Unjudged Predictions
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feedly will be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 25% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Major personalities on predictionbook (gwern, JoshuaZ, etc) will migrate over to another prediction-based website by 2020 ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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League of Legends to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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World of Warcraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Poker to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Chess to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 45% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Soccer to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Football to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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U.S. equities will return 1.8% 2010-2020. —Smithers & Co. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Baseball to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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reddit to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Quora to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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LessWrong to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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LiveJournal to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Facebook to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Age of Empires II to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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'Ultra High Definition Television (4320p) is available in domestic homes ' by 2021 ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2021-01-01.
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Harvard to have more undergraduates in 2020 than 2015 ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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College Confidential to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 20% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Coursera to become more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Python to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Javascript to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 45% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Java to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Haskell to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Akasha Project less than 100,000 active users ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2021-01-01.
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We will be able to identify the genes (collectively) responsible for 10% of the variance in ADHD by 2020 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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Created by viissataa on 2018-02-26; known on 2021-01-01.
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Thiel Fellowship will still run in 2020 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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HeavenGames to last to (at least) 2020 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Halflife 3 will be VR-based (conditional on HL3 being released) ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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SENS Foundation to reach a budget of 10 million dollars a year by 2020 (https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/3fri9a/ask_aubrey_de_grey_anything/ctrjwxm ) ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-05; known on 2021-01-01.
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SNPs to explain at least 5% of the variability for autism will be identified by 2020 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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MIT Course 6 (EECS) to still be MIT's most popular major by 2020 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Computer Science to remain Harvard's most popular undergraduate major in 2020 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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vox to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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By 2021, iOS/iPad will be/have a full fledged development environment for app development. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2016-06-14; known on 2021-01-01.
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io9 to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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cracked.com to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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BuzzFeed to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/ to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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Federal government of Canada passes law mandating divulging passwords ( 64% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-20; known on 2021-01-01.
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Federal government of Canada passes law banning encryption use ( 54% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-20; known on 2021-01-01.
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61%+ unemployment, 96%+ water unsafe, over 75k homeless, over 50% of them children, <6 hours/day of electricity in gaza (at least 3 of the above) ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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aeon.co to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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nautil.us to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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“Some p2p cryptocurrency is going to become THE world reserve currency this decade” – Jacob Cannell ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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25I-NBOMe to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2021-01-01.
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Volume of physical books sold in 2020 to be greater than that in 2015 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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Blockchain-based social platform to come out by 2020, and become a Top 1000 site (https://medium.com/@ryanxcharles/fix-reddit-with-bitcoin-7da3f85fb9ba ) ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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Number of front-end developers to be higher in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.