Narendra Modi will not be PM after India's Lok Sabha 2024 ( 30% confidence )

Created by atharva117 17 days ago; known on 2024-06-16.

BJP will win India's Lok Sabha 2024 Elections ( 80% confidence )

Created by atharva117 17 days ago; known on 2024-06-16.

Harry Dresden will be infected with Nemesis at some point in The Dresden Files series (if the series is completed by Jim Butcher). ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by twmccart on 2015-01-23; known on 2024-06-16.

Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 13% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.

Trump will run for president in 2024 ( 23% confidence; 14 wagers )

Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-06; known on 2024-06-30.

Bugriyev Pavel says pedophilia will be normal in 5, but no more than 10 years. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ystasyuk on 2019-07-10; known on 2024-07-10.

SPR below 300M by end of H1 2024 ( 60% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-07-02; known on 2024-07-11.

[Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] arrested within five (5) years ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-19; known on 2024-07-19.

[Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-19; known on 2024-07-19.

some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-21; known on 2024-07-21.

[Alan Dershowitz (Alan Morton Dershowitz) (born September 1, 1938) gets ] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-22; known on 2024-07-22.

[Alan Dershowitz (Alan Morton Dershowitz) (born September 1, 1938) gets ] arrested within five (5) years ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-22; known on 2024-07-22.

Sony will be bought by other company in 10 years. ( 10% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2024-08-02.

If the “impossible NASA EmDrive” turns out to be working, it will be due to the emission of some kind of EM radiation (thermal radiation, microwave leakage, etc.) by the experimental setup, unaccounted as of now (08/10/2014). That is, the engine either do ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by maxikov on 2014-08-10; known on 2024-08-10.

Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.

First artificial intelligent sex worker in 10 years ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2024-08-13.

First artificial intelligent teacher in 10 years. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2024-08-13.

Donald Trump runs as an Independent in the 2024 Presidential election ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-08-16.

The Amazon rainforest fire triggers an irreversible catastrophic ecological collapse ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2024-08-16.

Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today ( 45% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by jamesrom on 2020-08-22; known on 2024-08-22.

General consensus that LK-99 or some component of it is a room temp superconductor by Sept 1, 2024 ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-02; known on 2024-09-01.

Ron DeSantis wins the 2024 Republican presidential primary ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-14; known on 2024-09-01.

Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 5 years. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2019-09-15; known on 2024-09-15.

[Onision (Gregory Daniel Jackson) (born November 11, 1985) gets] arrested within five (5) years ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-09-29; known on 2024-09-29.

[Onision (Gregory Daniel Jackson) (born November 11, 1985) gets] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-09-29; known on 2024-09-29.

Brazilian tax reform will pass Congress before our 2024 midterm election days. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-12-02; known on 2024-10-06.

Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2024-10-16.

Detection of axions widely accepted in physics publications. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2014-10-20; known on 2024-10-20.

Bharat will eliminate absolute poverty(WB:1.90 USD definition) by 2024 ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-02; known on 2024-11-03.

Trump reelected in 2024. ( 31% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by bsl5265 on 2021-11-08; known on 2024-11-05.

I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2024 US Presidential Election ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Dapple on 2017-01-05; known on 2024-11-08.

Donald Trump will be elected president in 2024. ( 34% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-27; known on 2024-11-09.

Joe Biden wins the 2024 presidential election ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known on 2024-11-16.

Depression rates be an average of 1.0% higher in each of the following age groups in 2022 (to adjust for any demographic shifts). We should have access to this data in late 2014 (ie 10 years from now). According to the NIMH's interpretation of the NSD ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2014-11-30; known on 2024-11-30.

Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 3.34% GDP growth rate for Brasil in 2015- 2024. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-16.

Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 4.28% GDP growth rate for Zhongguo for 2015- 2024. ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-16.

Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 4.75% GDP growth rate for Việt Nam in 2015- 2024. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-25.

Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 1.96% GDP growth rate for Rossiya(Росси́я) in 2015- 2024. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-25.

Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 3.7% GDP growth rate for South Africa in 2015- 2024. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-25.

Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 4.82% GDP growth rate for Indonesia in 2015- 2024. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-25.

The Yemen civil war will be won by the Revolutionary Committee, and the Saudi-led Coalition(US,UK) will be defeated. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-26; known on 2024-12-25.

Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 6.98% GDP growth rate for Bharat for 2015- 2024. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-25.

“By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP.” ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2024-12-31.

Milo Yiannopoulos becomes a woman( post-op ) ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-16; known on 2024-12-31.

'President Mike Pence' ( 14% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known on 2024-12-31.

“US accounting and banking regulations will not require that loan portfolios held in the “banking book” be marked to market before 2024.” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2024-12-31.

Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft ( 7% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-27; known on 2024-12-31.

By the end of 2024, I will spend a 60 day stretch without experiencing any allergy symptoms ( 20% confidence )

Created by panashe on 2023-01-18; known on 2024-12-31.

There'll be an official e-cash system (in competition with bitcoins or whatever the surviving coin system is) by end of 2024. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-25; known on 2024-12-31.

More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. ( 21% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2024-12-31.