Open Phil makes a grant on wild animal suffering within five years. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-07; known on 2021-09-07.

A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 30% confidence; 20 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10.

Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter. ( 22% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2021-09-14.

[stocks] Beyond meat upp 20% inom 60 månader ( 65% confidence )

Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15.

[stocks] EPR upp 40% inom 1 år ( 70% confidence )

Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15.

[stocks] norwegian cruis upp 40% inom ett år ( 60% confidence )

Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15.

[stocks] Disney up ca 10% inom 1 år ( 70% confidence )

Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15.

[stocks] Boing upp minst 30% inom 1 år ( 70% confidence )

Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15.

In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted). ( 42% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2011-09-20; known on 2021-09-16.

TBPL takes over NOIC small business development centre, writes them off as a partner. ( 53% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-21; known on 2021-09-21.

Leah and the FSF will make amends, LibreBoot, including Leah will become GNU Libreboot again ( 11% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-21; known on 2021-09-21.

I will end up at least starting an academic postgraduate degree (excludes things like a PGCE, or medical conversion course) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-22; known on 2021-09-22.

https://appfairness.org or a similar campaign gets Apple to either lower their fee or pull their own apps from the store ( 60% confidence )

Created by grin on 2020-09-24; known on 2021-09-24.

Professor Trevor Gaunt will complete 80% of the work for the Open Philanthropy Project Geomagnetics Research grant by 2019-10-01 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-10-01.

The WildAid campaign will contribute to a noticeable decline in the growth of Chinese meat consumption by 2019-10-01 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-10-01.

SETI@Home gets compromised by state-sponsored actor as means of getting access to its users computers ( 86% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09; known on 2021-10-07.

in december 2021, I'll be above 1150 since 2 consecutive months in my elo chess rating ( 80% confidence )

Created by Amaru 23 days ago; known on 2021-10-16.

SEC filings from Tesla motors still lists Lucid Motors/Atieva/whatever they change their name to as a competitor ( 43% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-20; known on 2021-10-20.

Lucid Motors/Atieva/whatever they change their name to in some way indicates Tesla motors is still a competitor ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-20; known on 2021-10-20.

econstudentlog.wordpress.com or its successor will cease to be updated ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-23; known on 2021-10-23.

bitcoin is no longer around, but zcash is ( 12% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-29; known on 2021-10-28.

Dune movie is released in October ( 70% confidence )

Created by qznc 15 days ago; known on 2021-11-01.

Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by ren on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-11-01.

Having survived CoViD-19 makes you immune for at least a year ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2020-04-18; known on 2021-11-03.

Jérémie Zimmermann gets caught up in some kind of sex scandal (a la Julian Assange/Jacob Appelbaum) and is forced to withdraw from public life ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08; known on 2021-11-08.

A vaccine will be out and at least 50M people will be vaccinated by COVID’s second birthday party (November 17th 2021) ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Liging on 2020-11-15; known on 2021-11-17.

USA Goaltimate Mixed Nationals will happen in November 2021 ( 70% confidence )

Created by Liface 14 days ago; known on 2021-11-30.

Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. ( 63% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by penten on 2016-12-01; known on 2021-12-01.

World share in science papers for the United States fell from 33% in 2003 to 27.8% in 2012.By 2021 it will be under 22.6%. — Web of Science, Thomson Reuters ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-10.

Bharat had 21,269 Web of science papers in 2003 to 45,639 in 2012.Bharat's world share will increase from 3.6% to a lower bound of 4.7%, 66,700 science papers by 2021. ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-10.

World currences will become truly “credit-based” by 2021. Smartcards with biometric IDs will be the forefront of a new era in currency marketing. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2021-12-16.

Brasil’s research papers in Web of Science increased in 2003 to 2012 from 1.7% to 2.7%. It's world share will be at least 3.7% by 2021. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-16.

By 2021, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped. ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by coyotespike on 2016-01-07; known on 2021-12-16.

Bharat will be ranked No3 in the world for science by 2022(ranked by Citable documents, Scopus DB). ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30; known on 2021-12-16.

Skip will run a goaltimate league in the San Francisco Bay Area in Fall 2021 ( 60% confidence )

Created by Liface 14 days ago; known on 2021-12-21.

In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-24; known on 2021-12-24.

Avatar 2 is released in December 2021 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-12-25.

Bharat will be ranked 4th in the world by 2021 for zinc production. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2021-12-25.

Bharat will meet or exceed the Copenhagen pledge to reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 20–25% in 2020 compared to 2005 levels. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-04; known on 2021-12-25.

1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use ( 85% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25.

1 person helicopter drones in commercial use ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25.

Bharat will be ranked 7th in 2021, up from 13th in 2014 in the Nature Index.(Qualitative Science ranking) ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-10; known on 2021-12-25.

EU's world share in science papers declined from 38.5% in 2003 to 35.5% in 2012, and by 2021 will be under 32.5%. — Web of Science, Thomson Reuters ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-25.

The world share for Zhongguo in science papers has increased from 5.6% in 2003 to 14% in 2012, and will reach at least 22.4% in 2021. This will be higher than the US percentage. — Web of Science, Thomson Reuters ( 100% confidence )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-25.

There will not be a pandemic by Christmas 2021 (in at least half of all countries on a political map, according to their governments) ( 45% confidence )

Created by wizzwizz4 5 days ago; known on 2021-12-27.

In 10 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2021-12-28.

Diablo IV is released in 2021 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-12-31.

GPT-3 or comparably advanced AI will be used to generate in-game AI behavior, gameplay logic, and/or story/plot content in a AAA game. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2021-12-31.

1-5-10-15 income tax passes in the US ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-17; known on 2021-12-31.