Movie theaters to be less popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-25; known on 2021-01-01.

Rex Computing products (including the Neo Chip) to capture at least 1% of the CPU market by 2020 (see http://fortune.com/2015/07/21/rex-computing/?xid=soc_socialflow_facebook_FORTUNE, http://www.rexcomputing.com/) ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-22; known on 2021-01-01.

Goodreads to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-22; known on 2021-01-01.

The Verge to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2021-01-01.

On average, there will be more measles cases in the last half of the 2010s than the first half of the 2010s ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2021-01-01.

Instagram to allow screenshots to be taken of computer/smartphone screenshots by 2020 ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-19; known on 2021-01-01.

gyazo to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-19; known on 2021-01-01.

Number of back-end developers to be higher in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.

Number of front-end developers to be higher in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.

Volume of physical books sold in 2020 to be greater than that in 2015 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.

25I-NBOMe to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2021-01-01.

nautil.us to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.

aeon.co to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/ to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.

BuzzFeed to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.

cracked.com to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 30% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.

Something gets leaked that makes Donald Trump look dumb. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2021-01-01.

io9 to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.

vox to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.

We will be able to identify the genes (collectively) responsible for 10% of the variance in ADHD by 2020 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.

Dalwa al Islamyya or one of their affiliates rules >50% of Yemen ( 54% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-15; known on 2021-01-01.

Haskell to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Java to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Javascript to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 45% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Python to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Coursera to become more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 55% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

College Confidential to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 20% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Harvard to have more undergraduates in 2020 than 2015 ( 55% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Age of Empires II to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Facebook to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

LiveJournal to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

LessWrong to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Quora to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

reddit to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Baseball to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 30% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Football to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 30% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Soccer to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Chess to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 45% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Poker to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

World of Warcraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

U.S. equities will return 1.8% 2010-2020. —Smithers & Co. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2021-01-01.

League of Legends to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Major personalities on predictionbook (gwern, JoshuaZ, etc) will migrate over to another prediction-based website by 2020 ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

feedly will be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 25% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.

epub to be the most popular file format for eBooks in 2020 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.

FourSquare to still exist as an independent entity by 2020 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.

PDFy will stay intact to 2020 ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.

Daniel Dennett to do an IAmA on reddit by 2020 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.

Quora to be more popular than reddit by 2020 ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.

Dog Aging Study (http://dogagingproject.com/project-details/ ) to show that rapamycin will improve healthspan of middle-aged dogs by at least 2 years ( 75% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.