01.

The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for January 2017 than for January 2016. ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-02; known on 2017-02-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-01.

The total number of desktop pageviews for the Colors tag will be lower for January 2017 than for January 2016. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-02; known on 2017-02-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-01.

Vipul Naik will publish a post on the Effective Altruism Forum during 2017 http://effective-altruism.com/user/vipulnaik/submitted/ ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.

I will read 40+ books in 2017 ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2018-01-01.

I will read 30+ books in 2017 ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2018-01-01.

I will read 20+ books in 2017 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2018-01-01.

I will do most of my programming in Elixir in 2017 ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

Israeli–Palestinian conflict comes to an end in 2017 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by mortehu on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

Trump is the acting president of USA on January 1, 2018 ( 91% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by mortehu on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

Resolution 2: I will write the majority of a VisionofEarth.org article + Update my bio ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01.

Resolution 1 : I will spend equal time with people who live within PRISM/walled gardens like facebook as time outside those walls ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.

I will consider myself vegan at any point in 2017 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )