Triplebyte will no longer exist as a company on August 20 2021, and if sold will have sold for less than $48.1M. ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by enolan on 2020-03-21; known on 2021-08-20.

Everybody (who wants to) is vaccinated against CoViD-19 in Germany by September ( 20% confidence )

Created by qznc on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-09-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $5 million in some of the animal welfare groups groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.

Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by September ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-09-01.

I am going to produce more than 20 kg tomatoes ( 70% confidence )

Created by Alk 4 days ago; known on 2021-09-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $1 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.

“Ten years from now, U.S. public libraries will circulate more than a billion print books each year” —Walt Crawford ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-12; known on 2021-09-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $3 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.

Open Phil makes a grant on wild animal suffering within five years. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-07; known on 2021-09-07.

All my friends will be back at school next semester ( 70% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-06; known on 2021-09-10.

A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 30% confidence; 20 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10.

Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter. ( 22% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2021-09-14.

[stocks] Beyond meat upp 20% inom 60 månader ( 65% confidence )

Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15.

[stocks] Boing upp minst 30% inom 1 år ( 70% confidence )

Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15.

[stocks] Disney up ca 10% inom 1 år ( 70% confidence )

Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15.

[stocks] norwegian cruis upp 40% inom ett år ( 60% confidence )

Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15.

[stocks] EPR upp 40% inom 1 år ( 70% confidence )

Created by Alban22 on 2020-11-04; known on 2021-09-15.

In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted). ( 42% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by papermachine on 2011-09-20; known on 2021-09-16.

TBPL takes over NOIC small business development centre, writes them off as a partner. ( 53% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-21; known on 2021-09-21.

Leah and the FSF will make amends, LibreBoot, including Leah will become GNU Libreboot again ( 11% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-21; known on 2021-09-21.

I will end up at least starting an academic postgraduate degree (excludes things like a PGCE, or medical conversion course) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-22; known on 2021-09-22.

https://appfairness.org or a similar campaign gets Apple to either lower their fee or pull their own apps from the store ( 60% confidence )

Created by grin on 2020-09-24; known on 2021-09-24.

COVID, UK – NHS recommends Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before deadline. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known on 2021-09-30.

Professor Trevor Gaunt will complete 80% of the work for the Open Philanthropy Project Geomagnetics Research grant by 2019-10-01 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-10-01.

The WildAid campaign will contribute to a noticeable decline in the growth of Chinese meat consumption by 2019-10-01 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-10-01.

Burning Man 2021 will happen (some time this fall at least 10k people will simultaneously be in Black Rock Desert) ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by lithp 19 days ago; known on 2021-10-01.

Derek Chauvin will not be found guilty of murder / murder charges will be dropped (w.r.t George Floyd case). ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by galaga on 2020-08-03; known on 2021-10-03.

SETI@Home gets compromised by state-sponsored actor as means of getting access to its users computers ( 86% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09; known on 2021-10-07.

in december 2021, I'll be above 1150 since 2 consecutive months in my elo chess rating ( 80% confidence )

Created by Amaru on 2020-12-24; known on 2021-10-16.

SEC filings from Tesla motors still lists Lucid Motors/Atieva/whatever they change their name to as a competitor ( 43% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-20; known on 2021-10-20.

Lucid Motors/Atieva/whatever they change their name to in some way indicates Tesla motors is still a competitor ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-20; known on 2021-10-20.

econstudentlog.wordpress.com or its successor will cease to be updated ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-23; known on 2021-10-23.

bitcoin is no longer around, but zcash is ( 12% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-29; known on 2021-10-28.

Dune movie is released in October ( 70% confidence )

Created by qznc on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-11-01.

Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by ren on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-11-01.

I will get a covid vaccine in by September 2021 ( 70% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-04; known on 2021-11-01.

Conditional on winning the primary, Andrew Yang wins the NYC mayoral election. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-11-02.

EA Global London will be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again. ( 40% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-11-02.

Having survived CoViD-19 makes you immune for at least a year ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2020-04-18; known on 2021-11-03.

andrew yang becomes mayor of new york ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by htaussig on 2021-03-08; known on 2021-11-03.

Jérémie Zimmermann gets caught up in some kind of sex scandal (a la Julian Assange/Jacob Appelbaum) and is forced to withdraw from public life ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08; known on 2021-11-08.

USA Goaltimate Mixed Nationals will happen in November 2021 ( 70% confidence )

Created by Liface on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-11-30.

Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. ( 63% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by penten on 2016-12-01; known on 2021-12-01.

[Self] Tensing reveals my abs by December ( 8% confidence )

Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-12-01.

World share in science papers for the United States fell from 33% in 2003 to 27.8% in 2012.By 2021 it will be under 22.6%. — Web of Science, Thomson Reuters ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-10.

Bharat had 21,269 Web of science papers in 2003 to 45,639 in 2012.Bharat's world share will increase from 3.6% to a lower bound of 4.7%, 66,700 science papers by 2021. ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-10.

World currences will become truly “credit-based” by 2021. Smartcards with biometric IDs will be the forefront of a new era in currency marketing. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2021-12-16.

By 2021, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped. ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by coyotespike on 2016-01-07; known on 2021-12-16.

Brasil’s research papers in Web of Science increased in 2003 to 2012 from 1.7% to 2.7%. It's world share will be at least 3.7% by 2021. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-16.