Jakes IO psych conference happens in April ( 60% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-16; known on 2021-04-16.

PC at home will disappear in future ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-16; known on 2021-04-16.

There will be a Olympic competition for Robot simulated human? ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-16; known on 2021-04-16.

Gold reaches range $800~900/oz by 04/21/2021 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-22; known on 2021-04-21.

[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-04-25 ( 95% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25.

[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-03-04 ( 25% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25.

[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-03-26 ( 75% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25.

[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-02-12 ( 5% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25.

[People in England will be able to meet socially in a group of six or more in public outdoor places before] 2021-03-13 ( 50% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-04-25.

Nicotine will be found to help fight coronavirus ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by evand on 2020-04-26; known on 2021-04-26.

Derek Chauvin will be convicted of murder ( 52% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by enolan on 2020-06-17; known on 2021-04-30.

100 million first doses of COVID vaccines administered in Biden’s first 100 days, i.e. as of April 30th, 2021 (as measured by this tracker: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 45% confidence )

Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known on 2021-04-30.

Hungary will open its borders back ( 40% confidence )

Created by MartaK on 2020-10-30; known on 2021-04-30.

James Bond No Time to Die is released in April ( 80% confidence )

Created by qznc on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-05-01.

At least 2 of the popular news aggregation services (Feedly, Inoreader, Digg Reader, NewsBlur, The Old Reader) will use their RSS aggregation apps as their main source of revenue, sustaining their business. ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2017-05-26; known on 2021-05-02.

If i study hard, i could be the best ! ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-05-11; known on 2021-05-11.

Bellingcat releases a report on the suspected identity of QAnon (aka Q) within five months ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2020-12-11; known on 2021-05-11.

Skip will see his parents in person before May 15, 2021 ( 70% confidence )

Created by Liface on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-05-15.

Cal Newport's next book will be about applying lean manufacturing concepts to knowledge work (either main theme or one of the top ideas) ( 75% confidence )

Created by sortega on 2020-06-07; known on 2021-05-16.

[Self] I will finish my course on rhetoric in a way that makes me proud. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by meedstrom 23 days ago; known on 2021-05-21.

I am banned from Facebook ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-23; known on 2021-05-22.

Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed between April 1st and May 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 65% confidence )

Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known on 2021-05-31.

A Fortune 500 company (besides Tesla) within the next 3 months will announce they have bought Bitcoin ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by kadavy 3 days ago; known on 2021-06-01.

AOC will not testify in a criminal trial against anyone involved in the Capitol riot. ( 60% confidence )

Created by srconstantin 24 days ago; known on 2021-06-01.

150 million first doses of COVID vaccines administered by June 1st (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/us or an alternative if this goes away). ( 40% confidence )

Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known on 2021-06-01.

9 million first doses of COVID administered in NY as of June 1st, 2021 (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 30% confidence )

Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known on 2021-06-01.

Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by June ( 50% confidence )

Created by meedstrom 18 days ago; known on 2021-06-01.

A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2021-06-01.

At least 4% of non-electric vehicles sold in 2020 in the US will be diesel. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-02; known on 2021-06-01.

COVID, UK – The UK has a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 COVID deaths before 1 June 2021. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-24; known on 2021-06-02.

[Self] I will get my Bachelor's degree by June. ( 10% confidence )

Created by meedstrom 23 days ago; known on 2021-06-02.

Computer users who have stickers on their laptop are as a group more aggressive and more likely to get into arguments online than those who do not have stickers ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-03; known on 2021-06-03.

Backdoor in crypto used by Signal/libsignal (revealed to public in 5 years) ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-12; known on 2021-06-10.

RSA-260 factored by 2021-05-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 40% confidence )

Created by evand about 14 hours ago; known on 2021-06-15.

NYC gyms will be allowed to remain open (not necessarily full capacity) throughout the potential 4th wave of covid infections. ( 72% confidence )

Created by pdf 10 days ago; known on 2021-06-15.

My WAM for sem 1 2021 will be 90+ ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-16; known on 2021-06-15.

A COVID-19 vaccine will be made available to the general populace in August, 2021. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jim_P on 2020-06-11; known on 2021-06-16.

Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in Spain (either for people vaccinated or recovered) ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sortega on 2020-04-06; known on 2021-06-16.

Within five years it will be generally agreed that Egypt Flight 804 was brought down by an act of terror rather than a mechanical fault. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-16; known on 2021-06-16.

Conditional on Egypt Flight 804 being a terrorist plot, the weak link will not be France or French airport security ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-07; known on 2021-06-16.

Conditional on his participation, Andrew Yang wins the primary for the NYC mayoral election. ( 30% confidence )

Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known on 2021-06-22.

Andrew Yang participates (competes) in the primary for the NYC mayoral election. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon 9 days ago; known on 2021-06-22.

Buying LinkedIn will turn out to be a bad decision for Microsoft! ( 75% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by hoka on 2016-06-25; known on 2021-06-25.

Jurassic World 3 is released in June 2021 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-06-30.

An Immunitor vaccine clinical trial will actually take place in more than 20 people. ( 7% confidence )

Created by katriel on 2020-06-22; known on 2021-06-30.

[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] nobody ( 92% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30.

[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] Patrice Trovoada ( 2% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30.

[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] someone other than Ian Khama or Patrice Trovoada ( 1% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30.

[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] Ian Khama ( 5% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30.