10,000 CAD$ / bitcoin on non-localbitcoins exchange shown on bitcoinwatch (or equivalent if bitcoinwatch goes down) ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-12-31.

See some kind of CISA/SOPA-like legislation thrown around and some will pass, be legislation on things that are “not legislatable” or logically impossible ( 87% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.

China overtakes EU (Whatever's left of it) in at least 2 of the 3 of: GDP, math PhDs/year, cheesecake produced / capita. ( 50% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-29; known on 2017-12-31.

0 Equifax executives convicted/jailed ( 65% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 12 days ago; known on 2017-12-31.

Section 702 renewed (or replaced with something that does roughly the same thing within 6 months) ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-28; known on 2017-12-31.

At least one person will die before 2018 from injuries produced during a VR experience, and this will be publicly known. ( 63% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2016-05-17; known on 2018-01-01.

I will meet anyone in-person via okcupid, before 2018 ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by bobpage on 2017-01-07; known on 2018-01-01.

Before 2018, Bret Weinstein will be banned (even temporarily) from Patreon for “hate speech” ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bobpage on 2017-06-14; known on 2018-01-01.

If a large random portion of the Afghanistan population is forced to change gender presentation (the “sneetch” solution) by 2015, by 2018 the country will have passed anti-gender-discrimination laws for employment, housing, and education. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by puritan on 2012-09-11; known on 2018-01-01.

I will finish Stephen's Sausage Roll before 2018 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by bobpage on 2016-04-21; known on 2018-01-01.

I will go two weeks without reading logged-in Twitter this year ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bobpage on 2017-07-15; known on 2018-01-01.

I will be employed (excluding self-employment) at some point before 2018 ( 40% confidence )

Created by bobpage on 2017-06-19; known on 2018-01-01.

I will switch back to Windows for my general desktop/laptop computing before 2018-01-01 ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2016-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

Before 2018 I will put Persona 5 on my short list of favorite single-player games ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bobpage on 2017-04-06; known on 2018-01-01.

Non-test SpaceX rocket will explode in 2017, excluding explosions during controlled descent or landing of reusable stages ( 55% confidence )

Created by bobpage on 2017-01-11; known on 2018-01-01.

I will not watch another episode of Billions until 2018 ( 99% confidence )

Created by bobpage on 2017-03-14; known on 2018-01-01.

I will buy an iPhone for my own use before 2018 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by bobpage on 2016-10-06; known on 2018-01-01.

zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2018 ( 4% confidence )

Created by bobpage on 2016-10-06; known on 2018-01-01.

Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of 2017 UTC ( 83% confidence; 26 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2017-01-29; known on 2018-01-01.

I will visit Japan before 2018 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by bobpage on 2016-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

Conditional on using computers by the end of the 2017, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by bobpage on 2017-04-12; known on 2018-01-01.

I will do most of my programming in Elixir in 2017 ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bobpage on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01.

There will be another incident of at least one person getting struck and killed by a meteorite before 2018 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by bobpage on 2016-02-08; known on 2018-01-01.

Predictionbook user reads a news article on Reuters, AFP, AP, BBC, Der Spiegel, Euronews or CNN that implicates possible Russian influence behind Berlin 2016 truck attack. Even a speculation article counts. If found, please provide a link. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by kuudes on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-01-01.

I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2018 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bobpage on 2017-06-19; known on 2018-01-01.

At least one country leaves the Eurozone before 2018 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2018-01-01.

Trump is the acting president of USA on January 1, 2018 ( 91% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by mortehu on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01.

Israeli–Palestinian conflict comes to an end in 2017 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by mortehu on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01.

Myself and a certain close friend will visit Japan during 2017 ( 9% confidence )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01.

10% chance of AI by 2018 —Shane Legg ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2018-01-01.

By 2017-12-31 Sun: I do a workout in which I measure my mass and in which I do five sets of five reps of ATG squats at [143kg or 1.5x my body mass, whichever is the greater] raw. ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-01.

I will get above average on the PSAT. ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01.

Tech – Juicero brings out a new bag design which is clearly harder to hand-squeeze by the end of 2017 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-21; known on 2018-01-01.

Issa Rice source code (in its entirety) will be put into new hardware this year ( 80% confidence )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01.

There will not be another general election in the UK in 2017 ( 80% confidence )

Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2018-01-01.

P = NP problema lidz 2018. gada 1. janvarim netiks atrisinata. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by zaarcis on 2012-12-10; known on 2018-01-01.

Warren Buffet will claim that the “weapons of financial mass destruction” have executed in 2017: financial derivatives cause major problem worldwide. ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2018-01-01.

Israel annexes new land in 2017 ( 16% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01.

I envision some vision ( 30% confidence )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-01.

User “QUEER HOMOSEXUAL LESBIAN” visits Bay Area this year ( 35% confidence )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-01.

throughout dec 2017, bitcoin officially banned in russia ( 53% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01; known on 2018-01-01.

I turn into ABC zombie this year, and ALSO have intercourse with another can of spam ( 1% confidence )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-01.

at least one of the following survives 2017: SEPA, Visa, Mastercard, US federal reserve, ECB, Deutsche Bank ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01; known on 2018-01-01.

SpaceX will launch a Falcon Heavy before the end of 2017. Any launch leaving the ground satisfies this, even if it fails during ascent, or carries only a test payload. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-01-01.

More mergers & acquisitions in bitcoin in 2017 than any previous year ( 57% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-18; known on 2018-01-01.

SpaceX carries out a successful Falcon Heavy launch, defined as placing payload in or above LEO, within 2017. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-01-01.

North Korea is invaded by the end of 2017 ( 8% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-07-29; known on 2018-01-01.

SpaceX carries out a successful Falcon Heavy booster landing, of at least one booster in 2017. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-01-01.