[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $200 ( 95% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

>1 million american refugees have entered canadian borders ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2022-01-01.

[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $500 ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

I publish >=1 paper on (A | Bio)rXiv in 2021. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

I will be unemployed during the entirety of 2021 ( 75% confidence )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2022-01-01.

New Glenn rocket to fly putting a payload into orbit by end of 2021. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01.

Israel and Egypt at war by 2022 ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-16; known on 2022-01-01.

I will remain below 67kg at end 2021. Follow on from prediction that I will be under 67kg by end February 2021. Currently 68.6kg. ( 65% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2021-01-05; known on 2022-01-01.

I will meditate at least 180 hours total in 2021. ( 70% confidence )

Created by korakos on 2020-11-29; known on 2022-01-01.

MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-03; known on 2022-01-01.

Proof that P≠NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

First SLS to fly by end of 2021. ( 31% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01.

Kobe Bryant will own a professional sports team outside the US within the next 12 years (till 2024) ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2022-01-01.

Another baby born from an embryo publicly declared to have been modified with CRISPR (or another gene editing complex). ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

SpaceX starship has a successful test launch in which it lands without major issues (defined as causing enough damage to the ship that it can’t be reused) in 2021. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

ULA's Vulcan rocket to fly by end of 2021. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-12-18; known on 2022-01-01.

[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $100k ( 2% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

The GAO will not uphold Blue Origin's protest of the HLS bid. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-27; known on 2022-01-01.

COVID – A single strain that circumvents immunity from earlier infections causes more than 10M infections globally by end of 2021. ( 53% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2022-01-01.

Eric Weinstein said “I'm going to put out Geometric Unity in written form” (in 2021, new years resolution) here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRmbQP6ho4c&ab_channel=DrBrianKeating. I say it will not happen. ( 75% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2021-01-05; known on 2022-01-01.

[I will go to Italy] Before December 31 ( 80% confidence )

Created by vlad.proex on 2021-05-15; known on 2022-01-01.

Will Boston's snowfall in 2020-2021 be below average? ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-12-01; known on 2022-01-01.

Number of people in the world living in extreme global poverty is below 743,336,050 (as measured by https://worldpoverty.io/map) on January 1st, 2022. ( 95% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

Nawa will publish data justifying their press release's claims of record-high battery energy density in 2021. ( 30% confidence )

Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-27; known on 2022-01-01.

New Glenn to fly at least once in 2021 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01; known on 2022-01-01.

At the end of the year, I will consider the UFO talk to have been no significant evidence for the existence of aliens ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by sty.silver on 2021-05-23; known on 2022-01-01.

North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19; known on 2022-01-01.

OoTS: MitD is the Snarl. ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-06-30; known on 2022-01-01.

Lebron James will average a triple double in an NBA season during his career ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2022-01-01.

Will NYC's snowfall in 2020-2021 be below average? ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-12-01; known on 2022-01-01.

Between now and 2022, a religion, subsect, or religious movement will be founded and grow to over 10,000 followers that has explicit ties to Judaism/Christianity/Islam, but rejects the omnipotence of God. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2011-12-03; known on 2022-01-01.

I will complete studying “A first course in general relativity” in 2021. ( 70% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2021-01-05; known on 2022-01-01.

Most of the gene sites accounting for the additive heritability of g (0.6) will be identified by 2021. — Steve Hsu ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Pablo Stafforini on 2012-10-13; known on 2022-01-01.

Microsoft buys Cloudflare ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-24; known on 2022-01-01.

[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $10k. ( 80% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $2k ( 25% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $5k ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

One of the cyberwarfare viruses (Stuxnet, Flame, ??) will spill out and hit civilian US computers in a widespread way before 2022. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-30; known on 2022-01-01.

Airplanes are becoming less safe in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's in the U.S. ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-07-06; known on 2022-01-01.

'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' —Steven Pinker ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-03; known on 2022-01-01.

Utah public lands lawsuit reaches US Supreme Court ( 50% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-04; known on 2022-01-01.

There won't be a significant automobile virus sighting ( 13% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known on 2022-01-01.

First Tesla Cybertruck delivered to customer in 2021. ( 45% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

Language model released that uses 10x the # of parameters used by by GPT-3 in 2021. ( 40% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

Rupert Murdoch will still lead Fox News after his 90th birthday ( 49% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2022-01-01.

Waymo self-driving car service open to the public in a city outside of Arizona in 2021. ( 20% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

Proof that P=NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

Another company besides Waymo's self-driving car service open to the public (anywhere) in 2021. ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

There will NOT be any hyperinflation (>10% CBI compared to the previous year) in the USA in 2021 ( 95% confidence )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-05-10; known on 2022-01-01.

US bicycle mode share will increase in the 2020 Census over 2010 ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-05-11; known on 2022-01-01.