[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Qyburn ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 28 days.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Tormund Giantsbane ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 28 days.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Jorah Mormont ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 28 days.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Jon Snow ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 28 days.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Samwell Tarly ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 28 days.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Bran Stark ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 28 days.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Gilly ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 28 days.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Night King ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 28 days.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] JS/DT's child ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 28 days.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Brienne of Tarth ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 28 days.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Jaime Lannister ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 28 days.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Bronn ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 28 days.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Theon Greyjoy ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 28 days.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Davos Seaworth ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 28 days.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Yara Greyjoy ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 28 days.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Sandor “The Hound” Clegane ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 28 days.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Missandei ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 28 days.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Petyr Baelish/Littlefinger ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 28 days.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Gendry ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 28 days.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Tyrion Lannister ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 12 days ago; known in 28 days.

The Brexit Party to come first in Britain in the 2019 European Parliament elections ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-02-09; known on 2019-05-27.

German Humanist Party will get at least one seat in the European Parliament 2019 ( 20% confidence )

Created by ZeitPolizei on 2018-02-04; known on 2019-05-27.

[Politics] Right-populists to gain in EU parliamentary election ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-05-27.

Blue Origin's New Shepard to carry humans past Karman line (100km altitude) in the next 12 months. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-30; known on 2019-05-30.

Politics, US – In Timbs v. Indiana, the Supreme Court rules that the Excessive Fines Clause of the Eighth Amendment applies to states. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-11; known on 2019-05-30.

Virgin Galactic to pass Karman line (100km altitude) within 12 months. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-30; known on 2019-05-30.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for April 2019 to exceed 50% ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 19 days ago; known on 2019-05-31.

[Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor to be released, conditional on Canadian government] extraditing Meng Wanzhou to US ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-06-01.

[Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor to be released, conditional on Canadian government] still holding Meng Wanzhou ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-06-01.

[Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor to be released, conditional on Canadian government] releasing Meng Wanzhou ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-06-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in May for which data are published ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-06-01.

BJP will win no greater than 220 seats in 2019 general elections. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by roshni on 2014-10-26; known on 2019-06-01.

[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through May EOM ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-01.

I will work for Unity Technologies within a year of graduation from University of Washington ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by npcuck on 2017-01-06; known on 2019-06-01.

A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2018 ( 34% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2019-06-01.

Politics, Central America – Before 1 July 2019, Daniel Ortega ceases to be president of Nicaragua. ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known on 2019-06-01.

Felix Sater testifies publicly before the end of May ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 19 days ago; known on 2019-06-01.

[Politics] NDA to win a majority of seats in Indian general election ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-06-01.

A confirmed dip of at least 10% in the brightness of Tabby's Star (KIC 8462852) will be observed. ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-05-27; known on 2019-06-01.

[Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before May 2019 EOM ( 64% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-06-01.

Indonesia will devolve into a full-fledged islamic theocracy or decay into civil war-torn provinces largely dominated by Sharia law till the end of Ramadan 2019. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Neonblitz on 2017-05-23; known on 2019-06-04.

Merlon intelligence will raise another round of funding within two years ( 60% confidence )

Created by Peteris on 2017-06-05; known on 2019-06-05.

[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw record-high attendance, assuming it is not canceled ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-05.

[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw fewer than 100,000 people, assuming it is not canceled ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-05.

[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] be canceled ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-05.

[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw record-low attendance, assuming it is not canceled ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-05.

[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] under $40 ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07.