https://bugs.launchpad.net/ubuntu/source/electric/bug/475181 is still a valid bug in GNU electric 9.06+dfsg-1 ( 94% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-04; known on 2024-01-01.

Donald Trump is indicted anywhere in the US, for any reason ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 14 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the mean squared error of the predicted to the actual Brier score for the questions be better on logistic fit than the exponential fit, for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01.

There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by qap on 2013-09-21; known on 2024-01-01.

Egypt will default on its debt by the end of 2023 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2024-01-01.

The duration of copyright in America will be extended before 2024 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aoeu on 2015-05-01; known on 2024-01-01.

It is legal and possible to anonymously buy recreational Cannabis in Germany by December 31 2023 (at least one actual legal shop/seller, can be online) ( 20% confidence )

Created by M on 2023-01-01; known on 2024-01-02.

The “Steamboat Willie” cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain in 2023 or earlier ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2016-09-12; known on 2024-01-02.

[I will get married in] 2023 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Leo on 2021-08-12; known on 2024-01-02.

I am still married to my current partner ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by penten on 2017-01-11; known on 2024-01-11.

Joe Biden runs for president in 2024 ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known on 2024-01-16.

Jacinda Ardern will win a new term. ( 98% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-01; known on 2024-01-16.

Trump is assassinated during his first or second term. ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by equivrel on 2017-01-29; known on 2024-02-01.

Correcting for education, IQ, income, religion, race, age, and some measure of health, rural people are more likely than urban people to commit the naturalistic fallacy. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Leo on 2014-02-09; known on 2024-02-09.

I will reach 100,000 lifetime book sales within 2 years (Currently 70,000) ( 80% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2022-02-19; known on 2024-02-19.

I will lose my virginity before I turn 25 ( 10% confidence )

Created by lazydope on 2022-04-28; known on 2024-03-01.

If you are still in touch with kyle, then I predict that whatever relationship he is in with this guy will end within 1.5 years ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by chris.walton113@gmail.com 13 days ago; known on 2024-03-11.

I will have published a paper by March 15, 2024 on Zaremba's function and weighted GM-AM inequality. ( 62% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-02-17; known on 2024-03-15.

[Effective Altruism 2024:] Positively shaping AI and reducing biorisk will be the top 2 focuses within existential risk reduction (conditional on X-Risk still being a priority) ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.

[Effective Altruism 2024:] Existential risk reduction will have more attention than any other cause ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.

[Effective Altruism 2024:] Longtermism will be the general outlook of EAs ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.

Joe Biden will be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2024 ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-03-16.

Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term) ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Stommelen on 2018-12-21; known on 2024-03-17.

I will get married at age 35, +/- 2 years. I'll be 35 in 2022. So I'll know in 2024. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-09-07; known on 2024-04-09.

The majority of public schools in Arizona will not require students to utilize spaced repetition software at any point within the next 10 years. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-25; known on 2024-04-25.

My children will have perfect aural skills because I will sing while pregnant ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by influnza on 2014-04-30; known on 2024-04-30.

Shoigu remains as Russian Minister of Defense until the end of Putin's current term. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-27; known on 2024-05-01.

erowid.org still exists with its full archive available to the public, on May 1 2024 ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by finback on 2020-09-18; known on 2024-05-01.

Putin serves as President of Russia for the remainder of his current term ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-01; known on 2024-05-07.

Putin runs for President of Russia again in 2024 ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-01; known on 2024-05-07.

at least one major terrorist attack on a pride event with deaths. killers will reference “grooming” as cause. ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2024-05-08.

legislation will be introduced to ban trans-affirming care for trans adults in the next 2 years . ( 89% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2024-05-08.

BJP will win even the 2024 elections ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by optimaton on 2019-12-30; known on 2024-06-01.

Johnny Depp is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by oakbound on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.

Amber Heard is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by oakbound on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.

Harry Dresden will be infected with Nemesis at some point in The Dresden Files series (if the series is completed by Jim Butcher). ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by twmccart on 2015-01-23; known on 2024-06-16.

Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 13% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.

Trump will run for president in 2024 ( 23% confidence; 14 wagers )

Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-06; known on 2024-06-30.

Bugriyev Pavel says pedophilia will be normal in 5, but no more than 10 years. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ystasyuk on 2019-07-10; known on 2024-07-10.

[Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-19; known on 2024-07-19.

[Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] arrested within five (5) years ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-19; known on 2024-07-19.

some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-21; known on 2024-07-21.

[Alan Dershowitz (Alan Morton Dershowitz) (born September 1, 1938) gets ] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-22; known on 2024-07-22.

[Alan Dershowitz (Alan Morton Dershowitz) (born September 1, 1938) gets ] arrested within five (5) years ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-22; known on 2024-07-22.

Sony will be bought by other company in 10 years. ( 10% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2024-08-02.

If the “impossible NASA EmDrive” turns out to be working, it will be due to the emission of some kind of EM radiation (thermal radiation, microwave leakage, etc.) by the experimental setup, unaccounted as of now (08/10/2014). That is, the engine either do ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by maxikov on 2014-08-10; known on 2024-08-10.

Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.

First artificial intelligent sex worker in 10 years ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2024-08-13.

First artificial intelligent teacher in 10 years. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2024-08-13.