Russian troops boots on the ground in Estonia in active combat operations ( 37% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2023-01-01.

Russian boots on the ground in active combat operations in Lithuania ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2023-01-01.

[Covid origin:] The origin of COVID will still be indeterminate on 1 Jan 2023 ( 65% confidence )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.

New Glenn to fly in 2022. ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-02-25; known on 2023-01-01.

[Covid origin:] Definitive evidence will be found concerning an accidental lab escape by 2023 ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.

[Covid origin:] The virus is definitively found to be a bioweapon, released deliberately or accidently by 2023 (<1% chance) ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.

Ooga and Ashley break up ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01.

There will be more janitors in the U.S. in 2022 than there will be in 2012 (http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm ) ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2023-01-01.

SpaceX sends a passenger flight to Mars by 2023. ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-22; known on 2023-01-01.

'Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care' by 2022 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.

World of Warcraft will be shut dow before 2023 ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by silacoid on 2015-08-05; known on 2023-01-01.

Jonathan Rosin will be sentenced to at least a year in jail by January 1, 2023 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-11; known on 2023-01-01.

A bill legalizing abortion in the United States at the federal level is signed into law by 2023. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-04; known on 2023-01-01.

The USA military will use force to remove or help remove the USA government (troops in the streets or the capitol or some other institutions). ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known on 2023-01-01.

A male friend of mine will marry a woman, only to have it revealed later that she's transitioning to being a man ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-25; known on 2023-01-01.

“advances in personal aviation will cause the cost of land in big sur, ca and other remote areas within 250mi of major metropolitan cities to at least triple within the next 15 years – outperforming the s&p 500 over that period.” ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-01-01.

'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.

I will travel to Japan in 2022. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2023-01-01.

US to deliver Poland's MiG fighter jets to Ukraine ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-08; known on 2023-01-01.

AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023 ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.

Ethereum price will reach a new all time high in 2022 ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by MesterSnaps on 2022-03-05; known on 2023-01-01.

kriscooper000 returns by 2023 and modifies their prediction about the moon exploding ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-17; known on 2023-01-01.

Cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2023 ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2023-01-01.

A bill legalizing marijuana in the US at the federal level is signed into law by 2023. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01.

The number of school shootings on the NBC tracker for 2022 exceeds 9 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26; known on 2023-01-01.

China attempts a full scale invasion of Taiwan in 2022. ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by atzeje on 2022-03-16; known on 2023-01-01.

Boris Johnson PM in Jan 2023 ( 20% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by nathanpmyoung on 2022-07-06; known on 2023-01-01.

Vladimir Putin become a defendant in the International Criminal Court before 2023 ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by oakbound on 2022-05-20; known on 2023-01-01.

The ITER fusion reactor will have first plasma by the end of 2022. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2023-01-01.

Starship to do a full-stack launch by end of 2022. ( 59% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-08-23; known on 2023-01-01.

I will weigh an average of 67 kg in the last quarter of 2022. Currently 74.4kg ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by waveman on 2022-01-01; known on 2023-01-01.

assassinations are attempted against both Georgia senators ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by technillogue on 2021-01-14; known on 2023-01-01.

Russian troops invade Moldova ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-02; known on 2023-01-01.

Food shortages, resurgent Islamic radicalism, and a torrent of oil revenues will cause an “Arab Spring” movement to overthrow the Saudi Arabian government (http://rationalconspiracy.com/2012/11/23/the-real-america-of-2022/) ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2023-01-01.

convictions for attempted murders of at least three of {Republicans who voted to impeach, Georgia senators, Biden, Harris} before 2023 ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by technillogue on 2021-01-14; known on 2023-01-01.

an impeachment resolution against Biden is introduced before 2023 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by technillogue on 2021-01-14; known on 2023-01-01.

[Covid origin:] A natural origin near Wuhan is found for the virus by 2023 ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.

One of Italy/Spain/Portugal/Germany will leave the EU before 2023 ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.

In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01.

Github will not censor libreboot corresponding source code off its service ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-21; known on 2023-01-01.

The average graph edit distance from the set of all labeled directed graphs with n nodes to a similarly labeled directed path graph oscillates with no clear pattern with increasing n. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-07-12; known on 2023-01-01.

Paper on total difference labeling published in journal by end of year. ( 64% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-26; known on 2023-01-01.

I will get a mortgage in 2022 ( 80% confidence )

Created by FergusFettes on 2022-08-16; known on 2023-01-01.

Hungarian governing party Fidesz will lose the 2022 general election or lose its governing power before that election. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by korakos on 2020-11-08; known on 2023-01-01.

Bruce Reinhart is alive and well ( 99% confidence )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-19; known on 2023-01-01.

Biden cancels all outstanding student loan debt prior to 2019 ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-23; known on 2023-01-01.

Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01.

First Starship attempt to reach orbit or near orbit will either never reach supersonic speed or will break up before reaching Max Q. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-23; known on 2023-01-01.

Magnus Carlsen will officially accuse Hans Niemann of cheating in an over the board tournament ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by oakbound on 2022-09-21; known on 2023-01-01.