The Belgian federal government formation takes at least three months from the date of the election ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-09-11.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jun-Jul-Aug 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-09-14.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jun-Jul-Aug 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-09-14.

[Commodities] As of September 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of August 2019 ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-09-14.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jun-Jul-Aug 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-09-14.

Test driven design has started to gain traction in building design ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2014-09-16; known on 2019-09-16.

[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] Iran to produce at least 2.6 MMbpd ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-09-16.

[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] OECD inventory to exceed 2900 MMb ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-09-16.

[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] OPEC to produce at least 31 MMbpd ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-09-16.

[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] UK to produce at least 1.3 MMbpd ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-09-16.

[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] Venezuela to produce at least 1.1 MMbpd ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-09-16.

[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] Nigeria to produce at least 1.6 MMbpd ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-09-16.

[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for August 2019 to exceed 110 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 19 days ago; known on 2019-09-18.

[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-19.

[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-19.

[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-19.

A new ministry will be created in the Russian government. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-09-22; known on 2019-09-22.

Boris Johnson to become Prime Minister by the next Conservative Party conference ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-09-29.

[US politics] Andrew Yang to participate in the third Democratic primary debate ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 19 days ago; known on 2019-09-30.

Estonia to be elected to the UN Security Council for the 2020-2021 period. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-09-30.

[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 135 ( 90% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01.

[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 165 ( 70% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01.

[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 180 ( 60% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01.

[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 150 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01.

[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 200 ( 5% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01.

[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 195 ( 50% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01.

[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] between 26,000 and 30,000 ( 93% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01.

[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] over 30,000 ( 95% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01.

[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] between 20,000 and 26,000 ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01.

[Politics] Singapore to hold general election by 3Q19 EOQ ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-01.

[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 3Q19 EOQ ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-01.

[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through September EOM ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-10-01.

[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] under 20,000 ( 80% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01.

Kim Jong Un to visit Seoul by 2019-10-01 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 21 days ago; known on 2019-10-01.

[Commodities] Palladium price at end of September 2019 to be lower than 1510 USD per troy ounce ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01.

[Baseball] The New York Mets will make the playoffs in 2019 ( 60% confidence )

Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2019-10-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in September for which data are published ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-10-01.

China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q3 EOQ ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-10-01.

Games Workers Unite will be generally considered a failure on October 1st 2019 ( 80% confidence )

Created by enolan on 2018-03-23; known on 2019-10-01.

Sandia 10MW CO2 turbine tests success ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14; known on 2019-10-01.

The Guardian newspaper's obsession with sex robots will continue for the next two years at least. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2019-10-03.

(Rick&Morty): Orgu vf gur pybar ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-10-04; known on 2019-10-04.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for August 2019 to exceed 50% ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-10-05.

[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] under $40 ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07.