60% of the worlds combustion engines will run on Biofuels by the end of 2022 ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2022-12-31.

Joe Rogan will not lose his Spotify podcast (e.g., Spotify will not ask him or force him to step away) in 2022. ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-12-31.

[Marginal Revolution] Facebook Credits, or some other pseudo-currency, will become widely accepted for offline transactions throughout the world within ten years. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-03-02; known on 2022-12-31.

The US will have have laws or regulations to outlaw normal people destroying drones by end of 2022 (10 years from now) ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 33 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2022-12-31.

Cyberattack on US occurs in 2022 and is attributed to Russia by the US government by the end of the year. ( 21% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-01-26; known on 2022-12-31.

EA – The most cost effective charity on GiveWell's cost effectiveness spreadsheet is a Vitamin A supplementation charity at the end of 2022 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01.

World – Russia successfully invades Ukraine and China invades Taiwan by the end of 2022. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known on 2023-01-01.

World – A country not currently known to have nuclear weapons tests a functioning nuclear warhead in 2022 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01.

Politics, Finland – Finland starts process to join NATO by end of 2022 ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2023-01-01.

COVID – There is a new dominant strain of COVID replacing Omicron by end of 2022, and it is derived from Omicron. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01.

World – Will any new country become members of NATO in 2022? ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-25; known on 2023-01-01.

The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023 ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-27; known on 2023-01-01.

Bolsonaro manterá o mandato presidencial até o final do período para o qual foi eleito. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2019-03-28; known on 2023-01-01.

It is legal and possible to anonymously buy recreational Cannabis in Germany by December 31 2022 (at least one actual legal shop/seller, can be online) ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by M on 2021-11-30; known on 2023-01-01.

assassinations are attempted against both Georgia senators ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by technillogue on 2021-01-14; known on 2023-01-01.

Github will not censor libreboot corresponding source code off its service ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-21; known on 2023-01-01.

[Covid origin:] The origin of COVID will still be indeterminate on 1 Jan 2023 ( 65% confidence )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.

Russian boots on the ground in active combat operations in Lithuania ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2023-01-01.

'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 25 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.

Hungarian governing party Fidesz will lose the 2022 general election or lose its governing power before that election. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by korakos on 2020-11-08; known on 2023-01-01.

convictions for attempted murders of at least three of {Republicans who voted to impeach, Georgia senators, Biden, Harris} before 2023 ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by technillogue on 2021-01-14; known on 2023-01-01.

[Covid origin:] A natural origin near Wuhan is found for the virus by 2023 ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.

First Starship attempt to reach orbit or near orbit will either never reach supersonic speed or will break up before reaching Max Q. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-23; known on 2023-01-01.

'Nanotech clothing enters the mass market' by 2022 ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.

Congress authorizes a deal to send F-16s to Poland in exchange for Poland sending Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine ( 29% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-06; known on 2023-01-01.

kriscooper000 returns by 2023 and modifies their prediction about the moon exploding ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-17; known on 2023-01-01.

'Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care' by 2022 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.

'Piezoelectric nanowires are appearing in high-end products' by 2022 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.

Deafness cured by 2022 ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.

Ben: In 2022, in the US, >50% of the top 5% of citizens by income who use computers will not be using a mouse / keyboard. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-07-09; known on 2023-01-01.

an impeachment resolution against Biden is introduced before 2023 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by technillogue on 2021-01-14; known on 2023-01-01.

I will travel to Japan in 2022. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2023-01-01.

In the next ten years, self-identified anarchists will out number self-identified Greens in the US. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01.

Open AI will announce a new language model at least 100x bigger than GPT-3 (175Gb) in number of parameters before the end of 2022 ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by razcle on 2021-07-21; known on 2023-01-01.

There will be no more lockdown due to Covid in Paris before the end of 2022. ( 66% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-27; known on 2023-01-01.

A bill legalizing marijuana in the US at the federal level is signed into law by 2023. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01.

Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2023-01-01.

Will John Goodenough hit age 100? ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-06; known on 2023-01-01.

[Covid origin:] The virus is definitively found to be a bioweapon, released deliberately or accidently by 2023 (<1% chance) ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.

US to deliver Poland's MiG fighter jets to Ukraine ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-08; known on 2023-01-01.

Russian troops boots on the ground in Estonia in active combat operations ( 37% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2023-01-01.

NATO will have more than 30 full member states before January 1, 2023, ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by oakbound on 2022-03-09; known on 2023-01-01.

Los Angeles indoor mask mandate is in effect any time between now and Jan 2023 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-25; known on 2023-01-01.

Elon Musk completes acquisition of Twitter ( 58% confidence; 35 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-14; known on 2023-01-01.

No open source Minecraft client before 2023 ( 57% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2023-01-01.

Cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2023 ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2023-01-01.

SpaceX to declare bankruptcy by end of 2022 ( 2% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-03; known on 2023-01-01.

Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01.