[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 25% of the time ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 50% of the time ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 95% of the time ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 99.5% of the time ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-01; known on 2023-02-16.

[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 75% of the time ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.

In the future, a woman will be on the agenda with great scientific research, and this case will affect female software developers in a good way. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by smodnix on 2020-07-11; known on 2023-01-20.

I will self-identify as vegan ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-17; known on 2023-01-16.

ASOIAF: Wba Fabj vf jnetrq ol Oybbqenira be Oena (be obgu) ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2016-04-28; known on 2023-01-02.

ASOIAF: Wba Fabj jvyy or jnetrq ol Oybbqenira ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by muflax on 2016-04-27; known on 2023-01-02.

I will not believe in the Christian God in Jan 2023 ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-24; known on 2023-01-01.

By 2020, [nearly] all hybrids will be plug-ins. —Alyssa Vance ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01.

By 2022, some roads will be self-driving-only. —Alyssa Vance ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01.

Uber's valuation to be less than half that of its 2015 valuation by 2022 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-09; known on 2023-01-01.

Ooga and Ashley break up ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01.

Astronomers will detect a planet where alcohol is thought to rain from the sky. ( 36% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-07-12; known on 2023-01-01.

One of Italy/Spain/Portugal/Germany will leave the EU before 2023 ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.

“advances in personal aviation will cause the cost of land in big sur, ca and other remote areas within 250mi of major metropolitan cities to at least triple within the next 15 years – outperforming the s&p 500 over that period.” ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-01-01.

I'm going to manage to figure out how to align what I want to want and what I do want by the end of the year ( 70% confidence )

Created by rajlego on 2022-10-14; known on 2023-01-01.

AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023 ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.

In the next ten years, self-identified anarchists will out number self-identified Greens in the US. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01.

Chen-Ning Yang to become a centenarian ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2023-01-01.

Jonathan Rosin will be sentenced to at least a year in jail by January 1, 2023 ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-11; known on 2023-01-01.

There will be more janitors in the U.S. in 2022 than there will be in 2012 (http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm ) ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2023-01-01.

Food shortages, resurgent Islamic radicalism, and a torrent of oil revenues will cause an “Arab Spring” movement to overthrow the Saudi Arabian government (http://rationalconspiracy.com/2012/11/23/the-real-america-of-2022/) ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2023-01-01.

[Covid origin:] A natural origin near Wuhan is found for the virus by 2023 ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.

I will get a mortgage in 2022 ( 80% confidence )

Created by FergusFettes on 2022-08-16; known on 2023-01-01.

[Covid origin:] The virus is definitively found to be a bioweapon, released deliberately or accidently by 2023 (<1% chance) ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.

Ben: In 2022, in the US, >50% of the top 5% of citizens by income who use computers will not be using a mouse / keyboard. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-07-09; known on 2023-01-01.

I will go to Oxford before the end of 2022. ( 30% confidence )

Created by mgerov on 2022-11-06; known on 2023-01-01.

assassinations are attempted against both Georgia senators ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by technillogue on 2021-01-14; known on 2023-01-01.

convictions for attempted murders of at least three of {Republicans who voted to impeach, Georgia senators, Biden, Harris} before 2023 ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by technillogue on 2021-01-14; known on 2023-01-01.

Github will not censor libreboot corresponding source code off its service ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-21; known on 2023-01-01.

'Nanotech clothing enters the mass market' by 2022 ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.

A male friend of mine will marry a woman, only to have it revealed later that she's transitioning to being a man ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-25; known on 2023-01-01.

'Piezoelectric nanowires are appearing in high-end products' by 2022 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.

The US will have have laws or regulations to outlaw normal people destroying drones by end of 2022 (10 years from now) ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 33 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2022-12-31.

[Marginal Revolution] Facebook Credits, or some other pseudo-currency, will become widely accepted for offline transactions throughout the world within ten years. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-03-02; known on 2022-12-31.

Some technology invented after 2017 that actually scares me. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-29; known on 2022-12-31.

“In 2022 the US economy will no longer be held to be the world leader in global environmental degradation.” ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2022-12-31.

I picked a major professional goal ( 18% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mckiev on 2022-04-22; known on 2022-12-31.

I will get to 12% bodyfat by the end of 2022 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mckiev on 2022-04-22; known on 2022-12-31.

In 2022, The New York Times will follow up it's article on free speech in the U.S. by suggesting that mainstream news organizations should hire more conservative writers (affirmative action for conservatives). ( 80% confidence )

Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-12-31.

Conditional on vaccine mandates being enacted, my sister will get vaccinated by end of 2022 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sty.silver on 2021-12-05; known on 2022-12-31.

CL will not win the next N23 trivia quiz ;-) ( 89% confidence )

Created by TheOrme on 2022-05-05; known on 2022-12-31.

Kliemannsland will have rebranded or closed by the end of 2022. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Leifa on 2022-06-27; known on 2022-12-31.

DRM-free games now selling more copies than DRM-encumbered ones ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-10; known on 2022-12-31.

China's Cap and Trade system still up and running ( 66% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-04; known on 2022-12-31.