U.S. 10yr Treasury yield dips below 0.5% in second quarter of 2020 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by batemancapital 10 days ago; known on 2020-06-30.

Politics, US – In deciding June Medical Services v. Russo, SCOTUS explicitly overrules its ruling in Whole Women’s Health v. Hellerstedt, declaring it should have been decided otherwise. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-06; known on 2020-07-01.

All US-China trade war tariffs (imposed since June 2018) are not in effect ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-01.

Politics, US – SCOTUS upholds the fifth circuit's judgement in June Medical Services v. Russo. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-06; known on 2020-07-01.

[Personal] I will read at least 32 books in 2020 H1 ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2020-07-01.

Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination ( 15% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-07-01.

Personal – I weigh in at or below 70kg at least once before start of 2020-07-01. ( 85% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-08; known on 2020-07-01.

I will weigh more than 190 lbs on 2020-07-01 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-07-11; known on 2020-07-02.

There will be at least 160.000 confirmed cases of Coronavirus in China on July 1, 2020. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sty.silver 6 days ago; known on 2020-07-04.

Corbyn to become PM ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2016-07-12; known on 2020-07-05.

Yasuhiro Nakasone will become the longest-lived Prime Minister of Japan ( 15% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2020-07-13.

After the Democratic nominee is chosen, I will still assign between 35% and 45% to the chance of Trump winning the general election (currently 40%). ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15.

Amy Klobuchar is the US 2020 Democratic nominee ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15.

Mike Bloomberg is the US 2020 Democratic Party nominee ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15.

The Democratic Nominee will be someone other than Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Yang, Klobuchar, or Bloomberg ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Bernie Sanders ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Kamala Harris ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Pete Buttigieg ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Elizabeth Warren ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Cory Booker ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Beto O'Rourke ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Julián Castro ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Amy Klobuchar ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Kirsten Gillibrand ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Joe Biden ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Andrew Yang ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Jay Inslee ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Tulsi Gabbard ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16.

[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Other ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16.

uBeam will not (within 5 years) ship a wireless charging product that transmits more than 5W to a portable receiver. ( 90% confidence )

Created by James Babcock on 2015-07-30; known on 2020-07-16.

The Democratic Nominee for president at the end of the 2020 Primaries will not support Medicare-for-All (as distinct from 'for all who want it', 'public option', or 'Path to M4A') ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jackzilla on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-07-17.

[US politics] Both the presidential and VP nominees for the Democratic party to be women ( 12% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-09; known on 2020-07-17.

BTCUSD will exceed 1,900,000 on 18 July 2020, as predicted by John McAfee ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sjy on 2017-07-18; known on 2020-07-18.

[Fighting] Dana White to be president of the UFC as of 2020-07-23 ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-07-24.

[Fighting] Frank Shamrock to be in the UFC Hall of Fame as of 2020-07-23 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-07-24.

France holds 'leave EU' referendum ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2020-07-24.

The 2020 Olympics will not be cancelled ( 53% confidence; 13 wagers )

Created by gurgus on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-07-24.

Rainfall in 2020 will be at least 49% of historic levels in California. (Using the standard June to July year) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-23; known on 2020-07-25.

[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 37% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30.

[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30.

[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30.

< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 83% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by kjaques 17 days ago; known on 2020-07-31.

<2M coronavirus deaths. ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kjaques 17 days ago; known on 2020-07-31.

[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] KOSPI (now 2049) ( 52% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31.

[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] OMX Tallinn (now 1236) ( 54% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31.

[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] NSE-All Share Nigeria (now 26584) ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31.

[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] ASX 200 (now 6607) ( 47% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31.

[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] SSI Shanghai (now 2973) ( 47% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31.

[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] DJIA (now 26756) ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31.

[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] CAC 40 (now 5628) ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31.