Blue Origin's New Glenn to enter commercial service by the end of 2021. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-14; known on 2021-12-31.

1-5-10-15 income tax passes in the US ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-17; known on 2021-12-31.

0% corporate tax in US ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-17; known on 2021-12-31.

SPX reaches 4000 by the end of 2021 ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-10; known on 2021-12-31.

By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain. ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2018-12-01; known on 2021-12-31.

Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2011-09-12; known on 2022-01-01.

Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2019-08-12; known on 2022-01-01.

>1 million american refugees have entered canadian borders ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2022-01-01.

The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 38% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01.

North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19; known on 2022-01-01.

Israel and Egypt at war by 2022 ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-16; known on 2022-01-01.

New Glenn to launch by end of 2021. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-14; known on 2022-01-01.

I will remain below 67kg at end 2021. Follow on from prediction that I will be under 67kg by end February 2021. Currently 68.6kg. ( 65% confidence )

Created by waveman 11 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' —Steven Pinker ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-03; known on 2022-01-01.

OoTS: MitD is the Snarl. ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-06-30; known on 2022-01-01.

Kobe Bryant will own a professional sports team outside the US within the next 12 years (till 2024) ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2022-01-01.

'Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft' in 2021 ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01.

New Shepard to fly with people in 2021 ( 24% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ 15 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

CPUs switch from silicon to carbon nanotubes by 2022 ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01.

'Water crisis in southwest USA' in 2021 ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01.

>=10 IEDs used on US highways in 2021 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-01; known on 2022-01-01.

One of the cyberwarfare viruses (Stuxnet, Flame, ??) will spill out and hit civilian US computers in a widespread way before 2022. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-30; known on 2022-01-01.

ULA's Vulcan rocket to fly by end of 2021. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ 29 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

Jair Bolsonaro sofre impeachment antes do final de 2021 ( 45% confidence )

Created by rapinoinfeliz on 2020-07-22; known on 2022-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project's December 2016 grant to Impact Justice's Restorative Justice Project will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level (United States) by 2020-01-01 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2022-01-01.

There won't be a significant automobile virus sighting ( 13% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known on 2022-01-01.

I will complete studying “A first course in general relativity” in 2021. ( 70% confidence )

Created by waveman 11 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

Airplanes are becoming less safe in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's in the U.S. ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-07-06; known on 2022-01-01.

Microsoft buys Cloudflare ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-24; known on 2022-01-01.

MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-03; known on 2022-01-01.

Most of the gene sites accounting for the additive heritability of g (0.6) will be identified by 2021. — Steve Hsu ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Pablo Stafforini on 2012-10-13; known on 2022-01-01.

New Shepard to fly at least once in 2021. ( 93% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ 15 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

Between now and 2022, a religion, subsect, or religious movement will be founded and grow to over 10,000 followers that has explicit ties to Judaism/Christianity/Islam, but rejects the omnipotence of God. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2011-12-03; known on 2022-01-01.

Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021 ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-03; known on 2022-01-01.

Eric Weinstein said “I'm going to put out Geometric Unity in written form” (in 2021, new years resolution) here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRmbQP6ho4c&ab_channel=DrBrianKeating. I say it will not happen. ( 75% confidence )

Created by waveman 11 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

someone markets a robotic 'teddy fuxpin' terry ruxpin clone. ( 73% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-18; known on 2022-01-01.

Utah public lands lawsuit reaches US Supreme Court ( 50% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-04; known on 2022-01-01.

Congress will formally disestablish the reservations described in McGirt v. Oklahoma by the end of 2021 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Deepak on 2020-07-09; known on 2022-01-01.

By 1/1/2022 GE stock will be at $15 or more a share. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by bogusia_k on 2018-11-12; known on 2022-01-01.

Will Boston's snowfall in 2020-2021 be below average? ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-12-01; known on 2022-01-01.

I will meditate at least 180 hours total in 2021. ( 70% confidence )

Created by korakos on 2020-11-29; known on 2022-01-01.

A stronger stimulant than caffeine will be widely legally available in the UK by 2022, and be used and sold in a similar way ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Michael Stevens on 2012-04-06; known on 2022-01-01.

New Glenn to fly at least once in 2021 ( 18% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ 15 days ago; known on 2022-01-01.

Rupert Murdoch will still lead Fox News after his 90th birthday ( 49% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2022-01-01.

Google Plus will continue to be actively supported by Google through 2021, with growth in active users. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2022-01-01.

First SLS to fly by end of 2021. ( 34% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01.

New Glenn rocket to fly putting a payload into orbit by end of 2021. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01.

Will NYC's snowfall in 2020-2021 be below average? ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-12-01; known on 2022-01-01.

Nawa will publish data justifying their press release's claims of record-high battery energy density in 2021. ( 30% confidence )

Created by srconstantin on 2020-10-27; known on 2022-01-01.