Usain Bolt sets a new PB in the 100m. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known in about 20 hours.

'2024 Infrared signals are detected coming from the centre of the Galaxy, obviously the product of a technologically advanced civilisation. All attempts to decipher them fail.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known in about 20 hours.

A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known in about 20 hours.

at least one of the two new roundabouts in regina are replaced by traffic lights/normal intersections ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-27; known in about 20 hours.

2025 Price of a Crunchwrap Supreme < $4 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known in about 20 hours.

Ana is misleading to Aaron about the 'marriage' name in some significant way – e.g. it maybe is not symmetric. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known in about 20 hours.

By 2025, single-lens magnifying glasses that allow a person to view unicellular microorganisms will be available to consumers for less than US$100 (adjusted for inflation). ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known in about 20 hours.

Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known in about 20 hours.

No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. ( 79% confidence; 13 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known in about 20 hours.

By 2025, the remains of several prehistoric human settlements will be discovered underwater by archaeologists. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known in about 20 hours.

“By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.” ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known in about 20 hours.

Magnesium infused with silicon carbide nanoparticles will be used as major structural component for cars by 2025. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26; known in about 20 hours.

By 2025, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known in about 20 hours.

Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-28; known in about 20 hours.

The TV show “The Walking Dead” will have at least 10 completed seasons before 2025. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Mati on 2015-03-28; known in about 20 hours.

By 2025, the GOP's current libertarian/conservative coalition will no longer be united under one party. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known in about 20 hours.

By 2025, the volume of robocalls will exceed the volume of live calls on the regular phone system ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-16; known in about 20 hours.

Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known in about 20 hours.

'African elephants are on the brink of extinction' in 2024 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in about 20 hours.

Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 —Tachi Yamada ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known in about 20 hours.

“By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe.” ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known in about 20 hours.

Solar Probe Plus flies into Sun's corona in 2024 ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in about 20 hours.

“By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.” ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known in about 20 hours.

“By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.” ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known in about 20 hours.

“By 2025, The giant impact hypothesis will no longer be the dominant scientific hypothesis for the formation of the Moon.” ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known in about 20 hours.

“By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists.” ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known in about 20 hours.

“By 2025, The Aether Physics Model will not have replaced quantum physics and the theory of relativity as the standard model.” ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known in about 20 hours.

“By 2025, at least 25 of the 30 stocks currently in the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be dropped from the index and replaced with other companies.” ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known in about 20 hours.

SLS to be cancelled outright or to launch at least once before 2025. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known in about 20 hours.

“By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.” ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known in about 20 hours.

The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 72% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known in about 20 hours.

There are ten or more US Supreme Court justices by the end of 2024 ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-05; known in about 20 hours.

Ireland will legalize Marijuana between 2021 and 2024 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known in about 20 hours.

Petabyte storage devices are available in 2024 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in about 20 hours.

The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. ( 30% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known in about 20 hours.

By 2025, there will be no 28th Amendment to the Constitution of the USA ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known in about 20 hours.

2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known in about 20 hours.

Marijuana will be legal in Canada by 2025. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-09-01; known in about 20 hours.

Jon Snow alive at beginning of The Winds of Winter ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Leo on 2013-01-19; known in about 20 hours.

By 2025, a living multicellular organism will be printed using 3D printing technology. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-31; known in about 20 hours.

Real Madrid would have won the champions league at least 6 times by the year 2025 ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Seyi on 2011-11-17; known in about 20 hours.

Google Nexus tablets survive longer than Microsoft Surface tablets as a business ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known in about 20 hours.

Tom Cotton runs in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. ( 70% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-01; known in about 20 hours.

Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 200m. ( 20% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known in about 20 hours.

“The concept of time as a linear dimension will be replaced by one of time as a polarity between content and context.” ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known in about 20 hours.

By January 1st, 2025, the US employment/population ratio will be 60% or under. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-31; known in about 20 hours.

The United States drug scheduling system will be dramatically revised by 2025. ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known in about 20 hours.

We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2025 ( 96% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known in about 20 hours.