a nationwide ban on abortion goes into effect in the next 6 years, based on fetal personhood. ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.

laws against unmarried people living together on the local level will spread ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.

large credit card companies, paypal, square etc. refuse to accept payments from businesses that sell trans care items: for example, binders, packers, queer comics, flags, art. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.

it becomes significantly more difficult for queer couples to get surrogates or adopt in the united states within 6 years. ( 63% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.

serious challenge to obergefell goes before the supreme court in the next 6 years. ( 59% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.

lawrence v texas won't be overturned in the next 6 years, but will be substantially weakened by alterations to the scope of what counts as public sex, the expectation of privacy, or by what counts as obscenity. ( 39% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.

assuming roe v wade is overturned, certain kinds of hormonal contraception will be classified as abortificants and banned in some states. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.

gender studies, women's studies, queer studies, ethnic studies defunded from multiple universities, in particular state universities. ( 67% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.

purchase of at least one major news network or org (i don't mean twitter) by a conservative group or individual. (if i were going to guess which in particular, i'd guess abc) with the intent to turn it into a conservative media outlet ( 31% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.

a case will come before the supreme court regarding anti-blasphemy or obscenity laws, and the court will take the case. ( 57% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.

Google will survive for 15 more years ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2028-05-19.

Eliezer Yudkowsky's “estimate of the optimal age will be twenty years higher” than it was in 2008 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-09; known on 2028-05-30.

I will not use an Apple Vision Plus (or comparable Apple VR/AR product) more than two hours per day. ( 90% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2023-06-06; known on 2028-06-01.

Glucose-powered electronics will go for FDA approval in 2028 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by icrbow on 2017-08-03; known on 2028-06-01.

>1000 sq. mi of currently-Canadian land is under US sovereignty as of july 4 2028 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by finback on 2020-08-21; known on 2028-07-04.

2048 bit RSA keys to be widely considered to be deprecated by July 7, 2028 ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2028-07-08.

There will be less people cryogenically frozen in China than in the US by 2028. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-02; known on 2028-08-13.

It will be illegal to drive yourself on Australian public roads ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-08-26; known on 2028-08-26.

It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-08-26; known on 2028-08-26.

Human extinction caused by AI before my 35th birthday. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2028-10-10.

People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Leo on 2018-10-21; known on 2028-10-21.

Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Leo on 2018-10-23; known on 2028-10-23.

The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.

Surgeries for 95% of the worlds medical problems will be drastically cost-reduced and available by 2028. ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2028-12-27.

Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 10 years. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2028-12-31.

My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 ( 8% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-12; known on 2028-12-31.

There will be a US military program to use AI in order to reduce exposure of US soldiers (pilots, analysts) to shocking Drone video footage so that their mental health is preserved. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by technophil on 2023-03-06; known on 2028-12-31.

Alexei Navalny becomes president or prime minister of Russia by the year 2028. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-07-26; known on 2028-12-31.

Q.I. abandons its “one letter a season” concept. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2028-12-31.

Q.I. makes it up to “Z”. ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2028-12-31.

Noam Chomsky to become a centenarian ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2029-01-01.

The largest operating system/platform by marketshare will be recognizable as being built off of Curtis Yarvin's ideas ( 5% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-03; known on 2029-01-01.

Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-21; known on 2029-01-01.

The largest operating system/platform by marketshare will have been completely built from first principles by DeepMind/AGI, not building on existing OS before 2017 ( 44% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-03; known on 2029-01-01.

Clay Christensen: In 15 Years From Now Half of US Universities May Be in Bankruptcy ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-14; known on 2029-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project considers its December 2016 grant to Harvard University's Solar Geoengineering Research Program a success on 2027-01-01 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2029-01-01.

By 2028 there will be a biological catastrophe worse than COVID ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-13; known on 2029-01-01.

Half of more than 4,000 universities in the U.S. (that existed in 2013) to be in bankruptcy by 2028 – Clayton Christensen ( 65% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2029-01-01.

'The International Space Station is decommissioned' by 2029 ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2029-01-01.

Milestone 4 as discussed at http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=2155 will be achieved by 2028. ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20; known on 2029-01-01.

World record for marathon <2 hours —François Péronnet ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-17; known on 2029-01-01.

Kanye West will win the presidency in 2024 or 2028 ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-24; known on 2029-01-01.

By 2029 no computer – or “machine intelligence” – will have passed the Turing Test. ( 48% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2029-01-01.

Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, “How to create a mind”) ( 25% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-02-08; known on 2029-01-02.

The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended. ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-01-16.

I will still be a NEET (including retired early) on my 30th birthday ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2029-03-01.

The cost of one TFLOPS will be more than $0.9375 by 2029. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-02; known on 2029-03-02.

Donald Trump Jr. (Donald John Trump Jr.) (born December 31, 1977) has more than five children that he admits paternity of within ten (10) years ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-03-06; known on 2029-03-06.

Within 14 years new carbon structures will enable the ability of producing in lab environments pressures of at least 3.6 * 10^13 Pa and many pure carbon substances will have near zero cost due. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2029-05-01.