PredictionBook: Upcoming Predictions

First Tesla Cybertruck delivered to customer in 2021. ( 45% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

At the end of the year, I will consider the UFO talk to have been no significant evidence for the existence of aliens ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by sty.silver on 2021-05-23; known on 2022-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project's December 2016 grant to Impact Justice's Restorative Justice Project will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level (United States) by 2020-01-01 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2022-01-01.

SpaceX starship has a successful test launch in which it lands without major issues (defined as causing enough damage to the ship that it can’t be reused) in 2021. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

[I will go to Italy] Before December 31 ( 80% confidence )

Created by vlad.proex on 2021-05-15; known on 2022-01-01.

>1 million american refugees have entered canadian borders ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2022-01-01.

We will have three sessions of the ILFC Seminar by the end of 2021. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Tot 17 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

Kobe Bryant will own a professional sports team outside the US within the next 12 years (till 2024) ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2022-01-01.

Proof that P≠NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

Number of people in the world living in extreme global poverty is below 743,336,050 (as measured by https://worldpoverty.io/map) on January 1st, 2022. ( 95% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' —Steven Pinker ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-03; known on 2022-01-01.

My employer's planned January return to the office is pushed back again. ( 70% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen 25 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

US bicycle mode share will increase in the 2020 Census over 2010 ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-05-11; known on 2022-01-01.

“within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.” —Dennis Mangan ( 65% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-21; known on 2022-01-01.

No widespread (>1%) issues with fertility as a result of the COVID-19 vaccine (e.g. pfizer) will be known (i.e. reported by reputable US based source e.g. NYT,FDA or equivalent) by 2022. ( 96% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by Ghodith on 2021-05-14; known on 2022-01-01.

Literature – Part three of the Kingkiller Chronicle trilogy is not going to be released before 2022-01-01. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by NickN on 2020-08-16; known on 2022-01-01.

Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-11-08; known on 2022-01-01.

I will be a member of a cryonics organisation before 2022. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-14; known on 2022-01-01.

Housing crash (average price down at least 30%) in Ontario, Canada by the end of the year. ( 20% confidence )

Created by ianc on 2021-05-09; known on 2022-01-02.

Sometime this year, the South African and Brazilian strains – or other new strains with similar dynamics – will be a majority of coronavirus cases in the US ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2022-01-02.

sometime in 2021, the FDA grants a pharmaceutical company general approval for coronavirus vaccines which can adapt to changing virus strains without going through the entire FDA approval process again ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2022-01-02.

Data published by Cisco in 2020 or 2021 about total volume of IP traffic per month in 2020 will show an amount more than 10% higher than their prediction of 228 EB. ( 39% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-05; known on 2022-01-02.

conditional on DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.95.1.128 being replicated with a non W.E.I.R.D. sample of test subjects & n>=400, test subjects will be more or less accurate in assessment of likelihood of assistance given (prdcted M>24.5 or M<16.6) ( 60% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-16; known on 2022-01-02.

I will find my niche within EA ( 10% confidence )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net 28 days ago; known on 2022-01-03.

The AMC stock will go through a short squeeze, where the stock will reach at least US$ 100/ea, but it could potentially reach more than US$ 500/ea. ( 70% confidence )

Created by alfredbaudisch on 2021-08-09; known on 2022-01-04.

Highest exact match rate on SQuAD 2.0 >92.0 on January 14, 2022 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/). ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-14.

Top price performance (in G3D Mark / $) of GPU ≥60 on January 14, 2022 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark—of-gpu/). ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-14.

The average degree of automation changes for key US professions in between December 2020 and January 2022 by >1 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/). ( 55% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-14.

RSA-1024 will be factored by 2021-12-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by evand on 2021-03-04; known on 2022-01-15.

[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 40M ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )