Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Still no first kiss before my 25th birthday. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-02; known on 2018-10-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-10-10.
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My baby will be walking independently by age 18 months ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2018-02-23; known on 2018-09-21; judged right by taryneast on 2018-10-10.
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My baby will be walking independently (first steps) by age 16 months ( 80% confidence )
Created by taryneast on 2018-02-23; known on 2018-07-21; judged right by taryneast on 2018-10-10.
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My baby will be walking independently (first steps) by age 14 months ( 55% confidence )
Created by taryneast on 2018-02-23; known on 2018-05-21; judged right by taryneast on 2018-10-10.
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My baby will be walking independently by age 12 months ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2018-02-23; known on 2018-03-21; judged wrong by taryneast on 2018-10-10.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] have a higher proportion of valid votes over registered voters than in 2014 (that was 72.8%) ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-09.
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Spice & Wolf season 3 will be released within 5 years. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-08; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-10-08.
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Politics, Brazil – Before 1 October 2018, will Brazil's Workers' Party nominate a candidate for president who is not Luiz Inàcio Lula da Silva? ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Politics, US – A new Supreme Court Justice is confirmed by the Senate before 6 November 2018. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-15; known on 2018-11-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Brazilians will elect Geraldo Alckmin as president in 2018 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by brunoarine on 2017-12-12; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[ Brazil's next president will be] A conservative like Ronaldo Caiado or Joao Amoedo ( 5% confidence )
Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-10-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[ Brazil's next president will be] A yet unknown outsider (Huck, Joaquim Barbosa, Meirelles, Doctor Rey, or other clown) ( 40% confidence )
Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-10-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Peter Thiel announces 2018 bid for California governorship ( 17% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-15; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[Brazil's next president will be] Lula ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lucasmafaldo on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[Brazil's next president will be] Ciro Gomes ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lucasmafaldo on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[Brazil's next president will be] Alckmin ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lucasmafaldo on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] have no state won by a candidate that finishes third or lower overall ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] require a runoff ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] have neither Lula da Silva nor Jair Bolsonaro win outright, and neither will advance to the runoff ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] either be won by Jair Bolsonaro in the first round or have him advance to the runoff ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Politics, US – Kavanaugh is confirmed to SCOTUS before the 7th of November 2018. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-29; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Chiron will win TCEC season 13 ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2018-09-06; judged wrong by Leo on 2018-10-06.
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Ethereal will win TCEC season 13 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2018-09-06; judged wrong by Leo on 2018-10-06.
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They fix my bike for free ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-05.
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Alex and Jenny will be home ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-05; known on 2018-10-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-05.
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We get kicked out of the hotel ( 10% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-04; known on 2018-10-04; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-04.
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We get asked to keep it down at the hotel ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-04; known on 2018-10-04; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-04.
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The hotel room has a big bathtub ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-02; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-03.
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The hotel room has a fridge ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-02; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-03.
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The hotel room has a king sized bed ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-02; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-03.
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They won't have milk at the business center ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-01; known on 2018-10-01; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-01.
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LSD: I will experience any kind of 'flashback' within 5 years. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2017-09-30; judged wrong by lazarus on 2018-10-01.
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LSD: I will experience any kind of 'flashback' within 5 years. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2017-09-30; judged wrong by lazarus on 2018-10-01.
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Atiyah's solution to the Riemann Hypothesis will have a HUGE flaw or make no sense whatsoever. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moyamo on 2018-09-22; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by moyamo on 2018-09-29.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] either be won by Lula da Silva in the first round or have him advance to the runoff ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-18.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] have Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-18.
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UK politics: general election called in next two months ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-09-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-10.
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UK politics: Leadership challenge against Theresa May within the next two months ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2018-07-10; known on 2018-09-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-10.
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The arch beside GEC-2 will get completed in the next 8 weeks ( 10% confidence )
Created by shardo on 2018-07-17; known on 2018-09-09; judged wrong by shardo on 2018-09-08.
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The arch beside GEC-2 will get completed in the next 8 weeks ( 10% confidence )
Created by shardo on 2018-07-17; known on 2018-09-09; judged wrong by shardo on 2018-09-08.
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Sangram will able to beat me at Blobby Volleyball in the next 50 days ( 80% confidence )
Created by shardo on 2018-07-23; known on 2018-09-11; judged wrong by shardo on 2018-09-08.
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Rex Tillerson (Rex Wayne Tillerson) will not be the United States Secretary of State before the end of 2018 ( 51% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-25; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-09-06.
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S's endo gives her a prescription for b or c ( 20% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2018-09-04; known on 2018-09-05; judged wrong by Somni on 2018-09-05.
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Milson Castro to beat Daniel Ucan Avila at Mayan Fight Night ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-10; judged right by Cato on 2018-09-04.
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Any candidate runs under the banner of the Party of Reason and Progress (PORP), at any level in the USA. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-14; known on 2018-11-06; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Any candidate runs under the banner of the Party of Reason and Progress (PORP), at any level in the USA. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-14; known on 2018-11-06; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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In hindsight, Uber valued at $40b will be identified as the one of key triggers of the 2014-2016 bubble. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-11-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Jimmy Carter to become the longest-living president in US History ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2018-03-16; judged right by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02.
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2nd US civil war over, bernie sanders brokers peace ( 2% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2018-05-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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bankendominoes starts again in the US OR massive bail-in in US occurs ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-07; known on 2018-05-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.