By the end of 2024, I will spend a 60 day stretch without experiencing any allergy symptoms ( 20% confidence )

Created by panashe on 2023-01-18; known on 2024-12-31.

Tesla will achieve approved full self-driving in at least one state in the USA by the end of 2024 without geofencing. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01; known on 2024-12-31.

U.S. 10 year Treasury yield below 3.5% before 2025 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2024-12-31.

I will be married before 2025 (age ~35.5) ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-07-09; known on 2025-01-01.

Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.

Health – Before the end of 2024 at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory. ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-28; known on 2025-01-01.

Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025 ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-14; known on 2025-01-01.

The US dollar will still be the world's primary reserve currency in 2025 (The primary reserve currency being the currency held in greatest amounts by countries in their foreign reserves). ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by najdorf on 2013-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.

2025: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2025-01-01.

2025: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2025-01-01.

[Statistics, Culture] For the next calendar year, starting 2021 to 2022, there will be a statistically significant drop in the number of children named 'Corona' ( 55% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2020-04-24; known on 2025-01-01.

The composite American from 2014-2024 will be more supportive of abortion restrictions than the composite American from 2003-2013. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Omid on 2013-10-21; known on 2025-01-01.

Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 200m. ( 20% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known on 2025-01-01.

By 2025, the remains of several prehistoric human settlements will be discovered underwater by archaeologists. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using “3D printing” technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

By 2025, single-lens magnifying glasses that allow a person to view unicellular microorganisms will be available to consumers for less than US$100 (adjusted for inflation). ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

Solar Probe Plus flies into Sun's corona in 2024 ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2025-01-01.

The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. ( 30% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.

“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.” ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2025-01-01.

Elon Musk will have at least 12 children total (3+ more children) by 2025 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sungk2048 on 2022-07-08; known on 2025-01-01.

No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. ( 79% confidence; 13 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2025-01-01.

Jon Snow alive at beginning of The Winds of Winter ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Leo on 2013-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.

Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2025-01-01.

Ivermectin will be shown to be ineffective as a form of prophylaxis for COVID-19 before 2024. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-09-03; known on 2025-01-01.

The Long Range Strike Bomber will cost at least $846 million per plane (in FY2016 dollars). ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by quanticle on 2015-10-28; known on 2025-01-01.

Number of human truck drivers in the US to fall by 50% by 2024 EOY ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.

Usain Bolt sets a new PB in the 100m. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known on 2025-01-01.

Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 100m. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known on 2025-01-01.

'2024 Infrared signals are detected coming from the centre of the Galaxy, obviously the product of a technologically advanced civilisation. All attempts to decipher them fail.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2025-01-01.

The person who tried to interfere with Flynn's testimony was Derek Harvey ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-17; known on 2025-01-01.

Trump massive crackdown on comedians. Bill Maher imprisoned(for comedy show) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2025-01-01.

SLS to be cancelled outright or to launch at least once before 2025. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2025-01-01.

[2025 Price of a Crunchwrap Supreme ] <= $6.1 ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.

Trump will start a TV show before 2025. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2025-01-01.

Marijuana will be legal in Canada by 2025. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-09-01; known on 2025-01-01.

at least one of the two new roundabouts in regina are replaced by traffic lights/normal intersections ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-27; known on 2025-01-01.

By 2025, water vapor will be detected in the atmosphere of at least one free-floating “rogue planet”. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

By 2025, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2025-01-01.

The United States drug scheduling system will be dramatically revised by 2025. ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2025 ( 96% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2025-01-01.

Petabyte storage devices are available in 2024 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2025-01-01.

/r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by quanticle on 2019-05-18; known on 2025-01-01.

'African elephants are on the brink of extinction' in 2024 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2025-01-01.

“The concept of time as a linear dimension will be replaced by one of time as a polarity between content and context.” ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-01-01.

US to withdraw from Five Eyes, conditional on UK decision to incorporate Huawei technologies into their 5G telecom infrastructure ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-18; known on 2025-01-01.