PredictionBook: Upcoming Predictions

Due to Bharat's industrialization prices will boom in an exact replay of what happened in 2001-11 commodity bull market driven by Zhongguo. Commodities prices, as measured by the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI), will rise at least 275% since the start ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2026-12-31.

Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2027-01-01.

SpaceX Starship to land on moon by end of 2026. ( 47% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-30; known on 2027-01-01.

I will use PredictionBook at least once a year until 2027 ( 33% confidence )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-19; known on 2027-01-01.

Caffeine will be an illegal substance … in 60 countries by 2027. ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-01-01.

I will visit LessWrong once a year until 2027 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2027-01-01.

Wireless electricity is ubiquitous in 2026 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.

The United States of Africa is established by 2026 ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.

Construction of the Sagrada Família is complete in 2026 ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.

Contact with the Voyager probes is lost by 2026 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.

PRC blockade of Taiwan by sea and air ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-10-26; known on 2027-01-01.

Capitalism will collapse. Federal gov won't exist. Peak oil ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Musrang on 2023-03-21; known on 2027-01-01.

Bitcoin was designed by a group of mathematicians as a side project while working for the NSA. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-31; known on 2027-01-01.

SpaceX Starship to land on moon by end of 2026. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-16; known on 2027-01-01; judged unknown by Jayson Virissimo on 2021-05-04.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to support the work of Professor Deborah Cao a major success ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to support the work of Professor Deborah Cao a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-01-01.

2017 Cloud Cover for continental US more than it was in 2007 ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-26; known on 2027-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a major success ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a success ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-01-01.

2026: Last DRM-spewing company closes down. People once again share media w/o technological barricades ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-10; known on 2027-01-01.

'The cost per watt of solar PV has dropped to below $1' by 2027 ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2027-01-01.

I will start a PhD by 2027 ( 60% confidence )

Created by FergusFettes on 2022-08-16; known on 2027-01-01.

rapamycin to be demonstrated to increase average lifespan in dogs by 2026 ( 70% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2027-01-01.

SpaceX to land a version of Starship on Mars by the end of 2026. ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-24; known on 2027-01-01.

Heroku will be sunset or at least rebranded (“Salesforce Cloud”) and closed off new registrations (e.g. “contact us”) by 2027. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-08-25; known on 2027-01-01.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2026-12-31 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )