[US FOMC July rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01.

[US FOMC July rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01.

Before 1 August 2019, Facebook announces that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO. Leave of a absence counts. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-09; known on 2019-08-01.

Politics, US – In Madison v. Alabama, the Supreme Court rules that the State of Alabama may not execute Vernon Madison. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known on 2019-08-01.

[US FOMC July rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in July for which data are published ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-08-01.

[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through July EOM ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01.

[Politics] A Democratic candidate other than Yang to propose UBI before the second debate ( 15% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-08-01.

[Personal] I will get a dog before July EOM ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-08-01.

[US Politics] Democratic candidates participating in the July debate to outnumber those participating in the June debate ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato 10 days ago; known on 2019-08-01.

[Politics] 10 or more candidates to qualify for second Democratic primary debate ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-08-01.

[US Politics] At least one Democratic candidate who participates in the first (June) debate to end/suspend campaign before the second (July) debate ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-08-01.

I will still think Ouroboros is a bad design in six months ( 70% confidence )

Created by enolan on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-08-01.

TSLA Q2 2019 net income will be $150M or less. ( 60% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-08-01.

[Politics] Andrew Yang to appear in July 2019 Democratic candidates' primary debate ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-08-01.

Microsoft is gonna change its OS's name from Windows to something else within 5 years because people hate Windows. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2019-08-02.

[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] under $40 ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-07.

iPen and iPaper from Apple in 5 years ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2019-08-13.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-08-14.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-08-14.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-08-14.

Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 31 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2019-08-16.

Soyuz MS-14 to launch as scheduled on August 22, 2019 ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-15; known on 2019-08-22.

there will be a non-hype blackpoolhotelgate (non-hype being roughly that the customers are unhappy about things not being run well/the owner being incompetent, and not including [only people uninvolved discoursing about it]) ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Somni on 2018-08-23; known on 2019-08-22.

Josh Sokol-Rubenstein can correctly recall the hooks for LABELLA, GLABELLA, and FLABELLA in OSPD5 tournament Scrabble, upon seeing this prediction in 2 years. ( 45% confidence )

Created by quatrefoil on 2017-08-23; known on 2019-08-23.

I can correctly recall the hooks for LABELLA, GLABELLA, and FLABELLA in OSPD5 tournament Scrabble, upon seeing this prediction in 2 years. ( 10% confidence )

Created by quatrefoil on 2017-08-23; known on 2019-08-24.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for July 2019 to exceed 50% ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 19 days ago; known on 2019-08-31.

My brother quits / is fired from his new job for what I determine to be BS reasons ( 90% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01; known on 2019-09-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in August for which data are published ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-09-01.

[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through August EOM ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-01.

Qatar to be a member of OPEC at August 2019 EOM ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-01.

Indonesia to be a member of OPEC at August 2019 EOM ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-01.

OPEC to have exactly 14 members at August 2019 EOM ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-01.

OPEC to have fewer than 14 members at August 2019 EOM ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-01.

Harley-Davidson to release its electric motorcycle (Project Livewire) as scheduled in August 2019 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-09-01.

OPEC to have more than 14 members at August 2019 EOM ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-01.

[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] under $40 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07.