Upcoming Predictions
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Jakes IO psych conference happens in April ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-16; known on 2021-04-16.
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PC at home will disappear in future ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-16; known on 2021-04-16.
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There will be a Olympic competition for Robot simulated human? ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-16; known on 2021-04-16.
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Gold reaches range $800~900/oz by 04/21/2021 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-22; known on 2021-04-21.
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[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-04-25 ( 95% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25.
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[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-03-04 ( 25% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25.
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[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-03-26 ( 75% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25.
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[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-02-12 ( 5% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25.
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[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-03-13 ( 50% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25.
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Nicotine will be found to help fight coronavirus ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by evand on 2020-04-26; known on 2021-04-26.
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Derek Chauvin will be convicted of murder ( 52% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by enolan on 2020-06-17; known on 2021-04-30.
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Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known on 2021-04-30.
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Hungary will open its borders back ( 40% confidence )
Created by MartaK on 2020-10-30; known on 2021-04-30.
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James Bond No Time to Die is released in April ( 80% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-05-01.
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At least 2 of the popular news aggregation services (Feedly, Inoreader, Digg Reader, NewsBlur, The Old Reader) will use their RSS aggregation apps as their main source of revenue, sustaining their business. ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2017-05-26; known on 2021-05-02.
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If i study hard, i could be the best ! ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-05-11; known on 2021-05-11.
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Bellingcat releases a report on the suspected identity of QAnon (aka Q) within five months ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-12-11; known on 2021-05-11.
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Skip will see his parents in person before May 15, 2021 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Liface on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-05-15.
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Cal Newport's next book will be about applying lean manufacturing concepts to knowledge work (either main theme or one of the top ideas) ( 75% confidence )
Created by sortega on 2020-06-07; known on 2021-05-16.
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[Self] I will finish my course on rhetoric in a way that makes me proud. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by meedstrom 23 days ago; known on 2021-05-21.
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I am banned from Predictionbook ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-23; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by bobpage on 2018-01-02.
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I am banned from Facebook ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-23; known on 2021-05-22.
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Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known on 2021-05-31.
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A Fortune 500 company (besides Tesla) within the next 3 months will announce they have bought Bitcoin ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kadavy 3 days ago; known on 2021-06-01.
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AOC will not testify in a criminal trial against anyone involved in the Capitol riot. ( 60% confidence )
Created by srconstantin 24 days ago; known on 2021-06-01.
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Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known on 2021-06-01.
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Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known on 2021-06-01.
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Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by June ( 50% confidence )
Created by meedstrom 18 days ago; known on 2021-06-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2021-06-01.
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At least 4% of non-electric vehicles sold in 2020 in the US will be diesel. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-02; known on 2021-06-01.
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COVID, UK – The UK has a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-24; known on 2021-06-02.
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[Self] I will get my Bachelor's degree by June. ( 10% confidence )
Created by meedstrom 23 days ago; known on 2021-06-02.
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Computer users who have stickers on their laptop are as a group more aggressive and more likely to get into arguments online than those who do not have stickers ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-03; known on 2021-06-03.
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Backdoor in crypto used by Signal/libsignal (revealed to public in 5 years) ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-12; known on 2021-06-10.
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RSA-260 factored by 2021-05-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 40% confidence )
Created by evand about 14 hours ago; known on 2021-06-15.
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NYC gyms will be allowed to remain open (not necessarily full capacity) throughout the potential 4th wave of covid infections. ( 72% confidence )
Created by pdf 10 days ago; known on 2021-06-15.
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My WAM for sem 1 2021 will be 90+ ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-16; known on 2021-06-15.
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A COVID-19 vaccine will be made available to the general populace in August, 2021. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jim_P on 2020-06-11; known on 2021-06-16.
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Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in Spain (either for people vaccinated or recovered) ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2020-04-06; known on 2021-06-16.
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Within five years it will be generally agreed that Egypt Flight 804 was brought down by an act of terror rather than a mechanical fault. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-16; known on 2021-06-16.
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Conditional on Egypt Flight 804 being a terrorist plot, the weak link will not be France or French airport security ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-07; known on 2021-06-16.
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Conditional on his participation, Andrew Yang wins the primary for the NYC mayoral election. ( 30% confidence )
Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known on 2021-06-22.
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Andrew Yang participates (competes) in the primary for the NYC mayoral election. ( 60% confidence )
Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known on 2021-06-22.
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Buying LinkedIn will turn out to be a bad decision for Microsoft! ( 75% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by hoka on 2016-06-25; known on 2021-06-25.
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Jurassic World 3 is released in June 2021 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-06-30.
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An Immunitor vaccine clinical trial will actually take place in more than 20 people. ( 7% confidence )
Created by katriel on 2020-06-22; known on 2021-06-30.
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[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] nobody ( 92% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30.
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[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] Patrice Trovoada ( 2% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30.
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[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] someone other than Ian Khama or Patrice Trovoada ( 1% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30.
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[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] Ian Khama ( 5% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30.