I will still be using Prediction Book in 3 year's time. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-29; known on 2021-03-29.

A major fast food restaurant, or a 3rd-party company attempts drone delivery within 5 years. (Judgment right if available in more than one area) ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2021-03-25.

I won't wake up sick tommorrow ( 90% confidence )

Created by sallatik on 2021-03-22; known on 2021-03-23.

Russia's GDP will decline by more than 10% this year #coronavirus , https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1240818241502658566 (duplicating March 20 bet) ( 50% confidence )

Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2021-03-15.

PA will get snow tomorrow. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Taylorb on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-16.

PAP becomes privatized and murders former shenzenites ( 58% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-04; known on 2021-02-04.

“If present trends continue, over the next ten years almost $500 billion of Title IV loans will have been funneled to this industry. We estimate total defaults of $275 billion, and because of fees associated with defaults, for profit students will owe $3 ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2021-02-01.

At least four GiveWell staff members with inputs in our cost-effectiveness model change their moral weights for either valuing health vs. income or age-weighting by at least 25%, and they attribute that change to IDinsight's beneficiary preferences survey ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2019-06-23; known on 2021-02-01.

19.12.1982 Solitärer fibröser Tumor myxoides Stroma/Hämangioperizytom Schwannom ( 60% confidence )

Created by prosti on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-01-27.

Trump's investigation into illegal voting will report at least 500,000 illegal votes cast in the 2016 election. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by regex on 2017-01-25; known on 2021-01-25.

L frontal pilocytic astrocytoma MRN: 036220407 ( 70% confidence )

Created by mohalagha1987 on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-25.

Total minority population of US citizens will increase throughout Trump presidency. ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.

Neither Trump nor any of his officials (Cabinet, etc) will endorse the KKK, Stormfront, or explicit neo-Nazis publicly, refuse to back down, etc, and keep their job. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.

US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency. ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.

Total US hate crimes incidents (see comment) will not be more than 125% at any year during Trump presidency. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.

Mealsquares will be more popular than soylent (by number of customers) by 2020 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-16.

AWS will announce an ap-southeast-3 region for Western Australia, by the end of 2020 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by bly on 2019-12-04; known on 2021-01-16.

on time ( 40% confidence )

Created by linz07 on 2020-12-06; known on 2021-01-16.

I will stick to nopo tomorrow ( 50% confidence )

Created by projectaligned on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-12.

wear invisalign tomorrow for at least 6 hours ( 25% confidence )

Created by projectaligned on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-12.

I can finish MECHANICS OF MATERIAL homework today. ( 20% confidence )

Created by gohbinwei on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-12.

We will be able to identify the genome-wide significant SNPs (collectively) responsible for 10% of the heritability in adult IQ by 2020 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-03.

The total hate crime incidents as measured by the FBI's Uniform Crime Report will be no more than 125% of their 2015 value at any year during a Trump presidency, conditional on similar reporting methodology. ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-11-18; known on 2021-01-02.

Data published by Cisco in 2019 or 2020 about total volume of IP traffic per month in 2019 will show an amount more than 10% higher than their prediction of 186 EB. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-04; known on 2021-01-02.

Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.16 in 2020 ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-22; known on 2021-01-02.

The Netherlands will make their 2020 Urgenda climate goal ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Stucwerk on 2019-11-26; known on 2021-01-01.

I will use PredictionBook at least once a month until Jan 2021 ( 51% confidence )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-19; known on 2021-01-01.

For the year of 2020, natural gas will account for a higher percentage of US energy consumption than wind and solar power combined. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-18; known on 2021-01-01.

US obesity rate above 28.9% in 2020 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-26; known on 2021-01-01.

“By 2020, solar energy will be price-competitive with energy generated from fossil fuels on an unsubsidized basis in most parts of the world.” – Vivek Wadhwa ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Halflife 3 will be VR-based (conditional on HL3 being released) ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.

Ontario leaves cap & trade system ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2021-01-01.

SNPs to explain at least 5% of the variability for autism will be identified by 2020 ( 30% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.

adsfasdfasdf ( 70% confidence )

Created by daffy on 2020-05-12; known on 2021-01-01.

MIT Course 6 (EECS) to still be MIT's most popular major by 2020 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.

Daffy will move out of the Bay Area ( 70% confidence )

Created by daffy on 2020-05-12; known on 2021-01-01.

By 2021, iOS/iPad will be/have a full fledged development environment for app development. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by silacoid on 2016-06-14; known on 2021-01-01.

SENS Foundation to reach a budget of 10 million dollars a year by 2020 (https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/3fri9a/ask_aubrey_de_grey_anything/ctrjwxm ) ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-05; known on 2021-01-01.

“Some p2p cryptocurrency is going to become THE world reserve currency this decade” – Jacob Cannell ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.

Scientists will find life on Enceladus before 2020, this information will lead us to realize life is also plentiful in the universe in different forms. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jprettner on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-01.

Blockchain-based social platform to come out by 2020, and become a Top 1000 site (https://medium.com/@ryanxcharles/fix-reddit-with-bitcoin-7da3f85fb9ba ) ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.

There will be an commercially available way to auto-scan all your old notebooks into your hard drives by 2020 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.

Movie theaters to be less popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-25; known on 2021-01-01.

Rex Computing products (including the Neo Chip) to capture at least 1% of the CPU market by 2020 (see http://fortune.com/2015/07/21/rex-computing/?xid=soc_socialflow_facebook_FORTUNE, http://www.rexcomputing.com/) ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-22; known on 2021-01-01.

Goodreads to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-22; known on 2021-01-01.

The Verge to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2021-01-01.

On average, there will be more measles cases in the last half of the 2010s than the first half of the 2010s ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2021-01-01.

Instagram to allow screenshots to be taken of computer/smartphone screenshots by 2020 ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-19; known on 2021-01-01.