Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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The kittens will still have giardia. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2009-10-24; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-11-10.
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I will bill 20+ hours the first week of November, 2009. ( 30% confidence )
Created by refragable on 2009-10-28; known on 2009-11-08; judged wrong by refragable on 2009-11-08.
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Someone will explain, in this prediction perhaps, how there are 623 known predictions in the statistics, but only 700 predictions sitewide, and there are way more than 100 unknown predictions. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-23; known on 2009-11-06; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-11-06.
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Democratic Party Candidate will not win Virginia gubernatorial election ( 91% confidence )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by freyley on 2009-11-05.
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Democratic Candidate will win New Jersey Gubernatorial Race ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-11-05.
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'Alcopop' to win Melbourne Cup (Australian horse racing) ( 17% confidence )
Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-11-03; judged wrong by mjgeddes on 2009-11-04.
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The Radiopaedia content cleanup will be finished by the end of the week ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Wes on 2009-10-26; known on 2009-10-30; judged right by Wes on 2009-11-03.
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Twitter.com is currently ranked 13 on Alexa. On October 31 at 7pm PST it will be ranked 13 or higher. (I've done nothing to investigate how rankings have been changing or how often.) ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ektimo on 2009-10-18; known on 2009-10-31; judged wrong by ektimo on 2009-11-03.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Volume 2: iphone App will sell 1000 copies in the first month ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Frank on 2009-09-22; known on 2009-11-01; judged wrong by Frank on 2009-11-02.
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I'll have made 100 predictions on prediction book by the end of the month ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-11-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-11-01.
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By Nov. 01, 2009, PB will stop silently truncating long prediction descriptions. Currently, there is no user feedback or indication that there is a length limit. The last part of the description just disappears after you subm ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-11-01; judged wrong by anonym on 2009-11-01.
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I will spend most of Friday (20%t) on PBook ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Glenn on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-23; judged wrong by anonym on 2009-11-01.
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Prediction Book will not have eliminated its performance problems by Nov. 1, 2009. Many page requests will still take more than 4 seconds to load. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-11-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-11-01.
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I will bill 15+ hours the week of 2009-10-25 to 2009-10-31. ( 50% confidence )
Created by refragable on 2009-10-28; known on 2009-11-01; judged wrong by refragable on 2009-11-01.
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More than half of my predictions will be private. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-31; judged right by jes5199 on 2009-10-31.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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I will have sql backups on all servers using new backup script by end of week. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jon on 2009-10-27; known on 2009-10-30; judged right by jon on 2009-10-30.
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I will have completed my topology homework by the end of the weekend. ( 60% confidence )
Created by im on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-19; judged wrong by im on 2009-10-29.
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I will be entirely caught up on grading by the end of the weekend. ( 85% confidence )
Created by im on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-19; judged wrong by im on 2009-10-29.
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Real soon now, there will be some public debate about whether PredictionBook is better suited to deal with personal-life type events or global-public-interest type events ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-29; judged wrong by jes5199 on 2009-10-29.
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I'll go 48 hours without caffeine in the next two weeks ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-29; judged wrong by jes5199 on 2009-10-29.
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Nagios will only contain legitimate errors/warnings by next friday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jon on 2009-10-16; known on 2009-10-23; judged wrong by jon on 2009-10-27.
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Radiopaedia work will be finalised (for now) by the end of the week ( 60% confidence )
Created by Wes on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-26; judged wrong by Wes on 2009-10-26.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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I will become the Maths & Philosophy MURC representative at the next MURC meeting ( 95% confidence )
Created by Larks on 2009-10-18; known on 2009-10-23; judged wrong by Larks on 2009-10-23.
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There will be more than 1000 PB predictions before Fri. Oct. 23, 2009. There are ~ 650 @ 6PM PDT, Sun. Oct. 18. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-24; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-10-23.
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The US Dollar will drop to 1.75 against the Brazilian Real by the end of October 2009. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by marcio on 2009-10-01; known on 2009-10-30; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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This prediction will receive an odd number of wagers before it expires in one hour's time. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by UnholySmoke on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-15; judged wrong by faws on 2009-10-22.
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The US Dollar will drop to 1.75 against the Brazilian Real by the end of October 2009. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by marcio on 2009-10-01; known on 2009-10-30; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The Portland Free Geek council meeting will not finish before 9:00pm tonight. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Martin Chase on 2009-10-21; known on 2009-10-22; judged right by Martin Chase on 2009-10-22.
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Martin and/or Shana will get sick enough to have to go to the doctor from eating the hedgehog mushroom Shana found. ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2009-10-22; judged wrong by Martin Chase on 2009-10-21.
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Martin and/or Shana will get sick enough to notice (upset stomach) from the Hedgehog mushroom Shana found. ( 14% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2009-10-22; judged wrong by Martin Chase on 2009-10-21.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Before Dec. 1, 2009, PB will change the UI to make it clearer that users should click “My 2 Cents” when entering a probability, regardless of whether they want to add a comment, and that they should not click the “Right” or “Wrong” judgment button. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-12-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-21.
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Before Dec. 1, 2009, PB will change the UI to make it clearer that users should click “My 2 Cents” when entering a probability, regardless of whether they want to add a comment, and that they should not click the “Right” or “Wrong” judgment button. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-12-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-21.
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Before Dec. 1, 2009, PB will change the UI to make it clearer that users should click “My 2 Cents” when entering a probability, regardless of whether they want to add a comment, and that they should not click the “Right” or “Wrong” judgment button. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-12-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-21.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Some group in Pakistan has already developed a super-intelligence (as of 2009). ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-20.
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The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. ( 83% confidence; 21 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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We will not have all American combat troops out of Iraq by next October. ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-20; known on 2010-10-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-02.