SpaceX will fly a mission with crew around the moon by end of 2018. ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by trishume on 2017-02-28; known in 15 days.

Food shortages (eg grocery/food stores with empty shelves) reported at some point before 2019 in South Africa ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12; known in 15 days.

Rian Johnson’s new Star Wars trilogy takes place before the Prequel Trilogy. ( 65% confidence )

Created by gallerdude on 2017-12-26; known in 15 days.

gene swap does happen at HOPE 12 ( 69% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-03; known in 15 days.

For at least one full hour in 2018, Ethereum will have a total market capitalization of $250B or more, as judged by coinmarketcap.com (or a commonly accepted alternative if coinmarketcap.com no longer exists) ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-17; known in 15 days.

EA – Evidence Action's No Lean Season remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known in 15 days.

Canada's Federal NDP will adopt the LEAP manifesto as official party policy ( 58% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known in 15 days.

A democrat will win the SF mayoral special election. ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Ardenlk on 2017-12-30; known in 15 days.

AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2019 ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known in 15 days.

SaskTel privatized ( 21% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known in 15 days.

EA – GiveWell publishes at least two reports on interventions to influence policy by end of 2018 ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known in 15 days.

EA – GiveWell's end of year donation recommendations for 2018 once again recommend a majority of direct donations go to Against Malaria Foundation ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known in 15 days.

Politics, Middle East – There is a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States before 1 January 2019 ( 8% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-11; known in 15 days.

I will still be below 68kg at the end of 2018 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known in 15 days.

SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2019. ( 36% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known in 15 days.

PP will defeat Hbox in 2018. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by fairfax on 2018-03-15; known in 15 days.

I am still at SFDC in 3 years ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known in 15 days.

ASOIAF : Wbua Fabj unf Gnetnelra oybbq naq qbrf abg ohea sebz qentbaf ( 42% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known in 15 days.

“Polygamy is granted legal status in the US.” ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known in 15 days.

Amazon will choose either Miami or Boston as their HQ2 (me) ( 50% confidence )

Created by workbean on 2018-01-31; known in 15 days.

Politics, Middle East – Iran withdraws from the deal limiting its nuclear program before the end of 2018. ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known in 15 days.

The US Republican Party ends the legislative filibuster in the Senate by the end of 2018 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known in 15 days.

Politics, China – There is a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country before 1 January 2019 ( 8% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-11; known in 15 days.

Theranos will get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood-tests by 2019 ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by ChristianKl on 2015-12-16; known in 15 days.

Rationalist Community – LessWrong.com has at least 20 front page posts approved during December 2018 ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known in 15 days.

Brent crude will reach $100 in 2018. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known in 15 days.

Maduro shot within 30 days of Óscar Pérez publicly posting bitcoin address ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-15; known in 15 days.

“The fertility rate in China drops below the replacement level, and nothing the government can do can get Chinese couples to have more than 1.5 kids each.” ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known in 15 days.

Trump to end 2018 with ≥40% approval rating as aggregated by 538. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known in 15 days.

Politics, Middle East – Fatah and Hamas do not meaningfully reconcile in 2018 (e.g. Fatah still doesn't control Gaza by January 1, 2019) ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known in 15 days.

President Trump will be impeached by 12/31/18 ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known in 15 days.

U.S will experience a recession before 2019 according to FRED data ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-12-01; known in 15 days.

USS Gerald R. Ford CVN 78 will spend fewer than 30 days on deployment in 2018 ( 85% confidence )

Created by Dapple on 2017-07-24; known in 15 days.

Tillerson will be SoS on 12/31/18 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-30; known in 15 days.

EA – Schistosomiasis Control Initiative remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018 ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known in 15 days.

Bashar al-Assad ceases to be president of Syria before 1 January 2019 ( 13% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-11; known in 15 days.

Brazil's GDP will be above its 2014 level in 2018. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known in 15 days.

I will have a major haircut in 2018 ( 10% confidence )

Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known in 15 days.

Cocoa will reach $3000/ton in 2018. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known in 15 days.

Quora to make an independent IPO by 2018 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known in 15 days.

news.ycombinator.com will shut down or be offline >= 1 week before 2019 ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by bobpage on 2017-09-19; known in 15 days.

There will be a driverless car available for purchase for less than $100,000 (inflation adjusted to Jan 1, 2012) in the US in 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known in 15 days.

The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known in 15 days.

'Cheques are phased out in the UK' by 2019 ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-27; known in 15 days.

Stephen Paddock was a jihadi, or affiliated with ISIS, or carried out the Las Vegas attack on behalf of ISIS ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by bobpage on 2017-10-08; known in 15 days.

By January 1, 2019 War between North Korea and at least one of the US, Britain, China, Japan, South Korea, or the collapse of the North Korean government. ( 25% confidence; 15 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known in 15 days.

Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2019 ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known in 15 days.

Technology – Ethereum market cap is below Bitcoin market cap at end of 2018 ( 85% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known in 15 days.

Saudi Aramco will have an IPO at a non-Saudi bourse in 2018. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known in 15 days.