Upcoming Predictions
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Amazon will launch a consumer-facing courier service that competes with the likes of UPS and FedEx by 2025. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-12-21; known on 2025-01-01.
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Donald Trump starts a new political party before the end of 2024 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2021-04-05; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by n99 on 2022-10-28.
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US to withdraw from Five Eyes, conditional on UK decision to incorporate Huawei technologies into their 5G telecom infrastructure ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-02-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, The giant impact hypothesis will no longer be the dominant scientific hypothesis for the formation of the Moon.” ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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By January 1, 2025, it will be proven that any odd perfect number is divisible by the sixth power of some prime. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-24; known on 2025-01-01.
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Jon Snow alive at beginning of The Winds of Winter ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Leo on 2013-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.
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A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, the remains of several prehistoric human settlements will be discovered underwater by archaeologists. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 72% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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Usain Bolt sets a new PB in the 100m. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.” ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.” ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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Solar Probe Plus flies into Sun's corona in 2024 ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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Petabyte storage devices are available in 2024 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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'African elephants are on the brink of extinction' in 2024 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.” ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.” ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-01-01.
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UNSONG was created to incentivize name discovery, the same way that patents work for drugs in the real world, with the intention of providing an arsenal to fight Hell with ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe.” ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, at least one object larger than Mars will be discovered within 4 lightyears of our Solar System. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, water vapor will be detected in the atmosphere of at least one free-floating “rogue planet”. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.
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Obama will win the election (2012), and the GOP will become a party of lesser influence until 2024, when an independent and Republican will for a short time storm the country. ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Turtleread on 2012-04-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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By January 1st, 2025, the US employment/population ratio will be 60% or under. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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Ireland will legalize Marijuana between 2021 and 2024 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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The Long Range Strike Bomber will cost at least $846 million per plane (in FY2016 dollars). ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-10-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2025 ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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Ana is misleading to Aaron about the 'marriage' name in some significant way – e.g. it maybe is not symmetric. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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Jimmy Carter to become a centenarian ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2025-01-01.
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2025 Price of a Crunchwrap Supreme < $4 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.
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There are ten or more US Supreme Court justices by the end of 2024 ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-05; known on 2025-01-01.
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Elon Musk will have at least 12 children total (3+ more children) by 2025 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sungk2048 on 2022-07-08; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, the volume of robocalls will exceed the volume of live calls on the regular phone system ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-16; known on 2025-01-01.
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Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 —Tachi Yamada ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2025-01-01.
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2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, a living multicellular organism will be printed using 3D printing technology. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, Kanye West states that he has begun to take a mood-stabilizing medication again ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-11-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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Griswold v. Connecticut to be overturned by 2025. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-09; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 7% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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Trump massive crackdown on comedians. Bill Maher imprisoned(for comedy show) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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SLS to be cancelled outright or to launch at least once before 2025. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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yourmorals.org to last through 2025 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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Marijuana will be legal in Canada by 2025. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-09-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. ( 79% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.” ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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parabiosis will be demonstrated to increase average human lifespan ( 45% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2025-01-01.
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[2025 Price of a Crunchwrap Supreme ] <= $6.1 ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.
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Ivermectin will be shown to be ineffective as a form of prophylaxis for COVID-19 before 2024. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-09-03; known on 2025-01-01.
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27 USC 174 incremental revenues TY22+TY23 < 57.1 ( 99% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-14; known on 2025-01-01.
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Josh Hawley runs in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-02; known on 2025-01-01.