“Anti-fat drugs are available” in 2018 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known in 15 days.

“Consumer devices with 100 Gbit/s transfer speeds” in 2018 ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known in 15 days.

“Robot insect spies are in military use” in 2018 ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known in 15 days.

There will have been more than 1500 CI Members at some point before 2019. ( 68% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known in 15 days.

Tillerson will be SoS on 12/31/18 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-30; known in 15 days.

Rian Johnson’s new Star Wars trilogy takes place before the Prequel Trilogy. ( 65% confidence )

Created by gallerdude on 2017-12-26; known in 15 days.

news.ycombinator.com will shut down or be offline >= 1 week before 2019 ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2017-09-19; known in 15 days.

Chris Dixon: Amazon.com will be using bitcoins in 5 years (by 1/1/2019) ( 33% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-13; known in 15 days.

https://predictionbook.com/predictions/186415 + Stephen Paddock targeted the country music festival because Paddock or ISIS or a co-conspirator believed the attendees were more likely to be Trump voters or supportive of bomb-ISIS policies ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by bobpage on 2017-10-08; known in 15 days.

ASOIAF : Wbua Fabj unf Gnetnelra oybbq naq qbrf abg ohea sebz qentbaf ( 42% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known in 15 days.

“The fertility rate in China drops below the replacement level, and nothing the government can do can get Chinese couples to have more than 1.5 kids each.” ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known in 15 days.

For at least one full hour in 2018, Ethereum will have a total market capitalization of $250B or more, as judged by coinmarketcap.com (or a commonly accepted alternative if coinmarketcap.com no longer exists) ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-17; known in 15 days.

Canada's Federal NDP will adopt the LEAP manifesto as official party policy ( 58% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known in 15 days.

SaskTel privatized ( 21% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known in 15 days.

AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2019 ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known in 15 days.

Maduro shot within 30 days of Óscar Pérez publicly posting bitcoin address ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-15; known in 15 days.

President Trump will be impeached by 12/31/18 ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known in 15 days.

Ripple (XRP) is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-05; known in 15 days.

USS Gerald R. Ford CVN 78 will spend fewer than 30 days on deployment in 2018 ( 85% confidence )

Created by Dapple on 2017-07-24; known in 15 days.

I will still be below 68kg at the end of 2018 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known in 15 days.

Public demonstration of an AI that can learn the rules of, and play at a superhuman level, most board/card games without supervision, just watching many games and being told who won, in 2018. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by HonoreDB on 2017-12-06; known in 15 days.

'The African Central Bank is established' in 2018 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known in 15 days.

Trump to end 2018 with ≥40% approval rating as aggregated by 538. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known in 15 days.

I am still at SFDC in 3 years ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known in 15 days.

Brazil's GDP will be above its 2014 level in 2018. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known in 15 days.

Emperor Akihito will abdicate the throne by January 1, 2019. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by pvoberstein on 2017-04-18; known in 15 days.

SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2019. ( 36% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known in 15 days.

Francis is still Pope on 1/1/19 ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known in 15 days.

U.S will experience a recession before 2019 according to FRED data ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-12-01; known in 15 days.

Theranos will get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood-tests by 2019 ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by ChristianKl on 2015-12-16; known in 15 days.

Cardano (ADA) is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-05; known in 15 days.

Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known in 15 days.

Theresa May UK PM throughout 2018 ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known in 15 days.

Jared Kushner is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known in 15 days.

Stellar (XLM) is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 ( 15% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-05; known in 15 days.

“Environmentalism is embraced by the conservative Christian right.” ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known in 15 days.

'Amazon builds its first bricks-and-mortar superstore.' ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known in 15 days.

Food shortages (eg grocery/food stores with empty shelves) reported at some point before 2019 in South Africa ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12; known in 15 days.

“second attack” in Santa Monica either incorrect/didn't happen, or outright media/government fabrication ( 42% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-13; known in 15 days.

By end of 2018 I will conclude (by object level reasoning), that AI safety is most important cause area ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known in 15 days.

4chan to remain a top-1000 site by the end of 2018 ( 30% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known in 15 days.

Quora to make an independent IPO by 2018 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known in 15 days.

2018: After finding the vaccine for HIV, researchers are able to start clinical trials for cures/vaccines for viruses like the cold and flu. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known in 15 days.

Google will acquire Yelp by 2018 ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known in 15 days.

If Greece is bailed out under condition of austerity, these conditions will cease to be enforced within Greece by 2018, or never be enforced at all. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known in 15 days.

China will fully seize executive power in Hong Kong by 2018. ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Nick.dylan on 2017-04-14; known in 15 days.

“Polygamy is granted legal status in the US.” ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known in 15 days.

By January 1, 2019 War between North Korea and at least one of the US, Britain, China, Japan, South Korea, or the collapse of the North Korean government. ( 25% confidence; 15 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known in 15 days.

Amazon will choose either Miami or Boston as their HQ2 (me) ( 50% confidence )

Created by workbean on 2018-01-31; known in 15 days.