Neither Trump nor any of his officials (Cabinet, etc) will endorse the KKK, Stormfront, or explicit neo-Nazis publicly, refuse to back down, etc, and keep their job. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.

Total US hate crimes incidents (see comment) will not be more than 125% at any year during Trump presidency. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.

Mealsquares will be more popular than soylent (by number of customers) by 2020 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-16.

AWS will announce an ap-southeast-3 region for Western Australia, by the end of 2020 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by bly on 2019-12-04; known on 2021-01-16.

on time ( 40% confidence )

Created by linz07 on 2020-12-06; known on 2021-01-16.

I will stick to nopo tomorrow ( 50% confidence )

Created by projectaligned on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-12.

I can finish MECHANICS OF MATERIAL homework today. ( 20% confidence )

Created by gohbinwei on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-12.

wear invisalign tomorrow for at least 6 hours ( 25% confidence )

Created by projectaligned on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-01-12.

We will be able to identify the genome-wide significant SNPs (collectively) responsible for 10% of the heritability in adult IQ by 2020 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-03.

The total hate crime incidents as measured by the FBI's Uniform Crime Report will be no more than 125% of their 2015 value at any year during a Trump presidency, conditional on similar reporting methodology. ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-11-18; known on 2021-01-02.

Data published by Cisco in 2019 or 2020 about total volume of IP traffic per month in 2019 will show an amount more than 10% higher than their prediction of 186 EB. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-04; known on 2021-01-02.

Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.16 in 2020 ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-22; known on 2021-01-02.

The Netherlands will make their 2020 Urgenda climate goal ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Stucwerk on 2019-11-26; known on 2021-01-01.

I will use PredictionBook at least once a month until Jan 2021 ( 51% confidence )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-19; known on 2021-01-01.

For the year of 2020, natural gas will account for a higher percentage of US energy consumption than wind and solar power combined. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-18; known on 2021-01-01.

US obesity rate above 28.9% in 2020 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-26; known on 2021-01-01.

“By 2020, solar energy will be price-competitive with energy generated from fossil fuels on an unsubsidized basis in most parts of the world.” – Vivek Wadhwa ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-13; known on 2021-01-01.

Terrorist Attack in US with >12 deaths or new US version of Falklands War (ie not war with Russia, China, EU but 'smaller country') ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19; known on 2021-01-01.

New 12.5%+ tax on all goods entering the US from china (post jan 2017) ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-15; known on 2021-01-01.

Abortion illegal in at least one state in the US / Roe v. Wade overturned / passed through Senate/Congress/President/Supreme Court ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01.

Thiel Fellowship will still run in 2020 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.

At least one of the UK, France, Germany, US or China will not meet their goals committed at the UN climate change conference in Paris. ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-17; known on 2021-01-01.

Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is < 7 ( 12% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2021-01-01.

Google widely seen (by investors, wall street) as having successfully solved the issue of how to monetise a voice-centric world (including if such a world does not occur, or they avoid the problem). ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2021-01-01.

Scientists will find life on Enceladus before 2020, this information will lead us to realize life is also plentiful in the universe in different forms. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jprettner on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-01.

In it's Fighter X program to replace a fleet of Boeing F-18 fighters with modern aicraft, Finland will choose to purchase an amount of 50-70 JAS Gripen-E fighters from Saab, augmented by 5-10 F35 jets on a lease deal to reduce operating costs. ( 70% confidence )

Created by viissataa on 2018-02-26; known on 2021-01-01.

Something gets leaked that makes Donald Trump look dumb. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2021-01-01.

Trump explicitly invokes a credit wake ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-17; known on 2021-01-01.

compulsory conscription in sweden, or sweden invaded ( 57% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-17; known on 2021-01-01.

adsfasdfasdf ( 70% confidence )

Created by daffy on 2020-05-12; known on 2021-01-01.

Number of countries bombed by the US in 2020 is > 7 ( 87% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2021-01-01.

China floats the yuan ( 47% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01.

Slack to allow unpaid slacks to view messages older than 10,000 messages old sometime before 2020 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2017-02-07; known on 2021-01-01.

'Ultra High Definition Television (4320p) is available in domestic homes ' by 2021 ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2021-01-01.

Federal government of Canada passes law mandating divulging passwords ( 64% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-20; known on 2021-01-01.

SNPs to explain at least 5% of the variability for autism will be identified by 2020 ( 30% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.

Halflife 3 will be VR-based (conditional on HL3 being released) ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.

HeavenGames to last to (at least) 2020 ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.

at least 2 political prisoners executed in US ( 84% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01.

Federal government of Canada passes law banning encryption use ( 54% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-20; known on 2021-01-01.

SENS Foundation to reach a budget of 10 million dollars a year by 2020 (https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/3fri9a/ask_aubrey_de_grey_anything/ctrjwxm ) ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-05; known on 2021-01-01.

61%+ unemployment, 96%+ water unsafe, over 75k homeless, over 50% of them children, <6 hours/day of electricity in gaza (at least 3 of the above) ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-28; known on 2021-01-01.

MIT Course 6 (EECS) to still be MIT's most popular major by 2020 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.

“Some p2p cryptocurrency is going to become THE world reserve currency this decade” – Jacob Cannell ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.

Blockchain-based social platform to come out by 2020, and become a Top 1000 site (https://medium.com/@ryanxcharles/fix-reddit-with-bitcoin-7da3f85fb9ba ) ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.

There will be an commercially available way to auto-scan all your old notebooks into your hard drives by 2020 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.

Movie theaters to be less popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-25; known on 2021-01-01.

Rex Computing products (including the Neo Chip) to capture at least 1% of the CPU market by 2020 (see http://fortune.com/2015/07/21/rex-computing/?xid=soc_socialflow_facebook_FORTUNE, http://www.rexcomputing.com/) ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-22; known on 2021-01-01.

Goodreads to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-22; known on 2021-01-01.