Upcoming Predictions
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The composite American from 2014-2024 will be more supportive of abortion restrictions than the composite American from 2003-2013. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-21; known on 2025-01-01.
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Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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yourmorals.org to last through 2025 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 —Tachi Yamada ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, a living multicellular organism will be printed using 3D printing technology. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.” ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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Marijuana will be legal by 2025 ( 65% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-08; known on 2025-01-01.
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Petabyte storage devices are available in 2024 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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'African elephants are on the brink of extinction' in 2024 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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The TV show “The Walking Dead” will have at least 10 completed seasons before 2025. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Mati on 2015-03-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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Ireland will legalize Marijuana between 2021 and 2024 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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'2024 Infrared signals are detected coming from the centre of the Galaxy, obviously the product of a technologically advanced civilisation. All attempts to decipher them fail.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2025-01-01.
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By January 1, 2025, it will be proven that any odd perfect number is divisible by the sixth power of some prime. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-24; known on 2025-01-01.
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Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 100m. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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“The concept of time as a linear dimension will be replaced by one of time as a polarity between content and context.” ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-01-01.
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Usain Bolt sets a new PB in the 100m. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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Magnesium infused with silicon carbide nanoparticles will be used as major structural component for cars by 2025. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26; known on 2025-01-01.
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A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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UNSONG was created to control the spread of names (in the same way we might want to restrict anthrax or AI research) ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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A supernova in the Miky Way will first be detected by it's neutrino and gravitational wave emission, prior to it's brightening allowing observation by optical telescopes. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by AdamSmith on 2016-04-30; known on 2025-01-01.
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parabiosis will be demonstrated to increase average human lifespan ( 45% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2025-01-01.
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Trump massive crackdown on comedians. Bill Maher imprisoned(for comedy show) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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Usain Bolt sets a new personal best in the 200m. ( 31% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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The Long Range Strike Bomber will cost at least $846 million per plane (in FY2016 dollars). ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-10-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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Amazon will launch a consumer-facing courier service that competes with the likes of UPS and FedEx by 2025. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-12-21; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, there will be no 28th Amendment to the Constitution of the USA ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, the volume of robocalls will exceed the volume of live calls on the regular phone system ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-16; known on 2025-01-01.
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UNSONG was created to incentivize name discovery, the same way that patents work for drugs in the real world, with the intention of providing an arsenal to fight Hell with ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 200m. ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, the states will have voted on at least one constitutional amendment to cede US federal power to a global government.” ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01.
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Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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By January 1st, 2025, the US employment/population ratio will be 60% or under. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.” ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01.
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By January 1, 2025 at least one OECD country with a population of at least 5 million people will have more than half of all cars be self-driving. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, The Aether Physics Model will not have replaced quantum physics and the theory of relativity as the standard model.” ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. ( 30% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists.” ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, at least 25 of the 30 stocks currently in the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be dropped from the index and replaced with other companies.” ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-01-01.
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Ana is misleading to Aaron about the 'marriage' name in some significant way – e.g. it maybe is not symmetric. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. ( 79% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 72% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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Real Madrid would have won the champions league at least 6 times by the year 2025 ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Seyi on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, The giant impact hypothesis will no longer be the dominant scientific hypothesis for the formation of the Moon.” ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.” ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. ( 9% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2025 ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.” ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.” ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-01-01.