Venezuela and Cuba will join forces and sponsor marxist insurrection movements in one or more latin american countries, and those will cause at least one of {coup d'état,civil war,war} ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2022-06-06.

Iran will provide nuclear weapons to a terrorist group that will use one of them against israel or the united states ( 2% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2022-06-06.

Alex Honnold will be alive 5 years from now ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by berekuk on 2017-06-07; known on 2022-06-07.

Chesa Boudin will be recalled ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2022-06-08.

By June 8, 2022, estimated US deaths for COVID-19 based on excess mortality will be less than 5 million deaths. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-07; known on 2022-06-15.

Russia will invade Kyiv before June 2022 ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-09; known on 2022-06-16.

A bill to legalise Marijuana is passed in France before the end of June ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-08; known on 2022-06-16.

Personal – In 1 year I will move or have a firm plan to move (housing lined up, house for sale etc.) ( 60% confidence )

Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-06-28.

Personal – In 1 year I will move to Missoula, MT ( 35% confidence )

Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-06-28.

I will be using Bash in 10 years ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28.

I will be using Firefox in 10 years ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28.

I will be using Linux in 10 years ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28.

Every member of the 30 person group of which I am thinking will achieve goal X in the next nine months ( 97% confidence )

Created by DiegoDuarte on 2021-09-25; known on 2022-06-30.

Macron will not be re-elected as French President. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by phistr on 2018-04-08; known on 2022-06-30.

There will be at least one implanted device (medical or otherwise) on the market that runs a Linux-based OS within the next 10 years. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01; known on 2022-07-01.

I'll be in the process of buying a flat by the end of June 2022. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-13; known on 2022-07-01.

I will pass Italian B1 language by mid 2022 ( 60% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2020-01-01; known on 2022-07-01.

Junior doctor's will strike against the decision of a 3% rise ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by razcle on 2021-07-22; known on 2022-07-01.

ULA's Vulcan rocket to launch by July 1, 2022 ( 72% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-24; known on 2022-07-02.

Barnes & Noble still exists and operates at least 10 book stores ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Leo on 2019-07-05; known on 2022-07-05.

Open Phil makes a grant to support clean meat within 5 years. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-07-11; known on 2022-07-11.

I will visit Colombia in July ( 80% confidence )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-07-16.

US govt won't file criminal charges against a C-level executive of an American bank in America for the next 10 years ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-23; known on 2022-07-23.

Israel will bomb Iran in the next year. (airstrike/icbm etc. launched directly by the IDF or another Israeli entity) ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Rigulel on 2021-08-02; known on 2022-08-02.

All the officers charged in the George Floyd case will be exonerated or there will be a hung jury. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by unseen on 2020-08-05; known on 2022-08-04.

By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-04; known on 2022-08-04.

I will drop out of my PhD program after 2 years ( 30% confidence )

Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2022-08-12.

North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by limbo on 2020-09-02; known on 2022-08-13.

New Zealand will open borders to vaccinated travelers by August 2022 ( 70% confidence )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known on 2022-08-16.

Within the next ten years, Kepler 36b & Kepler 36c will be theorized in a peer-reviewed publication to be a case of planetary enucleation—b being the dense former core of c. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-21; known on 2022-08-21.

The LW user account “Grognor” will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-08-27; known on 2022-08-28.

Investors in the WeWork IPO will lose more than 50% of their investment within 3 years ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by sjy on 2019-08-18; known on 2022-09-01.

Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2022-09-02.

Hans Dehmelt will become a centenarian ( 20% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2022-09-16.

BTC priced at or above $25,000 five years from today ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-09-16; known on 2022-09-16.

No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2022-09-24.

It will be just as easy to view copyrighted films and tv shows online (with or without permission) in 10 years as it is now. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2022-09-26.

Within 10 years I will be able to buy a 3D printed object at a local mall. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2022-09-26.

[Personal] Student paper on total difference labeling/total difference chromatic numbers to be published by September 25, 2022 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-05; known on 2022-09-26.

I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2022-09-29.

Alex Azzi Prediction: He will earn 100k / mo $ PROFIT on the jewelry brand by October 2022 ( 70% confidence )

Created by maneesh on 2021-09-03; known on 2022-10-01.

The SpaceX BFS to Mars missions will not stick to the schedule announced at IAC 2017. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2022-10-01.

CDC official count of at least one million official covid deaths in the US by October 1, 2022. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ 6 days ago; known on 2022-10-02.

D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 10 years ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2022-10-06.

Within ten years, a planet will be discovered in at least one of the (liquid water) habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-17; known on 2022-10-18.

Within ten years, at least one planet of < 3 Earth masses will be discovered in one of the liquid water habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-17; known on 2022-10-18.

No human genome will be completely sequenced in the next 5 years. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aoeu on 2017-10-23; known on 2022-10-24.

Republicans will win back both chambers of congress in 2022 ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2022-11-08.