Unjudged Predictions
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Bharat to be a $3.5 trillion economy by 2020: Sonal Varma, Nomura ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-02; known on 2020-12-25.
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All Electric Vehicles will be 50% of new car sales in USA by 2030 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mkumba on 2020-12-24; known on 2020-12-25.
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I will have read 100 books ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-21.
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Business income grows by at least 10% ( 70% confidence )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-21.
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Conditional on border checkpoints being set up along the UK-Ireland border, there will be an attack on the checkpoints or border guards ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2020-12-16.
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At launch, the cheapest PS5 available from an authorized retailer in the United States will cost more than $500 (excl. tax, shipping) ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-12-10.
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New medical breakthrough will revolutionize battlefield care by late 2020. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2020-11-30.
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The 7-day rolling average of postive test % will be above 12% for Oregon. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Justinthere on 2020-11-20; known on 2020-11-23.
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The daily high temp in Portland will be below 53F. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Justinthere on 2020-11-20; known on 2020-11-23.
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Survey of 40 random saskatchewanians (or whoever lives in that area in 2020) will reveal Brad Wall's tweet in 2016 as 'ridiculous' ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-05; known on 2020-11-22.
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My November 2020 self will think Brexit is on net bad (ALL things considered) ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-11-20; known on 2020-11-20.
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If I ever understand monetary policy properly, I’ll think that Scott Sumner is basically right about NGDP targeting etc ( 80% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-11-17; known on 2020-11-17.
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Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-17.
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Turtle Island Foods (owners of the brand “Tofurky”) lawsuit against the new Missouri meat terminology law will fail, at least before appeals ( 60% confidence )
Created by prophetofprofit on 2018-08-30; known on 2020-11-16.
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I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Dapple on 2017-01-05; known on 2020-11-08.
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1190432 MCN maligne entartet ( 75% confidence )
Created by prosti on 2020-10-20; known on 2020-10-23.
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Telegram app will block in some countries. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by smodnix on 2020-06-24; known on 2020-10-20.
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COVID, Europe/USA – Whithin 4 weeks, there will be more new infections per day in Europe than in the US. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by NickN on 2020-09-12; known on 2020-10-12.
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US will have one of the hottest 3 summers in Summer 2020 ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2020-10-01.
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Android studio morirá en dos años. Flutter se corona como el sucesor, Segun Juan. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-23; known on 2020-09-23.
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Fredy predice que Python desaparecerá Python se reduce a 70% popularidad (Moisés dice que lo revivirá) ( 60% confidence )
Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-23; known on 2020-09-23.
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9252916 Liposarkom ( 60% confidence )
Created by prosti on 2020-09-15; known on 2020-09-22.
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just setting up my twttr ( 0% confidence )
Created by liamisntsure on 2020-09-09; known on 2020-09-09.
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Climate Change – August 2020 will be the 428th-consecutive month with temperatures above the 20th-century average, according to NOAA ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NickN on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-09-01.
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On 2018-09-01, the Center for Human-Compatible AI will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of Open Philanthropy Project's relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the field ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2020-09-01.
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If we implement operator by Wednesday Aug 19, then on next Tuesday meeting, our First Time to respond will avg <1 hour. Luke's prediction. ( 99% confidence )
Created by maneesh on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-26.
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If Caleb and I move our morning to call to 10:30am ET, I believe that, we will both be happier about the call time and results. If so, we may consider even earlier ( 60% confidence )
Created by maneesh on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-19.
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Install window tomorrow ( 80% confidence )
Created by pbadger on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-13.
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Try wall paint on sample tomorrow ( 90% confidence )
Created by pbadger on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-13.
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Harvard to reopen for fall 2020 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2020-08-01.
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still living in chicago on Aug 1 ( 70% confidence )
Created by joshuabecker on 2020-06-10; known on 2020-08-01.
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I'll have my portfolio site completely updated by COB Friday, July 31. ( 70% confidence )
Created by dbrentp on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-07-31.
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1330926 język rosnie? ( 75% confidence )
Created by mackiewelina on 2020-05-09; known on 2020-07-31.
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Rainfall in 2020 will be at least 49% of historic levels in California. (Using the standard June to July year) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-23; known on 2020-07-25.
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1186620 RCC papillär ( 90% confidence )
Created by prosti on 2020-07-09; known on 2020-07-23.
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None of the main 4 characters in Outer Banks will die in season 1 ( 90% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-06-25.
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The masked singer season 3 kitty is Maisie Williams ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ianharrison on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-06-15.
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Chris Shinski will like J-pop in 2020. ( 65% confidence )
Created by spqr0a1 on 2012-03-31; known on 2020-06-01.
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6183331e9007a573863190a476a3abb8 quits SaskTel ( 43% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2020-06-01.
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This sore throat I’ve had for 5 days won’t turn into anything worse ( 95% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-06-01.
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Lockheed Martin claims up to 3500 F-35 will be ordered. A look at the price and the previous track record of the F-22 instead leads to a certainty that all orders combined will be lucky to hit 940. That is 1/4 of LM claims. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-21; known on 2020-05-23.
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Morocco will require people to wears mask 2 weeks following the end of quarantine ( 60% confidence )
Created by kvfi on 2020-05-05; known on 2020-05-20.
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I will graduate medical school ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nelson.horsley@gmail.com on 2016-09-18; known on 2020-05-16.
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The Masked Singer season 3 Turtle is Nick Jonas ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ianharrison on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-05-15.
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The Masked Singer season 3 Kangaroo is Iggy Izalia ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ianharrison on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-05-15.
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Michael F. Roman will be fired as ceo of 3M ( 30% confidence )
Created by Rsfinley23 on 2020-04-04; known on 2020-05-15.
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Indian stock market crashes before 2020 ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jp870 on 2018-05-10; known on 2020-05-12.
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At least one Sask Party MLA elected in 2016 put in jail ( 58% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2020-04-20.
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Army corps of engineers will build additional hospitals/testing around NYC/NJ ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daveisright on 2020-03-17; known on 2020-04-03.
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EU to succeed in its target of cutting greenhouse gas levels to 20% of 1990 levels by 2020. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2020-02-01.