Trumps approval rating never rises above 50% in 2018 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 15 days.

I switch away from iPhone ( 80% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 15 days.

I visit Mexico at least once ( 80% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 15 days.

Trump does not get impeached in 2018 ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 15 days.

Another US senator or representative will resign or be removed from office due to allegations of sexual harassment or assault ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 15 days.

I do not become proficient at cooking for myself ( 90% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 15 days.

I do not start a blog or write regularly ( 90% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 15 days.

There is no deadly confrontation between North Korea and US armed Forces in 2018 ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 15 days.

I do not attend a rationality/lesswrong/SSC event or meetup ( 90% confidence )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 15 days.

Trump is president at years end ( 91% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 15 days.

Serious impeachment proceedings begin against Trump ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known in 15 days.

I will buy a hidpi laptop for my personal use before 2019 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by bobpage on 2016-06-01; known in 15 days.

I will switch back to Windows for my general desktop/laptop computing before 2019-01-01 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bobpage on 2016-10-06; known in 15 days.

Conditional on using computers by the end of the 2018, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by bobpage on 2017-04-12; known in 15 days.

I will visit Japan before 2019 ( 38% confidence )

Created by bobpage on 2016-10-07; known in 15 days.

zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2019 ( 14% confidence )

Created by bobpage on 2016-10-06; known in 15 days.

I will watch the 2013 movie 'Ender's Game' and like it, before 2019 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bobpage on 2012-01-12; known in 15 days.

“By end of year Ripple will be LOL-ing above 1 trillion market cap.” https://twitter.com/JohnyQi/status/956083850928640000 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2018-01-24; known in 15 days.

Before 2019, Apple will announce a product that lets you dock/connect an iPhone to a desktop/laptop monitor + keyboard and use it like a desktop or laptop computer ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2016-09-17; known in 15 days.

Whistleblower reveals, in a way that is undeniable and accepted by majority of these citizens, that federal elections in all of US/CAN/EU (parliament, not necessarily member states)/UK/switzerland is rigged ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-15; known in 15 days.

At least 1 SpaceX Falcon 9 mission in 2018 is a failure with payload damage or loss. ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by kuudes on 2018-02-05; known in 15 days.

I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2019 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by bobpage on 2017-06-19; known in 15 days.

ASOIAF: Wba Fabj jvyy or jnetrq ol Oybbqenira ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by muflax on 2016-04-27; known in 15 days.

ASOIAF: Wba Fabj vf jnetrq ol Oybbqenira be Oena (be obgu) ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by muflax on 2016-04-28; known in 15 days.

“Robot insect spies are in military use” in 2018 ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known in 15 days.

'Cheques are phased out in the UK' by 2019 ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-27; known in 15 days.

Food shortages (eg grocery/food stores with empty shelves) reported at some point before 2019 in South Africa ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12; known in 15 days.

ASOIAF : Wbua Fabj unf Gnetnelra oybbq naq qbrf abg ohea sebz qentbaf ( 42% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known in 15 days.

SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2019. ( 36% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known in 15 days.

SaskTel privatized ( 21% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known in 15 days.

Canada's Federal NDP will adopt the LEAP manifesto as official party policy ( 58% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known in 15 days.

“second attack” in Santa Monica either incorrect/didn't happen, or outright media/government fabrication ( 42% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-13; known in 15 days.

China will fully seize executive power in Hong Kong by 2018. ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Nick.dylan on 2017-04-14; known in 15 days.

Rian Johnson’s new Star Wars trilogy takes place before the Prequel Trilogy. ( 65% confidence )

Created by gallerdude on 2017-12-26; known in 15 days.

'The African Central Bank is established' in 2018 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known in 15 days.

I will not be diagnosed with cancer before the age of 45. ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known in 15 days.

AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2019 ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known in 15 days.

“A rash of new-age-techno cults sweep an exhausted Russia.” ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known in 15 days.

I will still be below 68kg at the end of 2018 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known in 15 days.

USS Gerald R. Ford CVN 78 will spend fewer than 30 days on deployment in 2018 ( 85% confidence )

Created by Dapple on 2017-07-24; known in 15 days.

Kim Jong Un is leader of North Korea on 12/31/18 ( 90% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-03; known in 15 days.

“Consumer devices with 100 Gbit/s transfer speeds” in 2018 ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known in 15 days.

I am still at SFDC in 3 years ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known in 15 days.

Brazil's GDP will be above its 2014 level in 2018. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known in 15 days.

US alert warhead loading reduced to 790 at any point on 2018 ( 47% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-30; known in 15 days.

Theranos will get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood-tests by 2019 ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by ChristianKl on 2015-12-16; known in 15 days.

'Amazon builds its first bricks-and-mortar superstore.' ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known in 15 days.

LP identifies as vegetarian by end of 2018 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known in 15 days.

Emperor Akihito will abdicate the throne by January 1, 2019. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by pvoberstein on 2017-04-18; known in 15 days.