QRVO loses share on the iPhone ( 31% confidence )

Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2017-06-01.

Swift will be a more popular choice than Rust for writing REST APIs ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by workbean on 2016-01-01; known on 2017-06-01.

I'll finish reading a book by the end of the month. ( 75% confidence )

Created by eusmagnus7 on 2017-05-19; known on 2017-06-01.

If North Korea has another underground nuclear explosion, it will result in an earthquake in the nearby Pacific rim. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Tommy on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-05-01.

Within 3 years one of the Ariel Castro victims will be on Dancing With The Stars – Joan Rivers ( 3% confidence )

Created by nsavir on 2014-04-24; known on 2017-04-23.

The Great Barrier Reef will be 90 % bleached by 2025. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by nortil on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-04-10.

Tom Brady only plays for 2 more years ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by clutetc on 2017-04-07; known on 2017-04-07.

Tablet market continues to decline for at least 2 of the next 4 fiscal quarters. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2017-03-25.

fradi will win the derby ( 75% confidence )

Created by tieics on 2017-03-04; known on 2017-03-04.

CFIB comes out against mill rate increase in regina budget ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-02-28.

Higher pressure on unions due to higher pressure on professors in canada (in 2015.) ( 68% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2017-01-08.

increased tuition in canada causes increased stress on professors (contributing cause) (2015) ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2017-01-02.

Cause Prioritization Wiki to have 500 pageviews per day by end of 2016 ( 25% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-09-02; known on 2017-01-01.

None of the hackathon (Consensus 2016) winners include a threat model as part of their entry. ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-25; known on 2017-01-01.

Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law in 5-3 split. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01.

Starcraft 2: Heart of the Swarm to be on sale for under $20 on any day during 2016 ( 55% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01.

Age of Empires II HD: The African Kingdoms will be on sale for under $3 on any day during 2016 ( 55% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01.

Rand Paul to do IAmA by 2016 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2017-01-01.

Real ID act goes into phase iv, DHS REALID system forces all states to participate or bans citizens of them from international travel ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01.

Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01.

2015-2016 El Nino to be stronger than 1997-1998 El Nino ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2017-01-01.

At some point next year I will publicly declare myself to be a furry. ( 20% confidence )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-11; known on 2017-01-01.

Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law in 6-2 split. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01.

At least one Dutch citizen will be penalized for downloading/spreading copyrighted material using a P2P system using a device located in the Netherlands before the end of 2016. A case started before 2017, but finished in the year 2017 counts as well. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by akrasib on 2015-10-22; known on 2017-01-01.

Difference in average math score on SAT for males and females in 2016 will be less or equal than 10 points. Background: http://freakonomics.com/podcast/gender-barriers/ ( 40% confidence )

Created by rationalnoodles on 2016-07-23; known on 2017-01-01.

Jonathan Ives will be viewed as a flop as iphone, ipad head (as judged by hindsight in 2016) ( 65% confidence )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-06; known on 2016-12-31.

Government of Nova Scotia releases Accessibility legislation that meets CCLA's approval ( 44% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-05; known on 2016-12-31.

Graphnano's bat wont be a bluff ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by artir on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-12-31.

RBI estimates Bharat's current account deficit at 1.5% in FY16. ( 95% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-06; known on 2016-12-31.

The SNIFF trial of nasal insulin for AD will NOT show a statistically significant improvement in CSF Abeta or CSF Abeta/tau ratio over time (i.e., these will NOT be reported as significant by the study investigators). ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2015-11-26; known on 2016-12-31.

The SNIFF trial of nasal insulin will show a statistically significant improvement in ADAS-Cog scores OR memory composite OR ADCS-ADL (i.e., this will be reported by the study investigators). ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2015-11-26; known on 2016-12-31.

Rossiya's real GDP growth for 2016 will be at least 0.7% for full year. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12; known on 2016-12-31.

Contingent on his winning the nomination, Rand Paul will make double digit gains over John McCain among minority voters. ( 60% confidence )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-10-18; known on 2016-12-31.

There'll be a big summer shark scare story within the next 4 years ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-06; known on 2016-12-31.

PewDiePie to still be the #1 YouTube celebrity by the end of 2016 ( 45% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2016-12-31.

If Obama wins, then before end of his term, Fox News will have one of the top 3 liberal news shows. ( 65% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-01; known on 2016-12-31.

There'll be less gridlock in Obama's second term vs. the first term (measured by total number of filibusters) ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-12-31.

Romney will publicly embrace Romneycare before end of Obama term ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-12-31.

OPEC basket price on a monthly basis will bottom out at $25 for 2016. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-12; known on 2016-12-29.

Phone battery strength will increase with at least 100% in the next coming 5 years ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by jplattel on 2011-12-28; known on 2016-12-28.

Bharat's National Highways to reach 150 000km in length from 100 000km today. ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-19; known on 2016-12-25.

Bharat will produce 2.4—2.5 million tonne aluminium in 2015-16 and be ranked 3rd or 4th in the world from 2.1 million in 2014. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known on 2016-12-25.

Bharat will be ranked 9th(from 11th) in the world for solar photovoltaic total capacity in 2015. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2016-12-25.

Rob will win his family's Festivus FEAT OF STRENGTH this year ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by asyks on 2016-12-22; known on 2016-12-25.

Bharat will be the world's second largest producer and consumer of steel in 2016(from 4th in 2014).Production 140 MT and consumption 104MT. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-12-25.

I will lack living funds for at least one month next year. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-12-16.

I will eat a sandwich for lunch tomorrow ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by epm5108@psu.edu on 2016-11-29; known on 2016-11-29.

By five years from now, (independent) transcriptome data from human post-mortem samples will confirm the finding that the expression of DRD2 is significantly upregulated in the striatum during development (from birth to >= day 100, at alpha 0.05), conting ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Porejide on 2011-11-24; known on 2016-11-24.

New Horizons mission will transmit strong evidence of subsurface ocean on Pluto. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2016-11-12.