Bitcoin was created by aliens ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known in 21 days.

There will have been modular smart phones on the market before 2020. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known in 21 days.

“The average European unemployment rate for 2009-2018 (i.e., the next decade) will be at least 1% higher than U.S. unemployment rate.” Bryan Caplan ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known in 21 days.

Sam Altman: Uber, Palantir, Airbnb, Dropbox, Pinterest, and SpaceX to be collectively worth over $200b by Jan 1, 2020 ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known in 21 days.

By 2020, a former US government official will come forward to say that they were involved in planning the 9/11 attacks. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known in 21 days.

People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. —Ray Kurz ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 21 days.

A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2020-01-01; 99.8% —David Dalrymple ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known in 21 days.

“By 2020, GE crops will be grown on 10 fold more acreage than they are today, will be widely accepted by consumers and will have clearly benefited the goals of sustainable agriculture” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known in 21 days.

I will still be alive in 2020. ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known in 21 days.

'high-end gaming PCs will still have dedicated GPU chips somewhere in them in 2020, and that those chips will cost at least $200 for top-of-the-range and at least $100 for mid range' —Roko ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known in 21 days.

By 2020, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known in 21 days.

By 2020, MS's Bing will have 25% of the American search market (from 13% in 2010). ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known in 21 days.

The technology to render a human effectively invisible (i.e. apparently transparent) to the eye at a distance of less than 100 meters will be publicly demonstrated by 2020. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known in 21 days.

I think the Arab Spring will end with most of the arab countries having structured democracies ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by mxh5251 on 2013-11-12; known in 21 days.

Paul Graham: Bitcoin may have been created by a government ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-25; known in 21 days.

Gitmo will still be around by 2020 ( 46% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-01; known in 21 days.

“Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be higher than for 2009” —Intrade ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known in 21 days.

“Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be 0.2 degrees celsius (or more) higher than for 2009” —Intrade ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known in 21 days.

Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known in 21 days.

“the largest area of impact from technological change over the next decade will come from increasing communications bandwidth.” —Michael Vassar ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known in 21 days.

“energy consumption will grow on a par or less than population growth.” —W.H. Pearson ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known in 21 days.

“We will end the decade with some mobile [electronics] energy storage system with an energy density close to or better than fat metabolism.” —W.H. Pearson ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known in 21 days.

'75% probability of [eyewear computing] being mainstream, or at least not unusual, by 2020.' —orangecat ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known in 21 days.

Sous-vide cookers in half as many American households as microwaves. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known in 21 days.

“By 2020 a completely propellantless (no material particles expelled for propulsion) or “field propulsion-type” aerospace vehicle will land on the Moon.” ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known in 21 days.

Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 28 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known in 21 days.

Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known in 21 days.

“By 2020, no one will have won a Nobel Prize for work on superstring theory, membrane theory, or some other unified theory describing all the forces of nature.” ( 78% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known in 21 days.

In 2020, every single one of the 5 tallest buildings in the world will be located in China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan. ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known in 21 days.

Mandatory paternity testing in some states of the USA by 2020. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by tomokaicho on 2013-01-28; known in 21 days.

The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sdr on 2013-11-15; known in 21 days.

'Smart meters in every UK home' ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known in 21 days.

A Myst live-action movie will not be released before 2020. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-04; known in 21 days.

Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known in 21 days.

Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared. —Ray Kurzweil ( 33% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 21 days.

I will finish my Evangelion research and write my essay/book on it by 2020. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-13; known in 21 days.

'Computers will become about 50x faster' by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known in 21 days.

“China's current regime will be overthrown or reformed (another political Party come into power) before 2020” ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-07; known in 21 days.

Human whole-genome sequencing <=$100 by 2020. ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known in 21 days.

No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2020. ( 86% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known in 21 days.

I will start a PhD before 2020. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-14; known in 21 days.

There will be a new DSM version released by 2020, replacing the current DSM-V. Can be a revision (i.e., DSM-V TR) ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known in 21 days.

Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person. —Ray Kurzweil ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 21 days.

Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known in 21 days.

“I predict that by 2020 Nike will be the only remaining sneaker company” —Whutsiznaim ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known in 21 days.

“Self-replicating manufacturing machines will be commonplace by 2020.” ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known in 21 days.

“By the year 2020 solar electricity will be as cheap or cheaper than that produced by fossil fuels.” ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known in 21 days.