A mundane, accepted explanation for the apparent imaginary mass of neutrinos will be found by 2020 that does not involve the neutrinos actually having imaginary mass (e.g. some form of systematic error). ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-27; known in 21 days.

Tentative announcements of the discovery of intelligent life in other solar systems will appear in peer reviewed journals by 2020. ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-05-25; known in 21 days.

“By the year 2020 solar electricity will be as cheap or cheaper than that produced by fossil fuels.” ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known in 21 days.

Gitmo will still be around by 2020 ( 46% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-01; known in 21 days.

Mandatory paternity testing in some states of the USA by 2020. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by tomokaicho on 2013-01-28; known in 21 days.

One or more current SSRI or SNRI (includes newer generation serotonergics like Viibrid) becomes under investigation by FDA for misrepresentation of clinical trial results before 2020. ( 50% confidence )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known in 21 days.

'The graphics card market collapses due to them overshooting consumer demand* and possibly being subsumed by new CPUs.' by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known in 21 days.

S&P 500 P/E below 9 any time before 2020 Jan 1. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known in 21 days.

No Magic: The Gathering film will have been released in more than 1000 theaters by January 1st, 2020. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aarongertler on 2015-09-24; known in 21 days.

Trump Republicans split from GOP to start a third party. ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known in 21 days.

Arbital will merge content with LessWrong (proper or wiki) by 2020-01-01 ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known in 21 days.

Can be (legally) driven on standard roads between a majority of arbitrary street addresses in at least one major city or region (in any country) by a fully autonomous vehicle by 2020 Jan 1. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known in 21 days.

A nuclear bomb (primary, not dirty) will be detonated, anywhere on earth, immediately killing more than 100 people, any time between 2015/1/1 and 2020/1/1. ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known in 21 days.

When DeepDream for audio is invented, the output will cause seriously ill effects in humans like seizures. This will happen before 2020. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Houshalter on 2016-02-09; known in 21 days.

the Large Aral Sea gone in 2019 ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known in 21 days.

The technology to render a human effectively invisible (i.e. apparently transparent) to the eye at a distance of less than 100 meters will be publicly demonstrated by 2020. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known in 21 days.

Bitcoin was created by aliens ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known in 21 days.

“Bionic eyes are commercially available” in 2019 ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known in 21 days.

“The ITER experimental fusion reactor is switched on” in 2019 ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known in 21 days.

“By 2020, in real or artificial life, sustainable evolutionary progress in a genetically closed system will not have been demonstrated.” ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known in 21 days.

“Global oil demand exceeds 100m barrels per day” in 2019 ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known in 21 days.

“By 2020, historians will agree that the the start of the 21st century also marked the beginning of the “Second” or “New Renaissance.”” ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known in 21 days.

PredictionBook exists on 01-01-2020 OR you will have some other way to access this prediction or other predictions made thus far. ( 100% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by asdf on 2014-05-17; known in 21 days.

“The average European unemployment rate for 2009-2018 (i.e., the next decade) will be at least 1% higher than U.S. unemployment rate.” Bryan Caplan ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known in 21 days.

Fusion used (not just demonstrated) as a general power source (>1 Watt) anywhere in the world before 2020 Jan 1. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known in 21 days.

Paul Graham: Bitcoin may have been created by a government ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-25; known in 21 days.

Iraq splits into 3, (either 3 distinct states or a single federal government of 3 autonomous regions), before 2020 ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-25; known in 21 days.

The Hubble Telescope will not deorbit before January 1, 2020. ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known in 21 days.

No human beats the best Go AI in an unhandicapped competitive game by 2020 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by mortehu on 2017-01-09; known in 21 days.

“Acute spinal injuries are fully treatable” in 2019 ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known in 21 days.

Apple will sell smart glasses before 2020. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known in 21 days.

By 2020, a former US government official will come forward to say that they were involved in planning the 9/11 attacks. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known in 21 days.

The Majorana Demonstrator or its successor experiment will find 5-sigma evidence of neutrinoless double beta decay by January 1, 2020. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-11; known in 21 days.

Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known in 21 days.

“Self-replicating manufacturing machines will be commonplace by 2020.” ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known in 21 days.

'Chinese GDP on a PPP basis will be roughly comparable to that of the US and the EU (i.e. within 25%)' in 2020 —Shane Legg ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known in 21 days.

'A major meteor impact occurs on the north polar ice cap. The resulting tsunamis cause considerable damage along the coasts of Greeland and Canada. The long-discussed “Project Spaceguard,” to identify and deflect potentially dangerous comets or asteroids, ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known in 21 days.

I will sign up for cryonics before 2020. ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-06; known in 21 days.

A Myst live-action movie will not be released before 2020. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-04; known in 21 days.

NGE: There will not be a live-action Evangelion movie before 2020 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known in 21 days.

Virtual Retinal Displays become the dominant technology for heads up displays ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PrometheanFaun on 2013-05-18; known in 21 days.

>0 serotonergic drugs withdrawn from US market, OR loses >0 of its FDA approved indication (before 2020) ( 18% confidence )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-08; known in 21 days.

The first functional, 3D printed television/monitor screen will be demonstrated by 2020. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-30; known in 21 days.

'[I] believe that the answer to the dark matter question will be found within a decade.' —John Ellis ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known in 21 days.

'high-end gaming PCs will still have dedicated GPU chips somewhere in them in 2020, and that those chips will cost at least $200 for top-of-the-range and at least $100 for mid range' —Roko ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known in 21 days.

Aoki Uru will be released as a full movie by 2020. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-21; known in 21 days.

People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. —Ray Kurz ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 21 days.

A $1,000 personal computer has as much raw power as the human brain. —Ray Kurzweil ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 21 days.

People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 21 days.

Planetary Resources won't be mining asteroids by 2020 ( 84% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-25; known in 21 days.