Will the slope for the linear regression between range and Brier score be non-negative for all resolved Metaculus binary questions? ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-09-30; known on 2024-01-01.

At least 40 states will have some form of legal cannabis by 2024 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the variance of the forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 1.42e+49? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

I will have at least 1,000 TikTok followers by the end of 2023 ( 50% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2023-01-27; known on 2024-01-01.

I will finish the manuscript of Finish What Matters (or comparable book) in 2023, meaning it has been handed off to an editor, or delivered to a paying customer as a Preview Edition ( 60% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2023-01-27; known on 2024-01-01.

By 2024 James F will publicly express regret at the amount of time he wasted investigating the claims of various religions. ( 75% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2014-03-08; known on 2024-01-01.

Trump will be in prison or dead at the start of 2024. ( 5% confidence )

Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-14; known on 2024-01-01.

'Turkey becomes self-sufficient in energy production' by 2023 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

New Calvin and Hobbes strips released before 2024 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Omid on 2013-10-11; known on 2024-01-01.

'Borneo’s rainforests have been wiped from the map' by 2023 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

I will have my first paper accepted for publication by the end of 2024. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jakebeardsley on 2021-12-17; known on 2024-01-01.

Scientists find evidence of new homo species in North America great lakes area that lived ~14ky ago ( 5% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the median forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.64 days? ( 48% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

JS goes to work for the company in London ( 60% confidence )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-06; known on 2024-01-01.

Donald Trump is indicted anywhere in the US, for any reason ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 11 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.

I will get a job in academia in Denmark after my PhD ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ayegill on 2020-07-16; known on 2024-01-01.

I finish my PhD (wrote thesis, passed viva) ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-01; known on 2024-01-01.

Tezos to surpass Ada/Cardano in marketcap at end of 2023 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2024-01-01.

I will read one serious book on quantum field theory by end 2023 Depends on finishing my study of general relativity. ( 30% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.

Deepmind claims to pass the Turing test by the end of 2023 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-14; known on 2024-01-01.

Fracking will be banned in the United States by 2024 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lisalister on 2014-09-07; known on 2024-01-01.

First Starship attempt to reach orbit or near orbit will either never reach supersonic speed or will break up before reaching Max Q. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.

I successfully finish my Goodreads challenge (80 books) (motivation market) ( 90% confidence )

Created by kwangotango on 2023-02-12; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the median forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.18 days? ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

I will meet Miss Jyväskylä in person again. ( 40% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2022-12-04; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the slope of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to zero? ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024. ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-03-09; known on 2024-01-01.

The UK or an EU member provides fighter jets to Ukraine ( 45% confidence )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-10; known on 2024-01-01.

Will mastodonusercount@bitcoinhackers.org report more than 50 million accounts? ( 20% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2022-11-21; known on 2024-01-01.

WWIII will include Turkey as a participant ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2024-01-01.

I will meet Miss Snow White in person again. ( 35% confidence )

Created by niplav on 2022-12-04; known on 2024-01-01.

Kinetic war between US and China ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-12; known on 2024-01-01.

A Chinese military vessel docks at Thitu by 2024 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2024-01-01.

Stephanie Winston Wolkoff indicted before 2024 ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-07; known on 2024-01-01.

American troops participate in an armed conflict in Venezuela before 2024 ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-02-25; known on 2024-01-01.

US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2024-01-01.

I will weight less than 67kg at end 2023 currently 72kg ( 60% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.

https://bugs.launchpad.net/ubuntu/source/electric/bug/475181 is still a valid bug in GNU electric 9.06+dfsg-1 ( 94% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-04; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the intercept of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 0.0388? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

I will compete studying general relativity to my satisfaction by end 2023 ( 35% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.

I will have published at least four new reels for TikTok or comparable platform in the fourth quarter of 2023 ( 30% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2023-01-27; known on 2024-01-01.

By 2024, either a) group isomorphism problem will be shown to be equivalent to the graph isomorphism problem or b) the group isomorphism will be shown to be in P. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.

early election call in ontario ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.

Disclosure of interaction with intelligent aliens by January 1, 2024 ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the intercept of the aggregated linear regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to zero? ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Binance goes bankrupt ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the variance of the forecast horizon of the exponential-ish regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 478494147? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

Conditioned on his political affiliation being outed before the year 2024, Mark Zuckerberg will be outed as a Republican ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-09; known on 2024-01-01.

Geraldo Alckmin's (Brazilian vice-president-elect) role in 2023 will be regarded as one of Lula's right arms in governance ( 70% confidence )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-19; known on 2024-01-01.