The UK to leave the EU without a deal on, or by, 31 October ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-05-16; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to have been held ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Scottish National Party to have gained seats in general election ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] the UK to not be a member of the European Union ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Labour to have gained seats in general election ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in October for which data are published ( 39% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Labour to have won a majority in general election ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

There will be a new iPhone in 2019 that uses a USB-C connector instead of Lightning ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by jamesrom on 2019-06-11; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Independent Group for Change to have gained seats in general election ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to be formally announced ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Democratic Unionists to have gained seats in general election ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Conservatives to have gained seats in general election ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “Brexit with a deal” to have happened ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Conservatives to have won a majority in general election ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Article 50 to have been extended ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “no-deal Brexit” to have happened ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Liberal Democrats to have won a majority in general election ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.

James Cameron is accused of sexual harassment/assault by at least one woman. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-01; known on 2019-11-01.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for September 2019 to exceed 50% ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-11-05.

Michael Bay is accused of sexual harassment/assault by at least one woman ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-06; known on 2019-11-06.

[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] under $40 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 14% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of November 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] October 2019 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-11-10.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of November 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] November 2018 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-11-10.

[Commodities] As of November 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of October 2019 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-11-14.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-11-14.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 46% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-11-14.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 39% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-11-14.

Antonio Costa's government won't survive its entire term ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by JoaoEira on 2015-12-19; known on 2019-11-16.

[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for October 2019 to exceed 110 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-11-25.

Mauricio Macri will be re-elected president of Argentina. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Argentine_general_election ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Pablo Stafforini on 2019-07-25; known on 2019-11-25.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2019-12-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2019-12-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2019-12-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2019-12-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in November for which data are published ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-12-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2019-12-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 23 days ago; known on 2019-12-01.

The NDA will win the India's 2019 General Elections ( 86% confidence )

Created by Nve on 2018-02-13; known on 2019-12-01.

By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that EAGx events result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.

By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that standard marketing and outreach (e.g. online ads) result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.

By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that the Doing Good Better book giveaway results on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.

I won't work somewhere where I have to wear something more fancy than jeans in the next 5 years. (Jason said he thinks I will) ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-03; known on 2019-12-03.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for October 2019 to exceed 50% ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-12-05.