The Guardian newspaper's obsession with sex robots will continue for the next two years at least. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2019-10-03.

(Rick&Morty): Orgu vf gur pybar ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-10-04; known on 2019-10-04.

It will be necessary for EU citizens (not previously resident in the UK) to apply for a visa to enter the UK (for both travel and to work) within 3 years. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by penten on 2016-10-10; known on 2019-10-10.

Still at my current employer a year from now. ( 70% confidence )

Created by notsonewuser on 2018-10-10; known on 2019-10-10.

Hierophant will be unable to perform a task he wishes to perform within the next 4 years due to akrasia. ( 20% confidence )

Created by Hierophant on 2015-10-14; known on 2019-10-14.

Iran's current regime will be collapse within the next ten years. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by kess3r on 2009-10-15; known on 2019-10-15.

EA Grants makes the majority of their grant decisions and amounts publicly accessible by October 19, 2019 (UTC) ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-10-19.

EA Grants makes the majority of their applications public knowledge by the end of October 19, 2019 (UTC). ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-10-19.

[Baseball] The New York Mets will make it to The World Series in 2019 ( 10% confidence )

Created by RedScharlach 3 days ago; known on 2019-10-22.

[Baseball] The New York Mets will win the World Series in 2019 ( 5% confidence )

Created by RedScharlach 3 days ago; known on 2019-10-30.

Within three years, Open Phil makes a grant to an animal advocacy org to support consumer-side intervention(s). ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-31; known on 2019-10-31.

Gmail will still exist in five years, in contrast to Mike Elgan's prediction. http://www.computerworld.com/article/2838775/why-google-wants-to-replace-gmail.html ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2014-10-31; known on 2019-10-31.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in October for which data are published ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-11-01.

James Cameron is accused of sexual harassment/assault by at least one woman. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-01; known on 2019-11-01.

Michael Bay is accused of sexual harassment/assault by at least one woman ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-06; known on 2019-11-06.

Antonio Costa's government won't survive its entire term ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by JoaoEira on 2015-12-19; known on 2019-11-16.

By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that the Doing Good Better book giveaway results on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.

By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that EAGx events result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in November for which data are published ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato 16 days ago; known on 2019-12-01.

By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that standard marketing and outreach (e.g. online ads) result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.

The NDA will win the India's 2019 General Elections ( 86% confidence )

Created by Nve on 2018-02-13; known on 2019-12-01.

I won't work somewhere where I have to wear something more fancy than jeans in the next 5 years. (Jason said he thinks I will) ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-03; known on 2019-12-03.

Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. ( 10% confidence; 17 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-12-08; known on 2019-12-08.

Mauricio Macri is re-elected President of Argentina ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-12-10.

Charity Science: Health becomes (or creates) a GiveWell top charity by giving season 2019 ( 35% confidence )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-12-25.

001-A(山东/Shandong) aircraft carrier was predicted by National Interest to take 9 years. It will take 4.5 -5 years. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2019-12-25.

The BRICS share will pass the combined US + EU in percentage of world GDP in 2019. ( 86% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-11; known on 2019-12-25.

By 2019, for the first time in history, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) will not account for a majority of worldwide defence expenditure. It accounted for almost two-thirds of global spending as recently as 2010,” said IHS. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2019-12-25.

Rey is Luke's daughter. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-12-29; known on 2019-12-29.

1k PPI VR display of at least 3.5"/eye size will be in a consumer VR headset in 2019 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by icrbow on 2017-08-03; known on 2019-12-30.

'I expect to see an impressive proto-AGI within the next 8 years' —Shane Legg ( 22% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2019-12-31.

A single Block 5 Falcon 9 booster will launch 10 times during 2019. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-18; known on 2019-12-31.

A single Falcon 9 Block 5 core will launch twice within 24 hours during 2019. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-15; known on 2019-12-31.

ARCA Space will cancel development of its Haas 2C vehicle before the end of 2019. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-02; known on 2019-12-31.

Trudeau's new Canadian copyright act removes ability to transfer copyright ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2019-12-31.

Children, on average, learn to be systematic before they learn to be quantitative ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2019-12-31.

Top 10 by market cap coins on CMC will have more than one stable coin ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Nve on 2018-12-29; known on 2019-12-31.

Solaren delivers 200MW to california grid at any point from Space Based Solar ( 37% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19; known on 2019-12-31.

Senator Elizabeth Warren will enter the Democratic Primary for President in the 2020 election. ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Faceh on 2016-11-27; known on 2019-12-31.

Zhongguo(中国) will be world's largest economy in nominal(USD, current prices) terms by 2020. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-02; known on 2019-12-31.

Energy efficiency: T&D losses from the 22 % in 2015 to 15% by 2019 — Power Ministry Bharat ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2019-12-31.

There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving one billion personal records before 2019. ( 38% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-12-31.

In 2019, I’ll be able to get a pizza delivered to my house by a robot. ( 42% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2019-12-31.

$AMZN 2019 end of year price >= $2100 ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by objclone on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-12-31.

Pirate Bay will still exist in its name by 2020 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2019-12-31.

China will increase their cap on solar production in 2019 to at least 20 GW before the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf 23 days ago; known on 2019-12-31.

Satoshi Nakamoto will have at one point been the world's richest person by 11:59 pm, December 31st, 2019. ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by dchristie on 2018-01-12; known on 2019-12-31.

A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 79% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01.