1 000 million tons of cement production by 2025. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2026-01-01.

By 2025, at least five top-ranking Western Ph.D. psychology programmes (out of a plausible 'world top 10' at the time) will require the conduction a high-quality “direct” replication attempt of a major finding in their research area. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RoryS on 2015-07-19; known on 2026-01-01.

Will I belief that the bridge transform is illuminating something important about epistemology by 2026? ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2026-01-01.

Will it turn out by 2026 that grokking is essentially the same thing as phase shifts in thermodynamics/statistical mechanics? ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2026-01-01.

China NOT to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before 2026 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by niconiconi on 2020-10-16; known on 2026-01-01.

I will be a millionaire by 2026, 5 years after graduating college ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by thebaelfire on 2017-07-14; known on 2026-01-01.

'China's economy continues to boom' in 2025 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.

Obergefell v Hodges effectively overturned by December 31, 2025 ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-30; known on 2026-01-01.

'Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge' by 2025 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.

Speech to text processing to improve such that by end of 2025 it will be an essentially solved problem. ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-09; known on 2026-01-01.

'Experiments at a university have yielded the first 10 year old mice' by 2025 ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.

Boson Sampling or Scattershot Boson Sampling with at least 12 photons to be performed by January 1, 2026. ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2026-01-01.

Voyager 1 to outlast Dawn Mission ( 75% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2026-01-01.

Nintendo to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 ( 35% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.

By 2026 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2026-01-01.

Samsung to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.

MDMA to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.

Google Search will be less popular than a product from OpenAI by 2026 ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by elecnix on 2022-12-10; known on 2026-01-01.

Intrade (or a similar real money prediction market) will be legal in the US by 2026 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-28; known on 2026-01-01.

'2025 Neurological research finally leads to an understanding of all the senses, and direct input becomes possible, bypassing ears, eyes, skin, etc. The result is the metal “Braincap.” Anyone wearing this close-fitting helmet can enter a whole universe of ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2026-01-01.

By the end of 2025 speech to text software "will be just below the level of a trained stenographer with something like 80% probability, and “solved” (somewhat above that level in many different languages) with 30% probability. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-09; known on 2026-01-01.

In 2025, $1000 should buy you a computer able to calculate at 10^16 cycles per second (10,000 trillion cycles per second), the equivalent processing speed of the human brain. [Peter Diamandis] ( 30% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.

Wolfram Research will last through 2025 ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.

California almond production to be less than 50% that of 2015 by 2025 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2026-01-01.

The Hubble Telescope will deorbit before the end of 2025 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2026-01-01.

ladybugs found to return to their birthplace, like salmon ( 50% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2026-01-01.

Autonomous cars will comprise 10% of greater of total KM's traveled on Australian roads by end of 2025. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-07; known on 2026-01-01.

Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2025 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2026-01-01.

Duterte OD's on some drug ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-23; known on 2026-01-01.

Airbnb to be acquired by 2025 ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.

Yahoo will cease to exist by 2026 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-05; known on 2026-01-01.

By 2025, autism rates in the US will surpass 50% for children. ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-30; known on 2026-01-01.

At least one nuclear power plant will produce usable power in Australia by 1/1/2026. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2015-12-30; known on 2026-01-01.

Slashdot to exist through 2025 ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.

Ketamine to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.

SomethingAwful to exist through 2025 ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.

Lockheed Martin's Mars lander concept (as presented at IAC 2017) will be abandoned without ever being built. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2026-01-01.

There will be more elementary school teachers in 2025 than there are in 2012 (http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm ) ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.

New York Times to have higher readership in 2025 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2026-01-01.

We will be able to robustly search audio files by text by 2025 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-16; known on 2026-01-01.

gnxp.com to last to 2025 ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.

At least one of the Voyagers to outlast the James Webb Space Telescope ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.

AT&T buys Verizon, or vice versa. ( 28% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-03; known on 2026-01-01.

There will be a House Mouse that lives up to 6 years by 2025 ( 45% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.

Electronic Arts to survive to 2025 ( 55% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.

A study will be done showing that cannabidiol increases lifespan in at least one model organism by 2025 ( 35% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.

At least one article Vipul Naik pays to create on the English Wikipedia will have good article or featured article status by the end of 2025 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-08; known on 2026-01-01.

Marijuana to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 ( 75% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.