Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Debbie Stabenow to win MI Senate seat in 2018 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
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Democrat to win MI-11 in 2018 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-29; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
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Politics, US – California Proposition 12 in the November 2018 election passes. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-20; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-11-08.
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Democrats will narrowly take back the house in 2018. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by SeriousPod on 2018-11-07.
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23 or more US senators will be women by the end of January 2019 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-30; known on 2019-01-31; judged right by lukefreeman on 2019-01-31.
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23 or more US senators will be women by the end of January 2019 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-30; known on 2019-01-31; judged right by lukefreeman on 2019-01-31.
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Politics, US – Texas Will not elect a Democratic senator in 2018 ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-09-23; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Democrats will not take the senate in 2018 ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by lukefreeman on 2018-11-07.
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Democrats to gain control of US Senate in 2018 elections ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2018-11-07.
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Republicans retain majorities in both the House and Senate after the 2018 mid terms ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2018-03-21; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2018-11-07.
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IE (not Edge) market share between 15-30% ( 70% confidence )
Created by rk on 2018-11-06; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by rk on 2018-11-06.
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Tech – Simon Segars (CEO of ARM) announces that they will not be attending the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh before 2018-10-28. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-20; known on 2018-10-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-11-05.
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Politics, Turkey – Turkish government announces it has found at least part of the body of Jamal Khashoggi before the end of 2018-10-28 local time. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-20; known on 2018-10-29; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-11-05.
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The Ebb sleep product will be available to easily buy within the next 6 months. ( 40% confidence )
Created by dnti808 on 2018-05-03; known on 2018-11-03; judged wrong by dnti808 on 2018-11-03.
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US, Sports – A team from the American League wins the 2018 World Series. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known on 2018-11-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-02.
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English Wikipedia will have greater than or equal to 6,000,000 articles by the end date of this prediction ( 22% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2018-11-01.
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LeVeon Bell won't be traded ( 75% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-30; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-31.
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[Brazil's next president will be] Bolsonaro ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lucasmafaldo on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-11-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-28.
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[ Brazil's next president will be] Bolsonaro or someone who espouses his law and order/anti-establishment platform ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-10-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-28.
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[ Brazil's next president will be] A permanent political class shill (Alckmin, Marina Silva, Ciro Gomes, Alvaro Dias, Joao Doria, other crooks) ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-10-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-28.
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Bolsonaro to be elected president of Brazil ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2018-07-16; known on 2018-10-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-28.
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The cubs will not win the 2018 world series ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by mattdraghi on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-11-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-28.
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Total marketcap of all cryptocurrencies on coinmarketcap(or it's successor) dips below 14B$ USD for longer than a day ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-26; known on 2018-09-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-26.
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Nevada will pass no further gun control laws as a result of the October shooting. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-10-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-26.
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The Philippines still dealing with dawla al islamyya ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2018-10-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-26.
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Technology – New iPhone model released with lowest option priced over $800 in the US before the end of 2018 ( 68% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-27.
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Trump approval rating below 38% (according to 538 all-polls) ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2018-10-22.
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US, Politics – The “Fahrenheit 11/9” movie ranks 2nd in its first week in theaters on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known on 2019-09-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Politics, US – In National Institute of Family and Life Advocates v. Becerra, will the Supreme Court rule that any state-licensed healthcare providers were improperly denied an injunction over California's Reproductive FACT Act? ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Politics, US – In Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky, will the Supreme Court rule that the state's ban on political apparel at polling places is facially unconstitutional? ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Politics, US – In Janus v. American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, Council 31, will the Supreme Court rule that mandatory payment of any agency fees by non-union government employees is unconstitutional? ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Politics, US – In Dalmazzi v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that Judge Martin Mitchell was disqualified to rule on Nicole Dalmazzi's appeal before the Air Force Court of Criminal Appeals? ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Politics, US – In Husted v. A. Philip Randolph Institute, will the Supreme Court rule that Ohio's supplemental process for voter registration list-maintenance is legal? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Politics, US – In Gill v. Whitford, will the Supreme Court rule that any part of Wisconsin's redistricting plan is an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander? ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Politics, US – In Carpenter v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that investigators' warrantless use of Timothy Carpenter's cellphone records was unconstitutional? ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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US, Politics – The “Fahrenheit 11/9” movie ranks 1st in its first week in theaters on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known on 2018-09-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Personal, Productivity – I spend a third hour cleaning or finish my cleaning backlog before 2018-10-19 23:00 UTC ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-19; known on 2018-10-19; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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LeVeon Bell will report at the bye week like he says he will, assuming he doesn't get traded ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-21; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-19.
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It costs $200 or less to fix my bike ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-04; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-19.
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It costs $100 or less to fix my bike ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-19.
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I get at least a raise of at least 9%. ( 30% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-10-10; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-10-19.
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One of my specs is screwed up ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-18; known on 2018-10-18; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-18.
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Charge cord doesn't reach ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-18; known on 2018-10-18; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-18.
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GC will be unable to provide legitimate receipts of an amount that exceeds £100k, to prove he has kept his GWWC pledge for at least 10% of his income ( 60% confidence )
Created by bendini on 2018-05-04; known on 2018-10-16; judged right by bendini on 2018-10-17.
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Personal, Productivity – I do my Anki cards for Neuroscience (both due and new cards for the day) before 2018-10-15 4:00 UTC. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-14; known on 2018-10-15; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-15.
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Politics, US – In South Dakota v. Wayfair, Inc., will the Supreme Court rule that a state may impose sales taxes on retail sales by firms that do not have a physical presence in the state? ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by Gurkenglas on 2018-10-14.
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Politics, US – In Trump v. Hawaii, will the Supreme Court rule on whether the September 2017 Presidential Proclamation on immigration violates or likely violates the Establishment Clause of the Constitution? ( 38% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by Gurkenglas on 2018-10-14.
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I move east of the Mississippi in 2018 ( 80% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-10-13.
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I do not become a card carrying democrat ( 90% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-10-13.
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Alex gets 100 on her quiz ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-10-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-11.