I will continue to think that AI alignment (including governance, multiagent, field building etc) is the most important thing for me to work on July 27th 2023. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2023-07-27.

With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ( 8% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2023-07-29.

Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2023-08-16.

In mid-2023, Brazil will have had mild GDP growth, but Bolsonarist bubbles will claim that these results are fake and Brazil is in a recession ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-09-01.

S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National (CSUSHPINSA) for June 2023 is less than 313.4. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-06-08; known on 2023-09-01.

Amazon superará a Cencosud en Sudamérica dentro de 5 años. ( 90% confidence )

Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-03; known on 2023-09-03.

“I make the falsifiable prediction that during Pope Francis's tenure the Catholic Church will shrink, its proportional membership will diminish and its contributions per member will drop.” — EY (on Facebook) ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-09-20; known on 2023-09-20.

Still no first kiss before my 30th birthday. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by John Smith on 2018-04-10; known on 2023-10-10.

I will be in a romantic relationship with a woman whom I love and who loves me at some point between now and my 30th birthday. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by John Smith on 2018-04-10; known on 2023-10-10.

Knowledge organisation (as an extension/generalisation of services such as FullContact, Evernote) will become an important service in the next 5 years ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by raehik on 2018-10-13; known on 2023-10-13.

I will still think in early November 2023 that my moderate anxious personality is strongly related to my lifelong sort-of-“constant” internet usage, and in a causal way (internet → anxiety) which reflects my teenage years (10+) ( 90% confidence )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-08; known on 2023-11-08.

Republicans will take both houses of Congress in 2022. Without federal legislation protecting voting rights. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-25; known on 2023-11-16.

Oculus will not realese a headset more expensive than 500$ in the next 5 years. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-01; known on 2023-12-01.

Javier Milei will win the 2023 presidential elections in Argentina. ( 60% confidence )

Created by joaquin on 2022-06-08; known on 2023-12-01.

I will not go to the 20 Books to 50k conference in Vegas again in 2023 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kadavy on 2022-10-21; known on 2023-12-01.

I will post a tweet between Dec 1 2023 and Dec 7 2023 (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-12; known on 2023-12-07.

Freeman Dyson will become a centenarian ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2023-12-16.

Will I have significantly less back pain in one year. ( 20% confidence )

Created by aut on 2022-12-19; known on 2023-12-19.

Will I attend a party celebrating the eradication of smallpox on smallpox eradication day (9 dec) next year. The party can be organised by me or by someone else. It will count as a party if we are 4 or more people and we are doing party like things. ( 80% confidence )

Created by aut on 2022-12-19; known on 2023-12-19.

No US city with a population of over a million people will require covid vaccines for indoor dining on December 22, 2023. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-22; known on 2023-12-23.

USA will default on its debt. ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2023-12-25.

aliens invade earth in 2023 ( 0% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2023-12-31.

Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 5 years ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2023-12-31.

Resolute gets treble damages against Greenpeace thanks to RICO (from 2017 case) ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-08; known on 2023-12-31.

At least one Trump National Security Lottery is put on by the US federal government ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-25; known on 2023-12-31.

>128 people actively communicating using RahisiBhasha ( 4% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09; known on 2023-12-31.

“Roe v. Wade will not celebrate a 50th anniversary.” ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-12-31.

“Patents will be abolished by at least two leading economies within the next 20 years for all areas except pharmaceuticals.” ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-12-31.

I won’t complete another in-person semester at UPenn before the end of 2023 ( 60% confidence )

Created by tamera on 2022-07-28; known on 2023-12-31.

Pepsico rolls out 100 Tesla semi by 2023 https://archive.vn/wip/CR0qy ( 5% confidence )

Created by objclone on 2022-12-16; known on 2023-12-31.

Self-driving cars will replace human drivers on public road in at least one country before 2024. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-24; known on 2023-12-31.

The recession that began in 2008 in the US will not be “over” (arbitrarily defined by me as < 5% unemployment for three economic quarters) until 2023. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by deborama on 2011-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.

NFTs will reach mass adoption, but they will also create new layers of financial regulations, and will probably create a financial crash by 2024, where most victims will be from 3rd world countries. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by alfredbaudisch on 2022-01-04; known on 2024-01-01.

Copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse will be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.

By 2024, high frequency trading will be significantly reduced in the US (either by regulation or by diminishing profits) ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-20; known on 2024-01-01.

Phthalate exposure in utero link to reduced intelligence to be confirmed/replicated by at least two other studies by January 1, 2024 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-15; known on 2024-01-01.

“That by 2024 “artificial” life emerging somewhere out of the soup of human technology will be given a Latin taxonomic name by biologists and others and declared viable for study.” ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2024-01-01.

'Borneo’s rainforests have been wiped from the map' by 2023 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

'2023 Dinosaur facsimiles are cloned from computer-generated DNA.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

By 2024, either a) group isomorphism problem will be shown to be equivalent to the graph isomorphism problem or b) the group isomorphism will be shown to be in P. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.

By 2024 James F will publicly express regret at the amount of time he wasted investigating the claims of various religions. ( 75% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2014-03-08; known on 2024-01-01.

New Calvin and Hobbes strips released before 2024 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Omid on 2013-10-11; known on 2024-01-01.

early election call in ontario ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant will be generally considered a lab leak before 2024 ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jasticE on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the mean squared error of the predicted to the actual Brier score for the questions be better on logistic fit than the exponential fit, for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01.

'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

A Chinese military vessel docks at Thitu by 2024 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2024-01-01.

Stephanie Winston Wolkoff indicted before 2024 ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-07; known on 2024-01-01.

Scientists find evidence of new homo species in North America great lakes area that lived ~14ky ago ( 5% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2024-01-01.

I will get a job in academia in Denmark after my PhD ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ayegill on 2020-07-16; known on 2024-01-01.