Conditional on Egypt Flight 804 being a terrorist plot, the weak link will not be France or French airport security ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-07; known on 2021-06-16.

Within five years it will be generally agreed that Egypt Flight 804 was brought down by an act of terror rather than a mechanical fault. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-16; known on 2021-06-16.

Buying LinkedIn will turn out to be a bad decision for Microsoft! ( 75% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by hoka on 2016-06-25; known on 2021-06-25.

Jurassic World 3 is released in June 2021 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-06-30.

An Immunitor vaccine clinical trial will actually take place in more than 20 people. ( 7% confidence )

Created by katriel on 2020-06-22; known on 2021-06-30.

[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] nobody ( 92% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga 16 days ago; known on 2021-06-30.

[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] someone other than Ian Khama or Patrice Trovoada ( 1% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga 16 days ago; known on 2021-06-30.

[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] Patrice Trovoada ( 2% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga 16 days ago; known on 2021-06-30.

[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] Ian Khama ( 5% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga 16 days ago; known on 2021-06-30.

[REACH (or a likely successor) will be open by] EOY 2021 ( 60% confidence )

Created by enolan on 2020-05-16; known on 2021-07-01.

[REACH (or a likely successor) will be open by] EOM June 2021 ( 50% confidence )

Created by enolan on 2020-05-16; known on 2021-07-01.

Luca movie is released by Pixar in June ( 70% confidence )

Created by qznc 15 days ago; known on 2021-07-01.

There will be shortages of COVID-19 vaccine in the US ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-16; known on 2021-07-01.

[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Jun 30] S2 ( 60% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis 3 days ago; known on 2021-07-01.

[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Jun 30] CM ( 95% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis 3 days ago; known on 2021-07-01.

[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Jun 30] NKU ( 70% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis 3 days ago; known on 2021-07-01.

[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Jun 30] IC ( 99% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis 3 days ago; known on 2021-07-01.

Politics, US – 4.5% or more of absentee ballots are rejected in the November 2020 presidential election. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-31; known on 2021-07-01.

Politics, US – 1% or less of absentee ballots are rejected in the November 2020 presidential election. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-31; known on 2021-07-01.

[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Jun 30] SP ( 90% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis 3 days ago; known on 2021-07-01.

[Project will be published [or privately completed] by Jun 30] S1 ( 50% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis 3 days ago; known on 2021-07-01.

The U.S. will surpass 36 million confirmed COVID-19 cases by July 1, 2021 at 00:00 GMT, defined as total cases reported at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/. ( 62% confidence )

Created by Luke 21 days ago; known on 2021-07-02.

Etherium price ≥ $500 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by myah on 2020-07-06; known on 2021-07-06.

Lil Nas X's debut album (not his EP) will peak at #1 on the Billboard 200 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by bendini on 2019-07-12; known on 2021-07-07.

The Green Run for the SLS will either not be completed by July 15, 2021, or at least one problem will be found during the Green Run requiring redesign of some aspect of the SLS. ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-07-01; known on 2021-07-16.

British variant is >30% more transmissible than preexisting variant. ( 90% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath 41 minutes ago; known on 2021-07-16.

Russian “peacekeepers” on the ground in Latvia ( 59% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2021-07-24.

Eastern Latvia becomes its own country/Latvia splits into at least 2 countries ( 35% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2021-07-24.

Uprising/civil strife/coup/etc in latvia makes international headlines ( 59% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2021-07-24.

Apple will lose all its *NIX developer goodwill and become the equivalent of Microsoft — hated but a necessary evil. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by kyst on 2011-07-28; known on 2021-07-28.

[Politics, India] Actor Kamalhassan wins election-deciding number of seats in TamilNadu 2021 elections ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-16; known on 2021-07-31.

[Politics, India] Actor Rajinikanth wins election-deciding number of seats in TamilNadu 2021 elections ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-15; known on 2021-07-31.

< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by kjaques on 2020-07-31; known on 2021-07-31.

at least 1 person executed for tor use, tor project social contract pivot not ruled out as contributing factor ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-04; known on 2021-07-31.

By July 2021, China will invade Taiwan. The invasion will take longer than anticipated and as a result China will use biological weapons. The USA and EU will do nothing. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Random 5 days ago; known on 2021-07-31.

< 2M coronavirus deaths ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by kjaques on 2020-07-31; known on 2021-07-31.

I will have 1 or more friend daylios with tyler in July of this year ( 60% confidence )

Created by iterate-again 3 days ago; known on 2021-08-01.

India and China's border dispute escalates to a battle fought more than 100 km from the border ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-03; known on 2021-08-03.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] France ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] Cuba ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] a member of the former Soviet Union ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09.

[2020 Tokyo Olympics: The country/committee that wins the most boxing medals to be] the United States ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2021-08-09.

First virtual tourism in 7 years. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2021-08-13.

Triplebyte will no longer exist as a company on August 20 2021, and if sold will have sold for less than $48.1M. ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by enolan on 2020-03-21; known on 2021-08-20.

“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones” —Marc Andreessen ( 75% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2021-08-20.

Everybody (who wants to) is vaccinated against CoViD-19 in Germany by September ( 20% confidence )

Created by qznc 15 days ago; known on 2021-09-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $5 million in some of the animal welfare groups groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $1 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.

“Ten years from now, U.S. public libraries will circulate more than a billion print books each year” —Walt Crawford ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-12; known on 2021-09-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $3 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.