PredictionBook: Upcoming Predictions

'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 25 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.

I will travel to Japan in 2022. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2023-01-01.

No open source Minecraft client before 2023 ( 57% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2023-01-01.

There will be more janitors in the U.S. in 2022 than there will be in 2012 (http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm ) ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2023-01-01.

[Covid origin:] Definitive evidence will be found concerning an accidental lab escape by 2023 ( 32% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.

Github will not censor libreboot corresponding source code off its service ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-21; known on 2023-01-01.

convictions for attempted murders of at least three of {Republicans who voted to impeach, Georgia senators, Biden, Harris} before 2023 ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by technillogue on 2021-01-14; known on 2023-01-01.

'Nanotech clothing enters the mass market' by 2022 ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.

[Covid origin:] The origin of COVID will still be indeterminate on 1 Jan 2023 ( 65% confidence )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.

'Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care' by 2022 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.

'Piezoelectric nanowires are appearing in high-end products' by 2022 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.

Deafness cured by 2022 ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.

Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01.

I will weigh an average of 67 kg in the last quarter of 2022. Currently 74.4kg ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by waveman 17 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

assassinations are attempted against both Georgia senators ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by technillogue on 2021-01-14; known on 2023-01-01.

[Covid origin:] A natural origin near Wuhan is found for the virus by 2023 ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.

Cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2023 ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2023-01-01.

Will John Goodenough hit age 100? ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-06; known on 2023-01-01.

Open AI will announce a new language model at least 100x bigger than GPT-3 (175Gb) in number of parameters before the end of 2022 ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by razcle on 2021-07-21; known on 2023-01-01.

The ITER fusion reactor will have first plasma by the end of 2022. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2023-01-01.

SpaceX sends a passenger flight to Mars by 2023. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-22; known on 2023-01-01.

Ben: In 2022, in the US, >50% of the top 5% of citizens by income who use computers will not be using a mouse / keyboard. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-07-09; known on 2023-01-01.

Astronomers will detect a planet where alcohol is thought to rain from the sky. ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-07-12; known on 2023-01-01.

NIST standardizes Kyber and Dilithium ( 70% confidence )

Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-14; known on 2023-01-01.

SpaceX to declare bankruptcy by end of 2022 ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ 15 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

A male friend of mine will marry a woman, only to have it revealed later that she's transitioning to being a man ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-25; known on 2023-01-01.

New Glenn to fly in 2022. ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-02-25; known on 2023-01-01.

Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2023-01-01.

“advances in personal aviation will cause the cost of land in big sur, ca and other remote areas within 250mi of major metropolitan cities to at least triple within the next 15 years – outperforming the s&p 500 over that period.” ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-01-01.

BFR to launch before 2022. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2023-01-01.

Russian troops boots on the ground in Estonia in active combat operations ( 37% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2023-01-01.

Chen-Ning Yang to become a centenarian ( 20% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2023-01-01.

[Covid origin:] The virus is definitively found to be a bioweapon, released deliberately or accidently by 2023 (<1% chance) ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.

Jonathan Rosin will be sentenced to at least a year in jail by January 1, 2023 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-11; known on 2023-01-01.

I will start studying quantum field theory by end 2022 ( 40% confidence )

Created by waveman 17 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

First Starship attempt to reach orbit or near orbit will either never reach supersonic speed or will break up before reaching Max Q. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ 27 days ago; known on 2023-01-01.

In the next ten years, self-identified anarchists will out number self-identified Greens in the US. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01.

Uber's valuation to be less than half that of its 2015 valuation by 2022 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-09; known on 2023-01-01.

Hungarian governing party Fidesz will lose the 2022 general election or lose its governing power before that election. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by korakos on 2020-11-08; known on 2023-01-01.

World of Warcraft will be shut dow before 2023 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by silacoid on 2015-08-05; known on 2023-01-01.

There will be no more lockdown due to Covid in Paris before the end of 2022. ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-27; known on 2023-01-01.

AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023 ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.

Food shortages, resurgent Islamic radicalism, and a torrent of oil revenues will cause an “Arab Spring” movement to overthrow the Saudi Arabian government (http://rationalconspiracy.com/2012/11/23/the-real-america-of-2022/) ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2023-01-01.

In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2022 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01.

[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] strongly negative ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )