gwern.net will be up and accessible with content in 2020. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known in 21 days.

'75% probability of [eyewear computing] being mainstream, or at least not unusual, by 2020.' —orangecat ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known in 21 days.

Apple will sell smart glasses before 2020. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known in 21 days.

The desktop and laptop computer industry will be made obsolete by modular smart phones or mobile devices by 2020. E.g., a smart phone capable of wirelessly interfacing with a keyboard, mouse, and monitor. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known in 21 days.

2019: HIV is able to be thrown into remission in HIV+ individuals carrying the HIV-1 strain, only. Further research is needed for HIV-2. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known in 21 days.

There will be (physical) Google stores before 2020. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known in 21 days.

Halbig case does not get heard by US supreme court ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known in 21 days.

Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate. —Ray Kurzweil ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 21 days.

The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race. —Ray Kurzweil ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 21 days.

Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.). —Ray Kurzweil ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 21 days.

People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 21 days.

These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver “augmented reality” and “virtual reality” in three different ways. First, they can project “heads-up-displays” (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the en ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 21 days.

People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. —Ray Kurz ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 21 days.

Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person. —Ray Kurzweil ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 21 days.

I will have at least one more math paper published before the end of 2019. ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-12-21; known in 21 days.

Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared. —Ray Kurzweil ( 33% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 21 days.

Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known in 21 days.

'Smart meters in every UK home' ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known in 21 days.

Quora will be bankrupt or acquired by a third party before 2020. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by sflicht on 2016-08-16; known in 21 days.

80,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known in 21 days.

“By the year 2020, the tickets to space travel – at the least to Moon, will be available over the counter.” ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known in 21 days.

“10^18 FLOPS by 2020” —Shane Legg ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known in 21 days.

Tentative announcements of the discovery of intelligent life in other solar systems will appear in peer reviewed journals by 2020. ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-05-25; known in 21 days.

Construction of Hyperloop will be approved by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Esuba on 2014-01-24; known in 21 days.

The tentative announcement of possible technological civilizations outside our solar system will precede widely-accepted confirmation of extraterrestrial life within our own solar system. (based on announcements in peer-reviewed jounals) ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-05-25; known in 21 days.

By 2020, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known in 21 days.

“I predict that by 2020 Nike will be the only remaining sneaker company” —Whutsiznaim ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known in 21 days.

Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known in 21 days.

Saudi Arabia and Iran will be at war before the end of 2020. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-26; known in 21 days.

Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known in 21 days.

Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known in 21 days.

Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known in 21 days.

I will finish my Evangelion research and write my essay/book on it by 2020. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-11-13; known in 21 days.

A nuclear bomb (primary, not dirty) will be detonated, anywhere on earth, immediately killing more than 100 people, any time between 2015/1/1 and 2020/1/1. ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known in 21 days.

By 2020, it'll be common for some jobs to require your Klout score (or something similar) as part of the hiring criteria. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-10; known in 21 days.

The Hubble Telescope will not deorbit before January 1, 2020. ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known in 21 days.

“Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be higher than for 2009” —Intrade ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known in 21 days.

The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 67% confidence; 22 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known in 21 days.

“Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be 0.2 degrees celsius (or more) higher than for 2009” —Intrade ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known in 21 days.

Mandatory paternity testing in some states of the USA by 2020. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by tomokaicho on 2013-01-28; known in 21 days.

In 2020, every single one of the 5 tallest buildings in the world will be located in China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan. ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known in 21 days.

Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland to leave the Euro —Michael Pettis ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known in 21 days.

'Chinese GDP on a PPP basis will be roughly comparable to that of the US and the EU (i.e. within 25%)' in 2020 —Shane Legg ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known in 21 days.

India's GDP in PPP will be roughly half that of the EU or USA in 2020. —Shane Legg ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known in 21 days.

'The graphics card market collapses due to them overshooting consumer demand* and possibly being subsumed by new CPUs.' by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known in 21 days.

'Computers will become about 50x faster' by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known in 21 days.

'high-end gaming PCs will still have dedicated GPU chips somewhere in them in 2020, and that those chips will cost at least $200 for top-of-the-range and at least $100 for mid range' —Roko ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known in 21 days.

Sous-vide cookers in half as many American households as microwaves. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known in 21 days.