I will meditate at least 180 hours total in 2021. ( 70% confidence )

Created by korakos on 2020-11-29; known on 2022-01-01.

Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021 ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-03; known on 2022-01-01.

Airplanes are becoming less safe in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's in the U.S. ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-07-06; known on 2022-01-01.

SpaceX starship has a successful test launch in which it lands without major issues (defined as causing enough damage to the ship that it can’t be reused) in 2021. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

One of the cyberwarfare viruses (Stuxnet, Flame, ??) will spill out and hit civilian US computers in a widespread way before 2022. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-30; known on 2022-01-01.

Between now and 2022, a religion, subsect, or religious movement will be founded and grow to over 10,000 followers that has explicit ties to Judaism/Christianity/Islam, but rejects the omnipotence of God. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2011-12-03; known on 2022-01-01.

There won't be a significant automobile virus sighting ( 13% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known on 2022-01-01.

First Tesla Cybertruck delivered to customer in 2021. ( 45% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

Microsoft buys Cloudflare ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-24; known on 2022-01-01.

North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19; known on 2022-01-01.

[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $100k ( 2% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

Congress will formally disestablish the reservations described in McGirt v. Oklahoma by the end of 2021 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Deepak on 2020-07-09; known on 2022-01-01.

someone markets a robotic 'teddy fuxpin' terry ruxpin clone. ( 73% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-18; known on 2022-01-01.

Will Boston's snowfall in 2020-2021 be below average? ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-12-01; known on 2022-01-01.

[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $5k ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

I publish >=1 paper on (A | Bio)rXiv in 2021. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

ULA's Vulcan rocket to fly by end of 2021. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-12-18; known on 2022-01-01.

Utah public lands lawsuit reaches US Supreme Court ( 50% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-04; known on 2022-01-01.

OoTS: MitD is the Snarl. ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-06-30; known on 2022-01-01.

'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' —Steven Pinker ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-03; known on 2022-01-01.

'Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft' in 2021 ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01.

The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 38% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01.

Nawa will publish data justifying their press release's claims of record-high battery energy density in 2021. ( 30% confidence )

Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-27; known on 2022-01-01.

First SLS to fly by end of 2021. ( 31% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01.

[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $10k. ( 80% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project's December 2016 grant to Impact Justice's Restorative Justice Project will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level (United States) by 2020-01-01 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2022-01-01.

New Glenn rocket to fly putting a payload into orbit by end of 2021. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01.

Rupert Murdoch will still lead Fox News after his 90th birthday ( 49% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2022-01-01.

I will complete studying “A first course in general relativity” in 2021. ( 70% confidence )

Created by waveman on 2021-01-05; known on 2022-01-01.

Proof that P=NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $200 ( 95% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

Google Plus will continue to be actively supported by Google through 2021, with growth in active users. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2022-01-01.

Proof that P≠NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

China attacks Taiwan in 2021. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

New Shepard to fly with people in 2021 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01; known on 2022-01-01.

Jair Bolsonaro sofre impeachment antes do final de 2021 ( 45% confidence )

Created by rapinoinfeliz on 2020-07-22; known on 2022-01-01.

MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-03; known on 2022-01-01.

New Glenn to launch by end of 2021. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-14; known on 2022-01-01.

Another baby born from an embryo publicly declared to have been modified with CRISPR (or another gene editing complex). ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01.

US bicycle mode share will increase in the 2020 Census over 2010 ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-05-11; known on 2022-01-01.

I will be a member of a cryonics organisation before 2022. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-14; known on 2022-01-01.

Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-11-08; known on 2022-01-01.

Literature – Part three of the Kingkiller Chronicle trilogy is not going to be released before 2022-01-01. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by NickN on 2020-08-16; known on 2022-01-01.

“within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.” —Dennis Mangan ( 65% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-21; known on 2022-01-01.

sometime in 2021, the FDA grants a pharmaceutical company general approval for coronavirus vaccines which can adapt to changing virus strains without going through the entire FDA approval process again ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2022-01-02.

Sometime this year, the South African and Brazilian strains – or other new strains with similar dynamics – will be a majority of coronavirus cases in the US ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2022-01-02.

Data published by Cisco in 2020 or 2021 about total volume of IP traffic per month in 2020 will show an amount more than 10% higher than their prediction of 228 EB. ( 39% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-05; known on 2022-01-02.

conditional on DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.95.1.128 being replicated with a non W.E.I.R.D. sample of test subjects & n>=400, test subjects will be more or less accurate in assessment of likelihood of assistance given (prdcted M>24.5 or M<16.6) ( 60% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-16; known on 2022-01-02.

Highest exact match rate on SQuAD 2.0 >92.0 on January 14, 2022 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/). ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-14.