At least one Trump National Security Lottery is put on by the US federal government ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-25; known on 2023-12-31.

Resolute gets treble damages against Greenpeace thanks to RICO (from 2017 case) ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-08; known on 2023-12-31.

Have 5 users outside of our existing entrepreneurs on the funder rating database by dec 31, 2023 ( 90% confidence )

Created by kyleschutter 2 days ago; known on 2023-12-31.

Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 5 years ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2023-12-31.

Floating house will be complete with electric and furnishings by 12/31/2023 ( 70% confidence )

Created by kyleschutter 2 days ago; known on 2023-12-31.

>128 people actively communicating using RahisiBhasha ( 4% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09; known on 2023-12-31.

“Roe v. Wade will not celebrate a 50th anniversary.” ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-12-31.

“Patents will be abolished by at least two leading economies within the next 20 years for all areas except pharmaceuticals.” ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-12-31.

New license or license type (like Creative Commons) will be created to try preventing unauthorized use of one own's written, picture, or video material to train AI (eg. LLM) ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by technophil on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-12-31.

Pepsico rolls out 100 Tesla semi by 2023 https://archive.vn/wip/CR0qy ( 5% confidence )

Created by objclone on 2022-12-16; known on 2023-12-31.

Self-driving cars will replace human drivers on public road in at least one country before 2024. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-24; known on 2023-12-31.

The recession that began in 2008 in the US will not be “over” (arbitrarily defined by me as < 5% unemployment for three economic quarters) until 2023. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by deborama on 2011-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.

NFTs will reach mass adoption, but they will also create new layers of financial regulations, and will probably create a financial crash by 2024, where most victims will be from 3rd world countries. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by alfredbaudisch on 2022-01-04; known on 2024-01-01.

Conditioned on his political affiliation being outed before the year 2024, Mark Zuckerberg will be outed as a Republican ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-09; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01.

Geraldo Alckmin's (Brazilian vice-president-elect) role in 2023 will be regarded as one of Lula's right arms in governance ( 70% confidence )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-19; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the intercept of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to zero? ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Trump will be in prison or dead at the start of 2024. ( 5% confidence )

Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-14; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the median forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.18 days? ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

By 2024, either a) group isomorphism problem will be shown to be equivalent to the graph isomorphism problem or b) the group isomorphism will be shown to be in P. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.

By 2024 James F will publicly express regret at the amount of time he wasted investigating the claims of various religions. ( 75% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2014-03-08; known on 2024-01-01.

“That by 2024 “artificial” life emerging somewhere out of the soup of human technology will be given a Latin taxonomic name by biologists and others and declared viable for study.” ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the mean squared error of the predicted to the actual Brier score for the questions be better on logistic fit than the exponential fit, for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the median forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.64 days? ( 48% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

I will meet Miss Snow White in person again. ( 35% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2022-12-04; known on 2024-01-01.

A Chinese military vessel docks at Thitu by 2024 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2024-01-01.

'Borneo’s rainforests have been wiped from the map' by 2023 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

Stephanie Winston Wolkoff indicted before 2024 ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-07; known on 2024-01-01.

'2023 Dinosaur facsimiles are cloned from computer-generated DNA.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024. ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-03-09; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the slope of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 0.00305? ( 83% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Disclosure of interaction with intelligent aliens by January 1, 2024 ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2024-01-01.

Fracking will be banned in the United States by 2024 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lisalister on 2014-09-07; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the intercept of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 0.0388? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

American troops participate in an armed conflict in Venezuela before 2024 ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-02-25; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the slope of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to zero? ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the mean forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 1613.62 days? ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

I will meet Miss Jyväskylä in person again. ( 40% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2022-12-04; known on 2024-01-01.

I will compete studying general relativity to my satisfaction by end 2023 ( 35% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.

early election call in ontario ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the variance of the forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 478494147? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

Deepmind claims to pass the Turing test by the end of 2023 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-14; known on 2024-01-01.

'Turkey becomes self-sufficient in energy production' by 2023 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

Phthalate exposure in utero link to reduced intelligence to be confirmed/replicated by at least two other studies by January 1, 2024 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-15; known on 2024-01-01.

At least 40 states will have some form of legal cannabis by 2024 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2024-01-01.

By 2024, high frequency trading will be significantly reduced in the US (either by regulation or by diminishing profits) ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-20; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the variance of the forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 1.42e+49? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Tezos to surpass Ada/Cardano in marketcap at end of 2023 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2024-01-01.