SpaceX will successfully recover a fairing using its net catching system by April 15 2019 ( 55% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-07-25; known on 2019-04-16.

“better than 50/50 chance Kepler-186f has technological life” —Hontas Farmer ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2014-04-21; known on 2019-04-21.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in April for which data are published ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-05-01.

Emperor Akihito to abdicate as scheduled on 2019-04-30 ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato 28 days ago; known on 2019-05-01.

Next US financial crash, and consequent recession to hit between December of 2018, and March of 2019 ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sdr on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-05-01.

[Commodities] US inventories of propane/propylene to be HIGHER at end of April than at end of March ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-05-01.

[Politics] At least one of the eight current main candidates for 2020 Democratic presidential nominee to withdraw within the next three months ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-05-01.

[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] June 19 FOMC meeting ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-05-02.

[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] July 31 FOMC meeting ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-05-02.

[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] September 18 FOMC meeting ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-05-02.

[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] October 30 FOMC meeting ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-05-02.

[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] December 11 FOMC meeting ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-05-02.

The winner of the 2019 World Snooker Championship to be British ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 28 days ago; known on 2019-05-07.

[Fighting] Rose Namajunas to beat Jessica Andrade at UFC 237 ( 60% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2019-05-12.

MtG: There will be at least one reference to homosexuality per block in the next four blocks. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-28; known on 2019-05-16.

The Brexit Party to come first in Britain in the 2019 European Parliament elections ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by 6thNapoleon 8 days ago; known on 2019-05-27.

German Humanist Party will get at least one seat in the European Parliament 2019 ( 20% confidence )

Created by ZeitPolizei on 2018-02-04; known on 2019-05-27.

Virgin Galactic to pass Karman line (100km altitude) within 12 months. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-30; known on 2019-05-30.

Blue Origin's New Shepard to carry humans past Karman line (100km altitude) in the next 12 months. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-30; known on 2019-05-30.

Politics, US – In Timbs v. Indiana, the Supreme Court rules that the Excessive Fines Clause of the Eighth Amendment applies to states. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-11; known on 2019-05-30.

I will work for Unity Technologies within a year of graduation from University of Washington ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by npcuck on 2017-01-06; known on 2019-06-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in May for which data are published ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-06-01.

BJP will win no greater than 220 seats in 2019 general elections. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by roshni on 2014-10-26; known on 2019-06-01.

India's General Election for 2019 will take place after May 2019 ( 45% confidence )

Created by Nve on 2018-02-13; known on 2019-06-01.

Politics, Central America – Before 1 July 2019, Daniel Ortega ceases to be president of Nicaragua. ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known on 2019-06-01.

A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2018 ( 34% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2019-06-01.

A confirmed dip of at least 10% in the brightness of Tabby's Star (KIC 8462852) will be observed. ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-05-27; known on 2019-06-01.

Indonesia will devolve into a full-fledged islamic theocracy or decay into civil war-torn provinces largely dominated by Sharia law till the end of Ramadan 2019. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Neonblitz on 2017-05-23; known on 2019-06-04.

Merlon intelligence will raise another round of funding within two years ( 60% confidence )

Created by Peteris on 2017-06-05; known on 2019-06-05.

Apple will launch an ~4 inch iphone in the next 18 months, that has the same full screen display of the newer models and 5-7nm CPUs ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lettergram on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-06-09.

Five years from today, at least one team in the 2014 YEI fellowship will be worth $100 million or more. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2019-06-12.

Worldwide treaty banning all nuclear weapons + plan to reduce weapon stocks to 0 in place. ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2019-06-15.

My step-sister's marriage will still be intact (not separated or divorced or remarried) five years from now. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-27; known on 2019-06-27.

There will be national or global economic data that is widely regarded (by econ bloggers and mainstream media outlets) as a bursting of the higher education bubble. ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by dnti808 on 2018-06-29; known on 2019-06-29.

The combination of VMware and Dell will proceed (in spite of the October shareholder vote) with Dell paying no more than $22 billion in cash and stock to buy back the tracking stock securities that correspond with Dell's interest in VMware. ( 75% confidence )

Created by prophetofprofit on 2018-08-29; known on 2019-06-30.

[Politics] The EU to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-07-01.

[Politics] Canada to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-07-01.

Politics, UK – There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Conservative Party. ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-07-01.

Politics, UK – There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Labour Party. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-07-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in June for which data are published ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-07-01.

The first exaflop performance supercomputer will be online before July 2019. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-07-01.

[Fighting] Khabib Nurmagomedov's next fight to be against Tony Ferguson, and to happen in 2019 H1 ( 70% confidence )

Created by Cato 28 days ago; known on 2019-07-01.

Charlottesville car driver shown to be on legally prescribeable medication (such as SSRIs) ( 66% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-01.

Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 H1 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato 28 days ago; known on 2019-07-01.

[Politics] Theresa May to lose a vote of no confidence in 2019 H1 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-07-01.

“Game of Thrones” S8E1 to officially air in 2019 H1 ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-19; known on 2019-07-01.

China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-07-01.

[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 H1 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-07-01.

[Politics] The US to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato 17 days ago; known on 2019-07-01.

[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 115 ( 70% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-07-01.