A Chinese military vessel docks at Thitu by 2024 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2024-01-01.

At least 40 states will have some form of legal cannabis by 2024 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2024-01-01.

early election call in ontario ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.

Geraldo Alckmin's (Brazilian vice-president-elect) role in 2023 will be regarded as one of Lula's right arms in governance ( 70% confidence )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-19; known on 2024-01-01.

Phthalate exposure in utero link to reduced intelligence to be confirmed/replicated by at least two other studies by January 1, 2024 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-15; known on 2024-01-01.

Scientists find evidence of new homo species in North America great lakes area that lived ~14ky ago ( 5% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2024-01-01.

Stephanie Winston Wolkoff indicted before 2024 ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-07; known on 2024-01-01.

Will the modal forecast horizon of the logistic regressions on resolved Metaculus binary questions with ≥10 predictions be greater or equal to 4.18 days? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by niplav on 2022-10-02; known on 2024-01-01.

'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

'Borneo’s rainforests have been wiped from the map' by 2023 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.

US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2024-01-01.

There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by qap on 2013-09-21; known on 2024-01-01.

Egypt will default on its debt by the end of 2023 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2024-01-01.

The duration of copyright in America will be extended before 2024 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aoeu on 2015-05-01; known on 2024-01-01.

The “Steamboat Willie” cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain in 2023 or earlier ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2016-09-12; known on 2024-01-02.

It is legal and possible to anonymously buy recreational Cannabis in Germany by December 31 2023 (at least one actual legal shop/seller, can be online) ( 20% confidence )

Created by M on 2023-01-01; known on 2024-01-02.

[I will get married in] 2023 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Leo on 2021-08-12; known on 2024-01-02.

I am still married to my current partner ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by penten on 2017-01-11; known on 2024-01-11.

Jacinda Ardern will win a new term. ( 98% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-01; known on 2024-01-16.

Joe Biden runs for president in 2024 ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known on 2024-01-16.

Trump is assassinated during his first or second term. ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by equivrel on 2017-01-29; known on 2024-02-01.

Correcting for education, IQ, income, religion, race, age, and some measure of health, rural people are more likely than urban people to commit the naturalistic fallacy. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Leo on 2014-02-09; known on 2024-02-09.

the dallas cowboys will not win the superbowl ( 100% confidence )

Created by mdr111 on 2023-08-13; known on 2024-02-15.

I will lose my virginity before I turn 25 ( 10% confidence )

Created by lazydope on 2022-04-28; known on 2024-03-01.

(John Brady) – David Hambly will buy drinks at path update 2024 for complaining about work. ( 75% confidence )

Created by johnranin@gmail.com 24 days ago; known on 2024-03-03.

If you are still in touch with kyle, then I predict that whatever relationship he is in with this guy will end within 1.5 years ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by chris.walton113@gmail.com on 2023-03-11; known on 2024-03-11.

Bank Term Funding Program renewed or other liquidity for banks' U.S. Treasuries provided on or before expiration ( 95% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf 8 days ago; known on 2024-03-12.

I will have published a paper by March 15, 2024 on Zaremba's function and weighted GM-AM inequality. ( 62% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-02-17; known on 2024-03-15.

[Effective Altruism 2024:] Existential risk reduction will have more attention than any other cause ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.

[Effective Altruism 2024:] Positively shaping AI and reducing biorisk will be the top 2 focuses within existential risk reduction (conditional on X-Risk still being a priority) ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.

[Effective Altruism 2024:] Longtermism will be the general outlook of EAs ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.

Joe Biden will be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2024 ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-03-16.

Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term) ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Stommelen on 2018-12-21; known on 2024-03-17.

StuntID will not a year state that they were overly pessimistic about the improvement rate of AI systems. ( 18% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-06; known on 2024-04-07.

I will get married at age 35, +/- 2 years. I'll be 35 in 2022. So I'll know in 2024. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-09-07; known on 2024-04-09.

there is an anti-AI rent seeking bill (something that protects an industry for non-ethical/eschaton-deterring reasons) in the next year ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by norelation on 2023-04-12; known on 2024-04-12.

I will have a paper published within 1 year on k near perfect numbers focusing on k=2. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-13; known on 2024-04-14.

The majority of public schools in Arizona will not require students to utilize spaced repetition software at any point within the next 10 years. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-25; known on 2024-04-25.

My children will have perfect aural skills because I will sing while pregnant ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by influnza on 2014-04-30; known on 2024-04-30.

I will reach 200,000 lifetime book sales by May 2024 (currently 104k) ( 10% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2023-04-26; known on 2024-05-01.

Shoigu remains as Russian Minister of Defense until the end of Putin's current term. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-27; known on 2024-05-01.

erowid.org still exists with its full archive available to the public, on May 1 2024 ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by finback on 2020-09-18; known on 2024-05-01.

Putin runs for President of Russia again in 2024 ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-01; known on 2024-05-07.

Putin serves as President of Russia for the remainder of his current term ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-01; known on 2024-05-07.

legislation will be introduced to ban trans-affirming care for trans adults in the next 2 years . ( 89% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2024-05-08.

at least one major terrorist attack on a pride event with deaths. killers will reference “grooming” as cause. ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2024-05-08.

BJP will win even the 2024 elections ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by optimaton on 2019-12-30; known on 2024-06-01.

Johnny Depp is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by oakbound on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.

Amber Heard is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by oakbound on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.