I will publically convert to Roman Catholicism before 2025. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-07; known on 2025-01-02.

I will be a teetotaler for the entire period between now and 2025-01-01 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by btrettel on 2015-07-12; known on 2025-01-02.

SPR below 341M by end of 2024 ( 90% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-07-02; known on 2025-01-10.

Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. ( 17% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Jennifer on 2009-10-19; known on 2025-01-12.

Screens will not be the primary form of interface with mobile devices by 2025 ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-24; known on 2025-01-16.

The helical engine works ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by wizzwizz4 on 2019-10-15; known on 2025-01-16.

Consensus will be that electron neutrinos have imaginary mass 2025. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-27; known on 2025-01-16.

Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-01-16.

There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2025 ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2025-01-16.

[Personal] I will get a cat (more likely a pair of buddies) before 2025. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2025-01-19.

Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, *by 2025*. ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2025-01-19.

The Biden administration officially claims that China has provided military assistance to Russia for its invasion in Ukraine ( 30% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-14; known on 2025-01-20.

The U.S. will go to war (>20,000 new troop deployment) before the end of Biden/Harris' first term. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JohnGreer on 2021-01-22; known on 2025-01-20.

Kushner to remain in the White House for the entire duration of Trump's presidency ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-12; known on 2025-01-20.

Independent of the next elected president of the United States, there will not exist a wall along the 1,954 mile border shared with Mexico within 8 years of inauguration. ( 74% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-13; known on 2025-01-20.

Trump becoming President in 2025. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-06; known on 2025-01-22.

Fraction of U.S GDP devoted to computer and electronics hardware will be higher than 5%(from 1.5% now) by 2025 according to BEA data ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-09-17; known on 2025-01-24.

The British Labour Party will not win the next general election. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-27; known on 2025-01-25.

It will be revealed that there is a massive pedophile ring is operating within the United States government ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19; known on 2025-01-28.

A bad thing happens, and President Trump and the intelligence community publicly disagree about whether it was caused by terrorists. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by HonoreDB on 2017-01-30; known on 2025-01-30.

[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] <.910 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-31.

[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] < .608 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-31.

[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] <.650 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-31.

The Biden administration officially claims that Russia has attempted to interfere in the 2024 US presidential election ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-30; known on 2025-01-31.

[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] <.773 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-31.

[Biden Executive Order Frequency in First Term (orders/week)] <.973 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-31.

The debt ceiling suspension is extended beyond 2025 ( 35% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-06-10; known on 2025-02-01.

Biden loses the 2024 presidential election ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-15; known on 2025-02-01.

World population to drop for at least one of the next 10 years. (2015,2016, 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024). ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known on 2025-02-02.

Russia uses a tactical nuclear warhead in the Ukraine war between Nov 2023 – Feb 2025. ( 62% confidence )

Created by Milani on 2023-09-29; known on 2025-02-15.

joe biden dies in presidency ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-26; known on 2025-02-26.

The IUCN will report >=9000 critically endangered species as of march 1 2025 (currently ~6800) ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by finback on 2020-08-21; known on 2025-03-01.

The labor force participation rate will increase above 66% at least once while Trump is on office ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by regex on 2017-03-12; known on 2025-03-12.

Next US recession to be 66% or less than the drop in GDP of the great recession, to take place no earlier than 2018. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by nazgul76 on 2015-03-18; known on 2025-03-18.

Q3 2023 recession by NBER ( 95% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-23; known on 2025-04-01.

Artificial intelligence radically disrupts the global economy within 2 years ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by sjy on 2023-03-28; known on 2025-04-01.

AI x-risk is supported by right-wing US political actors, conditional on it becoming a sufficiently mainstream political issue and ignoring roughly bipartisan consensus ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-10; known on 2025-04-10.

Despite all the China and North Korea fears, Pakistan and India will cause WW3 ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jase9r on 2011-04-24; known on 2025-04-24.

I will never have kids ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mishell103 on 2015-04-25; known on 2025-04-25.

E. Yudkowsky will coauthor a book with gwern. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.

gwern branwen will change his personal pronouns from he/him to they/them. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-27; known on 2025-04-28.

Gwern is Jim Babcock. ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.

The identity of gwern branwen will be revealed to the public by 2025. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-27; known on 2025-04-29.

Gwern is still living with his relatives. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-28; known on 2025-04-29.

I will reach 200,000 lifetime book sales by May 2025 (currently 104k) ( 50% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2023-04-26; known on 2025-05-01.

Sam will complete his PhD. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2025-05-04.

e5457decad6d1248430258b145bd1418cf6229b9e545e0282ab9a192d3b5491e - ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-21; known on 2025-05-08.

lawsuits aimed at bankrupting LGBT organizations. this is currently happening in the UK, and i anticipate it will be exported to the US as a strategy, in the next 3 years. ( 78% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2025-05-08.

262c5d5c74f33d44712251134f833ccad5ebaa9327aa759951fd3073063ab5d4 - ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-21; known on 2025-05-08.

>= 10% of California IT workers unionized by 2025 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by entropy on 2015-05-10; known on 2025-05-10.