Joseph Kabila will not be in power. ( 55% confidence )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

Merkel will win the Nobel Peace Prize, with Abdullah II of Jordan and others. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

Re: Peace Prize. Erdogan will not be so honoured. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

The Iran nuclear deal will hold (i.e. no Iranian uranium enrichment) ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

Raqqa will remain under the control of ISIL. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

Syrian ceasefire (Russian brokered, Dec 16) will not last. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

Assad will remain President of Syria. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

Total media mentions of ISIL continues to decline. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

Trump will not be impeached. ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

No criminal investigation of Hillary Clinton in 2017. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

US will not get involved in any new war with death toll of >100 US soldiers ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

Trump will end the year above 35% approval. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

Trump’s approval will be below 55% throughout the year. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

Venezuela defaults on its debt ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-26; known on 2017-12-31.

Deportations from the US will not increase by more than a quarter. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

Obamacare will not be substantially cut (i.e. no, >10% spending cut or coverage retraction). ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

F-35 program will not be curtailed. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

2016 will remain the hottest year on record. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

Bitcoin will end the year above $400. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

Brent crude will finish above $60 per barrel. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

EMDrive thrust will not be positively replicated by a reliable independent party, like Tau Zero. (Not Shawyer, White, Fetti.) ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

There will be a larger DDoS attack than the October Dyn attack. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

No attempt of a human head transplant. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

No human head transplant results in a conscious subject. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

No verified quantum supremacy this year. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

The SAV001 HIV vaccine will show significant results, Cohen's d > 0.3. ( 55% confidence )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

“Data science” hype will continue to increase, as measured by Google Trends hits / world job openings. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

A CRISPR clinical trial will be conducted on humans in the US. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

Conditional on it occurring, a CRISPR clinical trial will have disappointing results. (Cohen's d < 0.3) ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

I will get 70% or more of these predictions right. (Correct sign) ( 70% confidence )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

In 2017, I will get a Brier score of > 0.2. ( 60% confidence )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.

REINS act signed into law ( 75% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-24; known on 2017-12-31.

The Vital Study (http://www.vitalstudy.org) will find that Vitamin D at 2000IU significantly reduces mortality. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ChristianKl on 2013-01-07; known on 2017-12-31.

Trump silences twitter users from talking about climate change ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2017-12-31.

The Vital Study (http://www.vitalstudy.org) will find that fish oil significantly reduces mortality. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by ChristianKl on 2013-01-07; known on 2017-12-31.

Twitter shut down. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2017-12-31.

(@AudaciousEpigon or @Inductivist) gets suspended by twitter in 2017 along with at least one more HBD-associated with account. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-18; known on 2017-12-31.

Hyperion sells 300 nuclear reactors ( 40% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-06; known on 2017-12-31.

North Korea will not experience any significant destabilization of its regime by the end of 2017 ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by blobfish on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-12-31.

No major terrorist attack (> 100 victims) in the U.S. by the end of 2017 ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by blobfish on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-12-31.

The United States will be at war by the end of the year ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-03-12; known on 2017-12-31.

commercial scale, “netpower” allam cycle plant completed & ready for operation ( 62% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2017-12-31.

Someone senior in the trump administration goes to jail over collusion with the russians ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-21; known on 2017-12-31.

This year, Predictionbook will switch its scoring to be logarithmic ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-03-13; known on 2017-12-31.

There'll be a hollywood movie featuring mesh worm robot adversaries by end of 2017 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-11; known on 2017-12-31.

EAUW has a meeting fall quarter 2017 ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-27; known on 2017-12-31.

There will be federal laws or regulations on high speed trading in the U.S. by end of 2017 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-14; known on 2017-12-31.

4% of world economy is cryptocurrency governed ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-11; known on 2017-12-31.

Twitter will archive content of web links and tweets before 2018 ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-21; known on 2017-12-31.

GoT: gurba terlwbl xvyyf xvat bs gur veba vfynaqf ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-12-31.