“energy consumption will grow on a par or less than population growth.” —W.H. Pearson ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01.

India's GDP in PPP will be roughly half that of the EU or USA in 2020. —Shane Legg ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01.

“the largest area of impact from technological change over the next decade will come from increasing communications bandwidth.” —Michael Vassar ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01.

Virtual Retinal Displays become the dominant technology for heads up displays ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PrometheanFaun on 2013-05-18; known on 2020-01-01.

By 2020, it'll be common for some jobs to require your Klout score (or something similar) as part of the hiring criteria. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-10; known on 2020-01-01.

The desktop and laptop computer industry will be made obsolete by modular smart phones or mobile devices by 2020. E.g., a smart phone capable of wirelessly interfacing with a keyboard, mouse, and monitor. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.

Eliezer Yudkowsky to have at least 1 child by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by sdr on 2015-10-19; known on 2020-01-01.

The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 67% confidence; 22 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01.

The Majorana Demonstrator or its successor experiment will find 5-sigma evidence of neutrinoless double beta decay by January 1, 2020. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-11; known on 2020-01-01.

Nokia will no longer make phones for any market by start of 2020 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2020-01-01.

Mandatory paternity testing in some states of the USA by 2020. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by tomokaicho on 2013-01-28; known on 2020-01-01.

OOTS: Vaarsuvius's gender will be revealed in one of the comic strips or in the additional material of the published versions. ( 15% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by itaibn on 2013-05-26; known on 2020-01-01.

Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.

Nick Szabo is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 19% confidence; 30 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-01-01.

In Alice Grove, the Night Walker will be activated in some way. Arbitary time limit chosen. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Lambert on 2015-04-07; known on 2020-01-01.

Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.

Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.

By 2020, MS's Bing will have 25% of the American search market (from 13% in 2010). ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01.

[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 5,000 and 7,500 (2x–3x growth) ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.

Human whole-genome sequencing <=$100 by 2020. ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2020-01-01.

Another smash ballot will be announced by the end of 2019. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2020-01-01.

In 2020, every single one of the 5 tallest buildings in the world will be located in China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan. ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01.

“China's current regime will be overthrown or reformed (another political Party come into power) before 2020” ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-07; known on 2020-01-01.

Ted Cruz will not win a term as US Senator contiguous with his current term. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-10-18; known on 2020-01-01.

I will still be alive in 2020. ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01.

By 2020, marijuana will be widely used in the US to treat neurodenerative diseases and and multiple new drugs based on cannabis research will have been patented or in least final stages of FDA approval. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2020-01-01.

[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Less than 3,500 (i.e., growth to 1.4x the current total or less) ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.

80,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.

Construction of Hyperloop will be approved by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Esuba on 2014-01-24; known on 2020-01-01.

This site would become viral if the admins incorporated facebook integration (eg, your public predictions could automatically get shared on facebook). ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-14; known on 2020-01-01.

gwern.net will be up and accessible with content in 2020. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2020-01-01.

uniforms aside, I will not wear sweatpants more than half the days in 2019 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-03; known on 2020-01-01.

Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.

Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01.

“By 2020, no one will have won a Nobel Prize for work on superstring theory, membrane theory, or some other unified theory describing all the forces of nature.” ( 78% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2020-01-01.

I will finish my Evangelion research and write my essay/book on it by 2020. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-13; known on 2020-01-01.

No human beats the best Go AI in an unhandicapped competitive game by 2020 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by mortehu on 2017-01-09; known on 2020-01-01.

Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01.

Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared. —Ray Kurzweil ( 33% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01.

“By 2020, GE crops will be grown on 10 fold more acreage than they are today, will be widely accepted by consumers and will have clearly benefited the goals of sustainable agriculture” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01.

Most people own more than one P.C., though the concept of what a “computer” is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilit ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01.

“Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be higher than for 2009” —Intrade ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2020-01-01.

“Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be 0.2 degrees celsius (or more) higher than for 2009” —Intrade ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2020-01-01.

“[Chinese growth] will hit an average of 3% well before the end of the decade” —Michael Pettis ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2020-01-01.

Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person. —Ray Kurzweil ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01.

'Chinese GDP on a PPP basis will be roughly comparable to that of the US and the EU (i.e. within 25%)' in 2020 —Shane Legg ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01.

“By 2020 a completely propellantless (no material particles expelled for propulsion) or “field propulsion-type” aerospace vehicle will land on the Moon.” ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01.

'The graphics card market collapses due to them overshooting consumer demand* and possibly being subsumed by new CPUs.' by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01.

'Computers will become about 50x faster' by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01.

Arbital will merge content with LessWrong (proper or wiki) by 2020-01-01 ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2020-01-01.