During the election of 2024 for President, both Independents and Republicans (the Republicans had been in decline) will put up vigorous campaigns against the Democrat. ( 85% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Turtleread on 2012-11-05; known on 2023-04-21.

mccabe will go to jail or be found dead ( 80% confidence )

Created by DanMotorcycleGuy on 2018-04-24; known on 2023-04-24.

Over the next five years, the Boston Celtics will win more regular season games than the Philadelphia 76ers. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by davatk on 2018-05-06; known on 2023-05-01.

The “EM drive” within 8 years not drive anything nor will it provide any meaningful peer-reviewed contribution to modern physics beyond “still another insight in how not to fuck up an experimental setup and misinterpret data” ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2023-05-02.

From 2 May 2019, Apple Inc. (Share price 2 May: $209.15) will yield more than Tesla share price (Share price 2 May: $244.10) in 4 years on a percentage basis. ( 0% confidence )

Created by separo on 2019-05-19; known on 2023-05-02.

I will receive an economics PhD within the next 10 years ( 20% confidence )

Created by Isaac on 2013-05-09; known on 2023-05-09.

“Of course in 5 years this [Google Assistant] thing is retired without much fanfare because Google doesn’t know how to create products” – BB ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Neznans on 2018-05-16; known on 2023-05-16.

bankendominoes starts again in the US OR massive bail-in in US occurs ( 57% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-07; known on 2023-05-22.

Browsers will replace Javascript with a VM as an standard way to run code. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by wslh on 2013-05-28; known on 2023-05-28.

PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 28 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known on 2023-05-31.

Glucose-powered electronics will go for FDA approval in 2023 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by icrbow on 2017-08-03; known on 2023-06-01.

By June 1, Donetsk and Lughansk under complete Russian control, and Ukraine to have officially dropped any plans of joining NATO or EU, and all sanctions on Russia lifted. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-01; known on 2023-06-01.

Trudeau government implements a new NEP without being substantially different from the old one(ie doesn't subsidize alberta for loss) ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-24; known on 2023-06-01.

[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 44.000 dkk ( 50% confidence )

Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01.

[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 48.000 dkk ( 80% confidence )

Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01.

[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 46.000 dkk ( 70% confidence )

Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01.

I will meet Miss Propaganda in person again. ( 5% confidence )

Created by niplav 4 days ago; known on 2023-06-01.

I will meet Miss Checkers in person again. ( 35% confidence )

Created by niplav 4 days ago; known on 2023-06-01.

[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 50.000 dkk ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by oakbound on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01.

I will meet Miss Pink Panther in person again. ( 40% confidence )

Created by niplav 4 days ago; known on 2023-06-01.

I will meet Miss Piano in person again. ( 30% confidence )

Created by niplav 4 days ago; known on 2023-06-01.

Before 2023, Charlie Stross will write and publish a novel that features a Roko's Basilisk-like plot device ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by halfwit on 2013-06-14; known on 2023-06-14.

At least one of upcoming November, December, January, February, March, April or May to have at least 30,000 covid deaths in the US, or at least one pair of consecutive months with at least 50,000 covid deaths. ( 54% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-10-23; known on 2023-06-15.

Bitcoin will have increased in value relative to the British pound by this time next year. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-18; known on 2023-06-18.

80000 Key ideas translated and published online in Russian by ( 60% confidence )

Created by Mckiev on 2022-06-24; known on 2023-06-24.

World population passes 8 billion mark by mid 2023. (UN estimate). ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ekr on 2017-11-22; known on 2023-06-30.

The federal reserve will continue raising interest rates through June 2023. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ebloch 17 days ago; known on 2023-07-01.

Case-Shiller National (CSUSHPINSA) will not increase above 303.757 until 30-yr fixed (MORTGAGE30US) is below 6.5% for the prior month, through June 2023. ( 70% confidence )

Created by jacobgreenleaf 29 days ago; known on 2023-07-01.

Adept AI's demo is way better than it can actually do (https://twitter.com/AdeptAILabs/status/1590396065072951296) ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by cmessinger 16 days ago; known on 2023-07-02.

I will continue to think that AI alignment (including governance, multiagent, field building etc) is the most important thing for me to work on July 27th 2023. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by peterbarnett on 2022-07-28; known on 2023-07-27.

With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ( 8% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2023-07-29.

Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2023-08-16.

S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National (CSUSHPINSA) for June 2023 is less than 313.4. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-06-08; known on 2023-09-01.

In mid-2023, Brazil will have had mild GDP growth, but Bolsonarist bubbles will claim that these results are fake and Brazil is in a recession ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by DanCoimbra 5 days ago; known on 2023-09-01.

Amazon superará a Cencosud en Sudamérica dentro de 5 años. ( 90% confidence )

Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-03; known on 2023-09-03.

“I make the falsifiable prediction that during Pope Francis's tenure the Catholic Church will shrink, its proportional membership will diminish and its contributions per member will drop.” — EY (on Facebook) ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-09-20; known on 2023-09-20.

I will be in a romantic relationship with a woman whom I love and who loves me at some point between now and my 30th birthday. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by John Smith on 2018-04-10; known on 2023-10-10.

Still no first kiss before my 30th birthday. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by John Smith on 2018-04-10; known on 2023-10-10.

Knowledge organisation (as an extension/generalisation of services such as FullContact, Evernote) will become an important service in the next 5 years ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by raehik on 2018-10-13; known on 2023-10-13.

I will still think in early November 2023 that my moderate anxious personality is strongly related to my lifelong sort-of-“constant” internet usage, and in a causal way (internet → anxiety) which reflects my teenage years (10+) ( 90% confidence )

Created by DanCoimbra 18 days ago; known on 2023-11-08.

Republicans will take both houses of Congress in 2022. Without federal legislation protecting voting rights. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-25; known on 2023-11-16.

Oculus will not realese a headset more expensive than 500$ in the next 5 years. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-01; known on 2023-12-01.

I will not go to the 20 Books to 50k conference in Vegas again in 2023 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kadavy on 2022-10-21; known on 2023-12-01.

Javier Milei will win the 2023 presidential elections in Argentina. ( 60% confidence )

Created by joaquin on 2022-06-08; known on 2023-12-01.

I will post a tweet between Dec 1 2023 and Dec 7 2023 (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by danielfilan 14 days ago; known on 2023-12-07.

Freeman Dyson will become a centenarian ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2023-12-16.

No US city with a population of over a million people will require covid vaccines for indoor dining on December 22, 2023. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-22; known on 2023-12-23.

USA will default on its debt. ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2023-12-25.

Resolute gets treble damages against Greenpeace thanks to RICO (from 2017 case) ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-08; known on 2023-12-31.

At least one Trump National Security Lottery is put on by the US federal government ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-25; known on 2023-12-31.