NGE Rebuild: “Arael attacks the sequestered NERV personnel with a wide beam, providing for a mindfuckery exposition scene featuring the other adults finally.” ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: There will be live-action at some point in Rebuild. ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-04; known on 2018-01-01.

Fundamental Change to Debian Release Structure: No Longer Offers Both Stable & Testing Releases ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-20; known on 2018-01-01.

More and better quality medical research happens in 2016 vs. 2015 ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2018-01-01.

On Jan 1, 2017 there will be at most 3871377.25 bitcoin in addresses that have not been dormant for over a year ( 33% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-03; known on 2018-01-01.

Planet Nine will turn out to actually exist ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by artir on 2016-03-24; known on 2018-01-01.

Avogadro project fixes value of the Kilogram before Planck constant is set in 2017 ( 59% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-11; known on 2018-01-01.

24% or more of coral reefs in asia are gone relative to 2007 ( 68% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-01.

Commercially available hard disks utilize heat-assisted magnetic recording ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-13; known on 2018-01-01.

Over 30% of Canadians 2 payments or more behind on mortgage payments at any point in 2017 ( 65% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-13; known on 2018-01-01.

Bank of Canada increases overnight rate over 2.5% in 2017 ( 63% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-13; known on 2018-01-01.

Ampyx prototype AP3 deployed for testing ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14; known on 2018-01-01.

8 million accounts on ripple networks ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01.

Either Graphene EMI Shielding or one of the other 85 “key technologies” is successfully put on market by at least one Korean firm ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01.

More mergers & acquisitions in bitcoin in 2017 than any previous year ( 57% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-18; known on 2018-01-01.

William Bennett imprisoned in 2017 ( 40% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-21; known on 2018-01-01.

>=1.6 million human genomes sequenced ( 59% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-20; known on 2018-01-01.

Vaselgel makes it to market by 2017 ( 17% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-20; known on 2018-01-01.

Civ 6 will receive higher ratings on metacritic than Civ 5 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2018-01-01.

Lybrido passes largescale human trials with flying colours, no major side effects ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-21; known on 2018-01-01.

The DAO hack will result in a lawsuit (publicly known) by January 2018. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bitbatbot on 2016-06-19; known on 2018-01-01.

Andreessen Horowitz, August Capital still exists as a VC firms in 2018 both with greater or equal value on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_venture_capital_firms of 2016 (950M, 2500M) (or have merged with larger VC entity) ( 56% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-01-01.

throughout dec 2017, bitcoin officially banned in russia ( 53% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01; known on 2018-01-01.

FISA Section 702 renewed ( 53% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2018-01-01.

5 2013-londons worth of urban development gets created in 2017 ( 63% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2018-01-01.

bitcoin volatility goes very high, with wild % swings in 2017. at least 6 90% swings. ( 8% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2018-01-01.

Number of countries bombed by the US in 2017 is = 7 ( 33% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2018-01-01.

Number of countries bombed by the US in 2017 is < 7 ( 18% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2018-01-01.

Resolution 2: I will write the majority of a VisionofEarth.org article + Update my bio ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01.

Total LessWrong Google Analytics Pageviews for 2017 will be higher than for 2016 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01.

By 2017-12-31 Sun: I do a workout in which I measure my mass and in which I do five sets of five reps of ATG squats at [143kg or 1.5x my body mass, whichever is the greater] raw. ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-01.

By 2017-12-31 Sun: I do a workout in which I measure my mass and in which I do five sets of five reps of overhead press at [70kg or 0.85x my body mass, whichever is the greater] raw. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-08; known on 2018-01-01.

nasdaq composite <= 3800 at any point in 2017 ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-15; known on 2018-01-01.

i am still alive ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30; known on 2018-01-01.

By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 65.0kg (143.3lb). ( 54% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.

By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 62.5kg (137.79lb). ( 47% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.

By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 60.0kg (132.28lb). ( 31% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.

By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 55.0kg (121.25lb). ( 18% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.

By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: I have a bout ((chess)boxing, MMA, kickboxing, or otherwise) (amateur, white collar, pro, or otherwise). ( 35% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.

By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: 5×5 overhead press @ bodyweight (measured immediately before first set) ( 43% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.

By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: Deadlift 1×5 @ 3x bodyweight (measured immediately before the set). Yes chalk, any shoes, no belt, no straps. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.

By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: Squat ATG 5×5 @ 2.00x bodyweight (measured immediately before the first set). Yes chalk, any shoes, no belt, no straps. ( 36% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.

There will be a news story on Ethereum on https://www.1tv.ru before 2018 ( 60% confidence )

Created by leftblank on 2017-12-08; known on 2018-01-01.

P = NP problema lidz 2018. gada 1. janvarim netiks atrisinata. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by zaarcis on 2012-12-10; known on 2018-01-01.

First directly brain-controlled internet post will be announced within the next 5 years. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2018-01-01.

Section 702 renewed (or replaced with something that does roughly the same thing within 6 months) ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-28; known on 2017-12-31.

0 Equifax executives convicted/jailed ( 65% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2017-12-31.

10,000 CAD$ / bitcoin on non-localbitcoins exchange shown on bitcoinwatch (or equivalent if bitcoinwatch goes down) ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-12-31.

China overtakes EU (Whatever's left of it) in at least 2 of the 3 of: GDP, math PhDs/year, cheesecake produced / capita. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-29; known on 2017-12-31.