I will never have kids ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mishell103 on 2015-04-25; known on 2025-04-25.

gwern branwen will change his personal pronouns from he/him to they/them. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-27; known on 2025-04-28.

E. Yudkowsky will coauthor a book with gwern. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.

Gwern is Jim Babcock. ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.

The identity of gwern branwen will be revealed to the public by 2025. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-27; known on 2025-04-29.

Gwern is still living with his relatives. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-28; known on 2025-04-29.

I will reach 200,000 lifetime book sales by May 2025 (currently 104k) ( 50% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2023-04-26; known on 2025-05-01.

Sam will complete his PhD. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2025-05-04.

lawsuits aimed at bankrupting LGBT organizations. this is currently happening in the UK, and i anticipate it will be exported to the US as a strategy, in the next 3 years. ( 78% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2025-05-08.

262c5d5c74f33d44712251134f833ccad5ebaa9327aa759951fd3073063ab5d4 - ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-21; known on 2025-05-08.

e5457decad6d1248430258b145bd1418cf6229b9e545e0282ab9a192d3b5491e - ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-21; known on 2025-05-08.

>= 10% of California IT workers unionized by 2025 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by entropy on 2015-05-10; known on 2025-05-10.

[ Law Enforcement, Celebrity, Musician ] Tekashi69 (AKA Tekashi 6ix9ine) (Daniel Hernandez) (born May 8, 1996) to have an act of murder or attempted murder committed against him ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2020-05-10; known on 2025-05-11.

Bharat will grow 10% in real GDP terms year on year from 2015-25. That will take Bharat from a 2.3 trillion USD nominal economy to 10.3 trillion dollar economy in 10 years, where Zhonghua is currently.In PPP terms Bharat will be the 2nd biggest economy. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-11; known on 2025-05-12.

Within 8 months of serial research, a competent team can find a “secret spilling” steering vector which gets a smart model to give up in-context secrets across a variety of situations. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by TurnTrout on 2023-05-13; known on 2025-05-13.

Software engineer salaries in the United States are going to plummet to the average of the global work force within the next 24 months ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-23; known on 2025-05-15.

SLS to be launched at least once or to be canceled outright by May 15, 2025 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-07-05; known on 2025-05-16.

I in 2 years ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-07-01; known on 2025-05-22.

Hackerone will paid out $1 billion on the 23th of May, 2025 ( 80% confidence )

Created by smodnix on 2020-05-28; known on 2025-05-23.

2025 there will be about 2.7 billion with excess weight, up from 2 billion in 2010. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-10; known on 2025-05-28.

RuPay (रूपे) and China UnionPay (中国银联) will surpass Visa and Mastercard as a payment network. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2025-05-28.

Extreme poverty(WB definition 1.90 per day) to be eliminated by 2025. Poverty declined from 36 % in 1990 to 15 per cent in 2011. Projections indicate that the global extreme poverty rate has fallen further, to 9.6%, as of 2015. ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2025-05-28.

Biden wins the 2024 US presidential election, according to the New York Times ( 70% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-09-05; known on 2025-06-01.

Either the average cost of a public university education in America will double, the median income of a 4-year-degree holder will fall to 125% of a high school diploma holder, or the expected value of a public university education will turn negative. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JohnWittle on 2016-02-17; known on 2025-06-01.

Subwoolfer is Ylvis ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Deepak on 2022-06-12; known on 2025-06-12.

I will get compensation >= $3k within next 8 years because of my arrest at the protest #no_research ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-06-18; known on 2025-06-13.

A nationwide effort to legalize polygamy ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by elmerfudd1 on 2013-03-26; known on 2025-06-20.

First physical sample returned from a Near Earth Asteroid. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2025-06-22.

1 year continuous human habitation of the moon ( 17% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-18; known on 2025-06-22.

The collective Internet (CI) will be available on a chip by 2025. ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-06-30.

Quantum computing will be accessible to the world's public, for sale or rent, by mid-2025. ( 44% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by luxpir on 2015-09-29; known on 2025-07-01.

There will NOT be a “World War III” within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's “allies” and NATO and/or western europe) ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Snorkelfarsan on 2015-07-31; known on 2025-07-01.

arXiv will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 86% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.

The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 76% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.

The Stack Exchange Network will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by btrettel on 2015-07-10; known on 2025-07-01.

figshare will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 60% confidence )

Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.

GitHub will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.

Google Scholar will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by btrettel on 2015-06-15; known on 2025-07-01.

Nous continuons la traditions des week-end en ville ( 90% confidence )

Created by Medea on 2020-07-09; known on 2025-07-09.

facebook block capability will digitally alter pictures to erase evidence that the person who's blocking you was ever present ( 53% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-22; known on 2025-07-22.

Joe Biden will die within five years. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-25; known on 2025-07-25.

Donald Trump will die within five years. ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-25; known on 2025-07-25.

Inflation adjusted GDP in California will be statistically significantly less than the rest of the U.S. over the next 10 years. Paired ANOVA, p < 0.05, based on the same source that led to this data or equivalent http://www.lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/D ( 5% confidence )

Created by Porejide on 2015-07-25; known on 2025-07-25.

a new world record in the men's 5000 meters will be set between now and 2025-08-01: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/5000_metres_world_record_progression ( 33% confidence )

Created by finback on 2020-08-20; known on 2025-08-01.

Universal basic income will be adopted in at least 50% of the G20 countries within 10 years ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by sflicht on 2015-08-07; known on 2025-08-08.

Russia to invade Israel by August 10th 2025 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-07; known on 2025-08-10.

I will not be married within the next 5 years ( 80% confidence )

Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2025-08-12.

Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. ( 14% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by quanticle on 2015-08-14; known on 2025-08-15.

Polar Bears will go extinct in the wild before 2025 ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2025-08-16.

Right-leaning political parties, relative to the political parties currently in power, will control a greater number of majority positions of executive or (all) legislative branches of EU-member countries than at present. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Afforess on 2015-09-01; known on 2025-09-01.