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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoking Lucius's debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser

Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.

  • gwern estimated 30% on 2012-03-23
  • gwern said “see http://lesswrong.com/lw/axe/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/63ib” on 2012-03-23
  • Anubhav estimated 40% on 2012-03-23
  • Anubhav estimated 20% and said “Ach, no, forgot I’d updated downward.” on 2012-03-23
  • HonoreDB estimated 60% on 2012-03-23
  • beo_shaffer estimated 20% on 2012-03-23
  • gryffinp estimated 25% on 2012-03-23
  • Alsadius estimated 50% and said “By far the most plausible. ” on 2012-03-23
  • Rejoyce estimated 20% and said “Again, they would have caught this a long time back, but in case they just overlooked it on accident…” on 2012-03-23
  • quicklystarfish estimated 5% on 2012-03-23
  • ArisKatsaris estimated 85% and said “Only solution sufficiently foreshadowed, and which doesn’t require more than 3 different things to happen just right.” on 2012-03-23
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 25% on 2012-03-23
  • HonoreDB said “Before I saw this idea, I had already gotten the strong impression that the intended solution involved Lucius Malfoy, the Wizengamot, and the laws of magical Britain. If EY didn’t want to use it, I think he would have ruled it out in 79.” on 2012-03-23
  • Isaac estimated 60% on 2012-03-23
  • Grognor estimated 24% and said “harry/eliezer is far more creative than me; could be any number of things that aren’t this particular solution” on 2012-03-23
  • Porejide estimated 35% on 2012-03-24
  • JoshuaZ estimated 30% on 2012-03-25
  • roshni estimated 20% on 2012-03-26
  • RobertLumley estimated 55% on 2012-03-26
  • slackson estimated 40% on 2012-03-26
  • lavalamp estimated 30% and said “I think Harry already blew his chance at negotiation.” on 2012-03-26
  • gimpf estimated 10% on 2012-03-27
  • Unnamed estimated 60% and said “Calling in debts for killing Voldemort is the only option I’ve seen that really makes sense, and this is the most plausible version of it.” on 2012-03-27
  • Grognor   judged this prediction right on 2012-03-28.
  • gwern changed their prediction from “HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoking Lucius's debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser” on 2012-04-09