Tech – There is strongly implicating evidence that someone did something causing the loss of >=1 QALY of life in order to profit on Manifold Markets by deadline ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-07-02.

ULA's Vulcan rocket to launch by July 1, 2022 ( 72% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-24; known on 2022-07-02.

Barnes & Noble still exists and operates at least 10 book stores ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Leo on 2019-07-05; known on 2022-07-05.

The subreddit PurplePillDebate will hit 100,000 subscribers by July 8th 2022 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by MarkFreed on 2022-02-12; known on 2022-07-08.

Open Phil makes a grant to support clean meat within 5 years. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-07-11; known on 2022-07-11.

I will visit Colombia in July ( 80% confidence )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-07-16.

US govt won't file criminal charges against a C-level executive of an American bank in America for the next 10 years ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-23; known on 2022-07-23.

Jeannie Marie Wagner will not admit she is wrong when revisit topic in six months https://www.facebook.com/harry.mok.3/posts/10159370606954807?comment_id=10159412084094807 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-02; known on 2022-08-01.

Fin du pass sanitaire/vaccinal le 31 juillet 2022 pour les bars et restaurants en France métropolitaine ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by 0uGiL on 2022-01-23; known on 2022-08-01.

Israel will bomb Iran in the next year. (airstrike/icbm etc. launched directly by the IDF or another Israeli entity) ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Rigulel on 2021-08-02; known on 2022-08-02.

All the officers charged in the George Floyd case will be exonerated or there will be a hung jury. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by unseen on 2020-08-05; known on 2022-08-04.

By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-04; known on 2022-08-04.

I will drop out of my PhD program after 2 years ( 30% confidence )

Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2022-08-12.

North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by limbo on 2020-09-02; known on 2022-08-13.

New Zealand will open borders to vaccinated travelers by August 2022 ( 70% confidence )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known on 2022-08-16.

Within the next ten years, Kepler 36b & Kepler 36c will be theorized in a peer-reviewed publication to be a case of planetary enucleation—b being the dense former core of c. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-21; known on 2022-08-21.

The LW user account “Grognor” will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-08-27; known on 2022-08-28.

Investors in the WeWork IPO will lose more than 50% of their investment within 3 years ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by sjy on 2019-08-18; known on 2022-09-01.

Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2022-09-02.

Hans Dehmelt will become a centenarian ( 20% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2022-09-16.

BTC priced at or above $25,000 five years from today ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-09-16; known on 2022-09-16.

No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2022-09-24.

It will be just as easy to view copyrighted films and tv shows online (with or without permission) in 10 years as it is now. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2022-09-26.

Within 10 years I will be able to buy a 3D printed object at a local mall. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2022-09-26.

[Personal] Student paper on total difference labeling/total difference chromatic numbers to be published by September 25, 2022 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-05; known on 2022-09-26.

I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2022-09-29.

Alex Azzi Prediction: He will earn 100k / mo $ PROFIT on the jewelry brand by October 2022 ( 70% confidence )

Created by maneesh on 2021-09-03; known on 2022-10-01.

The SpaceX BFS to Mars missions will not stick to the schedule announced at IAC 2017. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2022-10-01.

CDC official count of at least one million official covid deaths in the US by October 1, 2022. ( 85% confidence; 25 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-14; known on 2022-10-02.

World War III by October 1, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-10-02.

D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 10 years ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2022-10-06.

Within ten years, a planet will be discovered in at least one of the (liquid water) habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-17; known on 2022-10-18.

Within ten years, at least one planet of < 3 Earth masses will be discovered in one of the liquid water habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-17; known on 2022-10-18.

I've spent 200 hours on one particular project ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mckiev 26 days ago; known on 2022-10-22.

No human genome will be completely sequenced in the next 5 years. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aoeu on 2017-10-23; known on 2022-10-24.

Portuguese government still provides free Covid vaccines by 1st Nov 2022 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by LouisLC 4 days ago; known on 2022-11-01.

Republicans will win back both chambers of congress in 2022 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2022-11-08.

The user 8 will not write a single line of APL code that is relevant to his project. ( 99% confidence )

Created by bingbingwahoo on 2021-11-12; known on 2022-11-10.

In 5 years programmers will be expected to write formally proven programs to the same or more extent as they're expected to write tests today ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jach on 2017-11-17; known on 2022-11-17.

In a year, I will not regret getting into defi ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by claerity on 2021-11-23; known on 2022-11-23.

Our Ford Focus battery lasts 100,000 miles ( 90% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2022-11-30.

Eduardo Leite (PSDB) se candidata à presidência nas eleições de 2022. ( 65% confidence )

Created by rapinoinfeliz on 2020-07-22; known on 2022-12-01.

Lula will be elected Brazil's next president in 2022. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by okayspm on 2021-10-04; known on 2022-12-11.

Zhongguo will be a high income country by 2022 ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-28; known on 2022-12-12.

The New Development Bank will make more loans in billions of dollars per year, than the IMF by 2022. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-15; known on 2022-12-16.

Jair Bolsonaro not impeached until the end of his mandate ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2022-12-16.

palmeiras não será tricampeão da libertadores ( 100% confidence )

Created by eduardomarciano on 2022-01-29; known on 2022-12-16.

Malnutrition trends in Bharat: Stunting -Under 3 children in 2022 will be under 32.5%. ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2022-12-17.

A Star Wars movie is released in December 2022 ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2022-12-25.