The Higgs boson discovered at the LHC on 4/7/12 will be found to NOT be a standard model Higgs boson. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by splorridge on 2016-02-19; known in 10 days.

UNSONG was created to incentivize name discovery, the same way that patents work for drugs in the real world, with the intention of providing an arsenal to fight Hell with ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known in 10 days.

UNSONG was created to control the spread of names (in the same way we might want to restrict anthrax or AI research) ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known in 10 days.

'2024 Infrared signals are detected coming from the centre of the Galaxy, obviously the product of a technologically advanced civilisation. All attempts to decipher them fail.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known in 10 days.

By January 1, 2025, it will be proven that any odd perfect number is divisible by the sixth power of some prime. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-24; known in 10 days.

Jon Snow alive at beginning of The Winds of Winter ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Leo on 2013-01-19; known in 10 days.

New Zealand will repeal the New Zealand Nuclear Free Zone, Disarmament, and Arms Control Act by 2025 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-01; known in 10 days.

By 2025, the remains of several prehistoric human settlements will be discovered underwater by archaeologists. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known in 10 days.

The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 72% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known in 10 days.

The Long Range Strike Bomber will cost at least $846 million per plane (in FY2016 dollars). ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by quanticle on 2015-10-28; known in 10 days.

2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known in 10 days.

The TV show “The Walking Dead” will have at least 10 completed seasons before 2025. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Mati on 2015-03-28; known in 10 days.

Solar Probe Plus flies into Sun's corona in 2024 ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 10 days.

Petabyte storage devices are available in 2024 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 10 days.

“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.” ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known in 10 days.

yourmorals.org to last through 2025 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known in 10 days.

Amazon will launch a consumer-facing courier service that competes with the likes of UPS and FedEx by 2025. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-12-21; known in 10 days.

By 2025, Kanye West states that he has begun to take a mood-stabilizing medication again ( 60% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-11-02; known in 10 days.

Griswold v. Connecticut to be overturned by 2025. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-09; known in 10 days.

Ron DeSantis runs in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. ( 81% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-25; known in 10 days.

By 2025, water vapor will be detected in the atmosphere of at least one free-floating “rogue planet”. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known in 10 days.

“By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.” ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known in 10 days.

Magnesium infused with silicon carbide nanoparticles will be used as major structural component for cars by 2025. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26; known in 10 days.

The person who tried to interfere with Flynn's testimony was Derek Harvey ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-17; known in 10 days.

GTA 6 will be set in Chicago ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known in 10 days.

By 2025, the volume of robocalls will exceed the volume of live calls on the regular phone system ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-16; known in 10 days.

Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 —Tachi Yamada ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known in 10 days.

UNSONG was created to incentivize name discovery, the same way that patents work for drugs in the real world. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known in 10 days.

TSLA price drops below $25 before 2025 ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by batemancapital on 2021-07-26; known in 10 days.

No new American bootprints on the moon by the end of Calendar Year 2024. ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2019-06-01; known in 10 days.

Current Illinois governor Bruce Rauner will be found guilty of any illegal crime ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-17; known in 10 days.

By 2025, “solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel-based alternatives do” – Vivek Wadhwa ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-15; known in 10 days.

github.com will be hacked on a large scale (more than a few user accounts) before 2025-01-01 ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-02; known in 10 days.

I will publically convert to Islam before 2025. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-07; known in 10 days.

I will publically convert to Buddhism before 2025. ( 0% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-07; known in 10 days.

firefox will add back built-in support for RSS feeds by 2025 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by finback on 2020-08-14; known in 10 days.

“age of onset of 12 years” will be removed from DSM-V diagnosis criteria for ADD/ADHD by the time DSM-VI comes out ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known in 10 days.

By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known in 10 days.

One of {Uber, Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook, Magic Leap, Coinbase} will collapse. ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known in 10 days.

By 2025, China's yuan will be backed by gold. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by danpop on 2016-03-11; known in 10 days.

I will meditate for at least 1 hour (total) each month in a 1-year period before 2025 ( 70% confidence )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-22; known in 10 days.

By 2025, proven that there exist infinitely many primes p and q with |p-q| < 200. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-30; known in 10 days.

Google's decision to remove support for third-party cookies in Chrome will be ruled an antitrust violation in the United States before 2025. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-17; known in 10 days.

Marijuana will be unscheduled, taxed and regulated similar to alcohol at a federal level in the United States before 2025. ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-01; known in 11 days.

5-sigma evidence of neutrinoless double beta decay by January 1, 2025 ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-26; known in 11 days.

I will publically convert to Roman Catholicism before 2025. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-07; known in 11 days.

I will be a teetotaler for the entire period between now and 2025-01-01 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by btrettel on 2015-07-12; known in 11 days.

SPR below 341M by end of 2024 ( 90% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-07-02; known in 19 days.