Joe Biden will pick Stacey Abrams as his running mate. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by contra 21 days ago; known in 20 days.

still living in chicago on Aug 1 ( 70% confidence )

Created by joshuabecker on 2020-06-10; known in 20 days.

New York City will not be subject to any executive orders restricting movement or gathering on August 1st, 2020 ( 20% confidence )

Created by panashe on 2020-05-22; known in 20 days.

Collision between Chinese and Taiwanese naval vessels or military aircraft by 2020-07-31 ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-01; known in 20 days.

Tech – OnePlus Nord is released by deadline and has a 90Hz refresh rate screen in all models. ( 80% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 6 days ago; known in 20 days.

[Fighting] Claressa Shields to have a professional MMA bout by 2020-07-31 ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-01; known in 20 days.

Tech – OnePlus Nord's UK release price is £400 or less. ( 75% confidence )

Created by jbeshir 6 days ago; known in 20 days.

Harvard to reopen for fall 2020 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known in 20 days.

Collision between Chinese and US naval vessels or military aircraft by 2020-07-31 ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-01; known in 20 days.

[US politics] The 2020 Democratic VP candidate to be one of the participants in the July 2019 debate ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-09; known in 20 days.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win more medals than any other country or Olympic committee ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known in 28 days.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win the most weightlifting medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known in 28 days.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win more shooting medals than the USA ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known in 28 days.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win at least one medal in weightlifting ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known in 28 days.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Taiwan (or “Chinese Taipei”) to win at least one medal ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known in 28 days.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Taiwan to compete as “Chinese Taipei” ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known in 28 days.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Cuba to win more wrestling medals than the USA ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known in 28 days.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known in 28 days.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] North Korea to win more weightlifting medals than the USA ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known in 28 days.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win the most karate medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known in 28 days.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Russia to win the most wrestling medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known in 28 days.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics] France to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known in 28 days.

The study of Hölscher will show that at in Munich max 5 times as many people are infected with Covid-19 than positive tests showed. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2020-04-24; known in 29 days.

Antibiotics to become useless within 10 years. —Tim Walsh ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2020-08-13.

Bitcoin will have gone past $12,000 in the next three months. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JohnGreer on 2020-05-13; known on 2020-08-13.

By August 15, 2020, the Financial Post in Canada won't exist, and this column's link won't be available. opinion/lawrence-solomon-how-teslas-elon-musk-became-the-master-of-fake-business ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by saskboy on 2017-08-29; known on 2020-08-15.

The Amazon Rainforest fire makes at least two tribal languages extinct ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2020-08-16.

Climate change news related psychological disorders (including stress and anxiety induced by news) spawns a new branch of psychiatry ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2020-08-16.

There'll be a global average “dip” in the rate of population increase directly attributable to people voluntarily forgoing having kids due to climate change fears ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2020-08-16.

>50% of the world population has to scan their eye(/iris) at least once per day ( 4% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27; known on 2020-08-19.

The USA government foreign policy will concentrate on attacking little countries like Grenada that are nearby rather than on big distant ones like Iraq after August 2010 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gavinl on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-08-20.

[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 11 to 20 ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21.

[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 31 to 40 ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21.

[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 0 ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21.

[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 1 to 10 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21.

[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 1 to 10 ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21.

[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 1 to 10 ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21.

[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21.

[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 1 to 10 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21.

[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 1 to 10 ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21.

[US politics] Both the presidential and VP nominees for the Democratic party to be women ( 12% confidence; 20 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-09; known on 2020-08-21.

[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 0 ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21.

[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 0 ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21.

[US politics] Someone other than Donald Trump to win at least one state in the 2020 Republican presidential primary ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-16; known on 2020-08-27.

US Politics: Republican nominee for Vice President to be Mike Pence ( 68% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-08-27.

The United States, Canada, and Mexico will form the North American Union in August 2020. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2020-08-30.

I will weigh between 165-175 pounds by end of August 2020 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by avi on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-08-31.

Bernie Sanders will win the 2020 Dem. Presidential nomination ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-09-01.

On 2018-09-01, the Center for Human-Compatible AI will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of Open Philanthropy Project's relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the field ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2020-09-01.

Sowmya will do any work (not including sending messages) for EpidemicForecasting.org between June 5, 2020 and Aug 31, 2020. ( 30% confidence )

Created by katriel on 2020-06-07; known on 2020-09-01.