HP MoR: the original Quirrel killed his parents ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: ch45: The hint is about what happened to the phoenix Fawkes ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: ch45: The hint is about why the Dementors are out to get Quirrel ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01.

HP MoR: ch45: The hint is about why Harry can't hear Dementors ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01.

Before or coinciding with the release of the Apple Watch, Apple will [announce or release an new iPod touch model (however minor the differences)] or [announce the end of the iPod touch line or brand]. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by quicklystarfish on 2015-02-16; known on 2016-01-01.

General consensus that North Korea is behind the Sony hack attack by January 1, 2016 ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-20; known on 2016-01-01.

Univision will survive as a free over the air station until 2016 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-10; known on 2016-01-01.

There will be a major blizzard in Denver in either October or November 2015 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-09-28; known on 2016-01-01.

I think that I will be working at the VA by the end of next month ( 60% confidence )

Created by DarthSophius on 2015-11-04; known on 2016-01-01.

Benjamin Netanyahu's proposed legislation to implement mandatory minimum sentences for stone throwers will still be there two months after the Knife Intifada has ceased. ( 60% confidence )

Created by mojo.rhythm on 2015-10-23; known on 2016-01-01.

UA would not join russian custom union in next two years ( 70% confidence )

Created by vasaka on 2014-01-20; known on 2016-01-01.

At least one Dutch citizen will be penalized for downloading/spreading copyrighted material using a P2P system on a device located in the Netherlands before the end of 2015. A case started before 2016, but finished in the year 2016 counts as well. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by akrasib on 2015-10-22; known on 2016-01-01.

“The International Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report will conclude it is likely, or more than likely, that human-caused global warming has increased hurricane intensity in the 1995-2005 time period.” ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2015-12-31.

I will have reached over a million dollars by year end. ( 65% confidence )

Created by aschberg on 2015-06-30; known on 2015-12-31.

I will quit my day job this year. ( 55% confidence )

Created by MattG on 2015-01-30; known on 2015-12-31.

Gift from N is a kitchen appliance. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2015-12-28.

Gift from S is a fiction book. ( 24% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2015-12-28.

Gift from S is a non-fiction book. ( 12% confidence )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2015-12-28.

Gift from S is a sharp implement. ( 25% confidence )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2015-12-28.

I think I will get all As on my courses this semester ( 90% confidence )

Created by Majikkani_Hand on 2015-11-14; known on 2015-12-20.

I think I will get all As or A-s on my courses this semester. ( 95% confidence )

Created by Majikkani_Hand on 2015-11-14; known on 2015-12-20.

Justen Zhang will change major at least once by December 2015 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-12-16.

Score at least 150 on a PLSAT ( 90% confidence )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-12-16.

I think I will get an A in geosci ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by bruh on 2015-11-09; known on 2015-12-16.

My friend will reconnect and make plans with a love interest. ( 62% confidence )

Created by Neon on 2015-11-23; known on 2015-12-01.

Vamos ter uma v0 do dash até começo de dezembro ( 60% confidence )

Created by juliomarcos on 2015-08-05; known on 2015-12-01.

Toronto's condo market will tank in 2015. ( 25% confidence )

Created by realityriot on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-11-16.

Coin landing on eads ( 50% confidence )

Created by philvier on 2015-11-10; known on 2015-11-10.

That in 11 hours it will be 14:20 EST. ( 100% confidence )

Created by pjg5172 on 2015-11-09; known on 2015-11-09.

Dave Strider (Alpha timeline, from Beta universe) will die a permanent death by the conclusion of Homestuck ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ChairmanMeow on 2013-10-31; known on 2015-10-31.

SR: The FBI/government will gain control in any way of DPR's ~฿600,000 within 2 years. ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-04; known on 2015-10-04.

Staock market will finish down for the year ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jaaksbus on 2015-10-02; known on 2015-10-04.

The fanfiction “Hogwarts School of Prayer and Miracles” will be revealed as satire/parody within one year. ( 90% confidence )

Created by sigmaleph on 2014-09-23; known on 2015-09-23.

Dollar will go to 66c ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Christine on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-09-16.

The winner of the 2015 ImageNet challenge will have a error rate between 2-3%. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by FractalHeretic on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-09-15.

Obamacare will survive, but might get changed around the edges by court challenges. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by stephen on 2015-09-11; known on 2015-09-11.

This prediction won't have a confidence rate between any interval of length 10 I predict in this prediction within 15 days. Let's say for example 85-95 ( 100% confidence )

Created by damaru on 2015-08-15; known on 2015-08-30.

Raccoons will show up between 8/20/2015 and 8/27/2015 and destroy more of my water lilies. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ialdabaoth on 2015-08-21; known on 2015-08-28.

Hover and Anna will argue less often than average family in the similar conditions ( 75% confidence )

Created by varman on 2014-08-09; known on 2015-08-09.

Dodger will not move out f GHTT ( 80% confidence )

Created by brian1314 on 2015-07-29; known on 2015-08-07.

I'll be programming for Android OS within a year ( 60% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2015-08-03.

Escribiré al menos dos historias cortas ( 60% confidence )

Created by acradis on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-08-01.

Veré 6 películas en una semana ( 80% confidence )

Created by acradis on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-08-01.

Use of prediction tracking software will increase prediction accuracy over a 9 month period ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by msevrens on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-07-28.

I will be going out with a girl next year. ( 8% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2015-07-02.

Rondo will end up with more career playoff triple doubles than Larry Bird (he'll pass Bird by 2015) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2015-07-01.

Conditional on me feeling I have sufficient information to make a basic judgement, he had a fracture/partial break in his hand ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-23; known on 2015-05-29.

Conditional on me feeling I have sufficient information to make a basic judgement, he had a complete break in his hand ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-23; known on 2015-05-29.

I will maintain my GPA above a 3.6 overall average this semester. ( 90% confidence )

Created by woodse on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-05-20.

In the next two minutes, a person will die. ( 100% confidence )

Created by joustthetwoofus on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-04.