Lucas and I will have written a book on negation in event semantics by the end of 2025 ( 65% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-07; known on 2025-12-31.

Bharat's carbon dioxide peaking year will be 2030. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-03; known on 2025-12-31.

Demographer Sanjeev Sanyal of Deutsche Bank predicts The Big Shrink. World’s fertility rate at replacement rate in 2025 World population peak 2055 at 8.7 billion and decline to 8.0 billion by 2100. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2025-12-31.

“The nation with the highest (nominal) gdp in the world in 2025 will be China.” ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-12-31.

[Dark Matter and Dark Energy are not dis discovered within the next four years] If this occurs interest in Dark Fluid theories grows greatly (size of the Wikipedia page and the number of references to Popular Sci articles both double within a year of the non-discovery). ( 50% confidence )

Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2025-12-31.

[Dark Matter and Dark Energy are not dis discovered within the next four years] Dark Matter and Dark Energy are not discovered within the next four years ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2025-12-31.

Quora will independently survive to 2025 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2025-12-31.

World's total fertility rate will fall to replacement rate by 2025. In 1960, women worldwide had an average of 5 children. The rate has since halved, and in 2012, women had an average of 2.5 children across all regions. The World Bank is the source. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-29; known on 2025-12-31.

Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 ( 3% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2026-01-01.

A public, high-speed (at least 4G speed), backwards compatible and equivalent internet to the current fibre-based system, in the HF radio spectrum, suitable for at least national propagation between nodes, implemented by 2025 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by luxpir on 2015-09-29; known on 2026-01-01.

1 000 million tons of cement production by 2025. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2026-01-01.

Brasil will reduce 37% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 from 2005 levels—Dilma Rouseff ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2026-01-01.

Matrix will be my preferred means of communication with a non-techie friend. They will either use a native matrix client or a service which natively federates with matrix (i.e. I won't need a bridge). ( 70% confidence )

Created by moyamo on 2021-01-26; known on 2026-01-01.

Stellar Lumens (or any Asset on Stellar) will be my preferred means of payment for some transactions (e.g. one of but not limited to online purchases, rent, point of sale, etc.) ( 30% confidence )

Created by moyamo on 2021-01-26; known on 2026-01-01.

By 2025, at least five top-ranking Western Ph.D. psychology programmes (out of a plausible 'world top 10' at the time) will require the conduction a high-quality “direct” replication attempt of a major finding in their research area. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RoryS on 2015-07-19; known on 2026-01-01.

Will it turn out by 2026 that grokking is essentially the same thing as phase shifts in thermodynamics/statistical mechanics? ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2026-01-01.

Will I belief that the bridge transform is illuminating something important about epistemology by 2026? ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2026-01-01.

China NOT to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before 2026 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by niconiconi on 2020-10-16; known on 2026-01-01.

Ketamine to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.

By 2026 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2026-01-01.

Made-for-delivery restaurants like Sprig will account for at least 10% of restaurant purchases by 2025 (https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-future-of-food-delivery-1/answer/Adam-DAngelo) ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-01; known on 2026-01-01.

US CBO: health spending >=25% of GDP in 2025. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2026-01-01.

Boson Sampling or Scattershot Boson Sampling with at least 10 photons to be performed by January 1, 2026. ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2026-01-01.

Autonomous cars will comprise 10% of greater of total KM's traveled on Australian roads by end of 2025. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-07; known on 2026-01-01.

California almond production to be less than 50% that of 2015 by 2025 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2026-01-01.

New York Times to have higher readership in 2025 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2026-01-01.

Christopher P. McKay to do IAmA on reddit by 2025 ( 51% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2026-01-01.

Intrade (or a similar real money prediction market) will be legal in the US by 2026 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-28; known on 2026-01-01.

Airbnb to be acquired by 2025 ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.

Will Wright to do an IAmA on reddit by 2025 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2026-01-01.

Boson Sampling or Scattershot Boson Sampling with at least 12 photons to be performed by January 1, 2026. ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2026-01-01.

Sony to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.

Samsung to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.

Godel Escher Bach will be available as a free online eBook by 2025 (in the way the Feynman lectures are) ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.

Number of web application developers to be higher in 2025 than 2015 ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.

AT&T buys Verizon, or vice versa. ( 28% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-03; known on 2026-01-01.

There will be a House Mouse that lives up to 6 years by 2025 ( 45% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.

There will be more elementary school teachers in 2025 than there are in 2012 (http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm ) ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.

At least one of the Voyagers to outlast the James Webb Space Telescope ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.

At least 25% of all total meals in the world will be prepared by robot chefs by 2025 ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-02; known on 2026-01-01.

'China's economy continues to boom' in 2025 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.

'Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge' by 2025 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.

'Experiments at a university have yielded the first 10 year old mice' by 2025 ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.

Voyager 1 to outlast Dawn Mission ( 75% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2026-01-01.

Nintendo to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 ( 35% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.

I will be a millionaire by 2026, 5 years after graduating college ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by thebaelfire on 2017-07-14; known on 2026-01-01.

The Hubble Telescope will deorbit before the end of 2025 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2026-01-01.

Apple's valuation in 2025 to be less than half that of its valuation in 2015 ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2026-01-01.