PredictionBook: Upcoming Predictions

[Regardless of who is president] The presidential nominee will have a beginning approval rating lower than 57% ( 68% confidence )

Created by Ragnarok_Reverted 28 days ago; known on 2020-12-31.

[Regardless of who is president] There will be riots and/or civil unrest in the US, more extreme or on a larger scale than the the BLM protests and riots in the next four years. ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Ragnarok_Reverted 28 days ago; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by anandjeyahar 22 days ago.

Crypto-to-crypto trades may be considered (by the IRS) like-kind (not trigger capital gains). Void if it is not litigated or the IRS never delivers an official judgement. ( 2% confidence )

Created by lavalamp on 2017-11-30; known on 2020-12-31.

25th amendment used to take Trump out before term is over https://twitter.com/ElliNude/status/918196663314874369 ( 17% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31.

At least some class of felons(for example those on a sex offender registry with convictions of violent crime) in the US required to get microchips implanted in them upon release ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-16; known on 2020-12-31.

Humboldt Fog will be super popular (written up as super trendy in a mainstream publication) at some point before 2020 ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Benquo on 2015-02-14; known on 2020-12-31.

“A March 2004 article stated: "More than 3.5 billion years after nature transformed non-living matter into living things, populating Earth with a cornucopia of animals and plants, scientists say they are finally ready to try their hand at creating life. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-12-31.

Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence ( 3% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31.

Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 ( 16% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by daveisright on 2020-07-02; known on 2020-12-31.

“By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible method of electrical power generation, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy than was used to ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-28; known on 2020-12-31.

“I will continue to post on LW at least once a month…in 2020” —magfrump ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-12-31.

“there is a student at 75% or so of high schools in 2020 that will take bets on future predictions on any subject” —magfrump ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-12-31.

“By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2020-12-31.

Another Supreme Court justice will retire before the end of the year. ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by contra on 2020-07-01; known on 2020-12-31.

The Australian government releases a version of the COVIDSafe app which supports Apple’s iOS contact tracing API in 2020 ( 40% confidence )

Created by sjy on 2020-05-21; known on 2020-12-31.

“in the year 2020, we're not even close to the kind of disaster you describe – a convergence of three disasters: global currency collapse, significant warfare between rich and poor, and environmental disasters of some significant size. We won't even be cl ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-12-31.

KPCB’s Internet Trends Report will hit 1,800 pages by 2020 ( 34% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01; known on 2020-12-31.

France to experience a Covid “second wave” in 2020 (any count of daily deaths > 800 by end of calendar year) ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-04-21; known on 2020-12-31.

Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020 ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sjy on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31.

Gamestop will reopen before the end of the year ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by daveisright on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31.

Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sjy on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31.

[Regardless of who is president] Confidence in democracy will continue dropping (as measured by FOA and Pew). ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Ragnarok_Reverted 28 days ago; known on 2020-12-31.

Bill Simmons: Sports gambling legal in the US by 2020 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2014-09-06; known on 2020-12-31.

US puts another human footprint on the moon ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-18; known on 2020-12-31.

Tesla has at least one truly autonomous (no human safety driver) taxi (where a member of the public chooses the destination and pays) on a regular street (where unrestricted human-driven cars are driven on the same street) by the end of 2020 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-12-31.

Steve Bannon one of 5 remaining candidates in republican primaries, 2020 ( 4% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2020-12-31.

Uber CEO to actually buy Half a Million Autonomous Electric Cars from Tesla By 2020 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31.

PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 82% confidence; 39 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31.

There will be a breach of a large cloud service provider that will compromise thousands of sensitive accounts within this decade. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by SRA311B on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-12-31.

Bill Gates won't develop an affordable water-less toilet for the third world by 2020 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2020-12-31.

By the end of 2020, the obesity rate among adults 20 years or older in the United States will drop from 34.9% in 2012 to 30%… +/- .9 percent. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Lissy on 2015-11-04; known on 2020-12-31.

Xi Jinping pledges to remove poverty in Zhongguo by 2020. 70.17 million people in the countryside live below the poverty line of 2,300 yuan (USD 376) in annual income at 2014. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2020-12-31.

Bharat's nuclear power will double to 10 000 MW by 2020.https://tinyurl.com/qds7raq ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2020-12-31.

Morocco withdraws from Western Sahara by 2020 ( 10% confidence )

Created by elephantower on 2016-07-12; known on 2020-12-31.

Donald Trump ends the NSA by executive order & creates a program to ensure secure communications for everyone in the world ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2020-12-31.

Artie Lange is dead before the end of the year ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )