“within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.” —Dennis Mangan ( 65% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-07-21; known on 2022-01-01.

Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-11-08; known on 2022-01-01.

No widespread (>1%) issues with fertility as a result of the COVID-19 vaccine (e.g. pfizer) will be known (i.e. reported by reputable US based source e.g. NYT,FDA or equivalent) by 2022. ( 97% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Ghodith on 2021-05-14; known on 2022-01-01.

I will be a member of a cryonics organisation before 2022. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-14; known on 2022-01-01.

Literature – Part three of the Kingkiller Chronicle trilogy is not going to be released before 2022-01-01. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by NickN on 2020-08-16; known on 2022-01-01.

Housing crash (average price down at least 30%) in Ontario, Canada by the end of the year. ( 20% confidence )

Created by ianc on 2021-05-09; known on 2022-01-02.

Sometime this year, the South African and Brazilian strains – or other new strains with similar dynamics – will be a majority of coronavirus cases in the US ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2022-01-02.

sometime in 2021, the FDA grants a pharmaceutical company general approval for coronavirus vaccines which can adapt to changing virus strains without going through the entire FDA approval process again ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2022-01-02.

Data published by Cisco in 2020 or 2021 about total volume of IP traffic per month in 2020 will show an amount more than 10% higher than their prediction of 228 EB. ( 39% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-05; known on 2022-01-02.

conditional on DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.95.1.128 being replicated with a non W.E.I.R.D. sample of test subjects & n>=400, test subjects will be more or less accurate in assessment of likelihood of assistance given (prdcted M>24.5 or M<16.6) ( 60% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-16; known on 2022-01-02.

Highest exact match rate on SQuAD 2.0 >92.0 on January 14, 2022 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/). ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-14.

The average degree of automation changes for key US professions in between December 2020 and January 2022 by >1 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/). ( 55% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-14.

Top price performance (in G3D Mark / $) of GPU ≥60 on January 14, 2022 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark—of-gpu/). ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-14.

RSA-1024 will be factored by 2021-12-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by evand on 2021-03-04; known on 2022-01-15.

[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 2.5M ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15.

[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 5M ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15.

[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 40M ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15.

[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 20M ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15.

[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 10M ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15.

euro and us dollar will form a new currency within 10 years (both will be supplanted by a common currency shared by the USA and some current Euro members) ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by siscoking on 2012-01-04; known on 2022-01-16.

I will graduate College ( 100% confidence )

Created by SRA311CK on 2021-04-04; known on 2022-01-16.

SpaceX to beat Boeing in their informal space race (first boots on Mars). ( 80% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-12-12; known on 2022-01-16.

No Trump family indictments in 2021 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2022-01-30.

I will be alive on my 33rd birthday. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2022-01-30.

Business, US – At close of trading on 2022-01-31, GameStop (GME) is worth less than 100 USD. ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known on 2022-02-01.

Germany to cancel phase-out of nuclear power by 2022. ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2022-02-01.

Average world temperature increases relative to 2020 as measured by NASA with Lowess smoothing (https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/). ( 99% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-02-01.

The Californian 2021 fire season will burn more than 4,257,863 acres (as reported by a CalFire page such as https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/ or https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2020/) ( 30% confidence )

Created by lithp on 2021-04-14; known on 2022-02-01.

Finance, US – DTCC found guilty by any kind of court or regulator for misconduct relating to handling of “counterfeit” GameStop (GME) shares by deadline. ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-02; known on 2022-02-02.

World War 3 next year ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2022-02-06.

bitcoin worth 66k+ in a year ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2022-02-08.

Bugzy Malone will release a #1 UK album or EP in the next 5 years. (If he dies or goes to jail for more than 6 months this prediction will be withdrawn) ( 70% confidence )

Created by bendini on 2017-02-14; known on 2022-02-14.

http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years —Jeremy Keith ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-19; known on 2022-02-18.

The popularity of professional American Football (with the huge men and body armor) will decline, and will be overtaken by Soccer (which the rest of the world calls Football) ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2022-02-28.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] CDU or CSU (conservative party) ( 40% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] Die Linke (socialist party) ( 3% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] SPD (social democratic party) ( 12% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.

I will lose my virginity before I turn 23 ( 25% confidence )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] none of these parties ( 1% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] Bündnis '90 die Grünen (green party) ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] FDP (liberal party) ( 2% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.

[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] AfD (nationalist party) ( 2% confidence )

Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01.

Stripe has an IPO before 3/1/22 ( 67% confidence )

Created by finback on 2020-09-24; known on 2022-03-01.

Wind will produce 7% or more of consumed US power by 2022. Linked to my believe the US will have no transcontinental transmission strategy by then. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by atomicspaceman on 2017-02-08; known on 2022-03-05.

5% of US energy production will be from solar sources by 2022. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by atomicspaceman on 2017-02-08; known on 2022-03-05.

I will judge my decision to pay for wop+ to be a good investment in 18 months ( 83% confidence )

Created by grin on 2020-09-07; known on 2022-03-07.

i think accountant will change their mind ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Sesq on 2017-03-24; known on 2022-03-24.

Borders of Mali modified in the next ten years ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2022-03-27.

Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by OisinMoran on 2017-10-19; known on 2022-03-27.

I will still be using Prediction Book in 4 year's time. ( 58% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-29; known on 2022-03-29.