Unjudged Predictions
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Blockchain-based social platform to come out by 2020, and become a Top 1000 site (https://medium.com/@ryanxcharles/fix-reddit-with-bitcoin-7da3f85fb9ba ) ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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There will be an commercially available way to auto-scan all your old notebooks into your hard drives by 2020 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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China floats the yuan ( 47% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01.
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Movie theaters to be less popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-25; known on 2021-01-01.
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Goodreads to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-22; known on 2021-01-01.
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Rex Computing products (including the Neo Chip) to capture at least 1% of the CPU market by 2020 (see http://fortune.com/2015/07/21/rex-computing/?xid=soc_socialflow_facebook_FORTUNE, http://www.rexcomputing.com/) ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-22; known on 2021-01-01.
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The Verge to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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On average, there will be more measles cases in the last half of the 2010s than the first half of the 2010s ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Manage to make the REDACTED sufficiently fun and interesting that we can get the core concepts integrated into the series by REDACTED. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-04-29; known on 2021-01-01.
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Instagram to allow screenshots to be taken of computer/smartphone screenshots by 2020 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-19; known on 2021-01-01.
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gyazo to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-19; known on 2021-01-01.
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Number of back-end developers to be higher in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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Number of front-end developers to be higher in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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Volume of physical books sold in 2020 to be greater than that in 2015 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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25I-NBOMe to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2021-01-01.
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nautil.us to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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aeon.co to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/ to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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BuzzFeed to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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cracked.com to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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io9 to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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vox to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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We will be able to identify the genes (collectively) responsible for 10% of the variance in ADHD by 2020 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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Haskell to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Java to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Javascript to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 45% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Python to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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adsfasdfasdf ( 70% confidence )
Created by daffy on 2020-05-12; known on 2021-01-01.
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Coursera to become more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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College Confidential to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 20% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Harvard to have more undergraduates in 2020 than 2015 ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Age of Empires II to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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U.S. equities will return 1.8% 2010-2020. —Smithers & Co. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Facebook to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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LiveJournal to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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LessWrong to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Quora to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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reddit to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Baseball to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Football to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Soccer to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Chess to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 45% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Poker to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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World of Warcraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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League of Legends to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Major personalities on predictionbook (gwern, JoshuaZ, etc) will migrate over to another prediction-based website by 2020 ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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feedly will be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 25% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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epub to be the most popular file format for eBooks in 2020 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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FourSquare to still exist as an independent entity by 2020 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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PDFy will stay intact to 2020 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.