Ben: In 2022, in the US, >50% of the top 5% of citizens by income who use computers will not be using a mouse / keyboard. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-07-09; known on 2023-01-01.

I will move to New York in 2022. Where “move” means that I have a bed which is mine in New York. ( 40% confidence )

Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2023-01-01.

Github will not censor libreboot corresponding source code off its service ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-21; known on 2023-01-01.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2022 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately negative ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly negative ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly negative ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly positive ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2022 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly positive ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately positive ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] neutral/meh/don't care/his government didn't last long enough for me to have an opinion ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2023-01-01.

China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. ( 7% confidence; 23 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-08; known on 2023-01-01.

By 2022, some roads will be self-driving-only. —Alyssa Vance ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01.

By 2020, [nearly] all hybrids will be plug-ins. —Alyssa Vance ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01.

By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. — Alyssa Vance ( 44% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01.

I will not believe in the Christian God in Jan 2023 ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-24; known on 2023-01-01.

There will be no paper newspapers left in the US by 2022 (http://rationalconspiracy.com/2012/11/23/the-real-america-of-2022/) ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2023-01-01.

ASOIAF: Wba Fabj vf jnetrq ol Oybbqenira be Oena (be obgu) ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2016-04-28; known on 2023-01-02.

ASOIAF: Wba Fabj jvyy or jnetrq ol Oybbqenira ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by muflax on 2016-04-27; known on 2023-01-02.

in 2022, public health officials recommend that you get “your yearly COVID shot”, even if you have previously been vaccinated against COVID ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2023-01-02.

Copyright on Steamboat Willy will be extended in some manner past 2023. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-30; known on 2023-01-02.

AMC will hit as low as $8 again and then bounce to a new ATH, higher than $80, during 2022. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by alfredbaudisch on 2022-01-04; known on 2023-01-04.

Conditional on visiting Russia, I will like it better than the United Kingdom. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Issa Rice on 2020-06-01; known on 2023-01-05.

Conditional on visiting Russia, there will be a single day during my visit that I will consider better than my day in Vienna (during my 2019 visit). ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Issa Rice on 2020-06-01; known on 2023-01-05.

I will visit Russia by December 31, 2022 (“visit” includes both short visits and moving there). ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Issa Rice on 2020-06-01; known on 2023-01-05.

Worldwide deaths in 2022 to exceed 90 million people. ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2023-01-15.

I will self-identify as vegan ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-17; known on 2023-01-16.

[Personal] Climbing will still be my primary form of exercise by 2023 (continuous between 2020 and 2023; caveat: barring major injury) ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2023-01-19.

In the future, a woman will be on the agenda with great scientific research, and this case will affect female software developers in a good way. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by smodnix on 2020-07-11; known on 2023-01-20.

Mexico will pay for (at least 50% of) the cost of the United States southern border wall. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by regex on 2017-01-22; known on 2023-01-23.

Serious nuclear incident (e.g. nuke going off, dirty bomb, or serious reactor meltdown before Feb 1, 2023). ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-22; known on 2023-02-01.

Arthur Lira (PL) will be reelected as the President of Brazil's Lower Chamber ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DanCoimbra 16 days ago; known on 2023-02-02.

Joe Biden has a near-death experience in the next two years ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2023-02-06.

I will be infected with covid-19 during the next semester, i.e. between 24.10.22 and 14.2.23, and will have symptoms for at least 5 days. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by aarmai19 on 2022-09-22; known on 2023-02-14.

I will lose my virginity before I turn 24 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2023-03-01.

Official US death total from covid to be at least 1,250,000 by March 1, 2023 ( 58% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ 28 days ago; known on 2023-03-01.

After X-Men DFP, Hugh Jackman will reprise his role as Wolverine in another movie. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Omid on 2013-11-11; known on 2023-03-01.

I will catch up with my flashcard debt duplicate of: https://manifold.markets/EmrikGarden/will-i-have-caught-up-with-my-flash ( 15% confidence )

Created by emrik 1 day ago; known on 2023-03-01.

Brock Osweiler is out of NFL within 7 years ( 7% confidence )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-13; known on 2023-03-13.

NFT games will be one of the hottest topics of 2022, led by The Sandbox, where it's crypto token SAND will reach as high as $30. But eventually, “NFT Games” will fade in by 2023, because everyone will realize how bad and how unsustainable they are. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by alfredbaudisch on 2022-01-04; known on 2023-03-18.

I will still be using Prediction Book in 5 year's time. ( 56% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-29; known on 2023-03-29.

I will get a grade of 1.7 or better in the final exam of Probability Theory ( 50% confidence )

Created by aarmai19 on 2022-10-26; known on 2023-04-01.

Twitter will suffer a large scale (global or multi-continent) outage lasting more than 1 hour on or before March 31, 2023 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jacobgreenleaf 6 days ago; known on 2023-04-01.

By 2023, someone will have a part or all of their calvarium (skull cap) removed and replaced by a transparent, durable material for the purpose of body modification. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Digglerson on 2013-03-25; known on 2023-04-01.

At least one Entso-e supranational brownout or blackout or rolling blackout above 15 min. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by atzeje on 2022-09-17; known on 2023-04-01.

UK police officers will routinely use real-time (live) facial recognition software and be equipped with webcams to aid in the apprehension of wanted criminals. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by AdamSmith on 2016-04-30; known on 2023-04-02.

We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years. ( 21% confidence; 13 wagers )

Created by JohnGreer on 2018-04-13; known on 2023-04-13.

btc at 100k+ in two years ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by htaussig on 2021-04-19; known on 2023-04-19.

During the election of 2024 for President, both Independents and Republicans (the Republicans had been in decline) will put up vigorous campaigns against the Democrat. ( 85% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Turtleread on 2012-11-05; known on 2023-04-21.