[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2026-12-31 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2024-06-30 ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2026-06-30 ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2025-12-31 ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.

Facebook caught labelling website as “fake news” for saying negative things about Facebook. ( 77% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2027-01-08.

By Feb 1, 2027, clear that massive reduction in fertility due to Covid vaccines. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-19; known on 2027-02-02.

Russia to invade Israel in the next 5 years. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-07; known on 2027-02-08.

Age-adjusted mortality rate in men from lung cancer in England/Wales <= 400/million (as reported by ONS — 2015: 704, 2001: 963) ( 60% confidence )

Created by penten on 2017-02-15; known on 2027-02-15.

The worlds first “truely” cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis. ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-02-27.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to The Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) a major success ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-03-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Compassion in World Farming a major success ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-03-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to The Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-03-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Compassion in World Farming a success ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-03-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Jeanne Marchig Centre a major success ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-04-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Jeanne Marchig Centre a success ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-04-01.

World GDP will have grown by at least 7.5% (roughly double the average since 1950) within one calendar year up to and including 2026. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-06-15; known on 2027-04-02.

Sean Spicer tweeted a bitcoin address ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-02; known on 2027-05-02.

legislation to ban trans healthcare (hrt, surgery, or social transition) in children will be upheld by the supreme court in the next 6 years. ( 59% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2027-05-08.

legislation to ban trans healthcare (hrt, surgery) in adults will be upheld by the supreme court in the next 6 years. ( 1% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2027-05-08.

no strict reversal of Bostock vs Clayton County (that discrimination against trans people is protected against under the civil rights act), but i anticipate it will be weakened via “religious liberty” suits in the next 6 years. ( 62% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2027-05-08.

I in 4 years ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-05-23; known on 2027-05-23.

More than 50% of households in saskatchewan have at least 1 bicycle with an electric motor attached. ( 35% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-31; known on 2027-05-31.

More than 50% of households who have motorized vehicles in saskatchewan have at least 1 bicycle with an electric motor attached. ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-31; known on 2027-05-31.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Humane Slaughter Association (HSA) a major success ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-07-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Humane Slaughter Association (HSA) a success ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-07-01.

On the Internet, the language barrier will be completely erased, most browsers will automatically translate absolutely everything, including videos, indistinguishable from the original spelling in your language. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by EniScien on 2022-07-03; known on 2027-07-03.

Penn State won't put back up Joe Paterno's statue for the next 15 years. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-23; known on 2027-07-23.

Antifa goes one step “too far”, commits act of unmistakeable err, is publicly roasted across the spectrum, and becomes much less prominent as a thing compared to 2017 ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-17; known on 2027-08-17.

S.M. is gay ( 5% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-10; known on 2027-09-01.

texting & driving illegal in most canadian provinces AND most vehicles (66%+) on the road fitted with safety features rendering such laws irrelevant ( 81% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-02; known on 2027-09-04.

Conditional on the psych eval being released to the public, it will show that Martin Shkreli has aspergers or is on the autistic spectrum ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-20; known on 2027-09-21.

Someone is jailed for building or selling child fembots(conversant, 'anatomically functional' robots capable of bipedal self directed movement that look like underage girls) ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-29; known on 2027-09-29.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its September 2016 University of Cape Town Geomagnetics Research grant a success given that Professor Gaunt completes at least 80% of the work ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-10-01.

There will be a major uncontrolled forest fire in northern half of France (north of Clermont Ferrand, eg. Sologne or other forrests) due to increased heat, poor forest management and fire hazards ( 75% confidence )

Created by technophil on 2023-03-06; known on 2027-10-01.

KIC 8462852's strange light patterns will be determined within a very high confidence to be natural by November 1, 2027 ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-14; known on 2027-10-02.

permissioned blockchains will enable persecution of activists ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2027-10-09.

permissioned blockchains will enable sophisticated embezzlement ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2027-10-09.

Social Engineering will go into standard practice for The Prison Reform Act in late 2027. ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-10-15.

I will become a famous singer ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Uisaria on 2017-11-06; known on 2027-11-06.

[If Lula goes unpunished, Brazil will balkanize herself] If ex-president and capo mafioso gangster Lula and the permanent political class he bribed goes unpunished in 2018, there's a big chance Brazil will plunge into chaos and balkanize herself in the next ten years. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2027-11-25.

[If Lula goes unpunished, Brazil will balkanize herself] The capital city will be moved elsewhere from Brasilia. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2027-11-25.

[If Lula goes unpunished, Brazil will balkanize herself] A junta will take over after a military coup. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2027-11-25.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Green Monday a major success ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-12-01.

Cycle of threats doesn't end. The united states and north korea each threaten to use nuclear weapons on eachother, in no uncertain terms, at least once every 6 months until 2027 ( 8% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-25; known on 2027-12-31.

China will have world's largest GDP by 2027, and not before 2020. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-01; known on 2027-12-31.

Bhāratīya Nau Senā (भारतीय नौ सेना) wil be a 200 ship fleet by 2027 – Admiral P Murugesan ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-24; known on 2027-12-31.

Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha(IAF, भारतीय वायु सेना, Bharatiya Vāyu Senā) We are looking forward to building up our combat fleet to 42 squadrons by the end of the 14th plan, by 2027 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-05; known on 2027-12-31.

In 2027(latest possible date) the EU and Ukraine will recognize the liberation of Crimea as an indivisible part of Rossiya(Россия). ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2027-12-31.

Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket to enter commercial service before the end of 2027 ( 90% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-14; known on 2027-12-31.