[SC2] SpeCial makes it out of Group A ( 34% confidence )

Created by Michael Dickens about 10 hours ago; known in 16 days.

There will be a shooting at a showing of Joker. ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JohnGreer 12 days ago; known in 19 days.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for September 2019 to exceed 50% ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known in 20 days.

Michael Bay is accused of sexual harassment/assault by at least one woman ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-06; known in 21 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] under $40 ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 22 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 22 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 22 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 22 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 22 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 22 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 22 days.

[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known in 22 days.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of October 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] October 2018 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known in 25 days.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of November 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] November 2018 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known in 25 days.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of October 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] September 2019 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known in 25 days.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of November 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] October 2019 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known in 25 days.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known in 29 days.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 48% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known in 29 days.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 41% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known in 29 days.

[Commodities] As of November 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of October 2019 ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known in 29 days.

Antonio Costa's government won't survive its entire term ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by JoaoEira on 2015-12-19; known on 2019-11-16.

[US politics] Andrew Yang to participate in the fifth Democratic primary debate (November 2019) ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-26; known on 2019-11-21.

Scott Galloway: SEC, state AG or other regulatory body investigations into We within 60 days ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by batemancapital 24 days ago; known on 2019-11-21.

[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for October 2019 to exceed 110 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-11-25.

Mauricio Macri will be re-elected president of Argentina. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Argentine_general_election ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Pablo Stafforini on 2019-07-25; known on 2019-11-25.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10 ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato 22 days ago; known on 2019-11-30.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11 ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato 22 days ago; known on 2019-11-30.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12 ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato 22 days ago; known on 2019-11-30.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 or more ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 22 days ago; known on 2019-11-30.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 22 days ago; known on 2019-11-30.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 3 or fewer ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 22 days ago; known on 2019-11-30.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7 ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 22 days ago; known on 2019-11-30.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5 ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 22 days ago; known on 2019-11-30.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 22 days ago; known on 2019-11-30.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8 ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato 22 days ago; known on 2019-11-30.

[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9 ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato 22 days ago; known on 2019-11-30.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in November for which data are published ( 48% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-12-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01.

The NDA will win the India's 2019 General Elections ( 86% confidence )

Created by Nve on 2018-02-13; known on 2019-12-01.

By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that standard marketing and outreach (e.g. online ads) result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01.

By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that the Doing Good Better book giveaway results on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01.

[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01.

By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that EAGx events result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.

I won't work somewhere where I have to wear something more fancy than jeans in the next 5 years. (Jason said he thinks I will) ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-03; known on 2019-12-03.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for October 2019 to exceed 50% ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-12-05.

[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07.