Unjudged Predictions
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I'm in an online forum where a technical analysis chart person is predicting LTC litecoin will hit 175 by 4/26/18. ( 51% confidence )
Created by DanMotorcycleGuy on 2018-04-22; known on 2018-04-26.
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I have an iron deficiency ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Vulture on 2014-01-20; known on 2018-04-22.
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greater than 600,000BTC worth of payments occur from mobile devices during 2017, whether on bitcoin or other payment system ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-04-01.
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In all his bank accounts combined, my friend Keyan will have $1,000,000 in total by the time he turns 30. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Lissy on 2015-12-11; known on 2018-03-30.
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hui ( 70% confidence )
Created by bastak on 2018-03-29; known on 2018-03-30.
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I can trust my amore. ( 75% confidence )
Created by OperaPhantom on 2018-03-13; known on 2018-03-16.
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Effective assistance will not be granted in time or at all. ( 99% confidence )
Created by OperaPhantom on 2018-03-13; known on 2018-03-16.
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Serious (personal) failure within the next few days. ( 95% confidence )
Created by OperaPhantom on 2018-03-13; known on 2018-03-16.
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Tablet market will grow 5x in 5 years (424.9 million units by 2017) —NPD ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-09; known on 2018-03-01.
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“Russia to meet the New START Treaty central limits in accordance with the stipulated timeline of February 2018” ( 47% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-07; known on 2018-03-01.
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000000 takes longer than 3 hours to complete ( 50% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23.
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The Dallas Cowboys will win a Super Bowl by 2018 ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SalTnutZ1 on 2015-07-05; known on 2018-02-15.
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Umsatz für Fleischersatzprodukte in Deutschland für 2017 wird größer sein als der 2 Jahresdurchschnitt, i.e. der von 2015 und 2016 ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by MrBubu on 2017-05-10; known on 2018-01-31.
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The US will run a deficit for 2017 of over 300 billion, with a likely >300 billion deficit in following years. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-01-07.
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no reports using hashtag #NotInMyTbay after 6 months for at least one week. ( 65% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-30; known on 2018-01-05.
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I will not be able to sell on market referenced in claim 177878 ( 92% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-02.
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By 2017-12-31 Sun: I do a workout in which I measure my mass and in which I do five deadlift reps of [205kg or 2.25x my body mass, whichever is the greater] raw. ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-02.
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Construction & housing in the heart of “Grand Paris” project starts by 2017 ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-11; known on 2018-01-01.
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Total LessWrong Google Analytics Sessions for 2017 will be higher than for 2016 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01.
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By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: Squat ATG 5×5 @ 1.75x bodyweight (measured immediately before the first set). Yes chalk, any shoes, no belt, no straps. ( 55% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: conditional on there being any live-action, it will be in 4.0. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 is not a conventional Eva, and has already been seen in 1.0 or 2.0 ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be created from the wreckage of Eva 02 and Eva 03 and will be two separate units linked to one pilot ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be created from the wreckage of Eva 02 and Eva 03 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be Rei ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be Lilith ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will see combat but be quickly destroyed ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be destroyed or scrapped or reused before any combat ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will not be shown in 4.0 ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by a Magi ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Mana from Girlfriend of Steel ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 06 is Adam ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 05 was Tunniel ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 01 will be upgraded to/redesignated Eva 08 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will related to the capture of NERV and extraction of Shinji ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be Lilith (shrunken) and not Eva-01 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be used against NERV ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be piloted by Asuka ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: The MP Evas will appear in 3.0 or 4.0 ( 70% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is really working for a NERV branch ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group which is opposed to just SEELE's plans & has links to Gendo ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for SEELE & is the head of SEELE ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for SEELE ( 25% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is the daughter of Asuka & Shinji from an 'original' EoE-verse ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is a angel/human hybrid ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is an animal/human hybrid ( 4% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is a clone of Naoko Akagi ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is a straight metaphysically normal human and nothing else ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari marked for death by SEELE at some point ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.