Upcoming Predictions
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Meet my ambitious 1-rep max strength goals: Barbell Squat: body weight x 2 | Barbell Deadlift: body weight x 2.4 | Pull-up / Chin-up: body weight x 1.5 | ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by arun on 2018-05-28; known in 14 days.
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I will still have a bivalvegan, or mostly bivalvegan (defined as buying meat/dairy products, if at all, perhaps once/twice a month) diet in three years time. ( 75% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-12-10; known in 14 days.
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BTCUSD will exceed 20000 during 2018 ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2018-01-17; known in 14 days.
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Amazon will choose either Northern Virginia or Dallas as their HQ2 ( 50% confidence )
Created by retran on 2018-01-31; known in 14 days.
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Britain will leave the EU as a “soft Brexit”, keeping the four freedoms. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-06-20; known in 14 days.
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“Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth.” ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known in 14 days.
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There will be a relevant (>10% vote in any election) third political party in the US before the end of 2018. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by artir on 2016-03-12; known in 14 days.
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Vector will complete multiple successful orbital launches in 2018. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-15; known in 14 days.
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Cyber attack on UK with Russia clearly identified as culprit in 2018, described as retaliation for Syria bombing. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-16; known in 14 days.
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Legal battles over forehead penises, and the rights of the young rebels who choose to have them, begin. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-03; known in 14 days.
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President Trump impeached for conspiring with enemies (russia or otherwise) ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-23; known in 14 days.
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US Supreme Court legalizes explicit Vote Buying [Dataclysm] ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-08; known in 14 days.
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I get my damage deposit back for my apartment (conditional on moving out / deadline extended as needed) ( 11% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-03; known in 14 days.
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US health-care expenditure is less than or equal to $5 trillion in 2018. —orthonormal ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known in 14 days.
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Sign language becomes 3rd official language of Canada ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-25; known in 14 days.
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Flamanville 3 reactor startup ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-05; known in 14 days.
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Moore's law stops ; transistor count on intel CPUs/GPUs hasn't doubled in 18 months ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-03; known in 14 days.
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Moore's law stops : bitcoin hashrate has not doubled in past 18 months. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-03; known in 14 days.
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Half of world GDP is China. ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-17; known in 14 days.
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Some new form factor than cell phones/handheld robots start to credibly threaten the dominance of cell phones/handheld robots/laptops/tablets/desktop for near term future ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-18; known in 14 days.
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The Matrix “The Next Generation” / prequels released by Warner Bros ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01; known in 14 days.
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3-4 “do everything” companies control 80%+ of hashrate of main cryptocurrency(Currently bitcoin) (ie companies that don't just provide hashes but large stack of services) ( 62% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-03; known in 14 days.
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[The monarch of the United Kingdom on 12/31/18 is] Elizabeth II ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known in 14 days.
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Sensors/cameras in london public sewers, at least one UK citizen fined for putting tampons down the toilet ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-22; known in 14 days.
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Created by gringer on 2017-10-12; known in 14 days.
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LUST ICO turns out to be a scam ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-03; known in 14 days.
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Created by gringer on 2017-10-12; known in 14 days.
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Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. ( 48% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-08; known in 14 days.
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Fessenheim Nuclear Power Plant closes ( 73% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-05; known in 14 days.
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US health-care expenditure >=$6 trillion in 2018 —orthonormal ( 39% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known in 14 days.
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Improve my flexibility enough to touch my toes ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by arun on 2018-05-28; known in 14 days.
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NASA will not announce “Voyager 1 has entered interstellar space” again within the next 5 years ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mfb on 2013-09-13; known in 14 days.
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Chandrayaan-2 (चन्द्रयान-२) 2nd lunar exploration mission. Launched by GSLV includes a lunar orbiter, rover and a lander landing on the moon and exploring. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known in 14 days.
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HBO's Game of Thrones is not cancelled before covering all ASoIaF books (including upcoming ones). ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known in 14 days.
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US National Debt will cross $22 trillion by December 31, 2018. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by dakyne on 2018-03-26; known in 14 days.
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Spot silver will reach $20 by December 31, 2018. ( 70% confidence )
Created by dakyne on 2018-03-26; known in 14 days.
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China probe lands on far side of the moon, returns samples ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-23; known in 15 days.
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Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar: 1 billion (Rs 6,600 crore) worth of defence equipment will be exported in three years. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-24; known in 15 days.
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The new Amazon HQ will be hosted by a city with a population of < 3,000,000 people in its metropolitan area ( 25% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-10-22; known in 15 days.
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The new Amazon HQ will be hosted in the Austin-Round Rock, TX metro area ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-10-22; known in 15 days.
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Serious impeachment proceedings begin against Trump ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 15 days.
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I manage to climb a 5.11 wall at a rock climbing gym ( 70% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 15 days.
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I do not attend a rationality/lesswrong/SSC event or meetup ( 90% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 15 days.
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There is no deadly confrontation between North Korea and US armed Forces in 2018 ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 15 days.
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I switch away from iPhone ( 80% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 15 days.
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I do not start a blog or write regularly ( 90% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 15 days.
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Trump is president at years end ( 91% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 15 days.
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I hike antelope canyon ( 80% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 15 days.
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I do not do any sort of work in a foreign country ( 70% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 15 days.
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Another US senator or representative will resign or be removed from office due to allegations of sexual harassment or assault ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 15 days.