PredictionBook: Unjudged Predictions

Domestic per capita water use in California will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 30% confidence )

Created by btrettel on 2015-05-23; known on 2020-01-01.

Texas irrigation application rate (acre-feet of water per acre of land) will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-05-20; known on 2020-01-01.

Domestic per capita water use in Texas will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 30% confidence )

Created by btrettel on 2015-05-23; known on 2020-01-01.

California irrigation application rate (acre-feet of water per acre of land) will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-05-20; known on 2020-01-01.

I will attempt suicide within the following decade. ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-05-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by Tuxedage on 2021-11-02.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its December 2016 grant to Impact Justice for its Restorative Justice Project a cost-effective success on 2018-01-01 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.

“That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.” ( 85% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01.

“sites like intrade gain prestige in the next decade” ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-01-01.

The first functional, 3D printed television/monitor screen will be demonstrated by 2020. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-30; known on 2020-01-01.

The tentative announcement of possible technological civilizations outside our solar system will precede widely-accepted confirmation of extraterrestrial life within our own solar system. (based on announcements in peer-reviewed jounals) ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-05-25; known on 2020-01-01.

There will be a new DSM version released by 2020, replacing the current DSM-V. Can be a revision (i.e., DSM-V TR) ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2020-01-01.

CNC Mills designed specifically for the manufacture of ghost guns (such as ghost gunner which is designed for easy AR-15 manufacturing) will be illegal (or effectively banned) in the U.S. by 2020 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by prophetofprofit on 2015-09-12; known on 2020-01-01.

Prediction: Soon after the bitcoin-classic fork succeeds, layoffs will start at BlockStream. ( 4% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-17; known on 2020-01-01.

>0 serotonergic drugs withdrawn from US market, OR loses >0 of its FDA approved indication (before 2020) ( 18% confidence )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-08; known on 2020-01-01.

uniforms aside, I will not wear sweatpants more than half the days in 2019 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-03; known on 2020-01-01.

[The number of impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017 claimed by 80,000 Hours will be at least] 1,500 ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.

[The number of impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017 claimed by 80,000 Hours will be at least] 2,400 ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.

80,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.

On 2018-01-01, Nick Beckstead believes that cause prioritization working groups at universities are a cost-effective way of identifying new talent in the EA community (cond. on there being at least 3 such working groups, which he thinks is likely) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.

On 2018-01-01, Open Philanthropy Research Analyst Ajeya Cotra thinks CEA’s support of EA student groups has improved since September 2016 (conditional on Ajeya feeling she has enough evidence to make such a judgment) ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.

[Star Trek: Disco] Nfvqr sebz gur zlpryvny argjbex, gur grpu orvat zber nqinaprq guna va gur bevtvany frevrf vf arire rkcynvarq. ( 70% confidence )

Created by HonoreDB on 2018-02-05; known on 2020-01-01.

[Star Trek: Disco] Ybepn'f fbhy fheivirf jvguva gur argjbex. ( 65% confidence )

Created by HonoreDB on 2018-02-05; known on 2020-01-01.

[Star Trek: Disco] Ng yrnfg bar perjzrzore bs zveebe qvfpbirel vf erirnyrq gb or nyvir va bhe havirefr. ( 80% confidence )

Created by HonoreDB on 2018-02-05; known on 2020-01-01.

[Star Trek: Disco] Bhe havirefr'f Ybepn vf erirnyrq gb or nyvir. ( 40% confidence )

Created by HonoreDB on 2018-02-05; known on 2020-01-01.

Another smash ballot will be announced by the end of 2019. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2020-01-01.

Personal – I will deadlift 200lbs at least once in 2019 ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )