Upcoming Predictions
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Bharat will be ranked No3 in the world for science by 2022(ranked by Citable documents, Scopus DB). ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30; known on 2021-12-16.
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Skip will run a goaltimate league in the San Francisco Bay Area in Fall 2021 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Liface on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-12-21.
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In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-24; known on 2021-12-24.
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Avatar 2 is released in December 2021 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-12-25.
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Bharat will meet or exceed the Copenhagen pledge to reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 20–25% in 2020 compared to 2005 levels. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-04; known on 2021-12-25.
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Bharat will be ranked 7th in 2021, up from 13th in 2014 in the Nature Index.(Qualitative Science ranking) ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-10; known on 2021-12-25.
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EU's world share in science papers declined from 38.5% in 2003 to 35.5% in 2012, and by 2021 will be under 32.5%. — Web of Science, Thomson Reuters ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-25.
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Bharat will be ranked 4th in the world by 2021 for zinc production. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2021-12-25.
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1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use ( 85% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25.
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Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-25.
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1 person helicopter drones in commercial use ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25.
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There will not be a pandemic by Christmas 2021 (in at least half of all countries on a political map, according to their governments) ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by wizzwizz4 on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-12-27.
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In 10 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2021-12-28.
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GPT-3 or comparably advanced AI will be used to generate in-game AI behavior, gameplay logic, and/or story/plot content in a AAA game. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2021-12-31.
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Diablo IV is released in 2021 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-12-31.
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Blue Origin's New Glenn to enter commercial service by the end of 2021. ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-14; known on 2021-12-31.
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1-5-10-15 income tax passes in the US ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-17; known on 2021-12-31.
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0% corporate tax in US ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-17; known on 2021-12-31.
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Australia will open its borders to travellers from Canada, without an exemption or quarantine requirement, at some point in 2021 ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sjy on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-12-31.
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Data-centers get carbon taxed by the end of 2021 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-25; known on 2021-12-31.
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SPX reaches 4000 by the end of 2021 ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-10; known on 2021-12-31.
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By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain. ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2018-12-01; known on 2021-12-31.
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Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by bobpage on 2011-09-12; known on 2022-01-01.
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Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by bobpage on 2019-08-12; known on 2022-01-01.
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Kobe Bryant will own a professional sports team outside the US within the next 12 years (till 2024) ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2022-01-01.
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Google Plus will continue to be actively supported by Google through 2021, with growth in active users. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2022-01-01.
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Prime minister Boris Johnson ( 37% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged unknown by splorridge on 2016-07-14.
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OoTS: MitD is the Snarl. ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-06-30; known on 2022-01-01.
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Utah public lands lawsuit reaches US Supreme Court ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-04; known on 2022-01-01.
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Will Boston's snowfall in 2020-2021 be below average? ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-12-01; known on 2022-01-01.
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Created by waveman on 2021-01-05; known on 2022-01-01.
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Microsoft buys Cloudflare ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-24; known on 2022-01-01.
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Airplanes are becoming less safe in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's in the U.S. ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-07-06; known on 2022-01-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project's December 2016 grant to Impact Justice's Restorative Justice Project will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level (United States) by 2020-01-01 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2022-01-01.
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'Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft' in 2021 ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01.
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CPUs switch from silicon to carbon nanotubes by 2022 ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01.
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'Water crisis in southwest USA' in 2021 ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01.
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Nawa will publish data justifying their press release's claims of record-high battery energy density in 2021. ( 30% confidence )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-27; known on 2022-01-01.
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Most of the gene sites accounting for the additive heritability of g (0.6) will be identified by 2021. — Steve Hsu ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Pablo Stafforini on 2012-10-13; known on 2022-01-01.
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There won't be a significant automobile virus sighting ( 13% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known on 2022-01-01.
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MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-03; known on 2022-01-01.
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First SLS to fly by end of 2021. ( 31% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01.
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New Glenn to launch by end of 2021. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-14; known on 2022-01-01.
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Proof that P=NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.
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Lebron James will average a triple double in an NBA season during his career ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2022-01-01.
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New Glenn rocket to fly putting a payload into orbit by end of 2021. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01.
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North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19; known on 2022-01-01.
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>=10 IEDs used on US highways in 2021 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-01; known on 2022-01-01.
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Jair Bolsonaro sofre impeachment antes do final de 2021 ( 45% confidence )
Created by rapinoinfeliz on 2020-07-22; known on 2022-01-01.
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Israel and Egypt at war by 2022 ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-16; known on 2022-01-01.