PredictionBook: Upcoming Predictions

Lil Nas X's debut album (not his EP) will peak at #1 on the Billboard 200 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by bendini on 2019-07-12; known on 2021-07-07.

British variant is >30% more transmissible than preexisting variant. ( 90% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-16; known on 2021-07-16.

Uprising/civil strife/coup/etc in latvia makes international headlines ( 59% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2021-07-24.

Russian “peacekeepers” on the ground in Latvia ( 59% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2021-07-24.

Eastern Latvia becomes its own country/Latvia splits into at least 2 countries ( 35% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2021-07-24.

Apple will lose all its *NIX developer goodwill and become the equivalent of Microsoft — hated but a necessary evil. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by kyst on 2011-07-28; known on 2021-07-28.

[Politics, India] Actor Kamalhassan wins election-deciding number of seats in TamilNadu 2021 elections ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-16; known on 2021-07-31.

[Politics, India] Actor Rajinikanth wins election-deciding number of seats in TamilNadu 2021 elections ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-15; known on 2021-07-31.

at least 1 person executed for tor use, tor project social contract pivot not ruled out as contributing factor ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-04; known on 2021-07-31.

By July 2021, China will invade Taiwan. The invasion will take longer than anticipated and as a result China will use biological weapons. The USA and EU will do nothing. ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Random on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-07-31.

< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by kjaques on 2020-07-31; known on 2021-07-31.

I will have 1 or more friend daylios with tyler in July of this year ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-14; known on 2021-08-01.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-04-10 ( 75% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-05-19 ( 95% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-26 ( 50% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-13 ( 25% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01.

[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-03 ( 5% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01.

India and China's border dispute escalates to a battle fought more than 100 km from the border ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-03; known on 2021-08-03.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] the United States ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] France ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] Cuba ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] a member of the former Soviet Union ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09.

First virtual tourism in 7 years. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2021-08-13.

“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones” —Marc Andreessen ( 75% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2021-08-20.

Triplebyte will no longer exist as a company on August 20 2021, and if sold will have sold for less than $48.1M. ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by enolan on 2020-03-21; known on 2021-08-20.

Everybody (who wants to) is vaccinated against CoViD-19 in Germany by September ( 20% confidence )

Created by qznc on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-09-01.

Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by September ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-09-01.

I am going to produce more than 20 kg tomatoes ( 70% confidence )

Created by Alk on 2021-04-06; known on 2021-09-01.

“Ten years from now, U.S. public libraries will circulate more than a billion print books each year” —Walt Crawford ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-12; known on 2021-09-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $3 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $5 million in some of the animal welfare groups groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $1 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.

Open Phil makes a grant on wild animal suffering within five years. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-07; known on 2021-09-07.

A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 30% confidence; 20 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10.

All my friends will be back at school next semester ( 70% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-06; known on 2021-09-10.

Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter. ( 22% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2021-09-14.

[stocks] Disney up ca 10% inom 1 år ( 70% confidence )