Conditional on me feeling I have sufficient information to make a basic judgement, he had a fracture/partial break in his hand ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-23; known on 2015-05-29.

I will maintain my GPA above a 3.6 overall average this semester. ( 90% confidence )

Created by woodse on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-05-20.

In the next two minutes, a person will die. ( 100% confidence )

Created by joustthetwoofus on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-04.

He hears from her by midnight tonight ( 68% confidence )

Created by EagleEye on 2015-05-01; known on 2015-05-02.

I will have a date in the next two weeks ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by dmai9600@yahoo.com on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-05-02.

I will be over this by May 1st ( 80% confidence )

Created by dmai9600@yahoo.com on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-05-01.

Actual “Anki” google trend level in the period a year from now (May2014 – April 2015) would mostly surpass the current forecast for the next year : http://i59.tinypic.com/2uf4qvr.jpg ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Neznans on 2014-04-28; known on 2015-04-01.

Steam user http://steamcommunity.com/profiles/76561197973910513/ will be VAC banned for cheating by 2015 Feb 1 ( 95% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by assmaster on 2014-10-19; known on 2015-04-01.

I will find a job before March 15th 2015 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Ruthie on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-03-16.

HPMOR : the resurrection stone can bring back a sentient but not controllable ghost from dna tissue ( or simply human remains ) ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by claz on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-03-16.

HP MOR : The source of magic stores “souls” (brain states) long term and is able to simulate them ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by claz on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-03-16.

Unipäiväkirja huomenna ( 70% confidence )

Created by 19283123 on 2015-03-09; known on 2015-03-10.

Harry Potter is the Master of Death, in the sense of magically owning all three Deathly Hallows. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-03-07.

Gordon Brown has unambiguously brown eyes ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05.

If I repeat IGE, and other allergy tests I took previously at EMC, a week after finishing the Chinese medicine I got, the classification of my reaction to something won't change. I will still need to take antihistamine 1-2 times a day. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by 11kilobytes on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-02-13.

I will be alive on my 26th birthday. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-30.

I will figure out what being transgender means by my 26th birthday. ( 20% confidence )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-30.

Conditional on being able to find credible source, Anna Wise >= 26 years old wrt common parlance ( 54% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-22.

Most Senate Dems outperform RCP average by more than 1%. ( 75% confidence )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2014-10-20; known on 2015-01-16.

Ebola won't spread in the American continent in the upcoming years ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Caio on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-14.

Within 3 years, at least 3 manga English distributors will go out of business or stop publishing. ( 33% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by kiba on 2012-01-08; known on 2015-01-08.

href=“http://www.tcuirs.com/it/”>omega basilea</a>[/b] href=“http://www.tcuirs.com/it/”>replica omega orologi</a>[/b] omega orologi[/url][/b] Omega orologi[/url][/ ( 0% confidence )

Created by ethaneshaw on 2015-01-06; known on 2015-01-06.

I will not receive my college grades in the mail before I return from my vacation in 2015. ( 90% confidence )

Created by brightcloud on 2014-12-23; known on 2015-01-02.

PubMed's comment system will have some form of human moderation before 2015. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-10-24; known on 2015-01-01.

Exalted 3rd Edition will not be published before January 1st 2015. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by chalicier on 2014-09-06; known on 2015-01-01.

Homestuck will update by the end of this year. ( 78% confidence )

Created by wraith on 2014-05-28; known on 2015-01-01.

Apple is going to discontinue iPod classic this year ( 50% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2015-01-01.

Tyrion is one of the 3 Dragon's heads. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-05; known on 2015-01-01.

Jon Snow is one of the 3 dragon's head. ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-05; known on 2015-01-01.

HP MoR: ch45: The hint is about what is the important task McGonagall was called away from ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.

E.T. will win at least 1 tennis match by the end of 2014 ( 75% confidence )

Created by Michal on 2013-09-07; known on 2014-12-31.

Two Year Emperor: Suze has more legitimate reasons for keeping her plans secret than what she says in chapter 70. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Philip_W on 2014-11-12; known on 2014-12-12.

Harrison Ford will have more than 5 minutes of screentime in The Expendables 3 ( 70% confidence )

Created by Grognor on 2014-08-21; known on 2014-11-28.

Conditional on it being the next action and sent by the end of Saturday 1st November, Megan replies to my text by or on Sunday 9th November. ( 67% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-11-10.

The next GW2 storyline will involve recovering from the destruction of Lion's Arch and Scarlett's rampage ( 50% confidence )

Created by bibliophile221B on 2014-04-27; known on 2014-05-15.

No gothic, gothic metal, ebm, electronic stuff festivals in USA similar to M'era Luna or GWT in Germany are running. ( 90% confidence )

Created by influnza on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-05-01.

minecraft will have a new update ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jeredcaleb on 2014-02-02; known on 2014-02-28.

When he wrote The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver was aware of Overcoming Bias but was not aware of Less Wrong. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2013-01-07; known on 2014-01-14.

Eliezer Yudkowsky has never read a book written by Andrea Dworkin. ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by tedks on 2014-01-08; known on 2014-01-08.

E.T. will win at least 1 tennis match by the end of 2013 ( 15% confidence )

Created by Michal on 2013-09-07; known on 2013-12-31.

McDonald's McResource Line website will remove its advice to employees to sell unwanted Christmas presents within 30 days. ( 60% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-11-20; known on 2013-12-20.

Russia will have a military campaign against Chechen rebels to indicate a sign of strength & make a statement. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by WSykes on 2013-12-30; known on 2013-01-03.