World currences will become truly “credit-based” by 2021. Smartcards with biometric IDs will be the forefront of a new era in currency marketing. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2021-12-16.

Brasil’s research papers in Web of Science increased in 2003 to 2012 from 1.7% to 2.7%. It's world share will be at least 3.7% by 2021. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-16.

By 2021, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped. ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by coyotespike on 2016-01-07; known on 2021-12-16.

Bharat will be ranked No3 in the world for science by 2022(ranked by Citable documents, Scopus DB). ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30; known on 2021-12-16.

Skip will run a goaltimate league in the San Francisco Bay Area in Fall 2021 ( 60% confidence )

Created by Liface on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-12-21.

In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-24; known on 2021-12-24.

Avatar 2 is released in December 2021 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-12-25.

EU's world share in science papers declined from 38.5% in 2003 to 35.5% in 2012, and by 2021 will be under 32.5%. — Web of Science, Thomson Reuters ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-25.

1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use ( 85% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25.

1 person helicopter drones in commercial use ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25.

Bharat will be ranked 7th in 2021, up from 13th in 2014 in the Nature Index.(Qualitative Science ranking) ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-10; known on 2021-12-25.

Bharat will be ranked 4th in the world by 2021 for zinc production. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2021-12-25.

Bharat will meet or exceed the Copenhagen pledge to reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 20–25% in 2020 compared to 2005 levels. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-04; known on 2021-12-25.

The world share for Zhongguo in science papers has increased from 5.6% in 2003 to 14% in 2012, and will reach at least 22.4% in 2021. This will be higher than the US percentage. — Web of Science, Thomson Reuters ( 100% confidence )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-25.

There will not be a pandemic by Christmas 2021 (in at least half of all countries on a political map, according to their governments) ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by wizzwizz4 on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-12-27.

In 10 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2021-12-28.

Diablo IV is released in 2021 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-12-31.

GPT-3 or comparably advanced AI will be used to generate in-game AI behavior, gameplay logic, and/or story/plot content in a AAA game. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2021-12-31.

Blue Origin's New Glenn to enter commercial service by the end of 2021. ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-14; known on 2021-12-31.

Australia will open its borders to travellers from Canada, without an exemption or quarantine requirement, at some point in 2021 ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by sjy on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-12-31.

0% corporate tax in US ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-17; known on 2021-12-31.

1-5-10-15 income tax passes in the US ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-17; known on 2021-12-31.

Data-centers get carbon taxed by the end of 2021 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by predoindk on 2019-08-25; known on 2021-12-31.

SPX reaches 4000 by the end of 2021 ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-10; known on 2021-12-31.

By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain. ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2018-12-01; known on 2021-12-31.

Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-09-12; known on 2022-01-01.

Tech – In 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI? ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir 24 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2019-08-12; known on 2022-01-01.

Kobe Bryant will own a professional sports team outside the US within the next 12 years (till 2024) ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2022-01-01.

Will Boston's snowfall in 2020-2021 be below average? ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-12-01; known on 2022-01-01.

One of the cyberwarfare viruses (Stuxnet, Flame, ??) will spill out and hit civilian US computers in a widespread way before 2022. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-30; known on 2022-01-01.

ULA's Vulcan rocket to fly by end of 2021. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-12-18; known on 2022-01-01.

Rupert Murdoch will still lead Fox News after his 90th birthday ( 49% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2022-01-01.

Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021 ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-03; known on 2022-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project's December 2016 grant to Impact Justice's Restorative Justice Project will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level (United States) by 2020-01-01 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2022-01-01.

Utah public lands lawsuit reaches US Supreme Court ( 50% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-04; known on 2022-01-01.

OoTS: MitD is the Snarl. ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-06-30; known on 2022-01-01.

'Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft' in 2021 ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01.

CPUs switch from silicon to carbon nanotubes by 2022 ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01.

'Water crisis in southwest USA' in 2021 ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01.

Airplanes are becoming less safe in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's in the U.S. ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-07-06; known on 2022-01-01.

New Glenn rocket to fly putting a payload into orbit by end of 2021. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01.

There won't be a significant automobile virus sighting ( 13% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known on 2022-01-01.

Eric Weinstein said “I'm going to put out Geometric Unity in written form” (in 2021, new years resolution) here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRmbQP6ho4c&ab_channel=DrBrianKeating. I say it will not happen. ( 75% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2021-01-05; known on 2022-01-01.

Most of the gene sites accounting for the additive heritability of g (0.6) will be identified by 2021. — Steve Hsu ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Pablo Stafforini on 2012-10-13; known on 2022-01-01.

Israel and Egypt at war by 2022 ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-16; known on 2022-01-01.

New Glenn to launch by end of 2021. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-14; known on 2022-01-01.

New Glenn to fly at least once in 2021 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01; known on 2022-01-01.

'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' —Steven Pinker ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-03; known on 2022-01-01.