Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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ACE will announce MFA as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by marianne on 2018-10-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by marianne on 2018-11-26.
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ronit and somni will coordinate next week ( 25% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2018-11-17; known on 2018-11-24; judged wrong by Somni on 2018-11-24.
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Any of Eva Ask/Jyrki Katainen/François Hollande/Barack Obama/Ben Bernanke/Keith Alexander/James Clapper killed within 5 years. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known on 2018-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-11-24.
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Zerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 5 years ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2018-11-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-11-23.
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Novak Djokovic will finish year-end ATP number 1 in 2018 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gurgus on 2017-11-22; known on 2018-11-20; judged right by gurgus on 2018-11-20.
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Either Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal will finish ATP year-end number 1 in 2018 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gurgus on 2017-11-22; known on 2018-11-20; judged right by gurgus on 2018-11-20.
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US will have universal health care system by 2022 ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by amadeu on 2018-11-12; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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Politics, US – Brian Kemp is elected governor of Georgia in the 2018 election, ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-18.
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I have exercised 250 days this year. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-05-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-17.
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Zach and Katie's relationship ends within four years. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-05-18; known on 2018-05-18; judged right by aarongertler on 2018-11-17.
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Jets will win the super bowl ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by rimbalzanoo on 2018-11-08; known on 2019-02-14; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-08.
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[For HQ2, Amazon will choose] Denver/Boulder. ( 10% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2018-08-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-15.
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[For HQ2, Amazon will choose] Boston. ( 25% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2018-08-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-15.
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[For HQ2, Amazon will choose] the DC area. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2018-08-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-15.
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Politics, US – Martha McSally is elected senator for Arizona in the November 2018 election. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-05; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-15.
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Я завершу первой главу ВКР до 1 ноября ( 70% confidence )
Created by Stommelen on 2018-09-27; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by Stommelen on 2018-11-12.
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Jets will win the super bowl ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by rimbalzanoo on 2018-11-08; known on 2019-02-14; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-08.
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Jets will win the super bowl ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by rimbalzanoo on 2018-11-08; known on 2019-02-14; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-08.
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I will successfully make it through “No Nut November” without masturbating. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-11-01; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-11-11.
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Nationwide school voucher system instigated, >70% of public schools effectively privatized, by US midterms. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Martin Shkreli convicted of a US crime before 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Democrats obtain a majority in the house ( 70% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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“Turkey will join the European Union and become a model for a Democratic Islamic State and lead the way for advancing relations between the Islamic world and “Western World”” ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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US Election 2018: Number of Democrats in House of Representatives win < 95 seats ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-19; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Joe Manchin will win his 2018 Senate race in West Virginia. ( 73% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Republicans will win the house in 2018. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2018-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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The Democrats will take control of at least one Congressional house in the midterms. ( 70% confidence )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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The US Democratic Party wins a majority in the US Senate after the 2018 Midterm elections ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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The US Democratic Party wins a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2018 Midterm elections ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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The “3 Cal” proposal to create three different California states gets a majority of votes in the 2018 election ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-06-17; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 election. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dipitashick on 2017-05-28; known on 2018-11-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Democrats gain control of the Senate in the 2018 election. ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by dipitashick on 2017-05-28; known on 2018-11-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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In both the 2016 and 2018 US elections, neither party will get a filibuster proof majority. ( 71% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2018-11-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Republicans will maintain control of the House of Representatives in 2018 elections ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-11-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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[The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will have Gretchen Whitmer as the Democratic nominee ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-11-18; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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[The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will have Bill Schuette as the Republican nominee ( 93% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-11-18; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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[The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will be won by a Republican ( 48% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-11-18; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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[The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will be won by a Democrat ( 52% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-11-18; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Kid Rock will not run for Senate in Michigan in 2018 ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-11-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Politics, Korea – Before 1 January 2019, South Korean President Moon Jae-in visits Pyongyang. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Lewis Hamilton will become 2018 Formula 1 World Champion ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Stommelen on 2018-09-27; known on 2018-11-25; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Politics, US – Texas Will not elect a Democratic senator in 2018 ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-09-23; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Larry Sharpe will win >10% of the vote in the upcoming NY gubernatorial election. ( 33% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Larry Sharpe will win the NY gubernatorial election. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Andrew Cuomo will win the NY gubernatorial election. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-11-10; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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I have exercised 260 days this year. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-05-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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I have exercised 200 days this year. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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The House Will Have A Democratic Majority after the 2018 election. ( 69% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by Shuffledrive on 2017-05-20; known on 2018-11-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
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Voters Not Politicians anti-gerrymandering MI constitutional amendment will be approved via ballot initiative on election day 2018 ( 37% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
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The Republicans will have 55 or more seats in the senate following the 2018 election. ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by iCrown on 2017-07-18; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.