Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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“I predict that California violent crime rates should rise about 4 percent relative to the rest of the U.S. over the next few years.” — Steven D. Levitt (http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/06/01/the-supreme-court-provides-a-dissertation-topic-for-a-budding ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Pavitra on 2011-06-16; known on 2017-06-17; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-06-25.
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I will start blogging after exams ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-17.
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Off Foxtrot by May 30, 2015. ( 89% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-25; known on 2015-05-30; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-06-17.
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The Spurs, Thunder or Cavs will win the championship. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-25; known on 2015-06-20; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-17.
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The Warriors won't win it all ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-06-19; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-17.
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Warriors beat the Cavs ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-05; known on 2015-06-19; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-17.
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Warriors beat the Cavs (update with game one outcome and Kyrie's injury known) ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-06; known on 2015-06-20; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-17.
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“I predict that California violent crime rates should rise about 4 percent relative to the rest of the U.S. over the next few years.” — Steven D. Levitt (http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/06/01/the-supreme-court-provides-a-dissertation-topic-for-a-budding ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Pavitra on 2011-06-16; known on 2017-06-17; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-06-25.
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The SNP will get the most seats in Scotland next General Election ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-04; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by splorridge on 2015-06-16.
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Labour will get the biggest share of the vote next election ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-13; known on 2015-06-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2015-06-16.
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Jeremy Corbyn will get on the Labour leadership ballot. ( 15% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-15; judged right by splorridge on 2015-06-15.
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[GoT] FTW won't happen in season 5. They will save that for next season. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-07; known on 2015-06-17; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-15.
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R+L=J to be explicitly referenced on screen by the end of Season 5 of Game of Thrones ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2015-05-28; known on 2015-06-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-15.
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[GoT] Cleganebowl in S05E10. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-17; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-15.
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Alastair will get a hangover from Emma May Ball ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-14; known on 2015-06-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2015-06-15.
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In the EA survey, at least 50% of non-student respondents will self-report that they donated at least 10% of their income in 2013. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-10-24; known on 2015-01-24; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2015-06-15.
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I will stick to Firefox as my default browser over Chrome. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-14.
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I will get someone's number through meeting them in a bookshop before I leave London ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-14.
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Charles Kennedy cause of death will seem to have been confirmed as suicide in 2015 (in my judgement if ambiguous or disputed) ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-14.
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I won't be able to finish the whole plate of brunch Sam is cooking for me ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Xtobel on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-13; judged wrong by Xtobel on 2015-06-13.
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I will go to Asheville with friends in December. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2014-11-25; known on 2014-12-20; judged right by memoriesofbutter on 2015-06-13.
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Get a 1 in Part II Astro ( 50% confidence )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-05-26; known on 2015-06-15; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2015-06-12.
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Get at least a 2:1 in Part II Astro. ( 90% confidence )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-05-26; known on 2015-06-15; judged right by ejlflop on 2015-06-12.
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My dad will smile when he sees me after coming back home for the summer ( 96% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-05; known on 2015-06-10; judged right by RoryS on 2015-06-12.
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At least one company in the 2014 YEI fellowship will raise $1 million within the next year. ( 60% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2015-06-12; judged right by aarongertler on 2015-06-12.
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SR: DPR will not be found guilty on charges of money laundering (or conspiracy to commit money laundering). ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-10-03; known on 2015-10-03; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-11.
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SR: Ross Ulbricht will not be found guilty on charges of narcotics trafficking (or conspiracy). ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-10-03; known on 2015-10-03; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-11.
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Apple will release their desktop OS as software only before 2015 ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-06-11.
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Deployments in the next 16 days will reduce the amount of Bellroy WIP (stories started and not yet accepted) down to 12 stories or less. ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mike on 2015-05-19; known on 2015-06-05; judged wrong by Mike on 2015-06-11.
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I will end up sleeping at A, B, and C's house before leaving London ( 10% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-09.
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A will make a move on me before I leave London this year ( 15% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-09.
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I will have sex in Sasha's room ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-06-15; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-09.
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I will end up at D's house before I leave London ( 40% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-09.
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By the August 1st /r/TheButton button will expire ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by VoidChronos on 2015-04-09; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by timujin on 2015-06-08.
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Our game will be playable when it is supposed to be ready ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by timujin on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by timujin on 2015-06-08.
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Created by timujin on 2015-05-27; known on 2015-06-07; judged right by timujin on 2015-06-08.
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I will have completed the first draft of my novel by June 7, 2015, my 58th birthday. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TheEconomistofVengeance on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-06-07; judged wrong by TheEconomistofVengeance on 2015-06-08.
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On 1st June the PM is a member of the Labour party ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-08.
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A party not in the government is whipped to back or abstain on the first Queens Speech of next parliament ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-13; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-08.
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[Pact web serial] Blake will not retake his position as Thorburn heir ( 70% confidence )
Created by sigmaleph on 2014-07-31; known on 2015-07-02; judged right by David on 2015-06-07.
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Barcelona will win the 2015 Champions League ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-06-06; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2015-06-06.
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Juventus will win the 2015 Champions League ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-06-06; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2015-06-06.
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I will get employed throughout May. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-05.
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Slatestarcodex will publish a reply to Ozy's piece within the next two weeks. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-06-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-04.
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That my wife will give birth to a baby girl ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-04.
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That Jayson will be employed in Az for his next job. ( 60% confidence )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-04.
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We will win ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-02; known on 2015-06-02; judged right by RoryS on 2015-06-02.
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KC by end of May ( 51% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-01.
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FC by end of May ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-01.
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SlateStarCodex blog response to https://srconstantin.wordpress.com/2015/05/04/values-affirmation-is-powerful/ on date in May 2015 according to date I see on the post if/when it exists ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-01.