0% corporate tax in US ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-17; known on 2021-12-31.

1-5-10-15 income tax passes in the US ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-17; known on 2021-12-31.

Blue Origin's New Glenn to enter commercial service by the end of 2021. ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-14; known on 2021-12-31.

Data-centers get carbon taxed by the end of 2021 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by predoindk on 2019-08-25; known on 2021-12-31.

Starship reaches space by December 31 this year ( 40% confidence )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-12-31.

Australia will open its borders to travellers from Canada, without an exemption or quarantine requirement, at some point in 2021 ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by sjy on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-12-31.

By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain. ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2018-12-01; known on 2021-12-31.

Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-09-12; known on 2022-01-01.

Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2019-08-12; known on 2022-01-01.

Tech – In 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI? ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2022-01-01.

[Next Coalition in Germany:] Other ( 1% confidence )

Created by amadeu 24 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

[Next Coalition in Germany:] SPD+CDU/CSU ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu 24 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

[Next Coalition in Germany:] SPD+Greens+FDP ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu 24 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

[Next Coalition in Germany:] CDU/CSU+Greens+FDP ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by amadeu 24 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

COVID, UK – UK exceeds a seven-day average of 100 deaths per day again (after this prediction) before the end of 2021. ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2022-01-01.

Rupert Murdoch will still lead Fox News after his 90th birthday ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2022-01-01.

Israel and Egypt at war by 2022 ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-16; known on 2022-01-01.

>1 million american refugees have entered canadian borders ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2022-01-01.

Proof that P=NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

First Tesla Cybertruck delivered to customer in 2021. ( 45% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $100k ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

'Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft' in 2021 ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01.

There won't be a significant automobile virus sighting ( 13% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known on 2022-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project's December 2016 grant to Impact Justice's Restorative Justice Project will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level (United States) by 2020-01-01 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2022-01-01.

Eric Weinstein said “I'm going to put out Geometric Unity in written form” (in 2021, new years resolution) here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRmbQP6ho4c&ab_channel=DrBrianKeating. I say it will not happen. ( 75% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2021-01-05; known on 2022-01-01.

Between now and 2022, a religion, subsect, or religious movement will be founded and grow to over 10,000 followers that has explicit ties to Judaism/Christianity/Islam, but rejects the omnipotence of God. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2011-12-03; known on 2022-01-01.

One of the cyberwarfare viruses (Stuxnet, Flame, ??) will spill out and hit civilian US computers in a widespread way before 2022. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-30; known on 2022-01-01.

>=10 IEDs used on US highways in 2021 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-01; known on 2022-01-01.

First SLS to fly by end of 2021. ( 31% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01.

New Glenn to fly at least once in 2021 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01; known on 2022-01-01.

[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $20k ( 70% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $200 ( 95% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

Waymo self-driving car service open to the public in a city outside of Arizona in 2021. ( 20% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 38% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01.

SpaceX starship has a successful test launch in which it lands without major issues (defined as causing enough damage to the ship that it can’t be reused) in 2021. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

someone markets a robotic 'teddy fuxpin' terry ruxpin clone. ( 73% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-18; known on 2022-01-01.

OoTS: MitD is the Snarl. ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-06-30; known on 2022-01-01.

Language model released that uses 10x the # of parameters used by by GPT-3 in 2021. ( 40% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

New Glenn rocket to fly putting a payload into orbit by end of 2021. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01.

Kobe Bryant will own a professional sports team outside the US within the next 12 years (till 2024) ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2022-01-01.

I will remain below 67kg at end 2021. Follow on from prediction that I will be under 67kg by end February 2021. Currently 68.6kg. ( 65% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2021-01-05; known on 2022-01-01.

Another company besides Waymo's self-driving car service open to the public (anywhere) in 2021. ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

'Water crisis in southwest USA' in 2021 ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01.

Number of people in the world living in extreme global poverty is below 743,336,050 (as measured by https://worldpoverty.io/map) on January 1st, 2022. ( 95% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

New Shepard to fly with people in 2021 ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01; known on 2022-01-01.

Lebron James will average a triple double in an NBA season during his career ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2022-01-01.

Microsoft buys Cloudflare ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-24; known on 2022-01-01.

CPUs switch from silicon to carbon nanotubes by 2022 ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01.

Proof that P≠NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-03; known on 2022-01-01.