Dalwa al Islamyya or one of their affiliates rules >50% of Yemen ( 54% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-15; known on 2021-01-01.

FourSquare to still exist as an independent entity by 2020 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.

Manage to make the REDACTED sufficiently fun and interesting that we can get the core concepts integrated into the series by REDACTED. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Temeraire on 2017-04-29; known on 2021-01-01.

Number of front-end developers to be higher in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.

Number of back-end developers to be higher in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.

gyazo to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-19; known on 2021-01-01.

New 12.5%+ tax on all goods entering the US from china (post jan 2017) ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-15; known on 2021-01-01.

Instagram to allow screenshots to be taken of computer/smartphone screenshots by 2020 ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-19; known on 2021-01-01.

Slack to allow unpaid slacks to view messages older than 10,000 messages old sometime before 2020 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2017-02-07; known on 2021-01-01.

On average, there will be more measles cases in the last half of the 2010s than the first half of the 2010s ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2021-01-01.

Google widely seen (by investors, wall street) as having successfully solved the issue of how to monetise a voice-centric world (including if such a world does not occur, or they avoid the problem). ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2021-01-01.

LessWrong to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Ontario leaves cap & trade system ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2021-01-01.

Quora to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Akasha Project less than 100,000 active users ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2021-01-01.

compulsory conscription in sweden, or sweden invaded ( 57% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-17; known on 2021-01-01.

SENS Foundation to reach a budget of 10 million dollars a year by 2020 (https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/3fri9a/ask_aubrey_de_grey_anything/ctrjwxm ) ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-05; known on 2021-01-01.

Something gets leaked that makes Donald Trump look dumb. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2021-01-01.

larry flynt pays out 10m$ ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-15; known on 2020-12-31.

The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open either its Milpitas or its Berryessa station within 12 months after opening its Warm Springs/South Fremont station. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2020-12-31.

There will be a breach of a large cloud service provider that will compromise thousands of sensitive accounts within this decade. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by SRA311B on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-12-31.

Bill Simmons: Sports gambling legal in the US by 2020 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2014-09-06; known on 2020-12-31.

“A March 2004 article stated: "More than 3.5 billion years after nature transformed non-living matter into living things, populating Earth with a cornucopia of animals and plants, scientists say they are finally ready to try their hand at creating life. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-12-31.

[Regardless of who is president] The presidential nominee will have a beginning approval rating lower than 57% ( 68% confidence )

Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-12-31.

Gamestop will reopen before the end of the year ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by daveisright on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31.

Crypto-to-crypto trades may be considered (by the IRS) like-kind (not trigger capital gains). Void if it is not litigated or the IRS never delivers an official judgement. ( 2% confidence )

Created by lavalamp on 2017-11-30; known on 2020-12-31.

Saudi Arabia misses key financial targets ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31.

Darksydephil loses his house (or begins an unavoidable slide in that direction) ( 75% confidence )

Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31.

“By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible method of electrical power generation, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy than was used to ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-28; known on 2020-12-31.

Uber CEO to actually buy Half a Million Autonomous Electric Cars from Tesla By 2020 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31.

“there is a student at 75% or so of high schools in 2020 that will take bets on future predictions on any subject” —magfrump ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-12-31.

KPCB’s Internet Trends Report will hit 1,800 pages by 2020 ( 34% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01; known on 2020-12-31.

By the end of 2020, the obesity rate among adults 20 years or older in the United States will drop from 34.9% in 2012 to 30%… +/- .9 percent. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Lissy on 2015-11-04; known on 2020-12-31.

Bill Gates won't develop an affordable water-less toilet for the third world by 2020 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2020-12-31.

At least some class of felons(for example those on a sex offender registry with convictions of violent crime) in the US required to get microchips implanted in them upon release ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-16; known on 2020-12-31.

Humboldt Fog will be super popular (written up as super trendy in a mainstream publication) at some point before 2020 ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Benquo on 2015-02-14; known on 2020-12-31.

Bharat's middle class will reach 200 million by 2020. ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-02; known on 2020-12-30.

Bharat will pass the Deutschland on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 4th biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2020. ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-13; known on 2020-12-27.

Bharat total exports in world markets to be 3.5% by 2020, doubling it in five years. USD 900 billion by 2020, almost double from USD 461 billion in 2013-14. -High Commissioner Vijay Thakur Singh ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known on 2020-12-26.

Bharat: HNWI wealth is forecasted at USD 1.425 trillion in 2016, rising to USD 2.3 trillion by 2020. —Julius Baer wealth report ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-02; known on 2020-12-25.

Bharat will reach 1.4 billion mobile connections by 2020, when mobile penetration will reach 100 per cent. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2020-12-25.

It takes Newport News the better part of a decade to build a single supercarrier. China has no experience building any ship the size of an aircraft carrier—even a moderate-sized one like Liaoning. A minimum of 9 years can be inferred from their statement. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2020-12-25.

Bharat to be third-biggest defence spender by 2020 -IHS Defence Budgets Annual Report ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-08; known on 2020-12-25.

Malaysia will be a high income country by 2020. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-03; known on 2020-12-25.

Palau, Panama, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, will be high income countries by 2020. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-09; known on 2020-12-25.

Mission Indradhanush will provide full immunization coverage in Bharat from 65% in 2014 to at least 90% children in the next 5 years. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-12; known on 2020-12-25.

Costa Rica, Brasil, Mauritius will be high income countries (World Bank definition) by 2020. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-03; known on 2020-12-25.

Bharat will reduce emission intensity of the economy by 25% from its 2005 levels by 2020. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-02; known on 2020-12-25.

Zhongguo(中国) will outspend the US on science by 2020 ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known on 2020-12-25.