$AMZN 2019 end of year price >= $2100 ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by objclone on 2019-01-09; known in 20 days.

BTC will end 2019 higher than it started (priced in USD). ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by bshih on 2019-02-27; known in 20 days.

The Brexit Party to win more than 10 seats in a 2019 general election ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-04-22; known in 20 days.

The Independent Group (TIG), or its successor party, to win more than 10 seats in a 2019 general election ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-08; known in 20 days.

China will increase their cap on solar production in 2019 to at least 20 GW before the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2019-01-26; known in 20 days.

Pirate Bay will still exist in its name by 2020 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known in 20 days.

Satoshi Nakamoto will have at one point been the world's richest person by 11:59 pm, December 31st, 2019. ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by dchristie on 2018-01-12; known in 21 days.

zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2020 ( 19% confidence )

Created by bobpage on 2016-10-06; known in 21 days.

Conditional on using computers by the end of the 2019, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do ( 85% confidence )

Created by bobpage on 2017-04-12; known in 21 days.

Joaquín Guzmán Loera (El Chapo) will escape from prison again before 2020 ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by bobpage on 2016-01-09; known in 21 days.

I will move before 2020 ( 20% confidence )

Created by bobpage on 2019-01-03; known in 21 days.

A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 79% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known in 21 days.

By the year 2020, the band Paradise Fears will consistently receive over 1 million views on every video they upload. ( 70% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known in 21 days.

By 2020, there will have been at least 5 assassinations that were predicted by a prediction market (and known as such). ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known in 21 days.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly negative ( 30% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known in 21 days.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately positive ( 4% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known in 21 days.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] neutral/meh/don't care/his government didn't last long enough for me to have an opinion ( 25% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known in 21 days.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly negative ( 10% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known in 21 days.

[Personal – my weight in kg is] <90 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known in 21 days.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly positive ( 15% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known in 21 days.

[Personal – my weight in kg is] <80 ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known in 21 days.

[Personal – my weight in kg is] <75 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known in 21 days.

[Personal – my weight in kg is] <100 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known in 21 days.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly positive ( 1% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known in 21 days.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] moderately negative ( 15% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known in 21 days.

Personal: I still read reddit frequently ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known in 21 days.

[Personal – my weight in kg is] <95 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known in 21 days.

[Personal – my weight in kg is] <85 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known in 21 days.

At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020. ( 57% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known in 21 days.

An off-planet Playboy Club is operational before 2020. ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known in 21 days.

2020: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known in 21 days.

2020: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known in 21 days.

Vladimir Putin is not the President of Russia at the end of this prediction. ( 49% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by kuudes on 2016-02-07; known in 21 days.

The RTX 2080 Ti will see an official price reduction (MSRP) of at least 300$ before the end of 2019. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known in 21 days.

I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2020 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by bobpage on 2017-06-19; known in 21 days.

Before 2020, Chromium will go closed-source, or Google/Alphabet/Alphabet subsidiary employees will generally stop contributing code to the open-source Chromium project ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2016-02-09; known in 21 days.

The Navier-Stokes Millennium prize will be awarded before 2020-01-01 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-05-30; known in 21 days.

the Large Aral Sea gone in 2019 ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known in 21 days.

The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race. —Ray Kurzweil ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 21 days.

“the largest area of impact from technological change over the next decade will come from increasing communications bandwidth.” —Michael Vassar ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known in 21 days.

“Within ten years there will be another $200 billion+ Wall Street Bailout” —James Miller ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known in 21 days.

“Global oil demand exceeds 100m barrels per day” in 2019 ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known in 21 days.

Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.). —Ray Kurzweil ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 21 days.

A $1,000 personal computer has as much raw power as the human brain. —Ray Kurzweil ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 21 days.

People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 21 days.

'Chinese GDP on a PPP basis will be roughly comparable to that of the US and the EU (i.e. within 25%)' in 2020 —Shane Legg ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known in 21 days.