I will be alive on my 33rd birthday. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2022-01-30.

Business, US – At close of trading on 2022-01-31, GameStop (GME) is worth less than 100 USD. ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known on 2022-02-01.

Average world temperature increases relative to 2020 as measured by NASA with Lowess smoothing (https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/). ( 99% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-02-01.

Germany to cancel phase-out of nuclear power by 2022. ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2022-02-01.

The Californian 2021 fire season will burn more than 4,257,863 acres (as reported by a CalFire page such as https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/ or https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2020/) ( 30% confidence )

Created by lithp on 2021-04-14; known on 2022-02-01.

Finance, US – DTCC found guilty by any kind of court or regulator for misconduct relating to handling of “counterfeit” GameStop (GME) shares by deadline. ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-02; known on 2022-02-02.

World War 3 next year ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2022-02-06.

bitcoin worth 66k+ in a year ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2022-02-08.

there will not be a UK covid lockdown within the next 5 months ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gurgus 8 days ago; known on 2022-02-13.

Bugzy Malone will release a #1 UK album or EP in the next 5 years. (If he dies or goes to jail for more than 6 months this prediction will be withdrawn) ( 70% confidence )

Created by bendini on 2017-02-14; known on 2022-02-14.

New Zealand will open borders to vaccinated travelers by February 2022 ( 40% confidence )

Created by enochthechronocom 13 days ago; known on 2022-02-15.

More than 400 Palestinians in 2021 will be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ihavenoahidea 5 days ago; known on 2022-02-15.

http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years —Jeremy Keith ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-19; known on 2022-02-18.

The popularity of professional American Football (with the huge men and body armor) will decline, and will be overtaken by Soccer (which the rest of the world calls Football) ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2022-02-28.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] CDU or CSU (conservative party) ( 40% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] Bündnis '90 die Grünen (green party) ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] none of these parties ( 1% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] AfD (nationalist party) ( 2% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] Die Linke (socialist party) ( 3% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] FDP (liberal party) ( 2% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] SPD (social democratic party) ( 12% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.

I will lose my virginity before I turn 23 ( 25% confidence )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2022-03-01.

Stripe has an IPO before 3/1/22 ( 67% confidence )

Created by finback on 2020-09-24; known on 2022-03-01.

5% of US energy production will be from solar sources by 2022. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by atomicspaceman on 2017-02-08; known on 2022-03-05.

Wind will produce 7% or more of consumed US power by 2022. Linked to my believe the US will have no transcontinental transmission strategy by then. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by atomicspaceman on 2017-02-08; known on 2022-03-05.

Covid-19 escaped from a lab ( 30% confidence )

Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05.

Covid-19 was intentionally released from a lab ( 10% confidence )

Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05.

The wuhan wet market did not facilitate the spread of Covid-19 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05.

China knew origins of Covid-19 before the rest of the world and did not disclose that information ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05.

Joe Biden's renewed interest in the Lab Leak theory was entirely politically motivated. ( 75% confidence )

Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05.

I will judge my decision to pay for wop+ to be a good investment in 18 months ( 83% confidence )

Created by grin on 2020-09-07; known on 2022-03-07.

i think accountant will change their mind ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Sesq on 2017-03-24; known on 2022-03-24.

Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by OisinMoran on 2017-10-19; known on 2022-03-27.

Borders of Mali modified in the next ten years ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2022-03-27.

I will still be using Prediction Book in 4 year's time. ( 58% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-29; known on 2022-03-29.

A guest character (not from a Blizzard universe) to be released in Heroes of the Storm within 5 years, conditional on the game still up by that time. ( 7% confidence )

Created by timujin on 2017-03-29; known on 2022-03-29.

Portugal's Covid Vaccination – I (a healthy 27 year old who didn't yet get the 1st dose) will get my 2nd dose during 2022 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by LouisLC on 2021-05-02; known on 2022-04-01.

India's GDP for 2021-2022 will be higher than 2020-2021 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sam_jaques on 2021-01-08; known on 2022-04-01.

Blue Origin's New Shepard to carry humans past Karman line (100km altitude) by April 15, 2022 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-10-13; known on 2022-04-15.

eth at 5k+ in a year ( 50% confidence )

Created by htaussig on 2021-04-19; known on 2022-04-19.

Marine le Pen will win the French presidential election in 2022. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tot 15 days ago; known on 2022-05-01.

Emmanuel Macron will with the French presidential elections in 2022. ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Tot 15 days ago; known on 2022-05-01.

Éric Zemmour ne se présentera pas ou n'atteindra pas 5% au premier tour des élections présidentielles de 2022. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Tot about 8 hours ago; known on 2022-05-01.

Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-05-01; known on 2022-05-01.

Tesla RoboTaxi project will fail / be discontinued by 2 May 2022 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by separo on 2019-05-19; known on 2022-05-02.

A paper on total difference labeling of infinite graphs will be published with me as a coauthor by May 15, 2022 ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-18; known on 2022-05-15.

Yeezy x Rick and Morty sneaker collaboration in the next 3 years ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by prophetofprofit on 2019-05-17; known on 2022-05-17.

The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. The IMF will be the source of data. ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-17; known on 2022-05-28.

[Australian Politics] The Australian Labor Party will win the next Federal Election ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jeefy01 on 2019-06-12; known on 2022-05-30.