Unjudged Predictions
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One week from today, I will weight less than or equal to 169 lbs ( 80% confidence )
Created by helldalgo on 2016-10-17; known on 2016-10-24.
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Bharat will grow at least 8-8.5% in real GDP terms from 1 April 2015 to 31 March 2016(FY16). —NITI Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-03; known on 2016-10-20.
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Tico 1. Deliver on time 80% 2. Be well received 70% https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/mobvoi/ticwatch-2-the-most-interactive-smartwatch/description ( 60% confidence )
Created by Shekerev on 2016-08-06; known on 2016-10-16.
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I will pass my exams ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Shekerev on 2016-07-21; known on 2016-10-16.
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In 2 years I will conclude that bombing IS was net negative. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-25; known on 2016-09-25.
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I will pass comps. ( 85% confidence )
Created by spicedpiano on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-09-20.
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I will get a first in at least three-quarters of my modules ( 35% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2016-05-15; known on 2016-09-20.
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I'll get into an American University next year. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Hurzek on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-09-16.
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Promised food at the Latrice Royale opening event Fall '16 by SJE in Trayes Hall will not appear until one hour after doors open (8pm EST) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mmelewinsky on 2016-09-12; known on 2016-09-13.
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Somewhere in Air France IT, there will be a project or a study using Golang within 6 month after the Brown Bag Lunch of March 2016 by Anaethelion ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jean on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-08-27.
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In which university will you do your bachelor's? Harvard, MIT, or UPenn ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Hussain on 2015-08-02; known on 2016-08-16.
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I will acquire enough python knowledge to contribute to a GitHub project. ( 10% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-08-16.
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Higher tuition in 2015 causes stress in students in canada ( 99% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-08-01.
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Conditional on none of Cruz, Walker or Paul becoming the Republican nominee, Psimoe will still end up saying they will vote for the nominee. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-07-25.
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Conditional on neither Cruz nor Paul winning the Republican nomination, The2ndAmendment will when asked say they are supporting the Republican nominee for President. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-24; known on 2016-07-22.
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Acting will be correlated with my spouse's perception of a positive relationship. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-07-16.
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I will get into one of Harvard, MIT, or Princeton ( 15% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-14.
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In the beginning of 2016, it will be more difficult for a university to not provide civil servants/qualified workers than the beginning of 2015 in canada. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-07-01.
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I will submit my capstone project for accounting on the fourth Monday of June, 2016 ( 78% confidence )
Created by helldalgo on 2016-05-23; known on 2016-06-30.
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Engaged MonJune27 – 45% opens, 2% clicks ( 70% confidence )
Created by polyopticon on 2016-06-26; known on 2016-06-28.
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M:BG will have a playable alpha. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-19; known on 2016-06-16.
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If I'm still alive, I (xrisque) will still be single. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by xrisque on 2014-11-11; known on 2016-06-16.
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I will retire at the end of June. ( 90% confidence )
Created by bhh322 on 2015-11-28; known on 2016-06-15.
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80,000 Hours' blog will have a hackernews comment with >10% of the post's net upvotes that is critical of the volume of popups on the 80,000 Hours site. ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RyanCarey on 2016-06-07; known on 2016-06-09; judged unknown by RyanCarey on 2016-06-09.
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Skype translator will be a huge success ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by influnza on 2014-06-07; known on 2016-06-07.
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I will sleep with the P-girl this year ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-11-17; known on 2016-06-06.
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The “Bible of Shenanigans” will NOT be created by Justen Zhang and/or Kuba Stechly in a form that contains at least 50 high quality shenanigans by June 1 2016 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2016-06-02.
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I will have a super awesome computer before the release of Black Desert (in Europe). ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-06-01.
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I will get the GROW ( 85% confidence )
Created by spicedpiano on 2016-04-20; known on 2016-06-01.
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The average winning bid for the 2016 NYC Individual Accessible taxi medallion auction will be below $700,000. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-08-13; known on 2016-05-16.
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I will acquire enough javascript knowledge to contribute to a GitHub project. ( 35% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-04-30.
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I will complete Anki reviews every week until April. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-04-16.
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I will use predictionbook at least once a week. ( 32% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-04-16.
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I will learn enough perspective to improve my drawing. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-04-16.
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My dry eyes will be noticeably better in 6 months from my last appointment with Dr. Hennie where he told me to take the triglyceride form of fish oil. ( 70% confidence )
Created by bhh322 on 2015-11-28; known on 2016-04-01.
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Children born with symptoms enough to be diagnosed as ADHD will rise as result of a rise in its treatment with stimulant medications. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-15; known on 2016-03-27.
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https://encipher.it?DI8w thyroglossal duct cyst ( 90% confidence )
Created by eldorz on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-03-23.
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Created by eldorz on 2016-03-01; known on 2016-03-15.
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9502008321: Multifocal GBM ( 90% confidence )
Created by Dylan.Kurda on 2016-02-03; known on 2016-02-22.
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9771039943: ABC ( 80% confidence )
Created by Dylan.Kurda on 2016-02-03; known on 2016-02-22.
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U6* unemployment will be under 10% by this time next year. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2016-02-10.
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I will be accepted for an interview at that type foundry, after having written, just for my application, a font previewing app with the tools they use. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2016-01-09; known on 2016-01-30.
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Path cc ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Gstarr310 on 2016-01-21; known on 2016-01-21.
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I will get an 1800+ upon retaking the SAT. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-01-16.
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If I discover a convenient way to test it, my polygenic risk score for schizophrenia will be above the population average (based on rare variant enrichment). ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
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There will be a greater than 97.5% concordance btwn my WGS data and 23&me SNP calls. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
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More than 13% of the loss of function genes in my WGS data will be related to chemosensation. ( 66% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
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I will have >100 loss of function variants in my WGS data. (https://www.sciencemag.org/content/335/6070/823) ( 55% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
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I will enjoy the new Star Wars movie as much as the original. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bhh322 on 2015-11-28; known on 2016-01-06.
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Gathering/absorbing Hawking radiation and generating a net surplus of useful energy (not counting what you feed into the black hole) would violate the Second Law of Thermodynamics. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-08-18; known on 2016-01-01.