Apple will release to the general public a merged, single version of their iOS and Mac OS operating systems by the end of 2022 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by separo on 2020-12-08; known on 2022-12-31.

I will get to 12% bodyfat by the end of 2022 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mckiev on 2022-04-22; known on 2022-12-31.

I picked a major professional goal ( 18% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mckiev on 2022-04-22; known on 2022-12-31.

Joe Rogan will not lose his Spotify podcast (e.g., Spotify will not ask him or force him to step away) in 2022. ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-12-31.

There will be a total of less than 5 school shootings in 2022, according to the NBC school shooting tracker. (see: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/school-shooting-tracker-n969951=2019&how-we-count=undefined) ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by adanvers on 2022-04-01; known on 2022-12-31.

Kliemannsland will have rebranded or closed by the end of 2022. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Leifa on 2022-06-27; known on 2022-12-31.

“In 2022 the US economy will no longer be held to be the world leader in global environmental degradation.” ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2022-12-31.

In 2022, The New York Times will follow up it's article on free speech in the U.S. by suggesting that mainstream news organizations should hire more conservative writers (affirmative action for conservatives). ( 80% confidence )

Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-12-31.

Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 ( 6% confidence; 20 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2022-12-31.

DRM-free games now selling more copies than DRM-encumbered ones ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-10; known on 2022-12-31.

GDP growth will not resume to the pre-covid trajectory. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Ygg on 2022-03-27; known on 2022-12-31.

Alaska bill SB140, which “would ban trans girls and women from participating in sports in accordance with their gender identity” will pass in 2022. ( 75% confidence )

Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-12-31.

China's Cap and Trade system still up and running ( 66% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-04; known on 2022-12-31.

I will end up opening that business with my teacher before the end of 2022 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2022-12-31.

Some technology invented after 2017 that actually scares me. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-29; known on 2022-12-31.

Hollow Knight: Silksong releases in 2022. ( 55% confidence )

Created by galaga on 2022-02-12; known on 2022-12-31.

Conditional on vaccine mandates being enacted, my sister will get vaccinated by end of 2022 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sty.silver on 2021-12-05; known on 2022-12-31.

Le premier clip de Cent-quatorze sera fini en 2022. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2022-01-21; known on 2022-12-31.

[Marginal Revolution] Facebook Credits, or some other pseudo-currency, will become widely accepted for offline transactions throughout the world within ten years. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-03-02; known on 2022-12-31.

The US will have have laws or regulations to outlaw normal people destroying drones by end of 2022 (10 years from now) ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 33 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2022-12-31.

Cyberattack on US occurs in 2022 and is attributed to Russia by the US government by the end of the year. ( 21% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-01-26; known on 2022-12-31.

World – Will any new country become members of NATO in 2022? ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-25; known on 2023-01-01.

Politics, Finland – Finland starts process to join NATO by end of 2022 ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2023-01-01.

The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023 ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-27; known on 2023-01-01.

World – A country not currently known to have nuclear weapons tests a functioning nuclear warhead in 2022 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01.

World – Russia successfully invades Ukraine and China invades Taiwan by the end of 2022. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known on 2023-01-01.

COVID – There is a new dominant strain of COVID replacing Omicron by end of 2022, and it is derived from Omicron. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01.

EA – The most cost effective charity on GiveWell's cost effectiveness spreadsheet is a Vitamin A supplementation charity at the end of 2022 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01.

Bolsonaro manterá o mandato presidencial até o final do período para o qual foi eleito. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2019-03-28; known on 2023-01-01.

It is legal and possible to anonymously buy recreational Cannabis in Germany by December 31 2022 (at least one actual legal shop/seller, can be online) ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by M on 2021-11-30; known on 2023-01-01.

One of Italy/Spain/Portugal/Germany will leave the EU before 2023 ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.

[Covid origin:] The virus is definitively found to be a bioweapon, released deliberately or accidently by 2023 (<1% chance) ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.

I will complete studying general relativity to my satisfaction by end 2022. ( 50% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2022-01-01; known on 2023-01-01.

'Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care' by 2022 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.

'Nanotech clothing enters the mass market' by 2022 ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.

World of Warcraft will be shut dow before 2023 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by silacoid on 2015-08-05; known on 2023-01-01.

Uber's valuation to be less than half that of its 2015 valuation by 2022 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-09; known on 2023-01-01.

Russian troops boots on the ground in Estonia in active combat operations ( 37% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2023-01-01.

BFR to launch before 2022. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2023-01-01.

Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01.

Chen-Ning Yang to become a centenarian ( 20% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2023-01-01.

assassinations are attempted against both Georgia senators ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by technillogue on 2021-01-14; known on 2023-01-01.

'Piezoelectric nanowires are appearing in high-end products' by 2022 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.

Ben: In 2022, in the US, >50% of the top 5% of citizens by income who use computers will not be using a mouse / keyboard. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-07-09; known on 2023-01-01.

Astronomers will detect a planet where alcohol is thought to rain from the sky. ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-07-12; known on 2023-01-01.

There will be more janitors in the U.S. in 2022 than there will be in 2012 (http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm ) ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2023-01-01.

SpaceX sends a passenger flight to Mars by 2023. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-22; known on 2023-01-01.