PredictionBook: Upcoming Predictions

[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07.

It will be necessary for EU citizens (not previously resident in the UK) to apply for a visa to enter the UK (for both travel and to work) within 3 years. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by penten on 2016-10-10; known on 2019-10-10.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of October 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] September 2019 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-10-10.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of October 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] October 2018 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-10-10.

Still at my current employer a year from now. ( 70% confidence )

Created by notsonewuser on 2018-10-10; known on 2019-10-10.

Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. ( 84% confidence; 15 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-10-14; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-10-17.

Hbox will win Pound, Smash N' Splash, Shine and The Big House in 2019 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by wheat on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-10-14.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-10-14.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-10-14.

[Commodities] As of October 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of September 2019 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-10-14.

Hierophant will be unable to perform a task he wishes to perform within the next 4 years due to akrasia. ( 20% confidence )

Created by Hierophant on 2015-10-14; known on 2019-10-14.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-10-14.

Libyan crude oil production to average above 1 MMbpd for 2019 Q3 ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-12; known on 2019-10-15.

Iran's current regime will be collapse within the next ten years. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by kess3r on 2009-10-15; known on 2019-10-15.

[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for September 2019 to exceed 110 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato 19 days ago; known on 2019-10-18.

EA Grants makes the majority of their grant decisions and amounts publicly accessible by October 19, 2019 (UTC) ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-10-19.

EA Grants makes the majority of their applications public knowledge by the end of October 19, 2019 (UTC). ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-10-19.

[Politics] Conservatives to win more seats than Liberals in Canada's federal election ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-22.

[Baseball] The New York Mets will make it to The World Series in 2019 ( 10% confidence )

Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2019-10-22.

[Politics] Canadian federal election to be held as scheduled on October 21, 2019 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-22.

[REDACTED INDIVIDUAL CODE A] is no longer working at [REDACTED ORG CODE A] in six months ( 70% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2019-04-25; known on 2019-10-25.

[Macri to be re-elected president of Argentina, given USDARS] between 35 and 40 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-28.

[Macri to be re-elected president of Argentina, given USDARS] > 40 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-28.

[Macri to be re-elected president of Argentina, given USDARS] < 35 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-28.

[Politics] Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to officially run for president of Argentina in 2019 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-28.

[Baseball] The New York Mets will win the World Series in 2019 ( 5% confidence )

Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2019-10-30.

Within three years, Open Phil makes a grant to an animal advocacy org to support consumer-side intervention(s). ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-31; known on 2019-10-31.

[US FOMC October rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-10-31.

[US FOMC October rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-10-31.

[US FOMC October rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-10-31.

Gmail will still exist in five years, in contrast to Mike Elgan's prediction. http://www.computerworld.com/article/2838775/why-google-wants-to-replace-gmail.html ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2014-10-31; known on 2019-10-31.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in October for which data are published ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-11-01.

The UK to leave the EU without a deal on, or by, 31 October ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-05-16; known on 2019-11-01.

There will be a new iPhone in 2019 that uses a USB-C connector instead of Lightning ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jamesrom 7 days ago; known on 2019-11-01.

James Cameron is accused of sexual harassment/assault by at least one woman. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-01; known on 2019-11-01.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for September 2019 to exceed 50% ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-11-05.

Michael Bay is accused of sexual harassment/assault by at least one woman ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-06; known on 2019-11-06.

[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers )