PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

By 2017-03-31 Fri, or by 18:00 on the first day of that job, whichever is the earlier: My credence that I was particularly supposed to or expected to print off one or more copies of one or both of those documents rises, at any point, above 66.0%. ( 43% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-17; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-01.

I meet C tonight ( 50% confidence )

Created by ioannes on 2017-03-16; known on 2017-03-17; judged right by ioannes on 2017-03-17.

“[T]wo years from now, the Center will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of our relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the field.” Prediction will prove true. ( 42% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-16; known on 2019-02-07.

Kentucky wins the NCAA tournament ( 12% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-15; known on 2017-04-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-26.

Villanova doesn't win the NCAA tournament ( 90% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-15; known on 2017-04-03; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-21.

NBE approval comes in ( 60% confidence )

Created by ioannes on 2017-03-15; known on 2017-03-24; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-28.

I will not watch another episode of Billions until 2018 ( 99% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

I finish Infinite Jest by June 2017 ( 95% confidence )

Created by ioannes on 2017-03-13; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-06-01.

This year, Predictionbook will switch its scoring to be logarithmic ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-03-13; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-24.

There will be a Wikipedia page about Vipul Naik's paid editing of Wikipedia, as of April 1, 2018. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-12; known on 2018-04-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-02.

The labor force participation rate will increase above 66% at least once while Trump is on office ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by regex on 2017-03-12; known on 2025-03-12.

Fiction, Webseries, Twig – Helen survives through to the end of 17.14. ( 60% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-12; known on 2017-03-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-03-18.

Fiction, Webcomics, Guilded Age – Both potential warchief trolls survive their fight. ( 70% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-12; known on 2017-03-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-03-27.

Community Project – Challenger Day is run in the UK before the end of April 2017, being run defined as being announced and having at least five people attend. ( 65% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-12; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-04.

Community Project – Rationalist calendar project will have identified at least one of an event or relevant reading for every day of the year before the end of 2017-04-12. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-12; known on 2017-04-13; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-04-14.

Iraq – Mass grave at Badoush prison confirmed by sources outside Hashd al-Shaabi and contains the remains of at least 200 people by the end of 2017-03-26. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-12; known on 2017-03-27; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-03-31.

The United States will be at war by the end of the year ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-03-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-01-01.

Vipul will get married before he dies ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-11; known on 3001-01-01.

I will have a gf at some point ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-11; known on 3001-01-01.

Vipul Naik will have a girlfriend at some point in 2017 or later, in the 21st century. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-11; known on 2101-01-01.

Issa will get another girlfriend in this century ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-11; known on 2100-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2020-09-09.

I will post more on Facebook in 2017 than I did in 2016 (as judged by myself). ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-11; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.

By 2018 The Kernel Project will have reached step 9 as defined in https://docs.google.com/document/d/1wmVZJiDjTjxmVshSFSk2rH-b8GLiQ0DJ0Cw1hyOnswM/edit?usp=sharing ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by bendini on 2017-03-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-08-01.

My MRI will be at the doctor on Wednesday ( 98% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-03-15; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-16.

Kyle Chapman (based stick man) will be convicted on assault charges in 2017 ( 11% confidence )

Created by Dapple on 2017-03-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-02.

Kyle Chapman (based stick man) will face prosecution for assault charges in 2017 ( 20% confidence )

Created by Dapple on 2017-03-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-02.

Second date with L ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by ioannes on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-13.

I will be able to pull up 50% of my body weight by the end of October ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-10-31; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-11-07.

I will be able to do a one armed pull up by the end of October ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by splorridge on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-10-31; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-11-07.

I will be able to do a muscle up by end of October ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by splorridge on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-10-31; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-11-07.

Trump will be removed from office before his term is complete. ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sdd167 on 2017-03-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-01-04.

The COIN thread on Vipul Naik's paid editing enterprise will continue to receive at least three comments a day as of March 15, 2017. ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-09; known on 2017-03-16; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-16.

Vipul Naik will be banned from editing Wikipedia as of March 31, 2017. ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-09; known on 2017-04-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01.

There will be a standalone Wikipedia page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Facebook as of March 31, 2017. ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-09; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Issa Rice on 2017-04-02.

There will be a standalone Wikipedia page about GiveWell https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GiveWell as of March 31, 2017. ( 54% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-09; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-02.

By 2017-12-31 Sun: I do a workout in which I measure my mass and in which I do five sets of five reps of overhead press at [70kg or 0.85x my body mass, whichever is the greater] raw. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-08; known on 2018-01-01.

Peter Singer actually wasn't no-platformed in March 2017 ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by ioannes on 2017-03-08; known on 2017-04-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-10.

Resolute gets treble damages against Greenpeace thanks to RICO (from 2017 case) ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-08; known on 2023-12-31.

One+ date this week ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ioannes on 2017-03-07; known on 2017-03-13; judged right by ioannes on 2017-03-13.

Full test goes ahead as planned tomorrow ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by penten on 2017-03-07; known on 2017-03-08; judged wrong by penten on 2017-03-08.

By the end of the sprint we will have simplified the setup of Bellroy project by removing at-least 2-3 manual tasks such as sample files, database creation, initial webpack. ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jais Cheema on 2017-03-07; known on 2017-03-20; judged right by Jais Cheema on 2017-03-20.

We would have working airflow Dag by the end of this sprint ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jais Cheema on 2017-03-07; known on 2017-03-20; judged wrong by Jais Cheema on 2017-03-20.

By removing the review bottleneck and empowering developers, Team Fox expects to ship at least 10% more points this sprint. ( 70% confidence )

Created by jack_trike on 2017-03-07; known on 2017-03-21; judged wrong by jack_trike on 2017-03-21.

WCCP gets absolutely fucked (damaged so much that it must be abandoned) ( 39% confidence )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-06-01.

Two+ dates this week ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ioannes on 2017-03-06; known on 2017-03-13; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-13.

4d ( 70% confidence )