PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will participate in the Sydney Morning Herald Half Marathon on May 17 2015, completing the race before the cut-off time. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by TheEconomistofVengeance on 2014-05-29; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by waveman on 2015-06-01.

I will participate in the Sydney Morning Herald Half Marathon on May 17 2015, running a time of less than 2 hours. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by TheEconomistofVengeance on 2014-05-29; known on 2015-05-17; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-06-01.

bedycasa sera en cessation de paiement ( 60% confidence )

Created by ericlefevre on 2014-08-18; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by ericlefevre on 2015-06-01.

My friend Mr Agent will write more than 10 posts in the next 25 days, given that he committed to writing one every day. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-06; known on 2015-05-31; judged wrong by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-06-01.

My friend Mr Agent will write more than 10 posts in the next 25 days, given that he committed to writing one every day. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-06; known on 2015-05-31; judged wrong by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-06-01.

The Patriot Act will lapse at midnight tonight. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by orthonormal on 2015-06-01; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by orthonormal on 2015-06-01.

If M is any irreducible stationary Markov chain on the set of computable permutations of the natural numbers, then M is transient. ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by orthonormal on 2015-05-30; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by orthonormal on 2015-06-01.

Some set of scales plausibly says my mass is <=70kg at any time by 05:00 on Monday 1st June 2015 ( 55% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-31.

I will pass both an oral examination in comprehension of the german language, and the standard advanced mathematics written exam (college level). The direct consequences of failing either of these exams is a sum of approximately 1,250 USD ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by FourFire on 2015-03-07; known on 2015-05-31; judged wrong by FourFire on 2015-05-31.

I will know that Tim Shieff competed in the first series of Ninja Warrior UK by the time I finish watching it ( 38% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-31.

Tim Shieff completes his heat course in Ninja Warrior UK series 1 conditional on him competing ( 84% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-31.

Tim Shieff clears the heats of Ninja Warrior UK series 1 (i.e. makes semi-finals direct, by highest-scoring loser, etc.), conditional on him competing ( 82% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-31.

Arsenal will win the F.A Cup ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-05-30; known on 2015-05-30; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-30.

“Over the next ten years, we will make measurable global progress in all five areas of the human condition: food, access to clean water, health, education, and the price of energy.” ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2015-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2015-05-28.

I will be able to memorize a shuffled deck of cards (Doppelkopf deck, 48 cards) in less then 5min by the end of May. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Chri on 2015-04-07; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by Chri on 2015-05-28.

Warriors beat the Rockets ( 80% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-06-10; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-28.

Cavs beat the Hawks ( 60% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-06-10; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-27.

Couple of months after Blackrock Mountain release, Hearthstone meta will not be extremely biased towards aggro decks. Added: meaning “noticably less aggro than GvG meta” ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by timujin on 2015-03-26; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by VoidChronos on 2015-05-26.

AHA Sam missed his flight. ( 70% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-26; known on 2015-05-29; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-26.

The price of APEX will rise by midnight. ( 70% confidence )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-22; known on 2015-05-23; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-05-25.

See NB in da house 2 after one round of updating ( 59% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-25; known on 2015-05-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-25.

See NB in da house 2 ( 47% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-25; known on 2015-05-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-25.

Conditional on me feeling I have sufficient information to make a basic judgement, he had a dislocate in his hand ( 20% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-23; known on 2015-05-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-24.

I will play at least one game of chess with R.B.S. before we leave for New Haven. ( 55% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-22; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-23.

I have a confirmed fractured bone in my hand/wrist by or on 24/05 ( 25% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-05-19; known on 2015-05-25; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-05-23.

Either Chelsea, Man U, Man City or Arsenal will win the premier league ( 60% confidence )