Open Philanthropy Project's December 2016 grant to Impact Justice's Restorative Justice Project will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level (United States) by 2020-01-01 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2022-01-01.

Proof that P=NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19; known on 2022-01-01.

First Tesla Cybertruck delivered to customer in 2021. ( 45% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

Rupert Murdoch will still lead Fox News after his 90th birthday ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2022-01-01.

[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $100k ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

By 1/1/2022 GE stock will be at $15 or more a share. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by bogusia_k on 2018-11-12; known on 2022-01-01.

'Water crisis in southwest USA' in 2021 ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01.

CPUs switch from silicon to carbon nanotubes by 2022 ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01.

'Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft' in 2021 ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01.

New Shepard to fly with people in 2021 ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01; known on 2022-01-01.

[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $500 ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

Waymo self-driving car service open to the public in a city outside of Arizona in 2021. ( 20% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

I will be unemployed during the entirety of 2021 ( 75% confidence )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2022-01-01.

I will have a new job by the end of the year, or will have change the project I am working on significantly ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jeedo 28 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

There won't be a significant automobile virus sighting ( 13% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known on 2022-01-01.

Congress will formally disestablish the reservations described in McGirt v. Oklahoma by the end of 2021 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Deepak on 2020-07-09; known on 2022-01-01.

Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021 ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-03; known on 2022-01-01.

There will NOT be any hyperinflation (>10% CBI compared to the previous year) in the USA in 2021 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-05-10; known on 2022-01-01.

The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 38% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01.

Will NYC's snowfall in 2020-2021 be below average? ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-12-01; known on 2022-01-01.

Between now and 2022, a religion, subsect, or religious movement will be founded and grow to over 10,000 followers that has explicit ties to Judaism/Christianity/Islam, but rejects the omnipotence of God. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2011-12-03; known on 2022-01-01.

[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $20k ( 70% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

[I will go to Italy] Before August 31 ( 40% confidence )

Created by vlad.proex on 2021-05-15; known on 2022-01-01.

Olaf Scholz will be Chancellor of Germany on 2022-01-01. ( 78% confidence )

Created by atzeje 15 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

First SLS to fly by end of 2021. ( 31% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01.

I will complete studying “A first course in general relativity” in 2021. ( 70% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2021-01-05; known on 2022-01-01.

One of the cyberwarfare viruses (Stuxnet, Flame, ??) will spill out and hit civilian US computers in a widespread way before 2022. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-30; known on 2022-01-01.

Another company besides Waymo's self-driving car service open to the public (anywhere) in 2021. ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

COVID – A single strain that circumvents immunity from earlier infections causes more than 10M infections globally by end of 2021. ( 53% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2022-01-01.

someone markets a robotic 'teddy fuxpin' terry ruxpin clone. ( 73% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-18; known on 2022-01-01.

Will Boston's snowfall in 2020-2021 be below average? ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-12-01; known on 2022-01-01.

[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $1k ( 55% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $2k ( 25% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

>1 million american refugees have entered canadian borders ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2022-01-01.

OoTS: MitD is the Snarl. ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-06-30; known on 2022-01-01.

≥1 additional major tech company (FAANG, Twitter, Airbnb, Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, Square, and others ≥~5,000 employees at my discretion) with a Bay Area HQ announces in 2021 move of HQ to either Los Angeles (actual move can happen after 2021). ( 40% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

I publish >=1 paper on (A | Bio)rXiv in 2021. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

Proof that P≠NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

Google Plus will continue to be actively supported by Google through 2021, with growth in active users. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2022-01-01.

[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $200 ( 95% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

I will remain below 67kg at end 2021. Follow on from prediction that I will be under 67kg by end February 2021. Currently 68.6kg. ( 65% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2021-01-05; known on 2022-01-01.

Language model released that uses 10x the # of parameters used by by GPT-3 in 2021. ( 40% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

ULA's Vulcan rocket to fly by end of 2021. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-12-18; known on 2022-01-01.

New Glenn to launch by end of 2021. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-14; known on 2022-01-01.

SpaceX starship has a successful test launch in which it lands without major issues (defined as causing enough damage to the ship that it can’t be reused) in 2021. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

[I will go to Italy] Before December 31 ( 80% confidence )

Created by vlad.proex on 2021-05-15; known on 2022-01-01.

Microsoft buys Cloudflare ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-24; known on 2022-01-01.

Most of the gene sites accounting for the additive heritability of g (0.6) will be identified by 2021. — Steve Hsu ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Pablo Stafforini on 2012-10-13; known on 2022-01-01.