PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

World HDI for 2014 to be 0.690 or higher (0.682 in 2011). ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2015-12-01; judged right by btrettel on 2015-07-04.

“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” —Bill Gates ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-07; known on 2015-08-06; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.

World HDI for 2014 to be 0.690 or higher (0.682 in 2011). ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2015-12-01; judged right by btrettel on 2015-07-04.

Ebola has killed fewer than 1000 people in the US or Canada by November 2015 ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by LogicalOxymoron on 2014-11-22; known on 2015-11-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-01.

Will google's new javascript replacemant, “Dart”, have significant use in the next 3 years ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by drpowell on 2012-10-16; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by drpowell on 2015-10-23.

Ebola will be considered endemic in a year. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NancyLebovitz on 2014-10-14; known on 2015-10-14; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12.

“Within five years the Chinese government will have embarked on a major eugenics program designed to mass produce super-geniuses. (40%)” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2015-10-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-07.

“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” —Bill Gates ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-07; known on 2015-08-06; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.

Greece will default on it's sovereign debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both) ( 65% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by Afforess on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-11-12.

Greece and Eurozone will have found a compromise that favors Greece, by friday 3rd July. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aschberg on 2015-06-30; known on 2015-07-03; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-04.

P will be at contra tonight. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-07-03; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-07-04.

I will miss my train. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-07-03; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-07-02.

“Blade of Vengeance” will not move west of Penrith before mid 2015. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2014-02-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-07-02.

“Blade of Vengeance” will not move west of Penrith before mid 2015. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2014-02-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-07-02.

I will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 2Q 2015. This means finishing testing the code, optimizing, getting up to date data, and setting up the actual trading. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-07-02.

I will have finished the math prerequisites for third year physics by mid 2015. Specifically have studied and done the exercises from the differential equations, PDEs, fourier transforms and laplace transforms. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-07-02.

Weight down to 65 kg by end 2Q 2015. Currently 69.2 kg down from 82 kg. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-07-02.

I will have finished studying classical physics (Langrangian and Hamiltonian) by end 2Q 2015. IE studied and done the exercises from an appropriate text book. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-07-02.

I will be living in the Bay Area on or before July 1st of 2015, meaning I will have spent or am in the process of spending at least 8 weeks there. ( 90% confidence )

Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-07-01.

A MH370 blackbox recovered ( 15% confidence )

Created by procran on 2014-03-27; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-07-01.

In one year, an oz of marijuana will cost less than $150 (after taxes) in Colorado. ( 50% confidence )

Created by adbge on 2014-01-02; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-07-01.

I will not have sex before July first of next year (2015). ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by EliTyre on 2014-11-21; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-07-01.

EUR/USD above 1.10 at end of June. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Chri on 2015-04-12; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-07-01.

I will have a 4-6 pack before June 20th ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lumpzy on 2015-05-13; known on 2015-06-20; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-06-30.

PRI win the largest number of seats in the June legislative elections in Mexico. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-08; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-06-29.

The fad for 3d will turn out to be just that, a fad, and not vanish, but not really go anywhere either. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2015-06-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-28.

scientists won't have the same technology in “back to the future” in 2015 ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jeredcaleb on 2014-02-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by reubensandwich on 2015-06-28.

Justice Scalia votes to overturn Obergefell v. Hodges, in such a way that same-sex marriages can be performed in every U.S. state. ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by orthonormal on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2015-06-27.

Obergefell v. Hodges overturned by the Supreme Court, in such a way that same-sex marriages can be legally performed in every U.S. state. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by orthonormal on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by orthonormal on 2015-06-27.

US Supreme Court to rule in favor of gay marriage. ( 76% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-06-26.

King v. Burwell is decided for the government. ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by David on 2015-06-25.

Roberts votes with the majority on King v Burwell ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by David on 2015-06-25.

I will have at least two more papers submitted by June 25, 2015 ( 55% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-09; known on 2015-06-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25.

Amazon.com will break Amazon Web Services earnings out into it's own category in financial statements, rather than aggregating it into “other revenue”. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by quanticle on 2013-06-03; known on 2015-06-30; judged right by quanticle on 2015-06-25.

Y will be online when I check ( 85% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-06-25; known on 2015-06-25; judged right by RoryS on 2015-06-25.

I will have a new message when I check Facebook ( 50% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-06-25; known on 2015-06-25; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-25.

The car will get towed. ( 30% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-06-24; known on 2015-06-24; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-06-24.

I will have read at least 25 books during 2013. ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by azax1 on 2015-06-23.

HPMoR : ch 120 (or sooner): After understanding the death's place in evolution of life and mind, Harry would refuse become a Creator of the Words. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )

Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by David on 2015-06-23.

HP MOR: Events of ch 89 aren't what they appear to be. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by bt_uytya on 2013-07-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by David on 2015-06-23.

I will develop a cold / sore throat or related symptoms within a week after LWCW 2015 ( 30% confidence )

Created by jasticE on 2015-06-15; known on 2015-06-22; judged wrong by jasticE on 2015-06-22.

I will see someone I know at, or on the way to Pizza Express tomorrow ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-06-20; known on 2015-06-21; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-21.

Yale Effective Altruists will have at least ten active, non-graduating members at the end of this school year. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-08-20; known on 2015-05-15; judged right by aarongertler on 2015-06-21.

The Yale Record will generate at least $7000 in revenue this year (including donations) ( 62% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-08-20; known on 2015-05-31; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-06-21.

The Yale Record will generate at least $7000 in revenue this year (including donations) ( 62% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-08-20; known on 2015-05-31; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-06-21.

The Yale Record will make a profit of at least $1000 between September 1st, 2014 and June 1st, 2015, including alumni donations. ( 75% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-03-24; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-06-21.

I will vote Lib Dem in the election ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-19.

I will get a 1 in my degree ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-18; judged right by splorridge on 2015-06-18.

I will get a 2.1 or over in my degree ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-18; judged right by splorridge on 2015-06-18.

I will get a first in my degree. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by theboubmeister on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by theboubmeister on 2015-06-18.

Statistics

Judged Predictions