SETI@Home gets compromised by state-sponsored actor as means of getting access to its users computers ( 86% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09; known on 2021-10-07.

in december 2021, I'll be above 1150 since 2 consecutive months in my elo chess rating ( 80% confidence )

Created by Amaru on 2020-12-24; known on 2021-10-16.

SEC filings from Tesla motors still lists Lucid Motors/Atieva/whatever they change their name to as a competitor ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-20; known on 2021-10-20.

Lucid Motors/Atieva/whatever they change their name to in some way indicates Tesla motors is still a competitor ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-20; known on 2021-10-20.

econstudentlog.wordpress.com or its successor will cease to be updated ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-23; known on 2021-10-23.

bitcoin is no longer around, but zcash is ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-29; known on 2021-10-28.

Dune movie is released in October ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-11-01.

I will get a covid vaccine in by September 2021 ( 70% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-04; known on 2021-11-01.

Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by ren on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-11-01.

Conditional on winning the primary, Andrew Yang wins the NYC mayoral election. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-11-02.

EA Global London will be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again. ( 40% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-11-02.

Having survived CoViD-19 makes you immune for at least a year ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2020-04-18; known on 2021-11-03.

andrew yang becomes mayor of new york ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by htaussig on 2021-03-08; known on 2021-11-03.

Jérémie Zimmermann gets caught up in some kind of sex scandal (a la Julian Assange/Jacob Appelbaum) and is forced to withdraw from public life ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08; known on 2021-11-08.

Personal – My new job will be in the technology sector ( 45% confidence )

Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2021-11-15.

Personal – it will take me less than 2 months to find a job ( 85% confidence )

Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2021-11-15.

Personal – It will take me 1 month or less to find a new job ( 55% confidence )

Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2021-11-15.

USA Goaltimate Mixed Nationals will happen in November 2021 ( 70% confidence )

Created by Liface on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-11-30.

Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. ( 63% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by penten on 2016-12-01; known on 2021-12-01.

[Self] Tensing reveals my abs by December ( 8% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-12-01.

World share in science papers for the United States fell from 33% in 2003 to 27.8% in 2012.By 2021 it will be under 22.6%. — Web of Science, Thomson Reuters ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-10.

Bharat had 21,269 Web of science papers in 2003 to 45,639 in 2012.Bharat's world share will increase from 3.6% to a lower bound of 4.7%, 66,700 science papers by 2021. ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-10.

World currences will become truly “credit-based” by 2021. Smartcards with biometric IDs will be the forefront of a new era in currency marketing. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2021-12-16.

Brasil’s research papers in Web of Science increased in 2003 to 2012 from 1.7% to 2.7%. It's world share will be at least 3.7% by 2021. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-16.

By 2021, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped. ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by coyotespike on 2016-01-07; known on 2021-12-16.

Bharat will be ranked No3 in the world for science by 2022(ranked by Citable documents, Scopus DB). ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30; known on 2021-12-16.

Skip will run a goaltimate league in the San Francisco Bay Area in Fall 2021 ( 60% confidence )

Created by Liface on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-12-21.

In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-24; known on 2021-12-24.

Avatar 2 is released in December 2021 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-12-25.

1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use ( 85% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25.

The world share for Zhongguo in science papers has increased from 5.6% in 2003 to 14% in 2012, and will reach at least 22.4% in 2021. This will be higher than the US percentage. — Web of Science, Thomson Reuters ( 100% confidence )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-25.

Bharat will be ranked 7th in 2021, up from 13th in 2014 in the Nature Index.(Qualitative Science ranking) ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-10; known on 2021-12-25.

EU's world share in science papers declined from 38.5% in 2003 to 35.5% in 2012, and by 2021 will be under 32.5%. — Web of Science, Thomson Reuters ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-25.

Bharat will meet or exceed the Copenhagen pledge to reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 20–25% in 2020 compared to 2005 levels. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-04; known on 2021-12-25.

Bharat will be ranked 4th in the world by 2021 for zinc production. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2021-12-25.

1 person helicopter drones in commercial use ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25.

There will not be a pandemic by Christmas 2021 (in at least half of all countries on a political map, according to their governments) ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by wizzwizz4 on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-12-27.

In 10 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2021-12-28.

Diablo IV is released in 2021 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-12-31.

GPT-3 or comparably advanced AI will be used to generate in-game AI behavior, gameplay logic, and/or story/plot content in a AAA game. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2021-12-31.

0% corporate tax in US ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-17; known on 2021-12-31.

< 20,000 total cases of COVID-19 in New South Wales by the end of 2021 ( 85% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by sjy 23 days ago; known on 2021-12-31.

Data-centers get carbon taxed by the end of 2021 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by predoindk on 2019-08-25; known on 2021-12-31.

1-5-10-15 income tax passes in the US ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-17; known on 2021-12-31.

Blue Origin's New Glenn to enter commercial service by the end of 2021. ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-14; known on 2021-12-31.

Australia will open its borders to travellers from Canada, without an exemption or quarantine requirement, at some point in 2021 ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by sjy on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-12-31.

SPX reaches 4000 by the end of 2021 ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-10; known on 2021-12-31.

By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain. ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2018-12-01; known on 2021-12-31.

Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-09-12; known on 2022-01-01.