Nous continuons la traditions des week-end en ville ( 90% confidence )

Created by Medea on 2020-07-09; known on 2025-07-09.

facebook block capability will digitally alter pictures to erase evidence that the person who's blocking you was ever present ( 53% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-22; known on 2025-07-22.

Joe Biden will die within five years. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-25; known on 2025-07-25.

Donald Trump will die within five years. ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-25; known on 2025-07-25.

Inflation adjusted GDP in California will be statistically significantly less than the rest of the U.S. over the next 10 years. Paired ANOVA, p < 0.05, based on the same source that led to this data or equivalent http://www.lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/D ( 5% confidence )

Created by Porejide on 2015-07-25; known on 2025-07-25.

a new world record in the men's 5000 meters will be set between now and 2025-08-01: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5000_metres_world_record_progression ( 33% confidence )

Created by finback on 2020-08-20; known on 2025-08-01.

Universal basic income will be adopted in at least 50% of the G20 countries within 10 years ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by sflicht on 2015-08-07; known on 2025-08-08.

Russia to invade Israel by August 10th 2025 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-07; known on 2025-08-10.

I will not be married within the next 5 years ( 80% confidence )

Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2025-08-12.

Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. ( 14% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by quanticle on 2015-08-14; known on 2025-08-15.

Polar Bears will go extinct in the wild before 2025 ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2025-08-16.

Right-leaning political parties, relative to the political parties currently in power, will control a greater number of majority positions of executive or (all) legislative branches of EU-member countries than at present. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Afforess on 2015-09-01; known on 2025-09-01.

beeminder.com will operate through 2025-09-01 ( 60% confidence )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-26; known on 2025-09-01.

COVID has become the new War on Terror. It has been used to justify increased authoritarian encroachment, and it is still ongoing. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by deangc on 2021-09-10; known on 2025-09-10.

The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Deepak on 2020-09-16; known on 2025-09-16.

VW.OS is canceled or sold+renamed in 5 years ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2020-09-21; known on 2025-09-20.

“within 15 years, Google will be buying what is left of Oracle” —imbcmdth ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-22; known on 2025-09-22.

In the next 10 years Columbus Day will stop being a US federal holiday, or will be changed to Indigenous People's Day or some other non-Columbus-themed alternative. ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-13; known on 2025-10-13.

Germany abolishes “EEG-Umlage” by 2025 [Lindner promise] ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2022-01-02; known on 2025-11-01.

Venezuela to go to war with at least one other country before November 1, 2025. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-25; known on 2025-11-02.

Nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan in the next 10 years ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-06; known on 2025-11-07.

Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-17.

HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-30.

Bharat's life expectancy at birth will improve over the next decades, from 71.7 years in 2025-2030 to 75.9 years in 2045-2050 and 84.6 years in 2095-2100. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30; known on 2025-12-01.

“The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public.” ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-12-07.

Great Green Wall, a land restoration programme in the African Sahel over the next 10 years. Aims to restore more than 50 million hectares of land. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2025-12-12.

Gangs and gang-affiliations will be outlawed and considered terrorist organisations by 2025. ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-12-16.

Contact Sports (football,boxing, kick boxing, most martial arts) will be outlawed in 60% of the world by 2025 due to a medical discovery. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-12-16.

Holographic Television (HTV) will be a trillion dollar industry by 2025. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-12-16.

At least one Nobel Laureate in Physics will have become a centenarian by 2025 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2025-12-16.

Bharat's millionaires,multi millionaires, UHNWI ($30 M+), centa-millionaires(100 M+), billionaires will at least double from 2015-2025. — The Wealth Report,Knight Frank. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-09; known on 2025-12-25.

ExxonMobil has predicted that global demand for coal will peak in about 2025 ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-04; known on 2025-12-25.

Zhongguo's output of greenhouse gases will peak in 2025, 5 years ahead of the pledged 2030 date. ( 96% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-04; known on 2025-12-25.

Biometric clothing will be a trillion dollar market by 2025. ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-12-27.

Bharat cumulative installed electricity capacity will be over 600 GW by 2025 ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2025-12-28.

Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. ( 86% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-29; known on 2025-12-29.

Tiger Woods will win another PGA tournament before he turns 50. ( 90% confidence )

Created by sh33lz3bub on 2018-03-05; known on 2025-12-30.

China will attempt an invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025. ( 20% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by najdorf on 2021-04-09; known on 2025-12-31.

Western Australia will secede from the Commonwealth of Australia by the end of 2025. ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by najdorf on 2013-02-06; known on 2025-12-31.

Lucas and I will have written a book on negation in event semantics by the end of 2025 ( 65% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-07; known on 2025-12-31.

“Major online internet useage research firms will record that over 3 billion people in 2025 managed their incoming and outgoing digital information using a graphical user interface based on Quadrant Theory – as described in Marshall McLuhan's “Tetrad” mod ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-12-31.

60% or more of the population of any one country will use public transit more frequently than driving by 2025 ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2025-12-31.

Demographer Sanjeev Sanyal of Deutsche Bank predicts The Big Shrink. World’s fertility rate at replacement rate in 2025 World population peak 2055 at 8.7 billion and decline to 8.0 billion by 2100. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2025-12-31.

[Dark Matter and Dark Energy are not dis discovered within the next four years] If this occurs interest in Dark Fluid theories grows greatly (size of the Wikipedia page and the number of references to Popular Sci articles both double within a year of the non-discovery). ( 50% confidence )

Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2025-12-31.

Indonesia will be ranked 8 on the IMF's GDP at current prices ranking of the world's largest economies, as they already are at PPP valuation. The UK and France will be forced down to No 9 and 10. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-10; known on 2025-12-31.

[Dark Matter and Dark Energy are not dis discovered within the next four years] Dark Matter and Dark Energy are not discovered within the next four years ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2025-12-31.

At least one chief executive of any large fossil fuel / oil / mining company will be assassinated before 2025 due to ( perceived ) culpability. ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by predoindk on 2019-08-25; known on 2025-12-31.

By the end of 2025, in Luxembourg, there will be some form of an autonomous taxi-fleet that can take you from rue Michel Lentz Strassen to rue Charles Tornaco Luxembourg. (chosen more or less randomly) ( 65% confidence )

Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-05-28; known on 2025-12-31.

“I predict that global warming denialists such as MIT professor Richard Lindzen will be shown to be wrong over the next 20 years as global warming continues. Specifically, I believe the scientific consensus that temperatures are likely to increase by .3 d ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-12-31.