No WeWork IPO in 2019 ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by batemancapital 30 days ago; known on 2019-12-31.

In 2019, I’ll be able to get a pizza delivered to my house by a robot. ( 40% confidence; 14 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2019-12-31.

SPY return positive in year 2019 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by objclone on 2019-06-20; known on 2019-12-31.

Fed cut rate at least 50bps by end of 2019 ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by objclone on 2019-06-18; known on 2019-12-31.

$AMZN 2019 end of year price >= $2100 ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by objclone on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-12-31.

The Brexit Party to win more than 10 seats in a 2019 general election ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-04-22; known on 2019-12-31.

The Independent Group (TIG), or its successor party, to win more than 10 seats in a 2019 general election ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-08; known on 2019-12-31.

BTC will end 2019 higher than it started (priced in USD). ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by bshih on 2019-02-27; known on 2019-12-31.

China will increase their cap on solar production in 2019 to at least 20 GW before the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2019-01-26; known on 2019-12-31.

Pirate Bay will still exist in its name by 2020 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2019-12-31.

Satoshi Nakamoto will have at one point been the world's richest person by 11:59 pm, December 31st, 2019. ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by dchristie on 2018-01-12; known on 2019-12-31.

Joaquín Guzmán Loera (El Chapo) will escape from prison again before 2020 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by bobpage on 2016-01-09; known on 2020-01-01.

I will move before 2020 ( 20% confidence )

Created by bobpage on 2019-01-03; known on 2020-01-01.

Conditional on using computers by the end of the 2019, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do ( 85% confidence )

Created by bobpage on 2017-04-12; known on 2020-01-01.

A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 79% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01.

zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2020 ( 19% confidence )

Created by bobpage on 2016-10-06; known on 2020-01-01.

By the year 2020, the band Paradise Fears will consistently receive over 1 million views on every video they upload. ( 70% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2020-01-01.

By 2020, there will have been at least 5 assassinations that were predicted by a prediction market (and known as such). ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly positive ( 1% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly positive ( 15% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately positive ( 4% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately negative ( 15% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01.

Personal: I still read reddit frequently ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly negative ( 10% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] neutral/meh/don't care/his government didn't last long enough for me to have an opinion ( 25% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01.

[Personal – my weight in kg is] <100 ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01.

[Personal – my weight in kg is] <95 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01.

[Personal – my weight in kg is] <85 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01.

[Personal – my weight in kg is] <90 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly negative ( 30% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01.

[My total days exercised this year:] 170 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01.

[My total days exercised this year:] 180 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01.

[My total days exercised this year:] 190 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01.

[Personal – my weight in kg is] <75 ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01.

[Personal – my weight in kg is] <80 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01.

At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020. ( 57% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01.

An off-planet Playboy Club is operational before 2020. ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2020-01-01.

2020: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01.

2020: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01.

Vladimir Putin is not the President of Russia at the end of this prediction. ( 49% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by kuudes on 2016-02-07; known on 2020-01-01.

The RTX 2080 Ti will see an official price reduction (MSRP) of at least 300$ before the end of 2019. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2020-01-01.

The Navier-Stokes Millennium prize will be awarded before 2020-01-01 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-05-30; known on 2020-01-01.

Before 2020, Chromium will go closed-source, or Google/Alphabet/Alphabet subsidiary employees will generally stop contributing code to the open-source Chromium project ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2016-02-09; known on 2020-01-01.

I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2020 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by bobpage on 2017-06-19; known on 2020-01-01.

“China's current regime will be overthrown or reformed (another political Party come into power) before 2020” ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-07; known on 2020-01-01.

“We will end the decade with some mobile [electronics] energy storage system with an energy density close to or better than fat metabolism.” —W.H. Pearson ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01.

Sam Altman: Current YC Winter 2015 batch worth at least $3b by Jan 1, 2020 ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known on 2020-01-01.