Donald Trump runs as an Independent in the 2024 Presidential election ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-08-16.

The Amazon rainforest fire triggers an irreversible catastrophic ecological collapse ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2024-08-16.

Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today ( 45% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by jamesrom on 2020-08-22; known on 2024-08-22.

Ron DeSantis wins the 2024 Republican presidential primary ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-14; known on 2024-09-01.

Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 5 years. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2019-09-15; known on 2024-09-15.

[Onision (Gregory Daniel Jackson) (born November 11, 1985) gets] arrested within five (5) years ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-09-29; known on 2024-09-29.

[Onision (Gregory Daniel Jackson) (born November 11, 1985) gets] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2019-09-29; known on 2024-09-29.

Brazilian tax reform will pass Congress before our 2024 midterm election days. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-12-02; known on 2024-10-06.

Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2024-10-16.

Detection of axions widely accepted in physics publications. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2014-10-20; known on 2024-10-20.

Bharat will eliminate absolute poverty(WB:1.90 USD definition) by 2024 ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-02; known on 2024-11-03.

Trump reelected in 2024. ( 31% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by bsl5265 on 2021-11-08; known on 2024-11-05.

I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2024 US Presidential Election ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Dapple on 2017-01-05; known on 2024-11-08.

Donald Trump will be elected president in 2024. ( 34% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-27; known on 2024-11-09.

Joe Biden wins the 2024 presidential election ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known on 2024-11-16.

Depression rates be an average of 1.0% higher in each of the following age groups in 2022 (to adjust for any demographic shifts). We should have access to this data in late 2014 (ie 10 years from now). According to the NIMH's interpretation of the NSD ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2014-11-30; known on 2024-11-30.

Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 3.34% GDP growth rate for Brasil in 2015- 2024. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-16.

Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 4.28% GDP growth rate for Zhongguo for 2015- 2024. ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-16.

Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 6.98% GDP growth rate for Bharat for 2015- 2024. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-25.

Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 3.7% GDP growth rate for South Africa in 2015- 2024. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-25.

Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 4.75% GDP growth rate for Việt Nam in 2015- 2024. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-25.

Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 4.82% GDP growth rate for Indonesia in 2015- 2024. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-25.

Center for International Development at Harvard University predicts 1.96% GDP growth rate for Rossiya(Росси́я) in 2015- 2024. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-04; known on 2024-12-25.

The Yemen civil war will be won by the Revolutionary Committee, and the Saudi-led Coalition(US,UK) will be defeated. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-26; known on 2024-12-25.

Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft ( 7% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-27; known on 2024-12-31.

“By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP.” ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2024-12-31.

There'll be an official e-cash system (in competition with bitcoins or whatever the surviving coin system is) by end of 2024. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-25; known on 2024-12-31.

'President Mike Pence' ( 14% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known on 2024-12-31.

Milo Yiannopoulos becomes a woman( post-op ) ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-16; known on 2024-12-31.

“US accounting and banking regulations will not require that loan portfolios held in the “banking book” be marked to market before 2024.” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2024-12-31.

More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. ( 21% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2024-12-31.

By the end of 2024, I will spend a 60 day stretch without experiencing any allergy symptoms ( 20% confidence )

Created by panashe on 2023-01-18; known on 2024-12-31.

Tesla will achieve approved full self-driving in at least one state in the USA by the end of 2024 without geofencing. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01; known on 2024-12-31.

U.S. 10 year Treasury yield below 3.5% before 2025 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2024-12-31.

I will be married before 2025 (age ~35.5) ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-07-09; known on 2025-01-01.

Health – Before the end of 2024 at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory. ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-28; known on 2025-01-01.

Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025 ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-14; known on 2025-01-01.

Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.

The US dollar will still be the world's primary reserve currency in 2025 (The primary reserve currency being the currency held in greatest amounts by countries in their foreign reserves). ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by najdorf on 2013-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.

2025: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2025-01-01.

2025: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2025-01-01.

[Statistics, Culture] For the next calendar year, starting 2021 to 2022, there will be a statistically significant drop in the number of children named 'Corona' ( 55% confidence; 6 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2020-04-24; known on 2025-01-01.

The composite American from 2014-2024 will be more supportive of abortion restrictions than the composite American from 2003-2013. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Omid on 2013-10-21; known on 2025-01-01.

Trump massive crackdown on comedians. Bill Maher imprisoned(for comedy show) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2025-01-01.

By 2025, the remains of several prehistoric human settlements will be discovered underwater by archaeologists. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

'African elephants are on the brink of extinction' in 2024 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2025-01-01.

A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.

By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using “3D printing” technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.

Number of human truck drivers in the US to fall by 50% by 2024 EOY ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.

Petabyte storage devices are available in 2024 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2025-01-01.