Upcoming Predictions
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North and South Korea will reunify by 2025 ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2025-12-31.
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Bharat's carbon dioxide peaking year will be 2030. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-03; known on 2025-12-31.
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“Major online internet useage research firms will record that over 3 billion people in 2025 managed their incoming and outgoing digital information using a graphical user interface based on Quadrant Theory – as described in Marshall McLuhan's “Tetrad” mod ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-12-31.
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Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-05-28; known on 2025-12-31.
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60% or more of the population of any one country will use public transit more frequently than driving by 2025 ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2025-12-31.
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World's total fertility rate will fall to replacement rate by 2025. In 1960, women worldwide had an average of 5 children. The rate has since halved, and in 2012, women had an average of 2.5 children across all regions. The World Bank is the source. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-29; known on 2025-12-31.
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Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 ( 3% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Brasil will reduce 37% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 from 2005 levels—Dilma Rouseff ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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Created by moyamo on 2021-01-26; known on 2026-01-01.
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Created by moyamo on 2021-01-26; known on 2026-01-01.
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A public, high-speed (at least 4G speed), backwards compatible and equivalent internet to the current fibre-based system, in the HF radio spectrum, suitable for at least national propagation between nodes, implemented by 2025 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by luxpir on 2015-09-29; known on 2026-01-01.
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1 000 million tons of cement production by 2025. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2026-01-01.
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By 2025, at least five top-ranking Western Ph.D. psychology programmes (out of a plausible 'world top 10' at the time) will require the conduction a high-quality “direct” replication attempt of a major finding in their research area. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-07-19; known on 2026-01-01.
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China NOT to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before 2026 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by niconiconi on 2020-10-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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Will it turn out by 2026 that grokking is essentially the same thing as phase shifts in thermodynamics/statistical mechanics? ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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Will I belief that the bridge transform is illuminating something important about epistemology by 2026? ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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Obergefell v Hodges effectively overturned by December 31, 2025 ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-30; known on 2026-01-01.
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Marijuana to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 ( 75% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.
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'China's economy continues to boom' in 2025 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.
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By the end of 2025 speech to text software "will be just below the level of a trained stenographer with something like 80% probability, and “solved” (somewhat above that level in many different languages) with 30% probability. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-09; known on 2026-01-01.
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'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2025 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-09.
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'Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge' by 2025 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.
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By 2025, autism rates in the US will surpass 50% for children. ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-30; known on 2026-01-01.
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'Experiments at a university have yielded the first 10 year old mice' by 2025 ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.
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Consensus that B/Yamagata influenza completed eliminated by January 1, 2026. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-31; known on 2026-01-01.
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New York Times to have higher readership in 2025 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2026-01-01.
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By 2026 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2026-01-01.
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Ada/Cardano to go above $1 by 2025 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2026-01-01.
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Slashdot to exist through 2025 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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SomethingAwful to exist through 2025 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Intrade (or a similar real money prediction market) will be legal in the US by 2026 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-28; known on 2026-01-01.
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At least one article Vipul Naik pays to create on the English Wikipedia will have good article or featured article status by the end of 2025 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-08; known on 2026-01-01.
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'2025 Neurological research finally leads to an understanding of all the senses, and direct input becomes possible, bypassing ears, eyes, skin, etc. The result is the metal “Braincap.” Anyone wearing this close-fitting helmet can enter a whole universe of ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2026-01-01.
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Voyager 1 to outlast the Mars Curiosity rover ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2026-01-01.
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Electronic Arts to survive to 2025 ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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I will continue to use (in any form, on any machine) tmux in 2025 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-08; known on 2026-01-01.
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Voyager 1 to outlast Dawn Mission ( 75% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2026-01-01.
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Yahoo will cease to exist by 2026 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-05; known on 2026-01-01.
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Christopher P. McKay to do IAmA on reddit by 2025 ( 51% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2026-01-01.
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Law enforcement in the USA is/has been pressuring ISPs to secretly configure router settings to spy on suspects ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-09-04; known on 2026-01-01.
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Wolfram Research will last through 2025 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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The Hubble Telescope will deorbit before the end of 2025 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2026-01-01.
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Autonomous cars will comprise 10% of greater of total KM's traveled on Australian roads by end of 2025. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-07; known on 2026-01-01.
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Speech to text processing to improve such that by end of 2025 it will be an essentially solved problem. ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-09; known on 2026-01-01.
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Jane Goodall to do IAmA on reddit by 2025 ( 70% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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AT&T buys Verizon, or vice versa. ( 28% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-03; known on 2026-01-01.
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Adobe to survive to 2025 ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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ladybugs found to return to their birthplace, like salmon ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2026-01-01.
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Boson Sampling or Scattershot Boson Sampling with at least 12 photons to be performed by January 1, 2026. ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2026-01-01.
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There will be more elementary school teachers in 2025 than there are in 2012 (http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm ) ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.