PredictionBook: Upcoming Predictions

Russian troops invade Moldova ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-02; known on 2023-01-01.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon will not become premier ministre of France in 2022. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Tot on 2022-05-13; known on 2023-01-01.

I will travel to Japan in 2022. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2023-01-01.

Russian government blocks access to Wikipedia ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-31; known on 2023-01-01.

Cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2023 ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2023-01-01.

SpaceX to declare bankruptcy by end of 2022 ( 2% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-03; known on 2023-01-01.

Vladimir Putin become a defendant in the International Criminal Court before 2023 ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by oakbound on 2022-05-20; known on 2023-01-01.

BFR to launch before 2022. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2023-01-01.

“advances in personal aviation will cause the cost of land in big sur, ca and other remote areas within 250mi of major metropolitan cities to at least triple within the next 15 years – outperforming the s&p 500 over that period.” ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-01-01.

China attempts a full scale invasion of Taiwan in 2022. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by atzeje on 2022-03-16; known on 2023-01-01.

SpaceX sends a passenger flight to Mars by 2023. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-22; known on 2023-01-01.

I will weigh an average of 67 kg in the last quarter of 2022. Currently 74.4kg ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by waveman on 2022-01-01; known on 2023-01-01.

Elon Musk completes acquisition of Twitter ( 58% confidence; 35 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-14; known on 2023-01-01.

Sometime within calendar year 2022, Ooga leaves Ashley's embrace for long enough to log onto predictionbook and judge their only prediction. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.

Hikvision sanctioned by US Government ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-05; known on 2023-01-01.

[Covid origin:] The virus is definitively found to be a bioweapon, released deliberately or accidently by 2023 (<1% chance) ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.

I have visible lower abs by new year 2023 ( 45% confidence )

Created by Mckiev on 2022-06-24; known on 2023-01-01.

I will move to New York in 2022. Where “move” means that I have a bed which is mine in New York. ( 40% confidence )

Created by peterbarnett 14 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

[Covid origin:] Definitive evidence will be found concerning an accidental lab escape by 2023 ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.

[Covid origin:] The origin of COVID will still be indeterminate on 1 Jan 2023 ( 65% confidence )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.

In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01.

Chen-Ning Yang to become a centenarian ( 20% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2023-01-01.

oakbound is revealed to be clouduknguyen_95 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26; known on 2023-01-01.

In the next ten years, self-identified anarchists will out number self-identified Greens in the US. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01.

Ben: In 2022, in the US, >50% of the top 5% of citizens by income who use computers will not be using a mouse / keyboard. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-07-09; known on 2023-01-01.

Ukrainian military personnel fly Poland's MiG-29s into Ukraine ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-10; known on 2023-01-01.

The average graph edit distance from the set of all labeled directed graphs with n nodes to a similarly labeled directed path graph decreases monotonically with n. ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by niplav 30 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

Astronomers will detect a planet where alcohol is thought to rain from the sky. ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-07-12; known on 2023-01-01.

NATO will have more than 30 full member states before January 1, 2023, ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by oakbound on 2022-03-09; known on 2023-01-01.

Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01.

Los Angeles indoor mask mandate is in effect any time between now and Jan 2023 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-25; known on 2023-01-01.

Github will not censor libreboot corresponding source code off its service ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-21; known on 2023-01-01.

US to deliver Poland's MiG fighter jets to Ukraine ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-08; known on 2023-01-01.

Will John Goodenough hit age 100? ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-06; known on 2023-01-01.

Ooga and Ashley break up ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01.

Congress authorizes a deal to send F-16s to Poland in exchange for Poland sending Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine ( 29% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-06; known on 2023-01-01.

There will be no more lockdown due to Covid in Paris before the end of 2022. ( 66% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-27; known on 2023-01-01.

Russian troops boots on the ground in Estonia in active combat operations ( 37% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2023-01-01.

AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023 ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.

Hungarian governing party Fidesz will lose the 2022 general election or lose its governing power before that election. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by korakos on 2020-11-08; known on 2023-01-01.

Russian boots on the ground in active combat operations in Lithuania ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2023-01-01.

New Glenn to fly in 2022. ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-02-25; known on 2023-01-01.

First Starship attempt to reach orbit or near orbit will either never reach supersonic speed or will break up before reaching Max Q. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-23; known on 2023-01-01.

A bill legalizing marijuana in the US at the federal level is signed into law by 2023. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01.

The number of school shootings on the NBC tracker for 2022 exceeds 9 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26; known on 2023-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly negative ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )